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North East Asian Union? Exploring the potential of an NEA integration

As a Chinese, I applauded for every achievement China made, but we should be not blinded by this thus not able to see our shortcomings.

This was the official account for the gap between China and Japan and what China can learn from Japan written 2 years ago by the then head of China State Council Information Research Bureau.

国务院研究室司长:深刻认识中国与日本发展的差距_共识网
国务院研究室司长:深刻认识中国与日本发展的差距
作者:刘应杰(国务院研究室综合司司长)

对日本发展的看法和评价不能简单地被中国经济总量超过日本成为世界第二经济大国的表象所掩盖。总体上,日本经济社会发展已经进入高度发达文明的程度。日本还是世界上最公平的国家之一。日本朋友甚至开玩笑说,我们是真正的社会主义国家


近期,我们组团到日本进行21天的考察调研,围绕转变经济发展方式的主题,到有关政府部门、企业、大学、研究机构访问交流,听取专家学者的意见,到 东京、大阪、福冈等地参观考察。总的感受是,虽然日本经历了20多年的经济低迷,被称为“失去的20年”,但日本经济社会发展已进入到高度发达文明的阶 段,中国在现代化道路上与日本还有巨大的差距。我们必须时刻自省自警自励,学习借鉴日本的长处,抓住机遇加快发展自己。

正视中国与日本发展的巨大差距

日本三菱综合研究所和野村综合研究所是两家知名的民间智库。我们访问交流时,学者们都对日本的经济发展有一种强烈的危机意识。横井正配是野村综合研 究所的中国区域担当部长,他一半时间在中国,一半时间在日本,他说感觉两边落差非常大,中国的发展是朝气蓬勃,日本则是死气沉沉。中原丰是三菱综合研究所 的副社长,他比喻说,日本是一个“日出的国家”,但现在却是太阳下山的国家,而中国则是太阳当空的国家。我们深刻地感受到,日本许多有识之士都对国家和民 族的发展抱有强烈的责任感和使命感,他们在研究日本面临的问题症结,并寻找着重振日本雄风的未来。

访日之前,我们研究了中日经济发展的对比,可以说中日经济发展经历了一个彼消此长的过程。1991年日本泡沫经济破裂,此后进入了长期的经济低迷时 期,被称为“失去的20年”,深陷经济的泥潭中不能自拔。过去20年,中国经济年均增长达到10.5%,而日本只有1.1%。1987年,日本GDP超过 前苏联成为世界第二大经济体。日本经济占全世界经济总量的比重从1994年最高峰时的17.67%,逐步下降到2010年的8.7%;中国经济占全世界经 济总量的比重从1991年的1.83%,逐步上升到2010年的9.3%。1994年日本经济总量相当于中国的8.55倍,达到战后以来的历史顶峰,随后 中日经济差距迅速缩小,1997年日本GDP降为中国的4倍多,2002年降为中国的2倍多,2006年降为中国的1倍多,2008年之后两国GDP已比 较接近。1990年中国居世界经济第10位,1995年超过巴西、西班牙、加拿大上升到第7位,2000年超过意大利居世界第6位,2005年超过法国和 英国居世界第4位。2007年超过德国居世界第3位,2010年超过日本成为世界第二大经济体。国际货币基金组织预测,按照目前的发展速度,今后五年,中 日之间的经济差距将进一步拉大,到2015年中国GDP可能达到日本的1.5倍以上。世界各国公认,中国的崛起不可阻挡,中国长达30多年的高速增长创造 了世界经济发展史上的奇迹。

正是由于中国经济发展的辉煌成就和日本经济的长期低迷不振,使得国内外许多人看好中国,而看衰日本,甚至有不少中国人也认为,中国即将全面超越日本。

到底应该如何看待中国和日本的发展?这是访日前后始终萦绕在我们心头的问题。通过在日本的访问、考察、接触和了解,我们深深地感受到,对日本发展的 看法和评价不能简单地被中国经济总量超过日本成为世界第二经济大国的表象所掩盖,日本的经济社会发展不像有些人所认为的那样“深陷泥潭”,相反日本经济运 行总体还比较平稳,经济社会发展都进入到有序运行的轨道,经济和社会管理的各个方面都达到了精细化的程度。日本的就业相对比较充分,人民生活比较富足,国 民心态比较平和,社会秩序安定和谐,城乡地区之间发展比较均衡。总体上,日本经济社会发展已经进入高度发达文明的程度。与此相对照,中国在现代化的道路上 与日本还有相当大的差距。

第一,经济实力方面存在巨大差距。虽然中国的经济总量超过日本,但中国的国土面积是日本的25倍,人口是日本的10倍多,反过来日本的人均GDP是 中国的10倍。2010年,日本人均GDP是42150美元,而中国只有4260美元。日本在世界上的高收入国家中名列前茅,而中国仅排在第120位左 右。日本经济方面的巨大优势突出体现在三个方面:工业制造、金融实力、技术优势。这是日本维持世界经济霸权的三大支柱。

