Opposition submits no-trust motion against PM Imran

[HAIDER]

Buzdar seems leaving. @Jango

 

[PakAlp]

PTI’s Aleem Khan likely to join PML-N soon: sources

LONDON: Prime Minister Imran Khan’s close aide and former Punjab minister Aleem Khan is likely to join PML-N soon, well-placed sources revealed Friday.Aleem Khan had met PML-N supremo Nawaz...

www.google.com

PML-N leader confirms Aleem Khan, Nawaz Sharif meeting in London

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) leader Javed Latif has confirmed the report of ARY News regarding the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)

arynews.tv

Aleem Khan meets PML-N supremo Nawaz Sharif in London - Daily Times

The meeting between the two leaders lasted for over three hours which was attended by former finance minister Ishaq Dar and Nawaz's sons Hasan and Hussain.

dailytimes.com.pk

 

[Jango]

Buzdar seems leaving. @Jango

Oh he most certainly does, and for good I think.

The more important thing is, who is the next CM, and if it is before elections or after?

PTI’s Aleem Khan likely to join PML-N soon: sources

LONDON: Prime Minister Imran Khan’s close aide and former Punjab minister Aleem Khan is likely to join PML-N soon, well-placed sources revealed Friday.Aleem Khan had met PML-N supremo Nawaz...

www.google.com

PML-N leader confirms Aleem Khan, Nawaz Sharif meeting in London

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) leader Javed Latif has confirmed the report of ARY News regarding the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)

arynews.tv

Aleem Khan meets PML-N supremo Nawaz Sharif in London - Daily Times

The meeting between the two leaders lasted for over three hours which was attended by former finance minister Ishaq Dar and Nawaz's sons Hasan and Hussain.

dailytimes.com.pk

The Chaudharies made it clear he isn't acceptable to them, so did the Tarin group. He made a last ditch effort to go to Jahangir Tarin himself and persuade him to support his nomination for CM, but looks he refused too and now he is going to N-league.

Is banday ki daal kaheen nhn galni.
N-league will also put him on the back burner, since Punjab isn't their focus right now.

If the govt succeeds in NA, then PML-Q and Tarin group will support PTI (if it goes through with changing Buzdar for another PTI man).

There will then be no chance for Aleem anyways.

What a pathetic turn of events.

Phir log kehte hain keh across the board accountability karo. Jab karo, to phir agay yeh hota hai keh apnay hi blackmail karna shuru kar dete hain. Koi banda kia karay ab aisay mulk main?

 

[Jango]

My analysis of the whole situation:

1- The PTI will look to the speaker to discard votes of PTI members in the assembly. They are already discussing this option in public and within themselves. Now, the law says that the member can be disqualified after voting or abstaining. But PTI and some independent (no one actually is independent in this country, just look at senator Kamran Murtaza) lawyers are of the view that the spirit of the law is to discourage horse trading, and it can only be removed if the speaker takes pre-emptive action.

In the other case, where the speaker takes action after the act, phir no confidence ho jaye, then the whole process to disqualify a member takes 5 months. Utni der main PM ghar chala jaye ga, to phir tab kisi action ka khak fayeda hoga? That would make no difference.

IMO, the law does kind of say that action to be taken after a vote is cast. But then, the spirit of the law does indeed work to ban horse trading, and in this way it would be upheld. I am not a lawyer, so would be nice to get some legal opinion here.

2- PTI is looking pretty confident, so they do have some sort of a basis for that. The opposition is all gloomy at the moment. Perhaps PTI has got some opposition members on it's side? Or maybe their own members aren't defecting? Or they are banking on the speaker discarding the votes of PTI members.

3- The PMLQ and MQM is in the bag for PTI. They are only making statements just to remain relevant and increase their political clout. Had PMLQ taken the PDM offer before, to make Pervez Elahi as CM, then things could have been different. But PMLQ was trying to play both sides, and in the end is left hunting for scraps. Then, the animosity between N and Q isn't helping things either. I believe now PMLQ has no option to remain with the govt, unless it has clear indications that a large number of PTI members have defected or PTI will be defeated. Because no one wants to be on the losing side.

4- Tarin group is also voting for PTI, since Buzdar is getting changed.

5- Aleem Khan is irrelevant.

6- The establishment is with PTI. I cannot fathom the establishment not being with PTI, especially when N league was openly accusing and abusing the army leadership. If it does choose to side with the opposition, then there would be resentment within the ranks, keh koi bhi banda khulay aam galiyan day de fauj ko, to us ko kuch nhn kaha jaye ga and instead they will be supported. Moreover, Fazlus comments regarding 'islahat' won't sit too well either. The support might not be as brazen as before, but it will be there. Me personally, I also support the establishments intervention in this case. Only because votes from the other side are being bought for 20 crore and more. If it was a fair process, then of course the establishment should remain in its home. But it's a dirty game on both sides.

