Opinion
The militant landscape
Dr Farrukh Saleem
Sunday, November 23, 2014
Capital suggestion
On April 4, 1996, Mullah Mohammed Omar Mujahid declared himself Amir-ul-Momineen or Commander of the Faithful. Osama bin Mohammed bin Awad bin Laden, the founder of Al-Qaeda, had personally sworn oath of allegiance, bay’ah, to Mullah Omar. The entire Afghan Taliban leadership had sworn bay’ah to Mullah Omar. The entire TTP leadership had also sworn bay’ah to Mullah Omar. In 2011, Dr Ayman Zawahiri, the current emir of Al-Qaeda, renewed his bay’ah to Mullah Omar.
On June 29, 2014, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil) announced the establishment of a caliphate, the Islamic State (IS), with Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi al-Qurashi al Husseini as Amir-ul-Momineen or Commander of the Faithful (Mullah Omar remained the undisputed Commander of the Faithful for eighteen long years).
Since the establishment of the Islamic State two very important events have taken place. First, on September 3, Ayman al-Zawahiri announced the establishment of Qaedat al-Jihad in the Indian Subcontinent or Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) with the aim of taking on the “governments of Pakistan, India, Myanmar and Bangladesh”.
Second, on October 10, half a dozen TTP commanders swore “allegiance to Amir-ul-Momineen and Caliph of the Muslims, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, to listen and obey, in enthusiasm and reluctance, and in ease and hardship.”
The commanders who swore allegiance are: Omar Khalid Khorasani Commander TTP Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (Mohmand), Hafiz Saeed Commander TTP Orakzai, Daulat Khan Commander TTP Kurram, Fateh Zaman Commander TTP Kyber, Mufti Hasan Swati Commander TTP Peshawar and Khalid Mansoor Commander TTP Hangu.
The three most important issues here are: One, there can only be one Amir-ul-Momineen at any given point in time. Two, the breaking of bay’ah is an extremely serious act and can be considered akin to treason. Three, the Wagah border suicide attack that killed 60 was claimed by the Jamaat-ul-Ahrar.
The militant landscape in the Subcontinent is changing-changing fast. The TTP, as a consequence of Operation Zarb-e-Azb, is fractured. Militants in our immediate region are internally divided and splinter groups are breaking previous bay’ah and forming new alliances. The structure as well as the hierarchy of individual militant groups is undergoing change.
There is evidence that Al-Qaeda is losing traction in South Asia and the IS is gaining ground. From an intelligence standpoint, keeping a lid on a fractured TTP will be more challenging than before. Ideologically, the IS is even further right of Al-Qaeda. As far as military strategy is concerned, Al-Qaeda has been more into terrorist undertakings while the IS is more into capturing and holding physical terrain.
The probability is that Al-Qaeda and its remaining Subcontinental allies will try to prove that they are still relevant by sponsoring more spectacular terrorist attacks. The TTP has long been considered as a militant group with regional ambitions. No more.
Will there be a confrontation between Al-Qaeda and the IS? Only time will tell. Overall, the South Asian militant landscape is becoming more complicated and ever more alarming.
For the record, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is becoming more and more relevant not just in Pakistan’s vicinity but around the world. For the record, Obama’s Democratic Party lost mid-term elections partly because Obama failed to put forward an effective strategy to bring down Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad. Email:
farrukh15@hotmail.com
Twitter: @saleemfarrukh
