Op Grp: What Drives American Policies and Strategic Aims in the Region?

[Irfan Baloch]

This is the approach I am very much against. Like I mentioned in many Balochistan related threads that the solution is within not outside Pakistan. Looking for resolution by dealing with outsiders is not a long term solution. Its like putting a hand on a wound and not dressing and treating it.

The issue is internationalized because the problems are genuine and they stem from our very own mentality of passing the time and hoping that the things will correct themselves but sadly they don’t. re USA we have nothing better to offer to USA in order to convince it to stop supporting the anti-state elements and actually plan on something so outrageous and outlandish that can have far reaching effects on all Pakistani neighbours on the western side. We lack the leadership, vision and political will to address our problems so whatever we offer to Americans will be seen with suspicion or brushed aside.

America is a hard sell and with a very hard nosed true capitalistic empire it will see whats in it for it (more) by being friendly towards Pakistan re its future designs in the region rather than simply putting things in motion that will create a new country out of the 3 countries that will be inherit a leadership totally in debt and gratitude of the Americans. So Americans will get any sign off they want be it bases, unrestricted access to natural resources, sole rights to the Sea and land routes and of course military bases to keep all countries in check. A good part of it is already achieved so a Pakistan totally out of China’s camp is not much of an attraction.

On the other hand, if we are able to produce and elect a leadership that can actually address the grievances of all the provinces in general and Balochistan in particular then it’s a win win situation for us. The key regarding Balochistan is not just appeasing the loudest of the groups and going overboard like the present government which is actually begging the terrorist leaders. But actually remembering the total makeup of the whole Balochistan. Giving it full autonomy to exploit the natural resources and proving the funding & expertise necessary for these projects from the centre and letting it run its affairs locally including development, education, healthcare, law and order and assisting where appropriate. Bringing the disenchanted Baloch public back into the mainstream but dealing the terrorists with a very firm hand and relentlessly perusing them within and outside Balochsitan and seeking international assistance and diplomatic cooperation in this regard.

The main focus must not be lost. it’s the people of Balochistan not the ones in America or Europe that need to be appeased. West cant care less what are the Baloch misgivings and what are their demands. It wont even remember its name and existence once its done with the region. The geopolitical situation is very unpredictable and the focus can shift very quickly and we will be left with an even more hostile and displeased population once the West moves out abandoning us yet again. America and Europe will deal very favorably if it sees a firm and capable Pakistani leadership that presents a stable Pakistan that is attractive to do business with.

I repeat, solution is not by offering bases to Americans and abandoning China and becoming hostile to Iran. They are our neighbors and here to stay. Same cant be said about Americans specially their “friendship”. we are in no better shape to make a deal that is favourable to us. We might end up with the same situation like we are in WoT where we have lost 30K+ people suffered billions worth of losses and still regarded with suspicion and hostility and a constant target of Western smite campaign .

 

[Jango]

A capable leadership will be a win win situation for whole of Pakistan, not only for Balochistan, and hence giving a chanc for everybody to appreciate the resources of the Province even more

 

[VCheng]

What Drives American Policies and Strategic Aims in the Region?


By Irfan Baloch

Ah, finally an article from the haloed OpGrp!

Since the end of Second World War America has been constantly in a state of war. This strategy of endless war justifies the existence of its massive war industry. Nationalistic or religious unrest is fomented in its areas of “interest” followed by moving in as a “savior”, with or without a UN “mandate”. For far too many decades, the American policy has been to think a few steps ahead of its current actions when it selects a region for its focus.

Firstly: USA has not been in a constant state of war, and has maintained its defense budget in proportion to its GDP per capita basis, even reducing it as needed, for example, the end of the Cold War.

Secondly: You fail to recognize that nationalistic movements arise locally primarily due to failure of the government to meet the aspirations of its own people, not because USA wishes it to be so, for example, the recent Arab Spring, or USSR, or Yugoslavia.

Thirdly: If you concede that USA as a superpower thinks "several steps ahead" as a matter of policy, then how can you claim later in your article that "American policy suffers from severe myopia" for Baluchistan?

In the hearing of the Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations of the US House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs held on February 8, 2012, the American designs on this region were brought into the open. What was before routinely dismissed as a conspiracy theory has now been clarified: “Let's stick it to the Pakistanis”.

No, that is wrong. The comment "Let's stick it to the Pakistanis" was attributed to C Christine Fair, not by the Subcommittee, and certainly not by any member of the US government. That certainly has no bearing on US policy in the region.

