Opinionated - Could China invade the USA?

[Ziggy1977]

Could China invade or attack the USA? without going to war or attacking US forces in Japan or ROK.

and by invade. i mean take Guam, Palua, Micronesia, Wake, Johnston & Marshall islands. alaska, Hawaii or even land forces on the USA's West coast?

China Current Power Projection Forces Capabilities are limited both on the sea and in the air. and almost non existed on the Ground.

Ocean going Major Naval Forces
2 Carriers (combined can carry max 36-48 Fighter jets & 34 Helicopters)
1 Type 055 Guided Missile Cruiser (CGHM) +7 that are almost ready for service
15 Type 052D Guided Missile Destroyers (DDGHM) +10 that are almost ready for Service
8 Type 052C Guided Missile Destroyers (DDGHM)
2 Type 052B Guided Missile Destroyers (DDGHM)
2 Type 052 Guided Missile Destroyers (DDGHM)
0 Type 051C Guided Missile Destroyers (DDGM) (2 just retired)
1 Type 051B Guided Missile Destroyers (DDGHM)
1 Sovremenny 3 Guided Missile Destroyers (DDGHM)
2 Sovremenny 2 Guided Missile Destroyers (DDGHM)
1 Sovremenny 1 Guided Missile Destroyers (DDGHM)
30 Type 054A Guided Missile Frigates (FFGHM)
2 Type 054 Guided Missile Frigates (FFGHM)
7 Type 053H3 Guided Missile Frigates (FFGHM)
4 Type 051G Guided Missile Frigates (FFGM)
0 Type 053H2 Guided Missile Frigates (FFG) (1 Just retired)
0 Type 053H1G Guided Missile Frigates (FFG) (6 Just retired)
3 Type 053H1 Guided Missile Frigates (FFG)
81 total Ships +26 = 107 Ships

Amphibious Warfare Ships
0 Yushen Landing Helicopter Docks (LHD) +2 almost ready [60 Helicopters]
7 Yuzhao Landing Transportation Docks (LPD) +1 almost ready [480 tank/AIFV/APC, 6400 Troops & 32 Helicopters]
7 total plus 3 = 10 [480 Vehicles, 6400 troops & 92 Helicopters]

Landing Ships
33 LST [49 Tank/AIFV/APC & 6500 Troops]
31 LSM [310 Tank/AIFV/APC & 7750 Troops]
64 total ships [359 Vehicles & 14,250 Troops]

Total Amphibious ground forces max 839 Tank/AIFV/APC, 20,250 Troops & 92 Helicopters = 5 Combat Brigades



PLA Air Forces & PLAN Ground based forces
18 Aerial Fuel Tankers (PLAAF/PLAN)
82 Heavy & Medium Transport Planes (2 Brigades air dropped at a time)
14 Electronic Warfare planes
17 ELINT planes
3 ISR Planes
31 AEW&C2 Planes
164 H-6s Bombers

Jet Fighters
40 J20 (Advance)
97 SU30MKK/MK2 (Modern)
24 SU35 (Modern)
100 J16 (Modern)
52 SU27SK/UBK (Capable)
297 J11/B/BS (Capable)
248 J10s (Capable but old)
172 J8s (Hopeless)
512 J7s (Hopeless)
1542 Total Jet fighters

260 JH-7 Ground Attack


Airborne Corp & Amphibious Ground Forces
6 Airborne Brigades
2 Air Assault Brigades
11 Amphibious Brigades
1 Amphibious Mechanized Brigade
20 Combat Maneuver Brigades

1 Logistic Brigade
1 Combat Aviation Brigade (8 Attack helicopters)

173 Light Tanks (ZTQ-15, ZTD-05)
400 IFV (ZTL-11, ZBL-08, ZBD-03)

80 Self Propelled Artillery
120 Towed Artillery
54 Multiple Rocket Launchers
254 Indirect Fire Systems


Naval Outlook
China would have to move it's navy away from the protection of it land based anti ship/jet defense and leave it huge coastal Defense patrol ships. and would face the USN in the open ocean. with it lack of Carrier based Fighters, AEWC & EW assets. they would be committing suicide. and once the navy gone so is it chance to invade Guam.

