North East Asian Union? Exploring the potential of an NEA integration

[Aepsilons]

I don't think he meant to annex Hawaii...LOL. But if this Asian Union is formed, Americans will have to re-adjust it foreign policy regarding Asia, they will not be anymore to play Japanese card against China, black mail Japan or play dirty trick to Japan such as plaza accord which really hurt Japan, The combined 2nd and 3th world economic power China and Japan respectively will be able to withstand any US economic challenge. As for military front, like I said before If Japan dare to give middle finger to US then Americans will lose their military supremacy in Asia, Japan is the key player regarding US's future in Asia.

I don't think he meant to annex Hawaii...LOL. But if this Asian Union is formed, Americans will have to re-adjust it foreign policy regarding Asia, they will not be anymore to play Japanese card against China, black mail Japan or play dirty trick to Japan such as plaza accord which really hurt Japan, The combined 2nd and 3th world economic power China and Japan respectively will be able to withstand any US economic challenge. As for military front, like I said before If Japan dare to give middle finger to US then Americans will lose their military supremacy in Asia, Japan is the key player regarding US's future in Asia.

Let us also conjecture when both Japan and Korea no longer need the interventionism of the United States. Losing both Japan and Korea as client states would significantly undermine the US power projection and its relevancy into the 2nd or 3rd island chain, LOL. As for the Philippines, let's say that there are processes in place that prevent permanency in American forces in the Philippines, through constitutional law that prevents US military bases. There are clauses that enable rotational processes of forces through Filipino bases, but it is, under constitutional law and by senatorial promulgation that forbids any , specifically, American bases in Filipina soil.

What does this mean? It means and relegates significance to current American-Filipino strategic relations as being of limited and short term basis. The philippines are utilizing American forces , presently, to try to offset their own defense gaps, a form of aikido in context to national politic, i suppose. However when a new administration takes power in 2016 and when the philippines revitalizes its relations with Beijing , which will happen, the significance of America will be minimized yet again, in the Filipino context. By then, Japan would have already had a rotational presence in the Philippines, and will positively work with the Filipino-Chinese Chamber of Commerce to revitalize relations with Beijing.

So you see, the Philippines is prepared for the long term possibilities , and understands it is unwise to 'burn bridges' with China. Bases are, colloquially speaking, covered.

So, what does mean for the United States? Ultimately, eventually and inevitably , they will be relegated to Tinian, Wake, Guam, Hawaii. Which is fine. For now.

Now : Viet Nam.

Viet Nam is a wise and reactionary nation state, one that chooses partners and allies who have the position of strength. Ultimately, Viet Nam will be brought to bear. In fact, Viet Nam and China actually have a stranglehold and control of the South China Sea and island chains. LOL.

 

[Viva_Viet]

lol, never lower your eyes to your enemy.

You will see, if you observe Japan's polity, we are already at the opposite helm with the US in regards to major US foreign policy:

1. Japan has reverberated its position in support of IRAN, even despite US GOP demonization of Tehran , Japan's recent commitment of a multibillion dollar framework of investments in IRAN is testament to a major policy change for Japan. Washington has already lost influence in cajoling Tokyo in this regard (thanks in part to Japan's forward deployment in the region)
2. Japan UNDERSTANDS and SUPPORTS the role of Russia in the solvency of the Syrian Crisis, to the opposition of Washington's foreign policy. Japan has time and time again at the foreign affairs level (through Kishida Fumio) reiterated Japan's commitment with working with Russia in North Asia as well as in Syria and the Middle East
3. Japan has remained rather silent in the ECS, in Senkakus / Diayutai , despite American coaxing to deploy against China, in an effort to instigate erosion of Tokyo's relations with Beijing. Japan has remained silent and instead , have further relieved American forces in Okinawa by formulating new air squadrons, a silent yet symbolic gesture as the Okinawa base removal dialogue is going on.
4. Japan has not deployed any naval and military units in SCS in an attempt to help encourage a bilateral mechanism where China can solve issues with pertinent neighbors. Despite numerous Washington invitations for the JMSDF to join USN warships to patrol in the SCS, Tokyo had remained reticent and risen above such petty advances.