一是强大的高端工业制造能力。日本三菱综合研究所的中村裕彦先生说,日本为什么能够成为世界上的高端制造大国?因为日本没有多少资源,能源自给率不 到20%,粮食自给率只有28%,要维持日本人的生存,满足能源和粮食的进口需要,就必须发展具有强大竞争力的制造业,这是日本的生存之道和生命线所在。 日本正是以这种深刻认识和进取精神,牢牢占据世界制造业的高位。工业实力和强大的制造能力成为日本最重要的王牌。工业制造业的高度自动化,使日本成为世界 上最大的机械设备和工业机器人制造大国。世界500强企业中,日本共有68家跨国企业上榜,仅次于美国而居世界第二位。日本产生了一大批世界知名公司和品 牌,如丰田、三菱、日产、索尼、东芝、松下等,其产品技术含量和质量精益求精,享誉全球。在日本工作的中国教授告诉我们,日本产品很少有质量问题,更不可 能有假冒伪劣,同样的产品各地价格也相差不多,顾客尽管放心购物。日本制造成为品牌、技术、质量的代名词。

二是强大的金融实力。日本早在20世纪80年代就确立了世界金融帝国的地位,后来虽然受到泡沫经济破裂和金融危机的冲击,但金融实力依然强大。日本一直是世界上最大的债权国,2010年,日本的海外净资产总计为3.07万亿美元,相当于其国内生产总值的55.8%。

三是强大的技术优势。永远保持技术领先优势,这是日本手中的核心王牌。日本提出“技术立国”战略,在研发领域始终保持世界至尊地位。日本的研发投入 占全球研发投入总量的20%,而其人口只占全球的2%。日本的科研投入相当于国内生产总值的3.4%,其中77%来自企业,而经合组织成员国的平均水平只 有2.3%。全球十大发明型企业中,有八家在日本。其专利发明集中在电子、机械、精细化工、纳米新材料、能源与环保等高科技行业。在可见的将来,日本的技 术领先地位难以动摇。

第二,日本处在现代化的领先地位。访问日本期间,最直观的感受就是日本完善的基础设施,特别是发达的综合性立体交通体系。日本全国近1.28亿人, 居住在面积只有37.78万平方公里的列岛上,而且还主要集中在本州岛上,但到处的交通都很通畅,包括东京这个国际化大都市,几乎看不到长时间堵车的现 象。主要是因为,虽然日本汽车工业发达,居民家庭汽车拥有率很高,但大城市地下铁路、地上高架轻轨构成了一个立体交通网,到任何一个地方都很方便,人们出 行首选的是轻轨和地铁(日本人都叫电车),很少有人会开车上班,甚至一些大公司的经理、政府的高官也都乘坐地铁。我们在东京的几天活动,充分体验到了地铁 和轻轨的方便之处。日本人很为他们完善便捷、节能环保的基础设施自豪,并认为日本在基础设施的规划、建设、运营和管理方面具有向其他国家出口的优势。

日本在城乡、区域发展方面已达到了比较均衡的状态。从南到北,沿途所见,各地区发展都很现代化。日本的农村一样能够享受现代化发展的成果,交通便 利,服务设施比较完善,生活水平与城市差别不大。与此相对照,中国的城乡、区域之间还存在着很大差距。特别是中国还处在农村劳动力向城市大规模流动的阶 段,仅消化吸收这庞大的农村人口,最终达到城乡之间的相对均衡,恐怕就需要两三代人、几十年的时间,这就充分体现了中国与日本现代化的差距。

第三,日本在生态环保方面的突出成就。日本虽然是一个地域狭小、自然灾害频发和多山的国家,但生态环保做得非常好。人们具有非常强烈的环保意识,每 个人都自觉地保护环境。穿行在日本的城市之间,高速公路许多时候是在山洞和桥梁之间通过,所见山峦到处都是森林覆盖,一片郁郁葱葱。日本的森林覆盖率达到 64%,是世界上森林覆盖率最高的国家之一。日本非常重视绿化,即使在繁华的东京,高大的树木、整齐的草坪、大片大片的绿色也尽收眼底,似乎有土地的地方 就被绿色的植物所覆盖。

访问日本真正地感受到什么是整洁干净。无论是城市还是乡村,给人的第一感觉就是干净,这大概是我们中国人到日本的强烈感受。据介绍,日本是世界上垃 圾分类管理最严格的国家,家家户户自觉对垃圾进行分类,按时定点收集,甚至街道上的垃圾筒也不多,人们出门都自觉地带着塑料袋,把准备扔的垃圾保存起来, 放在有收垃圾的地方。在任何地方,都看不到乱扔垃圾和随地吐痰的现象,也没有如美国纽约地铁乱写乱画的问题。

日本更是十分强调节约的国家,全民具有强烈的节约意识。日本的饭菜都份量较少,刚好够一个人吃即可,即使是大家一起聚餐,所点食物也是够吃就好,不 会出现吃不完浪费的现象。日本人认为,他们的资源和食物有限,虽然现在已经非常富裕,但视浪费为犯罪,良心上感到不安。对比中国人餐桌上的巨大浪费,真使 我们感慨万千。这次东日本地震海啸和核辐射,造成电力普遍紧张,日本人更是感到了能源的紧缺,提倡和推行各行各业和全社会节能,办公室、家庭和许多公共场 合都只开一半的灯,虽然没有强制,但人们都非常自觉地实行。日本一些企业都配备有能源管理师,负责落实节能标准。交通节能也是日本节能的一大领域,政府大 力发展公共交通,国民自觉不开汽车,现在骑自行车在日本又流行起来,既节能,又减少污染,还可以锻炼身体,受到人们的普遍欢迎。日本是世界上节能减排做得 最好的国家,其能源使用效率相当于中国的15倍之多。