Also, as some PTI ministers and journalists have said, everyone has evidence, including the establishment of the foreign hand. Now, this could be true, US has a history of supporting such moves, and why the heck else would the US Charge d' Affairs meet Fazlu, Bilawal, Maryam, Shahbaz, and Hamza? When they haven't met a single government official? I can't see the establishment supporting such an action, especially considering the history between them and N league.

7- The establishment also does not want things to be messed up close to the OIC conference and with all other foreign policy measures taking place.

8- So what will happen? The PTI will ask the speaker to discount votes, and they will be discounted. In case there is a sizeable number of defections, then speaker will discard all of them, and the opposition will definitely go to court. The ball would then be in the court's hands. And this would be a case of first impression. So would be interesting to see the arguments.

9- All in all, I do not think the PTI is going. Establishment will also support PTI, and if the move fails, then IK will go full tilt on the opposition, because there's no going back now.

10- If the opposition chooses not to go to the courts and instead goes to the streets or hangamay, then martial law zindabad.

Wow that was a long read. Thoughts?

 

[PakAlp]

5- Aleem Khan is irrelevant.

He has the support of 15 MPAs.

Oh he most certainly does, and for good I think.

The more important thing is, who is the next CM, and if it is before elections or after?



The Chaudharies made it clear he isn't acceptable to them, so did the Tarin group. He made a last ditch effort to go to Jahangir Tarin himself and persuade him to support his nomination for CM, but looks he refused too and now he is going to N-league.

Is banday ki daal kaheen nhn galni.
N-league will also put him on the back burner, since Punjab isn't their focus right now.

If the govt succeeds in NA, then PML-Q and Tarin group will support PTI (if it goes through with changing Buzdar for another PTI man).

There will then be no chance for Aleem anyways.

What a pathetic turn of events.

Phir log kehte hain keh across the board accountability karo. Jab karo, to phir agay yeh hota hai keh apnay hi blackmail karna shuru kar dete hain. Koi banda kia karay ab aisay mulk main?

Even CM Punjab Usman Buzdar stated Aleem Khan is unacceptable. Best would be to make someone neutral like Parvaiz Elahi so Buzdar and Tareen are ok with it.

 

[Flight of falcon]

My analysis of the whole situation:

1- The PTI will look to the speaker to discard votes of PTI members in the assembly. They are already discussing this option in public and within themselves. Now, the law says that the member can be disqualified after voting or abstaining. But PTI and some independent (no one actually is independent in this country, just look at senator Kamran Murtaza) lawyers are of the view that the spirit of the law is to discourage horse trading, and it can only be removed if the speaker takes pre-emptive action.

In the other case, where the speaker takes action after the act, phir no confidence ho jaye, then the whole process to disqualify a member takes 5 months. Utni der main PM ghar chala jaye ga, to phir tab kisi action ka khak fayeda hoga? That would make no difference.

IMO, the law does kind of say that action to be taken after a vote is cast. But then, the spirit of the law does indeed work to ban horse trading, and in this way it would be upheld. I am not a lawyer, so would be nice to get some legal opinion here.

2- PTI is looking pretty confident, so they do have some sort of a basis for that. The opposition is all gloomy at the moment. Perhaps PTI has got some opposition members on it's side? Or maybe their own members aren't defecting? Or they are banking on the speaker discarding the votes of PTI members.

3- The PMLQ and MQM is in the bag for PTI. They are only making statements just to remain relevant and increase their political clout. Had PMLQ taken the PDM offer before, to make Pervez Elahi as CM, then things could have been different. But PMLQ was trying to play both sides, and in the end is left hunting for scraps. Then, the animosity between N and Q isn't helping things either. I believe now PMLQ has no option to remain with the govt, unless it has clear indications that a large number of PTI members have defected or PTI will be defeated. Because no one wants to be on the losing side.

4- Tarin group is also voting for PTI, since Buzdar is getting changed.

5- Aleem Khan is irrelevant.

6- The establishment is with PTI. I cannot fathom the establishment not being with PTI, especially when N league was openly accusing and abusing the army leadership. If it does choose to side with the opposition, then there would be resentment within the ranks, keh koi bhi banda khulay aam galiyan day de fauj ko, to us ko kuch nhn kaha jaye ga and instead they will be supported. Moreover, Fazlus comments regarding 'islahat' won't sit too well either. The support might not be as brazen as before, but it will be there. Me personally, I also support the establishments intervention in this case. Only because votes from the other side are being bought for 20 crore and more. If it was a fair process, then of course the establishment should remain in its home. But it's a dirty game on both sides.