It is evident, really, to see how Tokyo now realizes Washington's unproductive stances and actions as it pertains to Greater East Asian Region. And it is good to see that despite these irritant actions, Japan , Korea and China are collaborating more with each other through recent revitalization programs to enrich inter-academia, inter-tourism, inter-governmentalism, and overall intercommiserability.

1 2 3 4: Thats not what US want JP to do. US want JP to sign TPP that allow US multi national corps can sue JP Govt.

...and JP just signed TPP to make US multi national corps happy. From now, they can sue your Govt any time they want.

....VN case in TPP is different.

 

[Aepsilons]

1 2 3 4: Thats not what US want JP to do. US want JP to sign TPP that allow US multi national corps can sue JP Govt.

...and JP just signed TPP to make US multi national corps happy. From now, they can sue your Govt any time they want.

....VN case in TPP is different.

Japan has not ratified TPP.

And most likely it will never manifest.

Do not be so naive.

 

[Viva_Viet]

Japan has not ratified TPP.

And most likely it will never manifest.

Do not be so naive.

Still hope TPP will not be ratified ??

Okay, when TPP is ratified in 2018,then it means no more dream for N.E Asian union cos US multi corps will take control.of JP economy

 

[Aepsilons]

Still hope TPP will not be ratified ??

Okay, when TPP is ratified in 2018,then it means no more dream for N.E Asian union cos US multi corps will take control.of JP economy

Sigh.

*takes deep breath*

*exhales*

 

[Nike]

Let us also conjecture when both Japan and Korea no longer need the interventionism of the United States. Losing both Japan and Korea as client states would significantly undermine the US power projection and its relevancy into the 2nd or 3rd island chain, LOL. As for the Philippines, let's say that there are processes in place that prevent permanency in American forces in the Philippines, through constitutional law that prevents US military bases. There are clauses that enable rotational processes of forces through Filipino bases, but it is, under constitutional law and by senatorial promulgation that forbids any , specifically, American bases in Filipina soil.

What does this mean? It means and relegates significance to current American-Filipino strategic relations as being of limited and short term basis. The philippines are utilizing American forces , presently, to try to offset their own defense gaps, a form of aikido in context to national politic, i suppose. However when a new administration takes power in 2016 and when the philippines revitalizes its relations with Beijing , which will happen, the significance of America will be minimized yet again, in the Filipino context. By then, Japan would have already had a rotational presence in the Philippines, and will positively work with the Filipino-Chinese Chamber of Commerce to revitalize relations with Beijing.

So you see, the Philippines is prepared for the long term possibilities , and understands it is unwise to 'burn bridges' with China. Bases are, colloquially speaking, covered.

So, what does mean for the United States? Ultimately, eventually and inevitably , they will be relegated to Tinian, Wake, Guam, Hawaii. Which is fine. For now.

Now : Viet Nam.

Viet Nam is a wise and reactionary nation state, one that chooses partners and allies who have the position of strength. Ultimately, Viet Nam will be brought to bear. In fact, Viet Nam and China actually have a stranglehold and control of the South China Sea and island chains. LOL.

Well they still hold 20 floating islands in the name of USS JFK, USS America and other and they still got a hold in many places near Asia mainland. And they still can maintain their presence everywhere in any places in this world and undermine any efforts to dislodge their presence with their economical and political pressure.

 

[Aepsilons]

Well they still hold 20 floating islands in the name of USS JFK, USS America and other and they still got a hold in many places near Asia mainland. And they still can maintain their presence everywhere in any places in this world and undermine any efforts to dislodge their presence with their economical and political pressure.

Even the great oak tree must fall. American naval doctrine is not impermeable.

 

[Twitchingbouse]

Japan has not ratified TPP.

And most likely it will never manifest.