Aerial Outlook
China total lack of allied bases and aerial Refueling Capabilities would mean it air Forces would be nearly nonexistent and the few that could would be out numbered and destroyed.

Ground Forces Outlook
can not do anything till the Air/Naval part of conflict is won or lost. at best 25,000 soldiers could be a 1st wave (Amphibious+ Air dropped). and each wave after would need to be smaller on account of logistics needed to sustain them and follow on forces.

Overall
at this point or even anytime in the near to mid future China doesn't have the capability to project forces to invade even Guam.

China current Forces are configured force Defense of China. it offensive abilities are limited to land invasions of Russia, India and other land based countries and possible land/sea invasion of ROK. but it's lack of amphibious and airborne capabilities make it hard to invade even Taiwan and impossible to invade Japan in offensive operations.

it only real way of attacking the USA is missile strikes. but even here most of it conventional missiles have limited range.

China is not a Military threat to the USA. it is a Economic & Geopolitical Threat to the USA in not only the Pacific/Asia but the world. Which is more important then Military power.

Chin will surpass the USA in economic and then as the main Geopolitical power even if it never surpasses or even has the ability to attack/invade the USA conventional. and for real that all that matters.

the Germany Empire Military Forces in 1867 was more powerful the the UK. but the UK because of it Economic, Geopolitical, Navy & English channel was the most dominant power in the world. unless something internally happens. China will be the worlds most dominant nation. and they can do it without firing a shot or fighting a war.

and that the long game the leaders in China are planning

Post your thoughts

 

[Figaro]

Japan did not even have any concrete plans to invade Hawaii in World War II ... the furthest they got was Midway and the Aleutians. The Chinese should already be very happy if they manage to project power past the third island chain in the intermediate future. But definitely, what we are seeing is them attempting to match the USN ship for ship, both quantity and quality wise, and perhaps even go further. The qualitative improvements in their attack subs are the most dangerous components since we have very little intel about them and hence we can only assume they are very quiet (the upcoming 09V class). People are too fixated on the Chinese surface modernization/threat whereas the place they should be really worried out is their undersea fleet.

 

[Feng Leng]

The order will be: Taiwan, Japan, Australia.

After that, I think we would enter into alliances with Latin America and eventually post PLA in Mexico. From Mexico, we will take the West coast and eventually move into Alaska. The Rocky Mountains will be the LAC.

 

[cloud4000]

Are nuclear weapons part of this calculation? Maybe people are taking the game of Risk too seriously.

 

[KAL-EL]

Are nuclear weapons part of this calculation? Maybe people are taking the game of Risk too seriously.

Of course not!

Remember,This is PDF, where everything is like a fantasy land and not related to the real world in any way.

The nuclear weapons will just disappear like magic.

 

[patero]

Are nuclear weapons part of this calculation? Maybe people are taking the game of Risk too seriously.

Maybe the PLA could invade North America, withdraw and leave one soldier behind and claim they just wanted a risk card.

This clip sums things up nicely:

 

[Figaro]

Are nuclear weapons part of this calculation? Maybe people are taking the game of Risk too seriously.

Nuclear weapons make everything too boring.

 

[Ziggy1977]

Japan did not even have any concrete plans to invade Hawaii in World War II ... the furthest they got was Midway and the Aleutians. The Chinese should already be very happy if they manage to project power past the third island chain in the intermediate future. But definitely, what we are seeing is them attempting to match the USN ship for ship, both quantity and quality wise, and perhaps even go further. The qualitative improvements in their attack subs are the most dangerous components since we have very little intel about them and hence we can only assume they are very quiet (the upcoming 09V class). People are too fixated on the Chinese surface modernization/threat whereas the place they should be really worried out is their undersea fleet.

oh snap.