Also, as some PTI ministers and journalists have said, everyone has evidence, including the establishment of the foreign hand. Now, this could be true, US has a history of supporting such moves, and why the heck else would the US Charge d' Affairs meet Fazlu, Bilawal, Maryam, Shahbaz, and Hamza? When they haven't met a single government official? I can't see the establishment supporting such an action, especially considering the history between them and N league.

7- The establishment also does not want things to be messed up close to the OIC conference and with all other foreign policy measures taking place.

8- So what will happen? The PTI will ask the speaker to discount votes, and they will be discounted. In case there is a sizeable number of defections, then speaker will discard all of them, and the opposition will definitely go to court. The ball would then be in the court's hands. And this would be a case of first impression. So would be interesting to see the arguments.

9- All in all, I do not think the PTI is going. Establishment will also support PTI, and if the move fails, then IK will go full tilt on the opposition, because there's no going back now.

10- If the opposition chooses not to go to the courts and instead goes to the streets or hangamay, then martial law zindabad.

Wow that was a long read. Thoughts?

Excellent analysis except the martial law part. I believe IK will easily win the no confidence vote. Many members of opposition will simply not show up . This will save them from disqualification as they technically did not vote opposite the party line. Just like PPP chair of senate failed to show up for the crucial vote last time and couldn't cover three hour drive in the eight hour warning he got!!!

If things get really really ugly new elections will be called but martial law chance is zero.

He has the support of 15 MPAs.


Even CM Punjab Usman Buzdar stated Aleem Khan is unacceptable. Best would be to make someone neutral like Parvaiz Elahi so Buzdar and Tareen are ok with it.

Yes but he has no MNA in his pocket . He is dirtier than used diaper. Good riddance. Most opportunists in his group are just waiting to see which way the wind blows. These lotas will switch loyalties in a second. PML has pretty much given up on Tarin......here is a cryptic warning of loyalists to their leader saanp sahib....dont deal with these traitors.

ترین اور علیم کا پارٹی فیصلوں میں کردار نہیں ہوگا، احسن اقبال

مسلم لیگ نون کے سیکرٹری جنرل احسن اقبال کا کہنا ہے کہ جہانگیر ترین اور علیم خان کا مسلم لیگ نون کی فیصلہ سازی میں کوئی کردار نہیں ہوگا

jang.com.pk

 

[Jango]

He has the support of 15 MPAs.

I have read that those MPA's would also step back from their support once Buzdar gets replaced.

Excellent analysis except the martial law part. I believe IK will easily win the no confidence vote. Many members of opposition will simply not show up . This will save them from disqualification as they technically did not vote opposite the party line. Just like PPP chair of senate failed to show up for the crucial vote last time and couldn't cover three hour drive in the eight hour warning he got!!!

If things get really really ugly new elections will be called but martial law chance is zero.

Keh kar to saray new elections ka hi atay hain

For the government it is pretty easy, just don't have the opposition members show up.

For the opposition though, they have to persuade govt members to defect, that's a much more serious move.

 

[SIPRA]

For the government it is pretty easy, just don't have the opposition members show up.

Abstention, from voting, against the direction of Party, is also basis of disqualification.

 

[Mr.Green]

Situation is in a flux. IK has said only Janwar is neutral. I IK thinking copying Trumps attack on Washington. PPP holding counter jalsa.

 

[N.Siddiqui]

Abstention, from voting, against the direction of Party, is also basis of disqualification.

This law or article doesn't apply on the coalition partners, isn't it. This is where the problem lies. Like PMLQ MQM and BAP and some others(independent cand.) need to come up and validate their allegiance to the PTI in public, TV presser.

 

[SIPRA]

This law or article doesn't applies on the coalition partners, isn't it. This is where the problem lies. Like PMLQ MQM and BAP and some others(independent cand.) need to come up and validate their allegiance to the PTI in public, TV presser.

Right. MNAs of the coalition partners are required to follow the direction of their own respective Parliamentary leaders.

 

[Jango]

Abstention, from voting, against the direction of Party, is also basis of disqualification.

Oh, I stand corrected.

 

[RealNapster]

Then they need to vote for change or shut the fcuk up

Electing the same trash over and over and over again and then complaining is the sign of a moron

Ye Jo shaghoor or enlightenment hamy election Kay baat aati kaash election se pehle or election waly din b Ajay to hamary 90% masly khud he solve ho jay

 

[HAIDER]

Oh he most certainly does, and for good I think.

The more important thing is, who is the next CM, and if it is before elections or after?



