Op Grp: What Drives American Policies and Strategic Aims in the Region?

[Irfan Baloch]

What Drives American Policies and Strategic Aims in the Region?

(picture: http://www.flickr.com/photos/hanifbhatti/)


By Irfan Baloch


Since the end of Second World War America has been constantly in a state of war. This strategy of endless war justifies the existence of its massive war industry. Nationalistic or religious unrest is fomented in its areas of “interest” followed by moving in as a “savior”, with or without a UN “mandate”. For far too many decades, the American policy has been to think a few steps ahead of its current actions when it selects a region for its focus.

Balochistan is no different.

In the hearing of the Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations of the US House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs held on February 8, 2012, the American designs on this region were brought into the open. What was before routinely dismissed as a conspiracy theory has now been clarified: “Let's stick it to the Pakistanis”.

The basis of the American approach


As if Balkanization of Pakistan is not enough, a few American hawks are willing to up the ante by carving out chunks from Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan to make what they call “Greater Balochistan”. This new American ally would ensure that the sea lanes through the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea to the South Pacific remain unchallenged and under its control.

The larger picture is that this would eventually help them in isolating, containing and restraining China.

The current setbacks against Taliban are merely a nuisance for the Americans.

The region is ready for their next move: There is ample unrest. Iran is isolated and crippled under sanctions. It has hostile Sunni Arabs on its western side and an Afghanistan occupied by hostile American forces on its eastern side. Pakistan’s economy and law and order are in shambles, due to inept government and the American War on Terror.

With this single goal in mind, the American policy suffers from severe myopia. For now it doesn’t matter for policy-makers if:
- The Committee leaders holding the hearings and presenting resolutions calling for an independent Balochistan can even pronounce the name properly.
- The Committee Congressmen have enough insight about the people, its politics and geographical makeup; or
-The Baloch diaspora originating from Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran have enough influence over their Congressmen. (If so, it would be welcome and can be used to legitimize America’s intervention.);

The American approach is wrong


The most obvious fallacy of the Americans is the over-simplification or rather dismissal of the ethnic diversity within the province.

Of the population of 8 million in Balochistan, about 5 million are non-Baloch, including Pashtuns (40%), Brahui (20%) and a mix of Sindhi, Punjabi, Seraiki and Hazara.

The remaining 3 million Baloch are spread into 150 tribes which are further subdivided into clans. Of the 150 tribes, only two tribes are waging war against the state, the Bugtis (approximately 100,000 people) and the Marris (approximately 250,000 people).

Furthermore, not all sub-clans of these tribes are at war. For example, the Kalpar Bugtis who have been targeted for not joining the rebellion, amount to almost 70,000 people of the Bugti tribe.

Their leader Khan Mohammad and his sons were killed on the orders of Akbar Bugti. Another Bugti sardar of the Masuri sub-clan was abducted, kept in prison, and humiliated by shaving his beard, eyebrows and moustache. The Kalpar Bugtis do not have fond memories of Akbar Bugti, and famously recount him as saying: “What’s better than seeing your enemies driven before you (are dead) and then taking their women to bed”?

It is pertinent to note here that the estimated number of ‘active combatants’ and ‘supporters’ is only 2,000-3,000, who are involved in anti-state activities such as running terrorist camps.

The myth of discrimination

The involvement of foreign powers in this chaos is terrible news for the people of the province because no side will give up without a fight. While it is essential that the Pakistani security forces are held accountable for the dead and the missing Baloch activists, the killing of peaceful pro-Pakistani Baloch and other non-Baloch ethnicities at the hands of the BLA should not be justified as a consequence of a reaction to any alleged mistreatment of the BLA.

A reason often given for the unrest and dissent is lack of development in infrastructure and basic civic necessities like schools and hospitals. To say that the Baloch have been discriminated on the basis of ethnicity when it comes to development is far removed from the truth.

Come off the Grand Trunk Road in Punjab and travel 40 miles inside Punjab and you will experience the same development issues faced by the people of Baluchistan. The only difference is that there is, at least, some evidence of some effort, despite the corruption and mismanagement.

In Balochistan the lack of development has much to do with the prevailing feudal mentality of purposefully keeping the people underdeveloped to keep a grip on them. Sardars and Nawabs like Bugtis have been in power in the provincial government from time to time but did not pay much attention to development in their own areas.

During an Al Jazeera documentary university students in Quetta were asked about the lack of development and the contribution of Sardars. One student pertly responded that the development is the responsibility of the Government, not the sardars.

Totally disregarding the Chieftains would be ill advised. However, they need to be taught that if they want to remain relevant, and genuinely want to address the problems of their tribes, then they have to stop complaining and start suggesting solutions.
Being granted a major stake in their local natural resources is a genuine request, but it’s not a one way street as they would have us believe. They receive food and hydroelectric power from rest of Pakistan.