第四,日本是世界上最和谐有序的国家之一。日本社会给人的第一感觉是有序。交通人流都在无形中听从一个指挥,就是都遵守规则。在大城市的街道上很少 能看到警察,各个路口只有红绿灯在指挥交通,绿灯亮时发出一种“啼嘟啼嘟”的声音,提醒盲人可以过马路。汽车和行人都严格遵守交通规则,无论是市内还是市 外的车流,看不到如中国常见的不断强行并线、超车、夹塞、甚至进入逆行道往前超车等违反交通规则的情况。据说日本发生交通事故的概率很低,在世界上也是交 通事故率最低的国家之一。从表面上就可以看到,日本是一个很守规则的社会。

在日本访问旅行,中国人经常会问,这里安全吗?东西会丢吗?在日本人的心目中这都是不成问题的问题。日本是世界上犯罪率最低的国家,安全根本不是问 题。陪同我们的人说,他在日本生活二三十年,基本上没有碰到过丢东西的现象。中国人总是说,你帮我看着东西。可日本人不明白,东西你看它干嘛。在日本的机 场、饭店、宾馆等各个地方,经常可以看到放着没人看的行李,旁边人来人往,并没有人觉得东西不安全。陪同的人告诉我们,在日本没有人家装防盗门,窗户上也 没有防盗网,因为他们不担心会被盗。我们专门看了街上停放的自行车、摩托车,有些是上锁的,也有不少是不上锁的。这也印证了日本社会的安全。我们感到,在 日本真使人有一种“路不拾遗、夜不闭户”的感觉。

日本还是世界上最公平的国家之一。日本朋友甚至开玩笑说,我们是真正的社会主义国家。人们不管是从事哪行哪业,工资收入差别不大,而且非常透明,没 有工资外的灰色收入。要知道日本人的收入很容易,只要知道他大学毕业时间和年龄就可以了。一般来说,大学刚毕业每月收入20多万日元,相当于人民币1.6 万多元;30多岁的人一般收入30万~40万日元,相当于人民币2.5万~3.3万元。据日本的教授讲,一般资历比较高的教授的收入与日本首相相当,都是 一年1200万日元左右。日本实行严格的个人所得税和遗产税,遗产税率从10%到70%,这些都成为调节收入分配的有效手段。因此,日本的基尼系数比较 低,大约是0.285,属于世界上收入差距最小的国家之一。

日本还是世界上最廉洁的国家之一,一直处于最清廉的前30个国家之列。日本还是世界上人均寿命最高的国家,女性的平均寿命为85.33岁,男性为78.33岁,均创下全球最高纪录。

第五,日本具有很高的国民素质。人们普遍承认,日本的国民素质很高。这首先与日本的教育水平高有很大关系。高中毕业的学生大多数都可以上大学,受过 大学教育的人数占总人口的一半左右。日本人给人留下深刻印象的,有几点特别突出:一是讲礼节。对人非常有礼貌,赴约非常守时。日本人的鞠躬世界闻名,商 场、宾馆、饭店总可以看到服务人员对客人鞠躬致谢。在日本几乎看不到无礼的举动或粗鲁的行为举止。二是重信用。日本人诚实守信,在商业买卖中几乎不会发生 欺诈行为,坑蒙拐骗的事情绝少发生。日本的企业也以讲究信用、产品质量精良著称于世。三是严格自律。日本人的口头禅是“不给他人添麻烦”,每个人都把自己 的事情做好,并尽力做到尽善尽美。在日本看到街上的小汽车,都是擦得干干净净,每家每户每个商店门前也都是收拾得干干净净,这也是“不给别人添麻烦”的具 体表现。在日本的大街上、地铁里,看到的上班族都是西装革履,日本人喜欢穿西装是一种自律的文化要求。令我们惊奇的是,出租车司机也都是西装领带,和公司 白领没有差别。日本人工作负责,讲究效率,勤勉敬业,精益求精,工作中加班加点成为常态,而且都是人们的自觉行为。四是团结精神。在日本,给人的感觉,这 是一个高度一致的社会,根本没有如其他国家那样的不同民族、种族、语言、文化上的差别,更没有这些方面的社会冲突。日本人具有一种团队精神,大家都融入到 集体行为之中,为了集体的和社会的利益,甘愿放弃自己的个人利益。日本民族始终有一种强烈的危机意识,有非凡的适应能力,有不屈不挠的奋斗精神,这些都是 日本取得卓越成就的重要因素。

日本经济发展中存在的深层问题

日本之所以经济长期低迷,有它深层次的矛盾和问题。这也是我们这次访问日本时另一方面的重要感受。

一是日本泡沫经济破裂,产生了长期的严重后遗症。谈到日本经济的长期低迷,就要追溯到日本泡沫经济破裂的影响,而之前的“广场协议”则是一个重要转 折点。20世纪80年代,日本经济经历了战后高速增长期后又出现了“辉煌的10年”。日本产品大量出口到世界各地,尤其对美国形成了巨额贸易顺差。美国迫 使日本达成出口“自愿限制协定”,但效果不佳。1984年底,美国对日贸易逆差突破1000亿美元。1985年9月,美国加上英、法、德与日本签订“广场 协议”,迫使日元大幅升值。到1988年日元兑美元几乎翻了一番,从238∶1骤升至128∶1。一方面,日元升值造成日本企业大肆进行海外投资,购买美 国资产;另一方面,出口减少造成经济增速下降,日本大幅调低利率,实施极为宽松的货币政策,加上大量国外热钱流入,导致金融资产和房地产价格飞涨。日本股 市价格5年间增加了3倍,房地产价格上涨了2.4倍,国家资产几乎翻了一番,日本经济呈现“眩目的辉煌”。1990年,日本的地价市值相当于整个美国地价 的4倍,仅东京都的地价就相当于美国全国的总地价。1991年,日本泡沫经济破裂,股价和房地产价格一路狂跌,银行资产大量缩水,不良贷款增加,经济急剧 下滑,跌入衰退的深渊难以自拔。有人把这次泡沫经济破裂称为“二战后日本的又一次战败”。之后的1997年亚洲金融危机和2008年国际金融危机,更使日 本经济雪上加霜。银行不良债权久拖不决,国家财政不堪重负。日本成为世界上政府负债最高的国家,2010年政府债务总额占到国内生产总值的227%,所幸 国债96%是由日本国民购买的。日本经济经历了长达20多年的低迷,至今还看不到景气和恢复的迹象。