The Chaudharies made it clear he isn't acceptable to them, so did the Tarin group. He made a last ditch effort to go to Jahangir Tarin himself and persuade him to support his nomination for CM, but looks he refused too and now he is going to N-league.

Is banday ki daal kaheen nhn galni.
N-league will also put him on the back burner, since Punjab isn't their focus right now.

If the govt succeeds in NA, then PML-Q and Tarin group will support PTI (if it goes through with changing Buzdar for another PTI man).

There will then be no chance for Aleem anyways.

What a pathetic turn of events.

Phir log kehte hain keh across the board accountability karo. Jab karo, to phir agay yeh hota hai keh apnay hi blackmail karna shuru kar dete hain. Koi banda kia karay ab aisay mulk main?

What you think, if establishment will make move to save IK govt. I think Imran Khan wants to leave he is not interested in saving his govt. PMLQ and MQM is fully blackmailing the govt.

 

[imadul]

My analysis of the whole situation:

1- The PTI will look to the speaker to discard votes of PTI members in the assembly. They are already discussing this option in public and within themselves. Now, the law says that the member can be disqualified after voting or abstaining. But PTI and some independent (no one actually is independent in this country, just look at senator Kamran Murtaza) lawyers are of the view that the spirit of the law is to discourage horse trading, and it can only be removed if the speaker takes pre-emptive action.

In the other case, where the speaker takes action after the act, phir no confidence ho jaye, then the whole process to disqualify a member takes 5 months. Utni der main PM ghar chala jaye ga, to phir tab kisi action ka khak fayeda hoga? That would make no difference.

IMO, the law does kind of say that action to be taken after a vote is cast. But then, the spirit of the law does indeed work to ban horse trading, and in this way it would be upheld. I am not a lawyer, so would be nice to get some legal opinion here.

2- PTI is looking pretty confident, so they do have some sort of a basis for that. The opposition is all gloomy at the moment. Perhaps PTI has got some opposition members on it's side? Or maybe their own members aren't defecting? Or they are banking on the speaker discarding the votes of PTI members.

3- The PMLQ and MQM is in the bag for PTI. They are only making statements just to remain relevant and increase their political clout. Had PMLQ taken the PDM offer before, to make Pervez Elahi as CM, then things could have been different. But PMLQ was trying to play both sides, and in the end is left hunting for scraps. Then, the animosity between N and Q isn't helping things either. I believe now PMLQ has no option to remain with the govt, unless it has clear indications that a large number of PTI members have defected or PTI will be defeated. Because no one wants to be on the losing side.

4- Tarin group is also voting for PTI, since Buzdar is getting changed.

5- Aleem Khan is irrelevant.

6- The establishment is with PTI. I cannot fathom the establishment not being with PTI, especially when N league was openly accusing and abusing the army leadership. If it does choose to side with the opposition, then there would be resentment within the ranks, keh koi bhi banda khulay aam galiyan day de fauj ko, to us ko kuch nhn kaha jaye ga and instead they will be supported. Moreover, Fazlus comments regarding 'islahat' won't sit too well either. The support might not be as brazen as before, but it will be there. Me personally, I also support the establishments intervention in this case. Only because votes from the other side are being bought for 20 crore and more. If it was a fair process, then of course the establishment should remain in its home. But it's a dirty game on both sides.

Also, as some PTI ministers and journalists have said, everyone has evidence, including the establishment of the foreign hand. Now, this could be true, US has a history of supporting such moves, and why the heck else would the US Charge d' Affairs meet Fazlu, Bilawal, Maryam, Shahbaz, and Hamza? When they haven't met a single government official? I can't see the establishment supporting such an action, especially considering the history between them and N league.

7- The establishment also does not want things to be messed up close to the OIC conference and with all other foreign policy measures taking place.

8- So what will happen? The PTI will ask the speaker to discount votes, and they will be discounted. In case there is a sizeable number of defections, then speaker will discard all of them, and the opposition will definitely go to court. The ball would then be in the court's hands. And this would be a case of first impression. So would be interesting to see the arguments.

9- All in all, I do not think the PTI is going. Establishment will also support PTI, and if the move fails, then IK will go full tilt on the opposition, because there's no going back now.

10- If the opposition chooses not to go to the courts and instead goes to the streets or hangamay, then martial law zindabad.

Wow that was a long read. Thoughts?

Too long but I read most ...
Only option looks like is play legal card, to bar/disqualify PTI members from voting. Speaker can do that. This will then go to SC and all that bickering but no co confidence shall fail.
Conditions will be difficult though, but that can give IK the opportunity to discover assembly and go for new elections.
This situation is becauae Imran Khan took one two many wrong decisions .