The financial award announced by the government can address this issue if implemented properly.

The peaceful solution


There is a swarm of Baloch analysts, experts and historians that have suddenly spawned. Videos, blogs and articles are appearing on a regular basis with predictions of the demise of Pakistan as we know it, and the formation of Independent Balochistan as a foregone conclusion.

Analysts and anchors are giving prime time coverage to ultra-nationalist Baloch and BLA terrorists that are openly advocating violence and terror against the Pakistani state and its people. The mainstream Nawaz League is thought of as being crude as in its quest to settle personal scores with the Army, it has appointed a Baloch nationalist as the president of its Balochistan Chapter.

The same Sardars who were once in the laps of Khad, RAW and the KGB back in the days of the Cold War have found a mix of some old and new financiers. They are getting ample airtime and receiving high level attention and funding beyond their dreams. So it’s no wonder that their tone is already very confident and they are arrogant about their demands for a separate country.

However, be it the anchors, their guests or even the PMLN, all are at a complete loss of words when questions such as these are brought up: Would the issues plaguing Balochistan today see any resolution if Balochistan becomes an independent country?

For me, the real solution in Balochistan lies in concerted and honest effort by the central government to engage the whole population of Balochistan, including all ethnicities, not just the most vocal ones.

The rest of the solution is more autonomy and socioeconomic development, which can only happen when the security situation stabilizes, and the BLA stops firing rockets at the very infrastructure it complains Balochistan lacks.

The people of Balochistan eagerly wait for a leadership that is not tainted with allegations of corruption and mismanagement, just like the rest of Pakistanis do. The state of Pakistan has a last chance to bring the situation under control, otherwise foreign powers will be deciding the fate of Balochistan.

http://www.defence.pk/drives-american-policies-strategic-aims-region-721/

 

[Elmo]

Bumping this up -

 

[Developereo]

Good exposition, thanks.

Few questions:

1. Do you think Baluchistan is Plan B for the US, just in case permanent bases in Afghanistan can't be negotiated, or is there a longer term plan in addition to keeping forces in Afghanistan?

2. Why are the sardars able to block federal development programs? Can't the federal govt. go ahead and build infrastructure or does it need the sardars' permission?

3. Wouldn't granting autonomy backfire and give more power to the sardars? Shouldn't our aim be to empower the local population and remove the sardars' power as middlemen?

 

[somebozo]

VERY WELL WRITTEN...THANKS IRFAN BALOCH!

 

[MastanKhan]

Irfan Baloch,

You want to talk about something near and dear to your heart. Pakistan should have done what the united states does in case of descent or what the british did---or what the caliphs did in their time.Strike hard---strike deep---keep on a relentless pressure---control the leakage of any news and don't stop for negotiations in midstep.

Pakistan, pakistan's millitary, pakistan's politicians and pakistani public have failed thier country miserable in all the fields and balochistan being one of them.

As any political or millitary stuff does not happen in ether but has real time problems and real time implications---the same is true fo the united states attacking of afg.

All the problems that pakistan had----the ones that were buried deep---those swept under the rug---political manipulation and wranglings started popping up one by one once the pak army and politicians allowed not to take any action against the al qaeda on their own after 9/11.

Pakistan would have pulled a coupe de grace---if they---on their own---would have acted and struck hard on al qaeda inafghanistan and executed them----even before letting the u s millitary taking charge.

Why I say that---for some very simple and open to public knowledge and reasoning---. The new formed alliance between the u s and india---the relationship between india and northern alliance---.the relation between northern alliance and the u s.

Pakistanis----out of their ignorance wanted to participate in making another vietnam of the u s---thus assuming that the u s was a fool and learnt nothing from its pst experience----well I will give credit to the pakistanis---they were partially correct---where they went wrong---that has created massive problems for pakistan. You see if you win---you get the candy---but if you lose--then you lose it all----and that is the tragic failure that haunts pakistan all the time----pakistanis anticipate failure right from day one---because they know very well---that they would blunder into it clueless as to what needed to be done.

Baluchistan is part of one of the major problems that came about due to things pak had not done.

Here is what pakistan should have realized about the u s invasion of afg---with the u s india would also be sneaking into the backyard---once it sneaks in---it would build its old relationship with the northern alliance---finding ways and means to strangulate paistan. You do understand when I say out bitterness that pakistanis are not very intelligent people as a nation---in their anger they are blinded by their hatreds---.

This is a nation that burns its own buses and trains when they protest---here is a nation that destroys its property when they protest---here is a nation that loots and plunders itself just to protest against the desecration of the name of prophet in a country 6 thousand miles away.