The basis of the American approach

As if Balkanization of Pakistan is not enough, a few American hawks are willing to up the ante by carving out chunks from Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan to make what they call “Greater Balochistan”. This new American ally would ensure that the sea lanes through the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea to the South Pacific remain unchallenged and under its control.

The larger picture is that this would eventually help them in isolating, containing and restraining China.

The current setbacks against Taliban are merely a nuisance for the Americans.

Firstly: Having Baluchistan as a separate country would still leave Iran and the Sind coast of remaining Pakistan as close to the Persian Gulf oil lanes as now. If China loses Gwadar, there is still Karachi. Furthermore, India still is separated from Afghanistan.

Secondly: China is too big and powerful to be affected by controlling access through the KKH, which is a merely seasonal, arduous and capacity limited pathway to the Arabian Sea, totally insufficient to meets China's growing needs. (It is, however, an important link for Pakistan, no doubt.). Closure of the Malacca Strait and the Timor, Philippine and East China Seas is a more fruitful way to physically constrain China, if that were the goal. Although, it should also be kept in mind that in the 21st century, the war will be more in the stock market, space and cyberspace than those geographical regions.

The region is ready for their next move: There is ample unrest. Iran is isolated and crippled under sanctions. It has hostile Sunni Arabs on its western side and an Afghanistan occupied by hostile American forces on its eastern side. Pakistan’s economy and law and order are in shambles, due to inept government and the American War on Terror.

But you fail to show how breaking off Baluchistan would, should, or could be the next move, given what has been presented above.

With this single goal in mind, the American policy suffers from severe myopia. For now it doesn’t matter for policy-makers if:
- The Committee leaders holding the hearings and presenting resolutions calling for an independent Balochistan can even pronounce the name properly.
- The Committee Congressmen have enough insight about the people, its politics and geographical makeup; or
-The Baloch diaspora originating from Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran have enough influence over their Congressmen. (If so, it would be welcome and can be used to legitimize America’s intervention.);

USA policy is what matters, not the accents, pronunciation or public display in a congressional hearing. Flippantly dismissing any portion of the process that goes into the formal policy is a grave mistake.

The American approach is wrong


........................

The myth of discrimination

..................

The peaceful solution


...................

The rest of your article then deal with better ways to take Baluchistan forward, which I can leave for another time, but for now, I would like to take the discussion forward with the counter-points presented above.

 

[MastanKhan]

This is the approach I am very much against. Like I mentioned in many Balochistan related threads that the solution is within not outside Pakistan. Looking for resolution by dealing with outsiders is not a long term solution. Its like putting a hand on a wound and not dressing and treating it.

The issue is internationalized because the problems are genuine and they stem from our very own mentality of passing the time and hoping that the things will correct themselves but sadly they don’t. re USA we have nothing better to offer to USA in order to convince it to stop supporting the anti-state elements and actually plan on something so outrageous and outlandish that can have far reaching effects on all Pakistani neighbours on the western side. We lack the leadership, vision and political will to address our problems so whatever we offer to Americans will be seen with suspicion or brushed aside.

America is a hard sell and with a very hard nosed true capitalistic empire it will see whats in it for it (more) by being friendly towards Pakistan re its future designs in the region rather than simply putting things in motion that will create a new country out of the 3 countries that will be inherit a leadership totally in debt and gratitude of the Americans. So Americans will get any sign off they want be it bases, unrestricted access to natural resources, sole rights to the Sea and land routes and of course military bases to keep all countries in check. A good part of it is already achieved so a Pakistan totally out of China’s camp is not much of an attraction.

On the other hand, if we are able to produce and elect a leadership that can actually address the grievances of all the provinces in general and Balochistan in particular then it’s a win win situation for us. The key regarding Balochistan is not just appeasing the loudest of the groups and going overboard like the present government which is actually begging the terrorist leaders. But actually remembering the total makeup of the whole Balochistan. Giving it full autonomy to exploit the natural resources and proving the funding & expertise necessary for these projects from the centre and letting it run its affairs locally including development, education, healthcare, law and order and assisting where appropriate. Bringing the disenchanted Baloch public back into the mainstream but dealing the terrorists with a very firm hand and relentlessly perusing them within and outside Balochsitan and seeking international assistance and diplomatic cooperation in this regard.

The main focus must not be lost. it’s the people of Balochistan not the ones in America or Europe that need to be appeased. West cant care less what are the Baloch misgivings and what are their demands. It wont even remember its name and existence once its done with the region. The geopolitical situation is very unpredictable and the focus can shift very quickly and we will be left with an even more hostile and displeased population once the West moves out abandoning us yet again. America and Europe will deal very favorably if it sees a firm and capable Pakistani leadership that presents a stable Pakistan that is attractive to do business with.

I repeat, solution is not by offering bases to Americans and abandoning China and becoming hostile to Iran. They are our neighbors and here to stay. Same cant be said about Americans specially their “friendship”. we are in no better shape to make a deal that is favourable to us. We might end up with the same situation like we are in WoT where we have lost 30K+ people suffered billions worth of losses and still regarded with suspicion and hostility and a constant target of Western smite campaign .

Irfan,

You don't know how to pickup leaders my man-----in this small place---you can't do it over here my brother----how can you get competent to manage the staes and the nation. The managers over here have a convuluted vision of how to get a leader for this board---and these guys are the most enlightened, educated and visionaries. And if these guys can falter so badly over here where the things can be dictated---ain't going to happen otherwise.

My brother----from where are you going to elect the leadership---when you have none around---you have not saacrificed enough to get honest men to lead you----you have not spilt enough blood to have men with cleaner and honest souls---you have not killed enough corrupt and criminal element to ask to deserve a better man to lead----. I mean to say---this is the only gene pool that you have---and whatever it has produced lately in the past---where is the hope---from where are you going to get a different breed of men.

You don't even have men who can sit across the table and talk to white men---one on one, while looking them in the eye, keeping a smile on their faces and giving and taking at the same time.

You people don't want to make sacrifices---but you want democracy----you want honesty---but you can't spill blood----you want justice----but you cannot lope off someone's head off----you want safety for your women and children---but you cannot persecute and execute those gang raping them----.

Irfan Baloch---my brother---there is only one way to purify the soul of the nation of its sins committed against its citizens---every nation has paid this price----it is just like death----which every man woman child and every living soul has to face one day---every nation will have to embrace its day of judgement to get out of the way of ordinary and under achieving and corruption and tyrrany and lawlessness.

 

[Irfan Baloch]

Vcheng I empathize with your comments defending USA and admire your patriotism but if a picture speaks a thousand words then look below and decide for yourself if my comments regarding the constant expansion of American Empire were valid or not

I dont want to take it any further. lets not be so defensive over it and own it like the proud people of the American south that your economy is a war economy and it needs fuel to feed itself which needs the funds and the playground to function.

I understand and see the evidence of American policy working on a classical empire the concept is same just the tools have evolved. My criticism over American policy towards this region is their over simplification in defining the Balochistan issue. Whether it is out of ignorance or outright arrogance I don’t know and I don’t want to waste time on this.

I have already stated that if America thinks that supporting the most vocal and violent element within Balochistan will help it towards its strategic objectives then it is bad news for us people who are going to suffer because of the initial chaos but also that such policy is flawed due to the complex ethnic makeup and aspirations of the different people within what is touted as Greater Balochistan by the NeoCons.
Yes militarily there will be not much of a resistance there but the resulting mess will be even worse than Falugah and Sunni triangle of Iraq and will be at the scale of 3 countries.

I intended to keep the focus mainly on a part of my country and share with the people which is commonly missed out. I just gave the pointers towards American designs I don’t intend to explain every single step of their move to ultimately achieving their long term goals because that’s beyond the scope of the thread. Just a hint that any empire will find it very “helpful” if there is already some unrest and law and order situation wherever it intends to put things in motion that remove the hurdles in its path.

A stable unified and China friendly Pakistan is a hurdle for America, hence this so called Balochistan debate and sudden attention to Baloch dissidents.

 

[Irfan Baloch]

Good exposition, thanks.

Few questions:

1. Do you think Baluchistan is Plan B for the US, just in case permanent bases in Afghanistan can't be negotiated, or is there a longer term plan in addition to keeping forces in Afghanistan?

2. Why are the sardars able to block federal development programs? Can't the federal govt. go ahead and build infrastructure or does it need the sardars' permission?

3. Wouldn't granting autonomy backfire and give more power to the sardars? Shouldn't our aim be to empower the local population and remove the sardars' power as middlemen?

1. yes I think so. I think its in parallel to Afghan bases and they will support each other. the Chinese route to Gawader is through Pakistan and in order to cut it, Balochistan must become new American playground.

2. the lack of will and corruption and secondly its mostly the same Baloch elite who are supposed to oversea it and hence it never happens the way it is intended. the examples in Sindh and Punjab are also not very glowing either although both provinces have had major share in the power.