Do not be so naive.

The intent has been stated.

A dozen Pacific Rim nations officially sign Trans-Pacific Partnership
Updated February. 05, 2016 09:09

The Trans-Pacific Partnership, one of the biggest multinational trade deals ever, has been officially signed in New Zealand on Thursday local time. The Korean government will decide whether to sign the trade pact within this year after internal discussions.




The members of the pact had an official signing with New Zealand Prime Minister John Key and U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman at the Sky City convention center in Auckland. The TPP can become effective only after each member country ratifies the pact. The TPP led by the U.S. in an attempt to eliminate trade and investment barriers in the Asia Pacific area involves 12 countries: the U.S., Canada, Japan, Vietnam, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei.

The Trade, Industry and Energy Ministry of Korea unveiled the analysis of the TPP on Thursday. “It has a similar level to the Korea-U.S. free trade agreement in general. As Korea signs a free trade agreement with 10 countries, the TPP will have an only limited impact on the Korean economy over the short term,” the ministry said. “In the mid to long term, however, non-TPP member countries will be affected by the regulation of the TPP in trading with the member countries.”

The Institute for International Trade under the Korea Trade Association said in a report on the official signing of the TPP that if the TPP becomes effective, the GDP and exports of Korea, a non TPP member country, will decrease by 0.3 percent and 1.0 percent, respectively. “If the TPP becomes effective, Korea will be negatively affected in the mid to long term as the benefits that it enjoyed based on the Korea-U.S. free trade agreement will be eroded and the products of Japan, a TPP member country, will replace Korean products,” The association said.

Please note that this isn't official, despite the headline. This is a symbolic ceremony that still demonstrate the commitment of these countries to ratifying and passing the tpp (at least their heads of state).

The TPP could still get delayed or die in any of the congresses or parliaments of the participating democratic nations, but it doesn't seem likely. If bernie gets elected the US has a real chance to stop pushing for the TPP.

Unfortunately I cant post the link because of the post count but the source is english.donga.

 

[Nike]

Even the great oak tree must fall. American naval doctrine is not impermeable.

Well it was your Imperial Navy who had been badly beaten by them, even at the times they had no hold in any places near Asia mainland except small garrison unit in Guam, Saipan, Tinian and token forces in Philippine. Don't forget the politics is fluid and one can't expect the results as intended result of such maneuver.

Japan and Russian still hold some issues regarding Kuril Islands and they had been known to fighting for supremacy in the region in the past, meanwhile Russian is very cautious about the rising influence of China in their sphere (Central Asia). What you can expect when the Japan, Korean and China announce the formation of North East Asian Union, the Russian surely will be estranged by such Union and their motives, as they were nowhere near identical with those three by any means (difference in culture, political and economic clouts). It will not estrange to see the Russian to trying to find the counterbalance for such union and they can see it in their old rival the US, after all they know each other better than everyone. Even the Soviet Union with all their differences had joint hand with the West to tackle such oddities (German Nazi), the history can be repeated again. This move will surely bringing and open many possibilities you will never see before. At worst, the World will plunged into chaos in the scale Humanities never seen before.

To me, North East Asian Union will bring much harm to this multipolar world order than bring more benefits.

 

[Aepsilons]

Meh, too much undue pessimism.

 

[Kiss_of_the_Dragon]

Well it was your Imperial Navy who had been badly beaten by them, even at the times they had no hold in any places near Asia mainland except small garrison unit in Guam, Saipan, Tinian and token forces in Philippine. Don't forget the politics is fluid and one can't expect the results as intended result of such maneuver.

Japan and Russian still hold some issues regarding Kuril Islands and they had been known to fighting for supremacy in the region in the past, meanwhile Russian is very cautious about the rising influence of China in their sphere (Central Asia). What you can expect when the Japan, Korean and China announce the formation of North East Asian Union, the Russian surely will be estranged by such Union and their motives, as they were nowhere near identical with those three by any means (difference in culture, political and economic clouts). It will not estrange to see the Russian to trying to find the counterbalance for such union and they can see it in their old rival the US, after all they know each other better than everyone. Even the Soviet Union with all their differences had joint hand with the West to tackle such oddities (German Nazi), the history can be repeated again. This move will surely bringing and open many possibilities you will never see before. At worst, the World will plunged into chaos in the scale Humanities never seen before.