I forgot to post their Submarine forces. the problem with China Submarine forces again is a lack of Range for it Diesel powered submarines. and forward bases.

1 type 095 Nuclear powered Attack Submarine (SSN)
10 type 093 Nuclear powered Attack Submarines (SSN)
3 type 091 Nuclear powered Attack Submarines (SSN) (reserve) old old tech
18 Yuan Diesel powered Attack Submarines (SSK)
12 Song Diesel powered Attack Submarines (SSK)
6 Ming Diesel powered Attack Submarine (SSK) plus 8 more in reserve.
12 Kilo Diesel powered Attack Submarines (SSK)
62 total Subs

once again China has a 1st rate military. the problem is power projection.

and the issue is logistic and distance. Guam alone is more then 2100 nm away. china would a way to not only defeat the USN out in the deep ocean. but would also need to find away to land ground forces for the invasion and then be able to supply them.

once again. I didn't use nukes because then there would be a lot of dead and it would be pointless.

my point isn't that China doesn't have a great military. it is that people never look at how terrain/distance effects a military planning and execution.

China currently is clearly building up it forces. but even with this. if you look at it structure. it a defensive force. when looking to face the USA. the lack of Aerial Refueling, the anti Chinese nations (Japans, ROK, Taiwan) block China from having land based bases. which would greatly hampers their ability to project forces.

now a future military alliance with the Philippines. Allowing bases there would change things.

But like i said China doesn't need to go to war with the USA. they just need to keep doing what they are doing. improving their military. while doing good economic and geopolitical moves.

even with 6 aircraft carriers they would be greatly outclassed in the open sea. the USA huge Aerial refueling fleet and bases in the pacific allows them to have overwhelming air and naval forces in a defense war.


Now on the flip side the USA couldn't win a invasion of china because of logistics and the size and abilities of Chin defensive forces.

But the USA could do more damage to China coast line then China could do to the USA. because of it forward bases and long range Aerial refueling.

 

[Figaro]

oh snap.

I forgot to post their Submarine forces. the problem with China Submarine forces again is a lack of Range for it Diesel powered submarines. and forward bases.

1 type 095 Nuclear powered Attack Submarine (SSN)
10 type 093 Nuclear powered Attack Submarines (SSN)
3 type 091 Nuclear powered Attack Submarines (SSN) (reserve) old old tech
18 Yuan Diesel powered Attack Submarines (SSK)
12 Song Diesel powered Attack Submarines (SSK)
6 Ming Diesel powered Attack Submarine (SSK) plus 8 more in reserve.
12 Kilo Diesel powered Attack Submarines (SSK)
62 total Subs

once again China has a 1st rate military. the problem is power projection.

and the issue is logistic and distance. Guam alone is more then 2100 nm away. china would a way to not only defeat the USN out in the deep ocean. but would also need to find away to land ground forces for the invasion and then be able to supply them.

once again. I didn't use nukes because then there would be a lot of dead and it would be pointless.

my point isn't that China doesn't have a great military. it is that people never look at how terrain/distance effects a military planning and execution.

China currently is clearly building up it forces. but even with this. if you look at it structure. it a defensive force. when looking to face the USA. the lack of Aerial Refueling, the anti Chinese nations (Japans, ROK, Taiwan) block China from having land based bases. which would greatly hampers their ability to project forces.

now a future military alliance with the Philippines. Allowing bases there would change things.

But like i said China doesn't need to go to war with the USA. they just need to keep doing what they are doing. improving their military. while doing good economic and geopolitical moves.

even with 6 aircraft carriers they would be greatly outclassed in the open sea. the USA huge Aerial refueling fleet and bases in the pacific allows them to have overwhelming air and naval forces in a defense war.


Now on the flip side the USA couldn't win a invasion of china because of logistics and the size and abilities of Chin defensive forces.

But the USA could do more damage to China coast line then China could do to the USA. because of it forward bases and long range Aerial refueling.

