Nuclear arms race between China and India

[somebozo]

Dude !!! well talking of CIA knowing abour ur arsenal strength is OK fair enof they might know ur nuclear capabilities and arsenal strength,as ur nuclear quest was right under the nose of CIA during CIA funded Afghan jihad.
..

CIA is no creditable source of information. Remember Iraqi WMD, Ballistic missles and yellow cake purchases from nigeria?? Even defeated be been-laden!

But about the indian Arsenal...Lolzz the Cia along with all the western intelligence agencies were humiliated by RAW .They didnot even know we were testing in 98..They didnot even know we made a bomb in 1974.So u think an agency which could not even know about our Test site and date would sit and count our nukes.All they can do is to calculate theoritically calculate and estimate our uranium/plutoniu stocks and then estimate the number of nukes..

Neither they knew anything about Pakistani nuke program while we sneaked under their nose all the time..Neither they knew we were planning a test. Neither they know storage location of our warhead. If RAW defeated CIA, good for them but its not an extraodinary achievement. All intelliegence agencies with little vigiliiance know how to defeat their adversary. No bragging rights awarded when the same RAW does not have enough resources for electronics analysis and request to ban import of GSM gear from China.

 

[Guynextdoor]

Well, the thing is that in the past minimum deterrence not MAD had always been part of the China's nuclear doctrine, I don't think matching the quantities of other nuclear power is what China is aiming for. Assuring that China is able to inflict enough damage to the others if it is attacked is already a credible deterrence for other not to attack China with nuclear weapon, unless the other country has completely gone mad. So as long as China has gained a credible second strike capability, there is no need for a nuclear race.

Neither is India. Our primary concern will be a both direct & indirect. Lemme say that everything remains in equilibrium and some wildcard event (like the mumbai attacks) precipitate a war between India and PAK, there won't be any guarantees that china won't intervene. In the eventuality of that intervention, we'll have to plan for tackling the chinese threat too. That's the real problem isn't it? Even if all three governments are in a tense equlibrium state, there are way too many loose canons (non state actors as pak calls them) who can mess things up. Then, even if neither of us wangt to go to war, we may end up in a war. The best guarantee for peace in the region is a crackdown on terrorism.

 

[Guynextdoor]

CIA is no creditable source of information. Remember Iraqi WMD, Ballistic missles and yellow cake purchases from nigeria?? Even defeated be been-laden!




Neither they knew anything about Pakistani nuke program while we sneaked under their nose all the time..Neither they knew we were planning a test. Neither they know storage location of our warhead. If RAW defeated CIA, good for them but its not an extraodinary achievement. All intelliegence agencies with little vigiliiance know how to defeat their adversary. No bragging rights awarded when the same RAW does not have enough resources for electronics analysis and request to ban import of GSM gear from China.

They knew everything about your test (I believe they were also the ones who leaked rumors that your own warheads fizzled and that u borrowd chinese warheads)

In any case yours is a funny country.

 

[Guynextdoor]

There is no going back from a nuclear strike. If you have read Enders Saga you will know that you defeat an enemy, defeat him so he never gets up to fight you again. Obviously this is not true for India who have left Pakistan to do what they do best and have only minimum nuclear deterrence against China. But Chinese are a bit more logical. We have far, far more than 176 nuclear warheads and the means to make even more. I will admit that I believe this freely.

matters of state cannot be equated to metaphors from pugilism. Few countries can take the decision of wiping out millions. I would rather lose a war than be the first to use a nuke...can't let that remain in my country's conscience. The only time I can think of using a nuke is when we are attacked first and even then not ONE HUNDRED AND SEVENTY nukes, just enough to make the point. In any case, the first time both of us have used nukes, we would have both lost the war.

 

[Ras]

There is no going back from a nuclear strike. If you have read Enders Saga you will know that you defeat an enemy, defeat him so he never gets up to fight you again. Obviously this is not true for India who have left Pakistan to do what they do best and have only minimum nuclear deterrence against China. But Chinese are a bit more logical. We have far, far more than 176 nuclear warheads and the means to make even more. I will admit that I believe this freely.

I can believe that China has only 176 nuclear weapons(but I am sure they have stockpiled enough for many more)..if China could deter the SU with 12 nukes in 1969 and that with a poor conventional military, I don't think they care too much about needing many nukes today with the conventional capabilities at an all time high. Nukes are not meant to be used as a weapon in the Chinese war plans.

 

[digitaltiger]

The fact that China has been focus on the development of DF-31A and DF-41 means it has no intension of pointing its nuclear missiles at India. So there is no race, at least from China's part.

Make sence, They dont need such long range stuff for India.

 

[ambidex]

Past:
Chinese and Indian nuclear doctrine are almost the same. This has helped a lot for nuclear arm race not to be flared up. Both nations have shown some kind of respect in not to alarm each other exponentially.

I have no doubt that India started its nuclear program to race with Chinese nuclear capacities. But fortunately (for India) USA acted as buffer between both by constraining Chinese nuclear aspirations due to its skepticism about this communist state.

