Opinion
Business as usual
Owen Bennett-Jones
Wednesday, July 09, 2014
A few months ago there were three questions causing tensions between the army and the government. First, would the government continue its futile dialogue with the Taliban or would it support a military offensive in North Waziristan? Second, would Nawaz Sharif persist with his policy of improving relations with India? And third, would the government really try to put General Musharraf in prison?
Two of those issues have now been resolved. For all the political theatre with Modi and despite the gifts for each other’s mothers, Sharif now knows that he will not be able to improve relations with India.
He – like Zardari before him – had hoped that substantially increasing cross-border trade would be the easiest way to rapidly lift living standards for significant numbers of people. And no doubt it would do that. But the army blocked Zardari, it is blocking Sharif and no one expects the situation to change.
And even if the army did suddenly see the benefits of improved relations with Delhi, the prime minister would not be able to deliver the policy because India will not reciprocate unless Pakistan arrests and puts on trial the people who managed the Mumbai attack. And no one expects that to happen.
On the issue of the North Waziristan campaign Sharif bit the bullet, went to the National Assembly and spoke in favour of the army offensive. Many officers hoped for more. How is it, they asked, that Sharif and his ministers rushed down to Karachi to be at the bedside of Hamid Mir when they couldn’t be bothered to be similarly attentive of senior officers killed and injured in the fighting?
It’s a fair question. While defenders of press freedom needed to be seen standing by Hamid Mir, it’s only reasonable to think that the government should show a similar degree of interest in soldiers defending the country from the Taliban. But the issue is of more of an irritation than a potential cause of a deep breach.
Which leaves the issue of General Musharraf. It’s now pretty clear that, if he can, Nawaz Sharif will have his revenge and put Musharraf behind bars. The prime minister has played his hand well, not making any public statements about the case. Instead, he has watched and waited as the judges do their work. Then, whenever the case seems to be moving towards the moment that Musharraf can leave the country, he gently intervenes to put a spanner in the works.
It is causing growing frustration with the army. When Musharraf was first arrested there was a view in the military that the man who once led Pakistan had become deluded and was the author of his own problems. The army had repeatedly advised him not to come back to Pakistan. He ignored that advice and returned anyway. So, many officers said, he was like any other politician and the government could treat him as such.
That view has changed: the army is now treating the Musharraf issue as having symbolic importance: to imprison him would be to insult the army.
Sharif may eventually have to choose between the continued existence of his government and putting Musharraf in prison. And when that time comes there is every reason to believe that he will decide in favour of his remaining in power. Having spent some time in Attock Fort he will have no desire to repeat the experience.
But on this question Nawaz Sharif is playing a long game and will wait until there really is no other option but to let Musharraf go.
For the moment, with the exception of the Musharraf issue, the military has the politicians pretty much where it wants them. And it’s not just the politicians. The whole Geo saga enabled the army to give a brutal warning to the press – step out of line and, even if you have the support of the government, we can close you down.
The only thing the army lacks now is a political alternative to Nawaz Sharif. That was supposed to be Imran Khan’s job but he has proved too unpredictable. The latest idea – of putting Tahirul Qadri forward – is clearly not viable as he lacks anything approaching a political base.
A couple of years ago it really seemed as if alternative power centres were emerging which could hold the politicians and even the military to account. The Supreme Court and the media- - for all their excesses –- were succeeding in annoying those in power on a fairly regular basis. The last few months have seen the pendulum swing back in favour of the military.
The army relies on one argument above all others. That at a time of national crisis it is the only force that holds the country together and should consequently be given the room it needs to operate. If you sit within the army it is a view that makes complete sense. But what officers fail to see is that of you are outside the army (and looking in) you see an institution that has repeatedly broken the law in grabbing power, consumed vast budgets, built more nuclear weapons than the country could ever need, made deals with militants and stuck to a Kashmir policy than can never succeed. Combined, these problems have held back the country’s development.
And so it goes on. It’s business as unusual with the politicians and officers regarding each other with mutual distrust.
The writer is a freelance British journalist, one of the hosts of BBC’s Newshour and the author of the new political thriller, Target Britain.
Twitter: @OwenBennettJone
Email:
bennettjones@hotmail.com