I agree. The Chinese conventional sub force is mainly for defensive purposes and as such won't stray too far from the Chinese coastline, even though they have AIP. The real threat is from the Chinese 09V class, which is said to be already under construction and perhaps even near being operational. Considering the Chinese latest 093 class already has reached the noise level of the 688i (improved LA class) quite some time ago, then it is very likely that the 09V will reach noise levels comparable to that of the Seawolf/Virginia class. This will be the biggest danger to the USN by far, especially in the initial stages of war, when the conflict is far from the Chinese shore.

And indeed one of the major weak points of the Chinese air force is the lack IFR capacity. However with the production of the Y-20U tanker (a tanker version of the Y-20 transport), this capacity would be massively increased anyway, just like the PLAAF transport capacity following the Y-20 induction. Here is a good read on that.

Transport & Tanker

China Air Force

chinese-military-aviation.blogspot.com

 

[LeGenD]

Thread title edited.

Short answer: NO

 

[Ziggy1977]

I agree. The Chinese conventional sub force is mainly for defensive purposes and as such won't stray too far from the Chinese coastline, even though they have AIP. The real threat is from the Chinese 09V class, which is said to be already under construction and perhaps even near being operational. Considering the Chinese latest 093 class already has reached the noise level of the 688i (improved LA class) quite some time ago, then it is very likely that the 09V will reach noise levels comparable to that of the Seawolf/Virginia class. This will be the biggest danger to the USN by far, especially in the initial stages of war, when the conflict is far from the Chinese shore.

And indeed one of the major weak points of the Chinese air force is the lack IFR capacity. However with the production of the Y-20U tanker (a tanker version of the Y-20 transport), this capacity would be massively increased anyway, just like the PLAAF transport capacity following the Y-20 induction. Here is a good read on that.

Transport & Tanker

China Air Force

chinese-military-aviation.blogspot.com

the problem is still the same china got less then 30 of them. and most are transports not fuelers. but even if they converted all of them that not no were near enough. the usa has over 500.

 

[Beast]

Could China invade or attack the USA? without going to war or attacking US forces in Japan or ROK.

and by invade. i mean take Guam, Palua, Micronesia, Wake, Johnston & Marshall islands. alaska, Hawaii or even land forces on the USA's West coast?

China Current Power Projection Forces Capabilities are limited both on the sea and in the air. and almost non existed on the Ground.

Ocean going Major Naval Forces
2 Carriers (combined can carry max 36-48 Fighter jets & 34 Helicopters)
1 Type 055 Guided Missile Cruiser (CGHM) +7 that are almost ready for service
15 Type 052D Guided Missile Destroyers (DDGHM) +10 that are almost ready for Service
8 Type 052C Guided Missile Destroyers (DDGHM)
2 Type 052B Guided Missile Destroyers (DDGHM)
2 Type 052 Guided Missile Destroyers (DDGHM)
0 Type 051C Guided Missile Destroyers (DDGM) (2 just retired)
1 Type 051B Guided Missile Destroyers (DDGHM)
1 Sovremenny 3 Guided Missile Destroyers (DDGHM)
2 Sovremenny 2 Guided Missile Destroyers (DDGHM)
1 Sovremenny 1 Guided Missile Destroyers (DDGHM)
30 Type 054A Guided Missile Frigates (FFGHM)
2 Type 054 Guided Missile Frigates (FFGHM)
7 Type 053H3 Guided Missile Frigates (FFGHM)
4 Type 051G Guided Missile Frigates (FFGM)
0 Type 053H2 Guided Missile Frigates (FFG) (1 Just retired)
0 Type 053H1G Guided Missile Frigates (FFG) (6 Just retired)
3 Type 053H1 Guided Missile Frigates (FFG)
81 total Ships +26 = 107 Ships