二是有限的国内需求,制约了日本经济发展的空间和余地。日本经济长期依赖外需,出口商品具有强大的国际竞争力,一直保持贸易顺差国的地位。日本强大 的制造能力和有限的国内需求形成了一大矛盾。经过长期的现代化发展,日本的国内发展已经达到饱和的状态。我们在日本很少看到有新建的楼房和新修的基础设 施,许多地方多少年都保持原样,强烈地感受到日本的发展已达到完善成熟的程度,没有多少发展的空间和余地。

三是日本政权频繁更叠,缺乏政策的稳定性和连续性。日本政府这些年来如走马灯一样换来换去,除了小泉纯一郎首相从2001年到2006年任职5年多 之外,其他的首相任职长的一年左右,短的几个月时间。自民党一直长期执政,近年来民主党上台。我们接触到的日本各界人士都普遍反映,日本政治的发展落后于 经济的发展,缺乏强有力的政治领导,政权不断更换,任职太短,由此造成长期发展规划的缺失,政策朝令夕改,这成为影响日本发展的突出问题。

四是人口老龄化和少子化现象,成为制约经济发展的重要因素。人口数量不断减少和老龄化加剧,成为日本所面临的最为严峻的问题。一方面,日本的生育率 呈下降趋势,许多青年结婚都到30岁之后,平均每个妇女仅生育1.37名孩子;另一方面,日本又是世界上最长寿的国家,这就使得老龄化趋势加剧。目前65 岁以上的老人占总人口的比例达到24%,差不多每4个人中就有1位老人。在日本访问,可以看到一个常见的现象,出租车司机大部分是老年人,公路收费站的收 费员是老年人,宾馆服务员也大多是老年人。老龄化必然使日本经济发展后继乏力。

五是日本经济依赖“中国特需”,但又与中国处在复杂的关系之中。现在,中国成为日本的第一大贸易国,与中国的贸易占日本贸易总量的近20%,日本是 中国的第四大贸易国,对日本贸易占中国贸易总量的10%,中国还是日本最大的贸易顺差国。对于出口导向的日本经济来说,越来越依赖于中国,中国的经济快速 增长和进口扩大,被日本称为“中国特需”。但是另一方面,日本在军事战略上又依赖美国,构筑起日美同盟。由于历史的和现实的各种原因,中日两国关系错综复 杂,两国国民感情不和,媒体在其中扮演着重要角色。这些都在影响和制约着中日关系的发展。


日本经济发展对中国的镜鉴和启示

通过中日发展的对比,更加深了我们对我国发展的认识,提出以下几点思考:

第一,清醒地认识中国发展的定位。经过改革开放30多年来的发展,中国的国际地位和影响力空前提升。中国的发展引起全世界的惊叹,也令我们感到自 豪。现在到国外去的中国人越来越多,到处都可以看到中国人,到处都可以看到中国制造的商品。中国人的消费能力也引起世界各国的重视,许多国家和地区都在想 方设法吸引中国游客。特别是随着中国经济总量超过日本居世界第二位,中国成为世界第一出口大国,中国拥有的外汇储备世界第一,等等。世界对中国的看法正在 改变,中国人也在改变对自身的看法。国外有不少媒体报道,中国在许多方面已经具备了发达国家的特征,应该承担更多的责任和义务。在有人宣扬“捧杀论”的同 时,也有人在鼓吹“崩溃论”,认为中国经济即将崩溃。作为中国人,应该冷静清醒地看待中国自身的发展定位。总体上看,中国仍然并将长期是一个发展中国家, 国家大、人口多、底子薄、发展很不平衡的基本国情没有改变,我们与发达国家相比还有几代人的差距,我们的目标是到2020年全面建成小康社会,到本世纪中 叶基本实现现代化。要赶上发达国家的水平,中国还有很长的路要走,目前还处在艰难的爬坡过坎阶段。我国人均收入刚刚进入中等收入国家的较低水平,要迈过 “中等收入陷阱”进入高收入国家行列,还必须付出长期不懈的艰辛努力。