Also China started its exceptional journey of progress from the scratch like India so the there was natural balance due to lack of technology etc for many years to come between both. Chinese nuclear doctrine is US concentric and a honest effort to keep US less skeptical. So it helped India who enjoyed Russian help in Cold war and remained less highlighted whereas China was still a tall poppy for USA to check.

Presently, the situation is changing fast. The Author's concerns are some what genuine but not because there will be a direct arm race between both but China's unexplained nuclear favours to Pakistan will make China's nuclear posture of minimum credible deterrence and NFU irrelevant for India and may be later on for US when she will left ****** high and dry like she did post Russian defeat, with Pakistan and China assisting each other more homogeneously.

There is huge lack of trust between India and China. The only buffer remain between both today is economical necessity and trade. I hope China will come out clear to explain India, how far she will go to help its advisory. Otherwise nuclear arms race is inevitable & by the trends one can see that India has no other option but to Increase its striking range; the only last obstacle to deter China more precisely.

If i have to give benefit of doubt in favour to China's wisdom that helping Pakistan will bring stability then with recent trends of Pakistan's Increasing nuclear stock pile, geographical/logistical situation between three (Where deterring each other is more easier), i will bet that Pakistan will cater more than a check on India for China. Therefore India will not mind any one helping her to start nuclear arm race in this region where its own survival will not care about what deceptive Chinese nuclear doctrine states. The ball is still at the Chinese court if she wishes a sluggish nuclear arm race or fast.
Regards

 

[Kyusuibu Honbu]

Why would there be an nuclear arms race between the 2 nations when both of them follow "no-first-use" policy?

 

[footmarks]

whether you have 1000 nuclear warheads or only 10. What matters is that both India & China have indeginous R&D facilities wherein they can produce a large no of N-warheads within a short span of time.
Anyways, i heard somewhere about the team headed by openheimer which first tested the N-bomb during Manhattan project. one of the N-scientist involved said after the first N-test "the future human generations will call us as " son of a ******" for creating such a devastating weapon.

"we have created the biggest blunder in the history of mankind, I wish we will not be credited with the reason of termination of human race on earth" he furthur quoted. whether he said it is true or not, it is true as far as N-war threat is concerned.I hope Hiroshima & nagasaki remains the first and last use of N-weapons in human history forever.

 

[chauism]

whether you have 1000 nuclear warheads or only 10. What matters is that both India & China have indeginous R&D facilities wherein they can produce a large no of N-warheads within a short span of time.
Anyways, i heard somewhere about the team headed by openheimer which first tested the N-bomb during Manhattan project. one of the N-scientist involved said after the first N-test "the future human generations will call us as " son of a ******" for creating such a devastating weapon.

"we have created the biggest blunder in the history of mankind, I wish we will not be credited with the reason of termination of human race on earth" he furthur quoted. whether he said it is true or not, it is true as far as N-war threat is concerned.I hope Hiroshima & nagasaki remains the first and last use of N-weapons in human history forever.

Albert Einstein said ” I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but world War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”

 

[footmarks]

Somebody has said this too "Our scientific power has outrun our spiritual power. We have guided missiles and misguided men."

 

[chauism]

Somebody has said this too "Our scientific power has outrun our spiritual power. We have guided missiles and misguided men."

It reminds something that I forgot who said it.

"I know that any war between India and Pakistan that begins with conventional weapons isn't going to end that way."

Let's all hope he is terribly wrong. Otherwise whatever Einstein said will become a reality.

 

[Evil Flare]

Albert Einstein said ” I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but world War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”

I have read this before ... Its my Fav Quote .

 

[footmarks]

For all the " No of N-bombs " debate going on here, here is another Einstein's Quote worth mentioning

:Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted

 

[F111]

India is no where near China. First of all, the Indian tests fizzled and the thermonuclear weapon failed to go off. Only the fission component gave a satisfactory bang!
Second of all, the most Indians can get out of the weapon is a 200kt nuclear weapon, that too it's all theory! The 45kt TN nuke can be theoretically scaled up to 200kt, this is what the Indians claim. Ofcourse, how much of that claim is real no one knows. Given the fact that it was only one test, they won't have much data to work with to implement their "theory". And ofcourse, theory does not always mean it works practically.
Third and the most funny part, is the fact that, the theory to scale up the weapon to 200kt, only works if the 45kt weapon was successful. When that test itself was a failure, you can bet there aren't many, maybe even no, 200kt weapons in their arsenal.

China on the other hand already tested a MT yield weapon along with several kt yield ones. They have enough data to work with on their super computers to scale up their weapon if the need arises.

Also, a MT weapon is used for razing hardened military installations inside Mountains. NORAD of the U.S is a good example. The soviet union designed 20MT(Mega tonne) weapons for taking out installations like NORAD.
If a nuclear war breaks out, China can safely operate from their underground mountain HQs while the Indian 200kt safely detonates above, while the Indian command centers will be sitting ducks for the Chinese MT nukes.

In short, in case of a nuclear war, India is toast. This whole argument of Nuke Arms race with China is a wet dream of the Indians.