Amphibious Warfare Ships
0 Yushen Landing Helicopter Docks (LHD) +2 almost ready [60 Helicopters]
7 Yuzhao Landing Transportation Docks (LPD) +1 almost ready [480 tank/AIFV/APC, 6400 Troops & 32 Helicopters]
7 total plus 3 = 10 [480 Vehicles, 6400 troops & 92 Helicopters]

Landing Ships
33 LST [49 Tank/AIFV/APC & 6500 Troops]
31 LSM [310 Tank/AIFV/APC & 7750 Troops]
64 total ships [359 Vehicles & 14,250 Troops]

Total Amphibious ground forces max 839 Tank/AIFV/APC, 20,250 Troops & 92 Helicopters = 5 Combat Brigades



PLA Air Forces & PLAN Ground based forces
18 Aerial Fuel Tankers (PLAAF/PLAN)
82 Heavy & Medium Transport Planes (2 Brigades air dropped at a time)
14 Electronic Warfare planes
17 ELINT planes
3 ISR Planes
31 AEW&C2 Planes
164 H-6s Bombers

Jet Fighters
40 J20 (Advance)
97 SU30MKK/MK2 (Modern)
24 SU35 (Modern)
100 J16 (Modern)
52 SU27SK/UBK (Capable)
297 J11/B/BS (Capable)
248 J10s (Capable but old)
172 J8s (Hopeless)
512 J7s (Hopeless)
1542 Total Jet fighters

260 JH-7 Ground Attack


Airborne Corp & Amphibious Ground Forces
6 Airborne Brigades
2 Air Assault Brigades
11 Amphibious Brigades
1 Amphibious Mechanized Brigade
20 Combat Maneuver Brigades

1 Logistic Brigade
1 Combat Aviation Brigade (8 Attack helicopters)

173 Light Tanks (ZTQ-15, ZTD-05)
400 IFV (ZTL-11, ZBL-08, ZBD-03)

80 Self Propelled Artillery
120 Towed Artillery
54 Multiple Rocket Launchers
254 Indirect Fire Systems


Naval Outlook
China would have to move it's navy away from the protection of it land based anti ship/jet defense and leave it huge coastal Defense patrol ships. and would face the USN in the open ocean. with it lack of Carrier based Fighters, AEWC & EW assets. they would be committing suicide. and once the navy gone so is it chance to invade Guam.

Aerial Outlook
China total lack of allied bases and aerial Refueling Capabilities would mean it air Forces would be nearly nonexistent and the few that could would be out numbered and destroyed.

Ground Forces Outlook
can not do anything till the Air/Naval part of conflict is won or lost. at best 25,000 soldiers could be a 1st wave (Amphibious+ Air dropped). and each wave after would need to be smaller on account of logistics needed to sustain them and follow on forces.

Overall
at this point or even anytime in the near to mid future China doesn't have the capability to project forces to invade even Guam.

China current Forces are configured force Defense of China. it offensive abilities are limited to land invasions of Russia, India and other land based countries and possible land/sea invasion of ROK. but it's lack of amphibious and airborne capabilities make it hard to invade even Taiwan and impossible to invade Japan in offensive operations.

it only real way of attacking the USA is missile strikes. but even here most of it conventional missiles have limited range.

China is not a Military threat to the USA. it is a Economic & Geopolitical Threat to the USA in not only the Pacific/Asia but the world. Which is more important then Military power.

Chin will surpass the USA in economic and then as the main Geopolitical power even if it never surpasses or even has the ability to attack/invade the USA conventional. and for real that all that matters.

the Germany Empire Military Forces in 1867 was more powerful the the UK. but the UK because of it Economic, Geopolitical, Navy & English channel was the most dominant power in the world. unless something internally happens. China will be the worlds most dominant nation. and they can do it without firing a shot or fighting a war.

and that the long game the leaders in China are planning

Post your thoughts

You analysis is full of error. If second largest navy in the world can't have projection overseas or beyond it's shore 4000km -5000km away. I don't know who is the next most suitable candidate.

Finally , PLAAF did have aerial refuel capability.