第二,抓住机遇加快发展自己。“知耻而后勇。”看到与日本发展的巨大差距,我们更应该自省自警自励,奋起直追,埋头苦干,紧紧抓住中国发展难得的重 要战略机遇期,加快发展自己。虚心地学习借鉴别人的长处和经验,创造性地为我所用,走中国特色的发展道路。要在国际竞争中立于不败之地,必须痛下决心提升 中国产品的科技含量和品牌质量,加快中国制造由低中端不断向中高端攀升。中国必须在世界高端制造中占有重要位置,成为世界制造强国。这里要特别提到日本的 企业家精神,他们骨子里追求自己制造产品的完美品质,为达到在同行和客户眼里的称誉,而不惜把99.99%的精力用在0.01%的产品提升上,真正做到精 益求精。日本公司老板一般不会整天待在办公室里,而是经常身穿工作服在生产第一线解决问题。中国企业家和中国制造业还缺乏这种精神,而又特别需要具有这种 精神。同时,我们要加快建设现代化的基础设施体系,特别是综合性的公共立体交通体系。由于人多地少的基本国情,中国不可能也不允许大量发展私人汽车,否则 将出现一场“汽车灾难”,一些国家的前车之鉴值得我们高度警惕。

第三,高度重视日本泡沫经济破裂的深刻教训。中国在现代化过程中,保持经济长期平稳较快发展至关重要,而最大的危险在于泡沫经济。导致日本泡沫经济 破裂有几个关键因素:一是日元短期内急剧大幅升值,造成国家财富迅速膨胀和放大;二是过度宽松的货币政策,造成金融泡沫扩张;三是房价急剧大幅上涨,造成 严重的房地产泡沫。结合这次国际金融危机的教训,更使我们深刻认识到,对国家宏观调控来说,管理好通货膨胀十分重要,而管理好资产泡沫更具有决定性的意 义。我们要牢牢把握发展实体经济这一坚实基础;要积极稳妥地推进人民币汇率形成机制改革,按照主动性、渐进性、可控性的原则,逐步增加人民币汇率弹性,保 持人民币汇率在合理均衡基础上的基本稳定,防止人民币短期内大幅升值引起热钱过度炒作;实施稳健的货币政策,切实加强金融审慎监管,始终注意防范和化解金 融风险;进一步加强房地产市场调控,坚持住房“民生+消费”的基本属性和发展定位,限制住房的资本属性和投资需求,防止和消除房地产市场泡沫,促进房地产 市场健康发展。

第四,更加重视生态环保和社会发展。中国已经成为世界上二氧化碳排放量最多的国家,能源资源消耗多,环境污染严重,节能减排面临着严峻的形势。我们 要学习日本的经验,高度重视节能环保,建设资源节约型和环境友好型社会。中国应该成为一个十分注重节约而不再是一个浪费的国家,使节约成为深入人心的观念 和国民的自觉行动。对比日本的节约,中国的浪费令人痛心。尤其是中国人大吃大喝的浪费,讲摆场比阔气的浪费,贪大求洋不计成本的浪费,需要痛下决心加以治 理。中国要在植树造林和绿化方面下一番大功夫,并将其作为各地官员政绩考核的重要标准。我们要建设和谐社会,首先要有良好的社会秩序,要把社会安全放在突 出位置,增强人们的安全感与社会的和谐度。收入分配已成为关系中国社会稳定和长治久安的大问题。借鉴日本的经验,必须下决心解决中国收入差距急剧扩大的问 题,特别是部分社会成员不当过高收入的问题,加强国家对收入分配的宏观调控,真正建立起促进社会收入分配公平的机制。

第五,全面提高我国的国民素质。随着中国对外开放不断扩大,入境游和出境游快速发展,中国国民的素质越来越引起国内外的广泛关注,其不文明的行为也 为许多人所诟病。全面提高我国的国民素质,已经成为我国道德建设和精神文明建设的重大任务。我们要从最基础的抓起,首先是讲诚信,其次是守规矩。诚信是道 德的基础,守规矩是法治的基础。一个人没有诚信,一切道德无从谈起。一个人不守规矩,法律也就成了一纸空文。人们常常感叹,中国在市场经济发展过程中道德 滑坡,坑蒙拐骗、制售假冒伪劣产品等行为严重污染和败坏了社会风气。因此,我们要在加强法治建设、依法严厉打击各种违法行为的同时,进一步加强道德建设。 建议制定《国民道德建设基本纲要》,重新进行一些最基本的道德普及性工作,比如,如何走路开车、如何礼貌地与人相处交往、如何讲实话不讲假话、如何工作学 习,等等。中国的许多交通事故都与不守规则有关,要从遵守交通规则抓起,培养中国人的规则意识。要下大力量抓中国的国民素质教育,加快与国际接轨步伐,提 高中华民族的文明水平。

第六,中日经济合作具有巨大的空间。中国与日本经济处在不同的发展阶段,具有很大的互补性。日本拥有先进的技术、管理和人才优势,中国拥有广阔的发 展前景、丰富的劳动力资源和不断发展的国内市场,这些都提供了中日经济合作的巨大空间。节能减排、生态环保、技术创新这些方面,都是重要的合作领域。应该 将中国的市场优势与日本先进的节能环保技术和管理更好地结合起来,推动两国的经济合作不断拓展。日本近年来出现了新的产业转移趋势,一个基本的考虑是产品 设计研发必须靠近市场需求,这样才能更好地设计出满足市场需要的产品。因此,日本企业的研发中心出现了向中国等国家转移的趋势。我们应该抓住这一国外产业 转移的新机遇,加快提升中国经济发展的整体水平。
2015年都快三倍了…
数据太陈旧了,不过同意这点:中日合作空间很大。
但是阻止中日合作,共同发展的敌人,不是中国自己,而是美国啊。
美国在日本有很多驻军,这点可不要忘了。
推进中日韩合作的日本大臣,莫名其妙的死了,难道不会怀疑有阻止力量吗……
 
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Its not in circle cos 2018 is close and Ah Q "spiritual victory" will go busted.