To me, North East Asian Union will bring much harm to this multipolar world order than bring more benefits.

If not the war with China, Japan could have concentrated it effort to deal with American, I put my bet on Japan Navy, Americans are not nothing but a bunch of bad losers to use nukes when they knew was to hard to fight, that Japanese were tenacious and fought to the last drop of blood, same during Korea war, Americans realized that Chinese volunteer army will not give up easily so Gen. Mac Arthur wanted to nuke China because Americans couldn't take the heat...or in Vietnam which they had headache against the Vietcong and used Agent orange against civilian population....such bad losers Americans are always dangerous and unpredictable.

And I don't think Russia will be really concerned about North East Asia Union since Russia has it own association such Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) which China welcome it and never question the motive of this association nor to counter-balancing it, in contrary these two unions can join hands to ensure stability on Euro-Asian continent.

 

[Tiqiu]

Since China's open-door policy started in the late 1970 s, China's Govt had given up much of her stance to heed the demands of Washington in trade off for the economic development. Looking retrospectively, it was the price China had to pay and China made the wise decision. The famous "Hide One's Capabilities and Bide One's Time" and then Chinese foreign "Major Power Diplomacy" were clear evidence.

From the beginning of the new century as China starting to emerge as the biggest challenger of the US hegemony status, China gradually swayed away from her old foreign policy and became more "assertive" or "aggressive" as the American would put it. Good or bad, China is simply doing what all other countries were, are or should be doing:evolve and adapt.

Like people, at one point of time a nation needs to ask the very same question as to Where am I coming from and where am I going to? I think it is the point of time, even if not it is certainly very close to it, for China and Japan to ask the same question.

Thus any thing is possible in the future for China and Japan as these two nations would choose the path that maximizes their own national interest. Given China and Japan have lots of similarity and their close proximity in history and geography, the idea of a type of alliance or union is not an alien and very remote.

Of course there are many conditions and changes need to be met and made for such thing to happen. Among many hurdles, the US would fight her pants off to prevent it. But if one looks back on thousands years history where both countries enjoyed much longer peace time than war, one might easily understand this notion and draw a parallels to many thing in the nature, such as growing of tree branches and growth of a population of rabbits, the observation of which leads to the famous Fibonacci sequence and golden ratio. It is called Path Dependence, it is economical for China and Japan to do it, it is non-economical, and against the law of nature not to do it.

First of the first, let's try to find the answer to "Where am I coming from and where am I going to".

 

[Ewok6102]

Let us also conjecture when both Japan and Korea no longer need the interventionism of the United States.

Like it or not, we are brothers and sisters. Together, we have co-existed next to one another for thousands of years. Our cultures, traditions and core values in life are uniquely similar, if not, the same. We should not let our recent painful, but short, history blind and corrupt the seeds of our positive future.

China, Japan and Korea must stand strong. Together, we can rid east, if not, the entire Asia of America's ill intentions and filthy policies.

Viet Nam is a wise and reactionary nation state, one that chooses partners and allies who have the position of strength.

Its government wants to borrow strength, but at the same time not jeopardizing its own. This means they cannot be too overly close or dependant of the US, incase they bring the southerners back in power.

 

[bbccdd1470]

lol, never lower your eyes to your enemy. In the end, it was never China that was an existential threat to Japan. Since the Meiji Revolution, friend, it had always been the West, particularly the United States, that had always posed the greatest threat to Japanese independence. Ever had they deigned to have a strangle hold of Japan, and thus the right arm of East Asia.