What has happened in balochistan is due to a lack of cohesion and commitment by the politicians and the millitary. The millitary knew that the politicians would deceive them,---yet they fell into the trap----. The bottomline is that the pakistani community and the govt as a whole failed over and over in the last 10 + years---once akbar Bugti died---the millitary should have struck harder and finished off the job----shut the media off just like in the u s---the govt has shut down the media under the patriot act / espioage act----.

Time is the biggest enemy of the state---if the state starts lagging behind in enforcing its writ in any field----it brins about chaos---and balochistan is no different.

 

[FaujHistorian]

....


The larger picture is that this would eventually help them in isolating, containing and restraining China.

The current setbacks against Taliban are merely a nuisance for the Americans.

The region is ready for their next move: There is ample unrest. Iran is isolated and crippled under sanctions. It has hostile Sunni Arabs on its western side and an Afghanistan occupied by hostile American forces on its eastern side. Pakistan’s economy and law and order are in shambles, due to inept government and the American War on Terror.
....

Irfan Sahib,

You Sir are a true intellectual. I just wanted to say please study history of Columbia on panama canal issue and how Panama became a separate country. Baloch problem is somewhat similar.

I'll get to it later.

But let me say few things (if you don't mind).

Chinese have more than enough people to face of America. We should not worry about encirclement of China.

If American gives us enough money then we do what we did against Communist Russia.

However Baloch problem is less to do with encirclement of china, and a lot more to do with encirclement (or avoiding it) of American troops in Afghanistan.

Pakistan should be very careful about stopping NATO supplies. it is foolish to think we can starve 100,000 of their troops by doing topi drama in our good-for-nothing corrupt parliament.

We are safe so far because we have 100+ years of army history with UK and then US. So they are easy on us. They still give us money every year and still talk nicely (to the extent possible).

If we didn't have long history with USA and UK, we would have long been treated as Columbia on panama canal issue.

Remember Columbia was a tiny country and almost 100 years ago, tried to mess up American plans to dig up panama canal. Once USA failed to convince Columbia on the canal, Americans created separate country called Panama and dug the canal anyway. Looking back, I feel that Columbia should have allowed the canal for the money offered. Because the same amount of money was offered to the newly formed Panama and canal project was done.

Americans are goal oriented people. They will get their things done. We have to decide if we want to fully help them in Afghanistan or not.

Balochi separatists are promising just one thing to Americans. Free access to Afghanistan.

We should learn from Columbia history from the past and Baloch separatists of the present and do not act as goofy drunkards who can start and stop NATO lines at will.

As long Pakistanis keep the NATO traffic flowing, and not mess up future plans of USA, they won't do a thing in Balochistan.


peace.

 

[Shardul.....the lion]

One suggestion to benefit Pakistan is

Atleast stop the Baloch nationalist coming on national television of Pakistan. How dare some Marri or whatever comes on Pakistan news channel and says we want azadi? (I saw on youtube).

So blocking antinational elements on national TV of Pakistan should be first step. Because propoganda is harder to control than actual news.

 

[Rig Vedic]

However Baloch problem is less to do with encirclement of china, and a lot more to do with encirclement (or avoiding it) of American troops in Afghanistan.

Yes, but US is interested in Afghanistan at least partly because of its strategic location with respect to China and Russia.

We are safe so far because we have 100+ years of army history with UK and then US. So they are easy on us. They still give us money every year and still talk nicely (to the extent possible).

Very perspicacious. But the real reason why they are easy on you, and keep giving you free weapons, despite your blowing up their grunts in Afghanistan, is that Pakistan can play a useful role in keeping the pot boiling in multiple theaters - South Asia, Central Asia, Xinjiang.

We have to decide if we want to fully help them in Afghanistan or not.

At one time the US was using China against the Soviets. You now have to handle the fact that the US and China have conflicting interests.

 

[Developereo]

Why I say that---for some very simple and open to public knowledge and reasoning---. The new formed alliance between the u s and india---the relationship between india and northern alliance---.the relation between northern alliance and the u s.

I'm afraid you've put the cart before the horse.

The GWOT and AQ are an insignificant blip on America's geopolitical radar. The mission in Afghanistan has always included the goals to contain China, encircle Iran and promote India as the regional hegemon. Once AQ camps were obliterated and the Taliban regime displaced, the 'great game' took center stage.

It would not have mattered one whit to America what Pakistan did or didn't do with AQ. The US strategy to cement a Northern Alliance backed military and a pro-India regime in Afghanistan was going to be implemented regardless. The only option Pakistan had was to maintain leverage in Afghanistan to undermine these American goals which are contrary to Pakistan's long term interests.

However, I do agree with you about the Baluchistan situation.