I do hope to see a smarter and better vision from E.Asian guys, at least, I can see some improvement from Cnese, they dare not feel so confident abt their power like in Jan,2015 any more, some of them also admit that RMB may fall to half....but seem like Im losing hope from a Jpese like u, bro...

Let this Japanese guy love China, bro.
 
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Let this Japanese guy love China, bro.
From the real life ( my company has CN partner, I worked for a Jpnese before) and from DPF , I think that Cnese is smarter than JPese and willing to learn from mistake faster than JPese.

If NEAU happen, Cnese surely will dominate JPese. Seem like our friend Nihonjin just realized how bad TPP bring to JP, but its quite late now. US capitalist is alway cruel, greedy, heartless,so he tries to seek for help from CN to get away from TPP that will suck JP wealth dry.

Just like Karl Marx :" there is no other ways but violent revolt. to overthrown the Capitalism" and it will cost the life of millions Cnese-JPese like VNese during VN war. If they r so coward to fight agaisnt US capitalist, then, they will never able to break the US contaiment.
 
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From the real life ( my company has CN partner, I worked for a Jpnese before) and from DPF , I think that Cnese is smarter than JPese and willing to learn from mistake faster than JPese.

If NEAU happen, Cnese surely will dominate JPese. Seem like our friend Nihonjin just realized how bad TPP bring to JP, but its quite late now. US capitalist is alway cruel, greedy, heartless,so he tries to seek for help from CN to get away from TPP that will suck JP wealth dry.

Just like Karl Marx :" there is no other ways but violent revolt. to overthrown the Capitalism" and it will cost the life of millions Cnese-JPese like VNese during VN war. If they r so coward to fight agaisnt US capitalist, then, they will never able to break the US contaiment.

The one that will be sucked dry will be Viet Nam, which will, hypothetically if TPP was to pass, place Viet nam in the Middle Income Trap. It will be Viet Nam that will be at the mercy of US corporations. This is one of the reason why Japan had refused to agree to most demands by US representatives for the TPP agenda. And one of the major leg barrier to why Japan will not .....sign the TPP. It will not pass if the Diet does not approve it. So Japan can be a 'by principle' partner of TPP, but still not implement TPP.

The point is that Japan is ironing out our Trilateral FTA with China and Korea in tandem with the TPP. We have options. Unfortunately for Viet Nam, your nation will be at the mercy of US corporations since Viet Nam seems to be all too eager to agree to all terms.........
 
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The one that will be sucked dry will be Viet Nam, which will, hypothetically if TPP was to pass, place Viet nam in the Middle Income Trap. It will be Viet Nam that will be at the mercy of US corporations. This is one of the reason why Japan had refused to agree to most demands by US representatives for the TPP agenda. And one of the major leg barrier to why Japan will not .....sign the TPP. It will not pass if the Diet does not approve it. So Japan can be a 'by principle' partner of TPP, but still not implement TPP.

The point is that Japan is ironing out our Trilateral FTA with China and Korea in tandem with the TPP. We have options. Unfortunately for Viet Nam, your nation will be at the mercy of US corporations since Viet Nam seems to be all too eager to agree to all terms.........

TPP will also destroy Japan's anime industry (which is Japan's one of the most popular exports to the world) because of draconian copyright policies set by the TPP. Some of the manga authors were actually "doujinshi" makers, or in other words, they started first in making fanworks before moving on with their original content.
 
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I feel current patriots in Viet Nam have the whimsical passions of Bao Dai and Ngo Din Diem and not the fortitude of Ho Chi Minh and Vo Nguyen Giap...

TPP will also destroy Japan's anime industry (which is Japan's one of the most popular exports to the world) because of draconian copyright policies set by the TPP. Some of the manga authors were actually "doujinshi" makers, or in other words, they started first in making fanworks before moving on with their original content.

Precisely, in fact before US entered the TPP dialogue, all partners were able to discuss and share views on proper "policies". After the US used liberty to enter the dialogue, the first thing they did was to re-write policies and most of these were pro-American.

This is one of the reasons why, if you look at TPP proceedings, Japan has blocked or resisted most American demands. Even with the recent 'agreement', there are still major disagreements between Tokyo and Washington.
 
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I feel current patriots in Viet Nam have the whimsical passions of Bao Dai and Ngo Din Diem and not the fortitude of Ho Chi Minh and Vo Nguyen Giap...



Precisely, in fact before US entered the TPP dialogue, all partners were able to discuss and share views on proper "policies". After the US used liberty to enter the dialogue, the first thing they did was to re-write policies and most of these were pro-American.

This is one of the reasons why, if you look at TPP proceedings, Japan has blocked or resisted most American demands. Even with the recent 'agreement', there are still major disagreements between Tokyo and Washington.

I guess the only thing that protects the Philippines from TPP is the 60/40 Economic Protectionist clause in our constitution... the same clause I do not agree on.
 
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I guess the only thing that protects the Philippines from TPP is the 60/40 Economic Protectionist clause in our constitution... the same clause I do not agree on.

Protectionism is not all bad, it helps protect the domestic economy, and it drives ingenuity in the domestic work market. What the United States wants is to remove all notions of protectionism so that their corporations are able to implement their "venture capitalism", which has a goal in buying out shares and dominate economic institutions and then have the ability to liquidate when they see fit. This is one of the reasons why Japan has been sternly resistant towards allowing American venture capitalists in our country.

