Nuclear weapons alone may not prevent conflict in South Asia
* Study says carrying out limited war under nuclear umbrella yields substantial risks
By Khalid Hasan
WASHINGTON: A new study of the 10-month military standoff between India and Pakistan following the attack on Lok Sabha in New Delhi in December 2001 has concluded that nuclear weapons may help stabilise an adversarial relationship but they certainly do not prevent severe crises that can lead to a conflict.
The study by Stimson Centres Scoville fellow Alex Stolar includes interviews with two former members of Indias cabinet committee on security, Brajesh Mishra and Jaswant Singh, as well as with other senior Indian national security officials who were in government during the confrontation.
Limited war: Another of the reports conclusions is that while notions of limited war are a staple of the deterrence literature, carrying out a limited military action under the nuclear umbrella entails substantial risks. Statesmen and generals considering launching a limited war would have to consider what factors would keep a limited military action limited, and what factors would cause a limited military action to escalate. The study also maintains that message management during a crisis is both essential and difficult. Disciplined message management can help prevent unintended escalation during a crisis. National leaders, however, must convey information to multiple domestic and international audiences during a crisis, and doing so effectively and precisely is extraordinarily challenging. Finally, the study holds that facilitating interagency cooperation is a vital but complicated task for heads of state and principals in the midst of a crisis. Even during the best of times, coordinating complex government bureaucracies in the formulation and implementation of policy is difficult. Periods of crisis strain government bureaucracies at a time when nimble and coordinated responses to complex challenges are most needed.
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