3. yes I am referring to empowering of people and encouraging true representatives of Balochistan. not the tried and tested chieftains who will sell their loyalties to the highest bidders as they have been doing for centuries. their mentality is pretty much the same even before Pakistan and the British Empire. A backward and angry Balochistan suits them just fine.

 

[FaujHistorian]

....

A stable unified and China friendly Pakistan is a hurdle for America, ....

This is hilarious if not audacious statement.

Pakistani leftist and socialists have been making such statements with no proof whatsoever.

China-friendly Pakistan. What does that mean anyways? In real terms. Nothing! Zilch! Nada! not worth 2 taka.

How many $billions China is making from Pakistan? Now contrast that to $trillions being made from China-US trade.

Do Chinese feel safe and secure in Pakistan? Heck no. Not individually and absolutely not on corporate level.

Geographically Pakistan is no hedge for China if it comes to war with America. One tooti phooti KKH, that can be made unusable in no time?

In summary, China cannot and will not invest in Pakistan, will not use Pakistan as a hedge against USA, and will not rely on KKH for any overland massive transportation of weapons from Wah factory into Chinese West.

So what do China get from Pakistan on geo-strategic basis?

The only thing China has in Pakistan is to occasionally use us against India. But my braatheray-watan, that stuff is long gone, but Pakistanis still want to live in the 1960s.

China has marched on from 1960s and it will be good if our intellectual hazrat move on too.

Now let me point to the dark side of Pakistani relations with China. No it is not Xinjiang's troubles exported from Pakistan. No it is not that.

The true dark side of Pak-China "so-called PHREND-ship" is China's absolute opposition to possible future gas export via TAPI, or TAP-Gawader.

I suspect this is one of the major reasons China pulled out of Gawader project as well. China never wanted to invest in something that would come back to bit its a$$ literally if Gawader becomes an export terminal for Turkman gas.


Bottom line. Every country in the world thinks about its benefits first. Exceptions are the rabidly poor countries like Pakistan where intellectuals give 2 hoots to the reality and live in this khawabi duniya made up by their own cold-warrior minds.


American doesn't care about our relations with China. What it cares about is how we relate to Afghanistan.


peace.


ps. Irfan sahib. Nothing personal. We are just discussing ideas. Thank you.

 

[VCheng]

....................
I understand and see the evidence of American policy working on a classical empire the concept is same just the tools have evolved. My criticism over American policy towards this region is their over simplification in defining the Balochistan issue. Whether it is out of ignorance or outright arrogance I don’t know and I don’t want to waste time on this.

As I tried to point out, you did not clarify the basic flaw in your argument: A big bad empire that ruthlessly dominates the world on one hand and yet is so stupid all of sudden that it does not know what to do in Baluchistan on the other? Come now, does that make sense at all?

I have already stated that if America thinks that supporting the most vocal and violent element within Balochistan will help it towards its strategic objectives then it is bad news for us people who are going to suffer because of the initial chaos but also that such policy is flawed due to the complex ethnic makeup and aspirations of the different people within what is touted as Greater Balochistan by the NeoCons.......................

America does not think that supporting an insurgency in Baluchistan will help it. Clearly, its strategic goals are best met with Pakistan as a partner, but Pakistan is failing to rise up to the level of co-operation required.

I intended to keep the focus mainly on a part of my country and share with the people which is commonly missed out. I just gave the pointers towards American designs I don’t intend to explain every single step of their move to ultimately achieving their long term goals because that’s beyond the scope of the thread. ..............

I will follow your lead in focusing the thread where you intend, but please allow me to say once again that you have not been able to establish that your pointers regarding US policies in the region are valid.

A stable unified and China friendly Pakistan is a hurdle for America, hence this so called Balochistan debate and sudden attention to Baloch dissidents.

Again, the struggle for future supremacy between China and USA is so large that Pakistan, important as it is for the region and the 180 million people in it, is only a very small part of the global picture.

No disrespect, but please note that your arguments are erroneous in greatly over-estimating Pakistan's importance to both China and USA in regards to their global dominance issues. It is not your fault, for you are limited to seeing the world from a very limited perspective by training that belongs to the last century, and still has not caught up with the realities of the present time, let alone the future.

 

[Irfan Baloch]

@FaujHistorian
I am strictly talking in terms of national interests. not making a vs trade comparison with USA of china and / or Pakistan.

yes its national interests that have brought Pak-China together economically and militarily. if you cant see any physical investments between them then spelling them out for you is a time waster.

lets not get off topic. just remember that target is china containment and Pakistan is in the way and Balochistan unrest is the opening for America.

I am discussing Balochistan and the NeoCon designs about this region in general and Balochistan in particular.

 

[FaujHistorian]

@FaujHistorian
I am strictly talking in terms of national interests. not making a vs trade comparison with USA of china and / or Pakistan....

National interests Sir, are based largely on two things: Trade, and energy/geo-strategic value.

A distant third pillar of inter-country relationship perhaps could be called "people-to-people" or cultural ties.

Pakistan cannot impact American plans of trade with China.
Pakistan cannot add much to the geo-strategic protection of China. KKH is too thin and too flimsy to act as major corridor for China in its confrontation with USA.

And people-to-people or cultural ties of an English speaking Pakistan with Chinese speaking country are very very limited as we can all see.

Time and again we have seen that Pakistan's strongest and longest lasting ties are with other English speaking countries including USA, UK, Canada, and Australia. Those are the countries that provide Pakistanis with citizenships and most importantly modern education and in return benefit from Pakistanis settled there.

Oil rich Middle Eastern countries come next, but Pakistanis do not and cannot have long term ties as none of those countries offer citizenship.

Similarly any trade worth some profit margin for Pakistan is with the West. We cannot sell any of our manufactured goods to China.

Pakistan's energy/geo-strategic value is much much higher from USA (for TAPI) while China views Pakistan's regional energy role as negative. This is the reason China blocked Pak membership in Shanghai-5 for the longest time.

It is clear that on the national interests view, Pakistan-USA relationship is on a much higher level compared to Pakistan-China.

Also USA-China national interest is much much higher level compared to Pakistan-China.

It is all about numbers, and calculations. Back in the 1960s China was communist so things were different. At this point China wants to be the most USA friendly country based on its national interests.

And it will be good if Pakistani intellectuals updated their analysis- models as well.




Peace.

 

[VCheng]

............ just remember that target is china containment and Pakistan is in the way ..........

Before we go any further, can you please explain what you mean by "containment" of China, and how Pakistan represents an obstruction that can be removed by meddling in Baluchistan? Specifics please, rather than a general statement.

My contention is that China's containment is not affected at all by Pakistan in any significant way, but will depend on much greater arenas, and thus the rest of your construct regarding Baluchistan fails to follow.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

Xeric, I met a driver of a Baloch sardar, who came to get the land Cruiser washed at the petrol pump. I happened to be there too. We got into a little chat.

I asked him, kitni tankhwa, he said, nothing, I said then how do you do? He said , sardar hi de deta hai jo kuch dena ho, koi set nhn, kabhi khush ho zyada deta hai, kabhi ghusaa ho to kuch nhn.
after some more questions, i asked him why dont you leave? He said, agr chor dun to mujh par jhuta case lag jaye ga, or mujhay jail main bhej day ga, aur mere biwi bach ko apnay pas rakhay ga, us say behter yehi hai.

These Baloch sardars, quite a few, think that these people are their slaves and not human beings.

un-bloody believable, to say the least......

it's a treason and a REAL crime against Baloch people


almost every Baloch I meet becomes visibly angry in the face when discussion of feudal sardars is brought up.....they are the biggest enemy to their people and among the biggest hindrances to development in Baluchistan (the center hasnt had its hands clean either, quite frankly)

 

[FaujHistorian]

un-bloody believable, to say the least......

it's a treason and a REAL crime against Baloch people


almost every Baloch I meet becomes visibly angry in the face when discussion of feudal sardars is brought up.....they are the biggest enemy to their people and among the biggest hindrances to development in Baluchistan (the center hasnt had its hands clean either, quite frankly)

Blaming Baloch sardars is an old news now.

I may incorrect on the number but there are between 15 to 20 big tribes and Sardars in Balochistan. Only two to three are anti-development namely Bugti and one other. Ok so there could be more.

The rest of the tribes and their sardars are not anti-development or anti-pakistan.

It is the failure of Pak educated elite that it cannot show major development for any of the areas in Balochistan.

It is time we quit blaming and start building.


Peace,.

 

[SamantK]

@FaujHistorian
just remember that target is china containment and Pakistan is in the way

A very informative article, but I do not understand how big a role Pakistan can play in the containment of China, especially when, in this case, US is trying to create instability in Pakistan through Baluchistan, it will be a political suicide. US is trying very hard to prop India and other South Asian countries for its containment policy

 

[VCheng]

What exactly is "containment"? Gone are the days when geographical boundaries and military encirclement were effective in containing any enemy. The real struggles in the 21st century will be in stock markets, space and cyberspace!