That is an instrument of American 'imperialism' actually. It is good to see that China and Japan are now leveling the playing field by competing with the Americans in the M&A spectrum.

by the way, a funny illustration of a venture capitalist, lol:

venture-capitalism.jpg
 
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2015年都快三倍了…
数据太陈旧了,不过同意这点:中日合作空间很大。
但是阻止中日合作,共同发展的敌人,不是中国自己,而是美国啊。
美国在日本有很多驻军,这点可不要忘了。
推进中日韩合作的日本大臣,莫名其妙的死了,难道不会怀疑有阻止力量吗……


妹妹看得明白,赞!是的,东亚整合对美国当然不利。留意美国所谓“超级大国”的本质:
  1. 世界第一债务国(还有两项世界第一,逆差、财赤)需要东亚债权国(以及中东的石油美元)托着他们的货币。西方journalists喜欢吹China Collapse或Threat等等空话但绝对不会炒作关于美国债务的实际数据,例如:News Release: U.S. Net International Investment Position
  2. 世界最大军工利益集团需要卖军火,这都需要东亚的高科技材料(钢材、碳纤维)、CNC数控机床、原器件。李总理说过圆珠笔的例子,别说军工了。当然,东亚也是大市场,和平了军火卖给谁。
工业技术、财政数据等事实都说明,货真价实的世界强国是日德两个中型国家,以至台韩瑞士等小型经济。德瑞在欧洲,其他都是东亚文明,整合对中国和东亚是长远的发展之路。
 
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2015年都快三倍了…
数据太陈旧了,不过同意这点:中日合作空间很大。
但是阻止中日合作,共同发展的敌人,不是中国自己,而是美国啊。
美国在日本有很多驻军,这点可不要忘了。
推进中日韩合作的日本大臣,莫名其妙的死了,难道不会怀疑有阻止力量吗……
Put actual GDP figure aside, other points in that article in relation to what China can learn from Japan still stand valid today.

As most of Us all agreed the US is the biggest challenge the rise of China is facing, and one can arguably say that the collective west is behind the US to certain degree, thus it is wise for China to use all wisdom of the East to confront the wisdom of the West. With Japan and Korea included in the NEAU, with continuous cooperation with Russia or its euro-Asian Union, the date of NEAU formation is the date of the birth of the Asian century. China can not single handedly start a Chinese century, and psychologically and culturally the Chinese don't want become the sole superpower as well. It is too tiresome,isn't it?

Protectionism is not all bad, it helps protect the domestic economy, and it drives ingenuity in the domestic work market. What the United States wants is to remove all notions of protectionism so that their corporations are able to implement their "venture capitalism", which has a goal in buying out shares and dominate economic institutions and then have the ability to liquidate when they see fit. This is one of the reasons why Japan has been sternly resistant towards allowing American venture capitalists in our country.

That is an instrument of American 'imperialism' actually. It is good to see that China and Japan are now leveling the playing field by competing with the Americans in the M&A spectrum.

by the way, a funny illustration of a venture capitalist, lol:

venture-capitalism.jpg
Haha, you are qualified to take Blankfein's job at Goldman Sachs.

For that two cows, I prefer our Aussie grass eating cow than America grain eating one.
 
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The one that will be sucked dry will be Viet Nam, which will, hypothetically if TPP was to pass, place Viet nam in the Middle Income Trap. It will be Viet Nam that will be at the mercy of US corporations. This is one of the reason why Japan had refused to agree to most demands by US representatives for the TPP agenda. And one of the major leg barrier to why Japan will not .....sign the TPP. It will not pass if the Diet does not approve it. So Japan can be a 'by principle' partner of TPP, but still not implement TPP.

The point is that Japan is ironing out our Trilateral FTA with China and Korea in tandem with the TPP. We have options. Unfortunately for Viet Nam, your nation will be at the mercy of US corporations since Viet Nam seems to be all too eager to agree to all terms.........
Blah blah blah... nothing change in thr real life,bro. Every one can see JP stock market is falling, every one can see JP corps like Sony, are collapsing,too...but no one can see any serious problem from VN.

Pple may see the day Ford or GM will take control of Toyota, the last symbol of JP economy, in TPP too...:)
 
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For that two cows, I prefer our Aussie grass eating cow than America grain eating one.

:lol:

Blah blah blah... nothing change in thr real life,bro. Every one can see JP stock market is falling, every one can see JP corps like Sony, are collapsing,too...but no one can see any serious problem from VN.

Pple may see the day Ford or GM will take control of Toyota, the last symbol of JP economy, in TPP too...:)

Why are you resulting to petty attacks just because I don't agree with your uber simplistic prophetics, lol. My dear Viet friend, LOL.
 
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Totally agreed. I had the same feeling as you did, and had a couple of brawls with him too, but @Nihonjin1051 really changed some of my thoughts about Nihonjin.

Perhaps like some members have said, this NEAU is just a fantasy at the moment. But let's not forget that many, if not all, of the great discoveries in science were started from crazy ideas. Also, the simple fact that the patriots of China and Japan could talk rationally in peace given what is going on between two countries on media's headlines means a lot. In this sense this thread is the equivalent to the Ping pong diplomacy in the 1970s.

For this, @Nihonjin1051 deserves credit and my appreciation.

We all know that members here just express their opinion regarding NEAU and not represent the government position. Even if it's still a fantasy dream, nerveless it shown a good initiative of @Nihonjin1051 to create this thread and gather the feeling of members of this forum...and who know eventually that one of the members in this forum will become a great politician and push this NEAU concept into motion:D, both Japanese an Chinese have a great interest to seek peace and share the prosperity...and NEAU will be a very attractive organization for those who care about the future North East Asia.
不知道这些天发生什么了,是不是他更会做人了还是怎样… :''')
我在油管上遇到的日本人都不友好,unfortunately...

Put actual GDP figure aside, other points in that article in relation to what China can learn from Japan still stand valid today.
Definitely true..
China has a long way to go.Learning from Japan is necessary.
 
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Pertinent development:


Japan’s energy at crossroads / Russian oil, LNG may pose less risk

This is the fourth installment of a series.

On Jan. 3, tensions gripped the Prime Minister’s Office over Saudi Arabia’s announcement that it had severed diplomatic ties with Iran. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga referred to the issue at the very start of his first press conference of the new year on Jan. 5.

“Japan attaches the greatest importance to the regional stability of the Middle East. As our country depends on this region for most of the crude oil we import, we will strongly call for peace and stability there,” Suga said.

For Japan, which depends on the Middle East for about 80 percent of its total crude oil imports, the confrontation between the two countries is not a problem to be left to other nations.

The United States, which is no longer dependent on Middle Eastern oil thanks to booming domestic shale gas and oil production, has weakened its involvement in the Middle East, further destabilizing the region. In addition, terrorism by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, an extremist group based in Syria and Iraq, has spread, making the situation in the Middle East even more volatile.

Diversifying the procurement of natural resources and thus diversifying risk is an ironclad rule for the nation’s “energy security.” Russia is a country that could help Japan accomplish this goal and shed its dependency on oil from the Middle East.

“As you say in Japan: ‘An unsown seed cannot sprout.’ In order to achieve a vigorous economic outcome in the future, it is important to start working on joint projects today,” said Igor Sechin, president of Russia’s largest oil company, Rosneft.

Sechin made this remark when he visited Japan on Nov. 6 and attended an international conference on energy cooperation between Japan and Russia, held in central Tokyo.

Sechin, one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s closest associates, called on officials of Japanese companies to cooperate with Russia on such projects as the development of oil fields in East Siberia.

Energy resources lying unexploited beneath Russia have a great appeal to Japan. They would mitigate the effects of the unstable situation in the Middle East and reduce the number of days needed to transport energy to Japan to only two to three days, about one-tenth of the time required to transport it from the Middle East.

In fact, the ratio of crude oil and natural gas produced in Russia and imported to Japan is rising every year, accounting for about 9 and 10 percent of total imports.

Moscow is also counting on Japan to invest in Russia. Crude oil output in West Siberia, the country’s leading oil-producing region, has declined, making it more urgent for Russia to develop the untapped regions of East Siberia.

But Russia’s leading companies, including Rosneft, have been banned from procuring funds in U.S. and European markets due to economic sanctions imposed on Russia over the Ukrainian crisis.

“Russia desperately wants money and technologies from Japan,” said a source familiar with Japan-Russia relations.

Masumi Motomura, chief researcher of Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC), said: “Japan and Russia have common interests in the energy field. It is a win-win relationship.”

However, bilateral cooperation can hardly be said to be advancing smoothly.

One factor is the drop in oil prices. Against the backdrop of a global oil glut, prices of crude oil are on the decline, hovering in the $20-$30 per barrel range — a drop of nearly 50 percent from a year earlier.

One source at a trading house confided: “With prices this cheap we can’t make a profit. Without profits we can’t go out of our way to invest.”

A project under way in Vladivostok to construct a facility for extracting liquefied natural gas, in which Japanese companies are taking part, has also come to a standstill.

Negative images associated with doing business in Russia, such as rampant corruption, have also made Japanese companies shy away from business ventures there.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has taken part in as many as 12 summit talks with Putin over the course of his first and second administrations, building a strong relationship. Many experts view the present as a golden opportunity to advance bilateral cooperation between Japan and Russia.

Impact of 2011 disaster

The nation’s rate of self-sufficiency in energy, including nuclear power, stood at only 6 percent (in preliminary figures) in 2014. In 2010, prior to the Great East Japan Earthquake, it stood at 19.9 percent. Since the earthquake, Japan has failed to return to the pre-disaster level of self-sufficiency and has remained mostly dependent on foreign countries for natural resources.

Taking into account lessons learned from the oil crises of the 1970s, Japan increased oil imports from China and Indonesia and temporarily reduced its dependence on Middle Eastern oil, which fell to less than 70 percent of all imports.

However, as China and other countries experienced economic growth and increased their domestic consumption of petroleum, Japan’s reliance on Middle Eastern oil rose once again.

Since the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011, the demand for liquefied natural gas has also steadily risen. Japan has greatly diversified its LNG suppliers to include countries in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa. It is also expected to import shale gas from the United States, Canada and Mexico


Japan’s energy at crossroads / Russian oil, LNG may pose less risk - The Japan News
 
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:lol:



Why are you resulting to petty attacks just because I don't agree with your uber simplistic prophetics, lol. My dear Viet friend, LOL.
Bro, I dont attack any one here, I just tell them what will happen. Do any Cnese angry wt our prediction abt their RMB? No, not any more cos they realize that RMB falling to half is feasible.

TPP come out in 2018 is also feasible and 90% it will come our and let US have the right to suck JP dry.

So, I attack at no one, Vnese simply just let Cnese,JPese and other pple understand that an NEAU is just a wet dream, dont waste time for it as long as JP still under US capitalist's control :)
 
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