 

[Ziggy1977]

You analysis is full of error. If second largest navy in the world can't have projection overseas or beyond it's shore 4000km -5000km away. I don't know who is the next most suitable candidate.

Finally , PLAAF did have aerial refuel capability.

i pointed out they have aerial refueling. but it not enough is the point. to understand what i mean. the USA has over 700 Aerial refueling planes. and they have a vast network of allies that allow them to use their countries for bases and staging area. China has none of that going towards the USA.

and correct they have the good navy with great Destroyers, Frigates. but their current Jump jet carriers greatly hurt their ability to project their forces far vs the USA. also their lack of allies for forward bases also hurt that ability. they would have to either make a military alliance with the Philippines (Allow large bases) or defeat/conquer (Taiwan/Japan/Philippines) so they can have large bases there.

China current Naval forces are clearly built as a Defensive forces. they are now working on expanding their offensive capabilities. STOBAR Carriers are used for fleet defense and local air supremacy. not power projection/deep strike missions. Now China is upgrading to CATOBAR type Carriers (building 2). These will allow them to expand their power projection power.

remember currently once the PLAN leaves more then 1800nm away from China they will have almost no PLAAF air support. none of their vast coastal ships nor most of their ground base anti ship missile will help them.

remember the US 7th/3rd Fleets alone have
6 Virginia (SSGN)
2 Ohio (SSGN)
19 LA (SSGN)
3 Seawolf (SSN)

5 Aircraft Carriers (CVN) (combined 200 Fighters, 25 EW Jets, 25 AEWC planes, 60 ASW hel, 60 MR Hel)
2 Landing Helicopter Assault (LHA) (combined 40 Fighters, 14 ASW Hel, 36 MR Hel)
4 Landing Helicopter Docks (LHD) (combined 160 Fighters, 16 ASW Hel, 52 MR Hel)
12 Guided Missile Cruisers (CGHM) (24 Hel)
39 Guided Missile Destroyers (DDGHM/DDGM) (78 Hel)
2 Guided Missile Frigates (FFGHM) (4 Hel)
11 Guided Missile Frigates (FFHM) (22 Hel)
75 Total Ships. 400 Fighters, 90 ASW Hel,

the AEWC and EW planes would be the difference in the open ocean. Giving the USN vastly better intel/situation awareness.

and because of the USA's huge Aerial Refueling and it islands in the pacific it would have large air bases set up for the defense of Guam. which would also mean more Ground Base ASW, AEWC, ELINT, ISR, C2 Planes, Bombers (armed with Cruise Missiles) and more fighters.

now on the flip side. If the USA attacked China it could do more damage to china coast. and possibly embargo Chinese shipping. but it couldn't invade and win on mainland China. and anything more then missile attacks on China's coast would be paid for in heavy US losses.

neither side could attack and invade and have success. the USA could do more damage to China. but that only because of Allies bases, and long range aerial Capabilities.

 

[khansaheeb]

Chinese would invade USA if US relaxed immigration and allowed Visas and green cards.

 

[Figaro]

the problem is still the same china got less then 30 of them. and most are transports not fuelers. but even if they converted all of them that not no were near enough. the usa has over 500.

Well the Chinese have shown a capability to crank these Y-20s out in massive numbers (there are over 40 Y-20 transports now and counting). I'm sure they can do it with their tanker force as well. But in the short term, the Chinese will never match the US in comparable tanker numbers, but I believe that is one of the highest priorities for their air force right now.

You analysis is full of error. If second largest navy in the world can't have projection overseas or beyond it's shore 4000km -5000km away. I don't know who is the next most suitable candidate.

Finally , PLAAF did have aerial refuel capability.

He is not saying the PLAN does not have power projection, he is saying that it is currently limited due to the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd island chains with a massive USN presence and many US bases. Do you really think the PLAN would project power against the US 4000 km away when the nearest US presence is just several hundred kilometers away? But the Chinese are definitely increasing their power projection that is for sure.