 

[Developereo]

Americans are goal oriented people. They will get their things done. We have to decide if we want to fully help them in Afghanistan or not.

NATO's underwriting of Indian hegemony in Afghanistan and the CARs doesn't just encircle China, it encircles Pakistan also.

This is not in Pakistan's long term interests and the Pakistani security establishment is doing the right thing by thwarting American efforts to that end.

 

[Xeric]

It was about time that someone should have told us the inside story about the perceived 'mishandling' of Balochistan, and i thank IB for that.

i mean seriously it is high time that we should shed off with the notion that Balochistan has been neglected by the Federation of Pakistan. Recently i was in a meeting with on of the DCs in Balochistan during my visit to the province. The DC himself was a local from Balochistan, though he was a Pakhtoon but the various ACs attending the meeting were local Balochs. During the course of the meeting the discussion took a turn towards the perennial discussion of 'under developed Baluchistan' to which all the participants (majority of whom were Balochs) had only one thing to say: the mis-governance of Balochistan has everything to do with the feudal lot of the Province and nobody else!

Now this was no Punjabi saying it, it were the residents of Balochistan who were speaking out loud about the fact that our media and other forces have successfully been obscuring.

The issue is that corruption exists in every sphere of the country. Shahbaz Sharif, even though keeps his share of the development fund but then at the same time also spend some share of the same on actual development. He may spend it on a road that leads to his farm house, but damn it, that road is inside Lahore and thus it is the Lohoris who will benefit from it.

So i beg the sardars, who have been ruling Balochistan both traditional (by sardari system) and politically (by occupying the seats of CMs and Governors) to atleast give Balochistan its due share, however minute it may be after they get their cut out of it, but hey! dont consume the entire case, for God Sake!

Anni tey na pao..!!

 

[vsdoc]

If the US really wanted India to concentrate on China undisturbed, the US would not try to stop Iran from going nuclear to contain Pakistan and divide their focus. Always knowing fully well that the only handle nukes give Iran over Israel is by emboldening their substantial assymmetric capabilities. That the US takes the stand it does can only mean that for them in the larger scheme of things, oil trumps their need to contain China or "protect" Israel.

 

[Xeric]

Good exposition, thanks.

Few questions:

2. Why are the sardars able to block federal development programs? Can't the federal govt. go ahead and build infrastructure or does it need the sardars' permission?

Agar jaan ki imaan paon tu i will like to say something about this.

Once when the federal approved the construction of a Dam ( Naulang Dam) at Jhal Magsi everyone was happy (the Feds have done their jobs), but then i happen to meet the Cheif Engineer their, who himself a Baloch told me that, 'Sir, i dont think this Dam would bring any guud to Balochistan', and on my query why, he replied that the Sardar Sahib (we all know who, and who controls everything there and is the Governor of Balochitan) will make sure that the tributaries would pass through his (agricultural) area alone and he alone would benefit from it. Mark my words that this Dam, though being propagated by the Fed Govt as one of their achievements to assist Balochistan, would not actually assist the Province as one would have thought.

So you get my point how the Sardars 'block' fed dev programs?

 

[Jango]

Xeric, I met a driver of a Baloch sardar, who came to get the land Cruiser washed at the petrol pump. I happened to be there too. We got into a little chat.

I asked him, kitni tankhwa, he said, nothing, I said then how do you do? He said , sardar hi de deta hai jo kuch dena ho, koi set nhn, kabhi khush ho zyada deta hai, kabhi ghusaa ho to kuch nhn.
after some more questions, i asked him why dont you leave? He said, agr chor dun to mujh par jhuta case lag jaye ga, or mujhay jail main bhej day ga, aur mere biwi bach ko apnay pas rakhay ga, us say behter yehi hai.

These Baloch sardars, quite a few, think that these people are their slaves and not human beings.

 

[FaujHistorian]

I hate to see this Irfan sahib's excellent article getting turned into anti-Sardar.

This will take us away from the main topic aka How to stop the internationalization of Balochistan.

Sardars will be sardars. No one can change that. Anyone in Pakistan with 2-bit (or more) political power will openly and few times not so openly exploit the system. You can't change that in one or two or three generations.

China will be encircled by USA if it wants to. We can't taken on USA on this. China may be powerful. But it is no Commie Russia. So even China itself will not openly take on the USA.

So we should side with USA as it has more to offer economically. We can sell a shirt to USA but we cannot to China. China makes a better and cheaper shirt than us.


So the only issue that we can solve with regards to Balochistan is to stop it from getting internationalized. This can be done by being in good books of the West.

As long as we gaurantee and maintain safe passage for NATO/USA supplies, they don't need to go to third party aka Balosh nationalists.

That's all.

peace.