Anyways, there is a change that will happen, a major paradigm shift in regards to Japan's policy with the United States. With the constitutional changes that will happen this coming year, we shall see the renewal of national spirit, and as you can already see, aided in part to the gradual reduction of American troops from Japanese soil. As their presence decreased , in tandem shall there be major policy shifts.

You will see, if you observe Japan's polity, we are already at the opposite helm with the US in regards to major US foreign policy:

1. Japan has reverberated its position in support of IRAN, even despite US GOP demonization of Tehran , Japan's recent commitment of a multibillion dollar framework of investments in IRAN is testament to a major policy change for Japan. Washington has already lost influence in cajoling Tokyo in this regard (thanks in part to Japan's forward deployment in the region)
2. Japan UNDERSTANDS and SUPPORTS the role of Russia in the solvency of the Syrian Crisis, to the opposition of Washington's foreign policy. Japan has time and time again at the foreign affairs level (through Kishida Fumio) reiterated Japan's commitment with working with Russia in North Asia as well as in Syria and the Middle East
3. Japan has remained rather silent in the ECS, in Senkakus / Diayutai , despite American coaxing to deploy against China, in an effort to instigate erosion of Tokyo's relations with Beijing. Japan has remained silent and instead , have further relieved American forces in Okinawa by formulating new air squadrons, a silent yet symbolic gesture as the Okinawa base removal dialogue is going on.
4. Japan has not deployed any naval and military units in SCS in an attempt to help encourage a bilateral mechanism where China can solve issues with pertinent neighbors. Despite numerous Washington invitations for the JMSDF to join USN warships to patrol in the SCS, Tokyo had remained reticent and risen above such petty advances.

It is evident, really, to see how Tokyo now realizes Washington's unproductive stances and actions as it pertains to Greater East Asian Region. And it is good to see that despite these irritant actions, Japan , Korea and China are collaborating more with each other through recent revitalization programs to enrich inter-academia, inter-tourism, inter-governmentalism, and overall intercommiserability.

Good to hear Japan is focusing more on his own interest than the American one. Once Japan can get his independent from the American, the integration of NE Asian is many steps closer, then we can focus how to deal with the Kim of North Korea. We have patience, so one step at a time.

If not the war with China, Japan could have concentrated it effort to deal with American, I put my bet on Japan Navy, Americans are not nothing but a bunch of bad losers to use nukes when they knew was to hard to fight, that Japanese were tenacious and fought to the last drop of blood, same during Korea war, Americans realized that Chinese volunteer army will not give up easily so Gen. Mac Arthur wanted to nuke China because Americans couldn't take the heat...or in Vietnam which they had headache against the Vietcong and used Agent orange against civilian population....such bad losers Americans are always dangerous and unpredictable.

And I don't think Russia will be really concerned about North East Asia US since Russia has it own association such Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) which China welcome it and never question the motive of this association nor to counter-balancing it, in contrary these two unions can join hands to ensure stability on Euro-Asian continent.

You are right, not to mention that Russia is part of the North East Asia. The more countries join the NEAU, the more multi-polar and powerful the organization can be.

 

[j20blackdragon]

Even the great oak tree must fall. American naval doctrine is not impermeable.

You are correct in stating that no nation/state/empire is immune from collapse. History has proven this time and time again. But let me remind you that there were TWO superpowers at the conclusion of WWII.

If the US collapses, the Pacific Ocean opens up.

If Russia collapses, the entire continent of Asia opens up.

Which one of the above scenarios do you think is more important to China? Which is more likely to happen?

Some recent headlines...

Vodka to blame for high death risk in Russian men - USA Today
Vodka to blame for high death risk in Russian men

Oil down again to 12-year low; $30 handle looks more likely
Oil down again to 12-year low; $30 handle looks more likely| Reuters

Ruble hits new low, Kremlin denies currency collapse
Ruble hits new low, Kremlin denies currency collapse| Reuters

And don't forget that the first stage of their collapse ALREADY HAPPENED in 1991.
Dissolution of the Soviet Union - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia