No Excuse for Violence: Obama Tells Burma

[Hammer-fist]

I meant, Burma has full diplomatic support from India and China.

China also supplies weapons but there is no direct military intervention.

Diplomatic support from India in what way exactly?

Can you be more specific?

Indian civil society organizations and liberals are calling for a resolution to the Rohingya crisis as it impacts India negatively too i.e. refugees.

Wouldn't India as an ostensible democracy be keen to see a peaceful resolution of the Rohingya crisis with basic human rights being respected?

 

[shahadat hussain]

Diplomatic support from India in what way exactly?

Can you be more specific?

Indian civil society organizations and liberals are calling for a resolution to the Rohingya crisis as it impacts India negatively too i.e. refugees.

Wouldn't India as an ostensible democracy be keen to see a peaceful resolution of the Rohingya crisis with basic human rights being respected?

YES i am shia..

and

Indian government sees myanmar as a pivot between itself and South East asia while china sees an alternative access to warm south asian waters.. So it has support of both.

US can have it's way anywhere in the world mostly cause the opposing voices are almost always fragmented. Here Burma has the backing of both the heavy weights of Asia and US seriously has lost all taste of any more military confrontation Nothing is happening to burmese govt. till they are in such an envious position !!

And practically I see no incentive for Indian govt. to go about preaching democracy in burma as long as they are toeing Indian line vis-a-vi militant groups and access to burmese hinterland.

 

[Hammer-fist]

YES i am shia..

and

Indian government sees myanmar as a pivot between itself and South East asia while china sees an alternative access to warm south asian waters.. So it has support of both.

US can have it's way anywhere in the world mostly cause the opposing voices are almost always fragmented. Here Burma has the backing of both the heavy weights of Asia and US seriously has lost all taste of any more military confrontation Nothing is happening to burmese govt. till they are in such an envious position !!

Interesting post with some good points.

1. India and China are BRIC states and nuclear powers and on the rise whilst the US is in decline.

The US trajectory has been like this:

Iraq: Full invasion, air operation + ground invasion.

Libya: air...no ground invasion.

Syria: no air operation ....no ground invasion.

2. However the US will still be topdog for a while.

The truth is this, the Burmese do not view the US, Rohingyas, Indians as the main enemy. The people they are most worried about are the Chinese.

China is slowly but steadily demographically changing the map of Burma and the Chinese minority there virtually control some parts of the country. To slowly escape the Chinese orbit the Burmese are now trying to turn towards the US, hence the "democratization" campaign.

If the Burmese do not do something major, they will become a semi-province of China in the future.

3. The US may have realized that on its own it can't do that much against India and China in the region so thus it is activating the Muslim card via the Rohingyas, as the Muslim bloc (if united) is a powerful counter to India and China.

4. Who knows what will happen in Burma in the future.

I believe in pan-Asian politics where we Asians i.e. Bangladeshis, Chinese, Indians work and trade with each other to strengthen each other and our region rather than fall to white divide and rule politics.

As a Bangladeshi nationalist I am not interested in annexing Arakan or creating more problems by annexing another region when we have enough mouthes to feed already. I simply want Rohingyas to be able to live in their own homeland as I am sure Indians would have wanted Kashmiri Pundits not to be expelled from Kashmir.

Simple issue of basic human rights.

 

[Hammer-fist]

UK Joins International Criticism of Kachin Conflict

By LALIT K JHA / THE IRRAWADDY| January 4, 2013 |
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KIA troops stand at attention during a military drill at a base in Kachin State. (Photo: The Irrawaddy)


WASHINGTON—The United Kingdom on Thursday joined the growing chorus of international criticism of the escalating conflict between the Burmese army and Kachin rebels, saying it was “deeply concerned” about the fighting. It called on both parties to open peace negotiations and appealed to the Burmese military to “heed their President’s calls for an end to hostilities.”

In a statement, Foreign and Commonwealth Office Minister Hugo Swire expressed dismay at the ongoing violence in northern Kachin State, which has pressured rebel forces and displaced tens of thousands of villagers.

“I am deeply concerned by the ongoing conflict between the Burmese Army and Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in Burma’s Kachin State, including recent reports of air strikes in the state. An escalation in hostilities would put at risk the chance of a lasting peace in Burma,” he said.

“It is important that all sides, including the KIA, come to the negotiating table and make renewed efforts to work towards lasting peace,” the minister said.

On Wednesday, the United State and the United Nations had also urged the warring parties to end their fighting and open a dialogue. The US has said it would formally express concern with the Burmese government over army airstrikes against Kachin rebels—attacks that were confirmed by government officials.

State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland said on Thursday that the US was having “conversations in Naypyidaw and in Rangoon, trying to get a little bit more clarity on exactly what’s going on because there have also been conflicting statements from the government and the military with regard to what’s going on.”

“But our view is that all sides need to cease and desist and get into dialogue with each other,” she added.

There have been doubts over just how much influence Burma’s President Thein Sein has over the country’s powerful military, which has fought wars with ethnic rebel groups for decades and ruled Burma until recent reforms began.

The UK Foreign Office addressed these concerns and stressed that the Burmese military should follow Thein Sein’s orders and its role within the country should be “normalized.”

“It is imperative that military commanders in Burma heed their President’s calls for an end to hostilities,” Minister Swire said.

“During my meetings with the Burmese government I highlighted the importance of normalizing the role of the Burmese military. Lasting democratic reform in Burma will not be successful unless they come under the direct authority of the Burmese government,” he added.

Swire also stressed “the importance of allowing the unhindered supply of humanitarian assistance to the civilian population,” adding that Britain pledged US $5.7 million in humanitarian food aid for civilians displaced by fighting across Kachin State, including in non-government controlled areas.

About 75,000 IDPs in Kachin State remain without international aid as the Burmese government had blocked UN access to the region.


http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/23100

 

[shahadat hussain]

Interesting post with some good points.

1. India and China are BRIC states and nuclear powers and on the rise whilst the US is in decline.

The US trajectory has been like this:

Iraq: Full invasion, air operation + ground invasion.

Libya: air...no ground invasion.

Syria: no air operation ....no ground invasion.

2. However the US will still be topdog for a while.

The truth is this, the Burmese do not view the US, Rohingyas, Indians as the main enemy. The people they are most worried about are the Chinese.

China is slowly but steadily demographically changing the map of Burma and the Chinese minority there virtually control some parts of the country. To slowly escape the Chinese orbit the Burmese are now trying to turn towards the US, hence the "democratization" campaign.

If the Burmese do not do something major, they will become a semi-province of China in the future.

3. The US may have realized that on its own it can't do that much against India and China in the region so thus it is activating the Muslim card via the Rohingyas, as the Muslim bloc (if united) is a powerful counter to India and China.

4. Who knows what will happen in Burma in the future.

I believe in pan-Asian politics where we Asians i.e. Bangladeshis, Chinese, Indians work and trade with each other to strengthen each other and our region rather than fall to white divide and rule politics.

As a Bangladeshi nationalist I am not interested in annexing Arakan or creating more problems by annexing another region when we have enough mouthes to feed already. I simply want Rohingyas to be able to live in their own homeland as I am sure Indians would have wanted Kashmiri Pundits not to be expelled from Kashmir.

Simple issue of basic human rights.

I cannot agree more but only one thing..
singapore is almost totally chinese. They purchase weapons from US and station them in India. So demography is of little value unless there are people there who wants a change in the policy at the national level.
I dont think there are any in burmese military.. ofc there may be many powerful businessman i guess who supports inclusion of burma in chinese orbit

 

[Hammer-fist]

Burmese military escalates war in Kachin state

By John Roberts

4 January 2013

Fighting has intensified in Burma (Myanmar) between the Burmese army and the separatist Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in the north of the country close to the Chinese border.
The Burmese military acknowledged on Wednesday that it has used air strikes against KIA positions, supposedly to relieve beleaguered troops needing supplies. The fighting is taking place just 13 kilometres from the town of Laiza, the KIA’s headquarters.
Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) official James Lum Dau told the media on Thursday that the air strikes had killed more than 300 people over the past week. A Financial Times article pointed to reports by human rights organisations that many people had been injured by aerial bombing and gunfire. The KIA is the KIO’s armed wing.
The military signalled its intention to step up operations against the KIA with an ultimatum to leave the Lajayang area by December 25, which was rejected. KIO spokesman La Nan told the Irrawaddy on December 25 that KIA bases in the area were “very important for us and our headquarters. There’s no way we’ll pull our troops out of there.”
The Obama administration reacted with alarm to the escalating conflict in Kachin State. US State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland told a news conference on Wednesday that the US was “deeply troubled’ by the attacks and called the two sides to engage in dialogue to end the conflict.
US concern is not for the victims of the fighting, but its potential to undermine the Obama administration’s carefully cultivated rapprochement with the Burmese military. Ending the protracted wars with various ethnic minorities in northern Burma was one of Washington’s provisos for resuming diplomatic relations, lifting sanctions, and forging closer economic and strategic ties.
All other northern separatist groups have reached peace deals with Burma’s military-dominated regime. But fighting, which erupted in Kachin state in mid-2011 after the breakdown of a 17-year ceasefire, has continued and intensified. About 70,000 people have been displaced over the past 18 months. The Kachin minority is predominantly Christian in overwhelmingly Buddhist Burma and number about one million, making it one of the largest of the country’s many ethnic groups.
A number of reports indicated that the Burmese military has been using heavy weapons against the Kachin rebels, including Russian-made helicopters, 105mm howitzers, 120 mm mortars and modern Swedish manufactured rocket launchers. An Asia Times web site article suggested that the use of heavy weapons was aimed at intimidating the KIA which has mounted effective ambushes in the mountainous terrain. In a recent engagement, the KIO claimed that 50 government soldiers were killed.
Both sides are seeking to strengthen their position amid pressure from Washington for a peace deal. The Democratic Voice of Burma reported that a US diplomatic delegation led ambassador Derek Mitchell last month met with Kachin state officials and peace mediators. Several unofficial rounds of negotiations between the government and KIO officials had taken place.
The generals and their business cronies are insisting on the lion’s share of economic resources in Kachin for themselves. The government calls for any peace deal to be based on the 2008 constitution imposed by the military. The minimum goal for the KIA/KIO is a greater degree of political autonomy, which is incompatible with the 2008 charter.
Significant interests are at stake. The area is rich in jade and other minerals as well as timber. There is the enormous potential of hydroelectric projects on Kachin’s rivers. The area also sits astride key trade routes between northern Burma and southern China. Last year fighting was centred around Hpakant township where 100 jade mining companies operate. In August 6,000 miners and residents were forced to flee the area.
The KIO has financed the KIA’s military campaigns through its control of the lucrative timber trade into the Chinese province of Yunnan, which is illegal both in Burma and China. According to the Kachin New Group, from October 2010 to April 2011 alone 40,000 tonnes of hardwood and teak were shipped to southern China.
Human Rights Watch analyst Matthew Smith told Radio Free Asia last August: “The economic impact of the war has been tremendous. Both parties to the war stand to gain economically, depending on the outcome. Multibillion dollar projects are being put on hold or are at risk of becoming military targets, to say nothing of the lost livelihoods of miners and traders.”
The war in Kachin has been largely ignored in the US and international media which has been hailing the Burmese government of President Thein Sein for its “democratic reforms”. This is in line with the Obama administration’s efforts to resume economic and strategic ties with the military-backed regime as part of its broader “pivot” to Asia.
As in the rest of Asia, Washington’s chief concern in Burma is to undermine the position of China, which, under conditions of Western sanctions and isolation, developed close connections with the Burmese military. Despite the Obama administration’s claims that Burma is moving towards the democracy, the military remain firmly in political control of the government and parliament. The continuing abuse of basic democratic rights was graphically shown last year in the crackdown on the persecuted Muslim minority in the western state of Rahkine.
Within Burma, the US has relied on opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD) to provide a threadbare veneer of “democracy” to the regime. Suu Kyi has become a virtual spokeswoman for the government’s policies, while at the same time calling for further “democratic reforms”—in effect, a greater say for the NLD.
Speaking to ethnic leaders on December 21, Suu Kyi piously called for removing “imbalances” and promoting “mutual respect” among the country’s ethnic communities. The way to do this, she said, was for representatives of the ethnic minorities to enter parliament. This is exactly the stance of the generals, who are attempting to bomb the KIA/KIO into submission.

Burmese military escalates war in Kachin state - World Socialist Web Site

 

[Hammer-fist]

I cannot agree more but only one thing..
singapore is almost totally chinese. They purchase weapons from US and station them in India. So demography is of little value unless there are people there who wants a change in the policy at the national level.
I dont think there are any in burmese military.. ofc there may be many powerful businessman i guess who supports inclusion of burma in chinese orbit

1. There are Chinese everywhere in south-east Asia.

Those Chinese who are more than 2 or 3 generations are Thai/Philipino/Vietnamese/Burmese first and just ethnically Chinese.

The older Burmese Chinese community are Burmese first including some of the fascist generals that ruled the country who were ethnically Chinese (including the one who stripped Rohingyas of citizenship).

The newer Chinese are the "danger" and are from Yunnan and either born in China or children of recent immigrants, they are Chinese first and not that integrated.

2. The demographic make up of a country can affect its policies.

The Jewish lobby in America make sure that America has pro-Israeli policies.

The Armenian lobby in France lobbies against Turkey.

Even if the Chinese lobby did not control the country per se, the Burmese would not like to see them the majority in parts of the country i.e. de facto parts of China (demographically though not on paper).

 

[alaungphaya]

I often don't reply to your posts, Hammer, because you are an idiot. But you bring up a relevant point for a change. Your implication that Ne Win (the General you are referring to) being Chinese should be read with a pinch of salt. Regrettably, insinuating that someone is Chinese is a political tool to slander people in Myanmar so not everyone who is claimed to be Chinese is Chinese.

Interestingly about Yunnan, the Kachin are practically Yunnanese.

On your point about the demographics, the government clearly saw the increasing influence of China and decided to swing back towards the US. Just in time, too.

 

[shahadat hussain]

1. There are Chinese everywhere in south-east Asia.

Those Chinese who are more than 2 or 3 generations are Thai/Philipino/Vietnamese/Burmese first and just ethnically Chinese.

The older Burmese Chinese community are Burmese first including some of the fascist generals that ruled the country who were ethnically Chinese (including the one who stripped Rohingyas of citizenship).

The newer Chinese are the "danger" and are from Yunnan and either born in China or children of recent immigrants, they are Chinese first and not that integrated.

2. The demographic make up of a country can affect its policies.

The Jewish lobby in America make sure that America has pro-Israeli policies.

The Armenian lobby in France lobbies against Turkey.

Even if the Chinese lobby did not control the country per se, the Burmese would not like to see them the majority in parts of the country i.e. de facto parts of China (demographically though not on paper).

Actually there was always an ethnic bias there in burma for almost all people. I know my great grandfather had to flee to Thailand cause the military junta when came to power put only two options infront of them. Either accept burmese citizenship or just leave the country

 

[Hammer-fist]

Rohingya Continue to Flee West Burma in Thousands


By SAMANTHA MICHAELS / THE IRRAWADDY| January 12, 2013 |
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Rohingya people perennially leave their homes and families in Burma and Bangladesh where they face extreme discrimination and are denied citizenship. (Photo: Reuters)


RANGOON–Thousands of people have fled from Burma’s restive Arakan State and neighboring Bangladesh in the first week of this month alone, the UN refugee agency reported, warning that the plight of displaced persons in the region continues to grow more severe.

More than 2,000 people left the region on smugglers’ boats in the first week of the year, most likely to other countries in Southeast Asia, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) said in a news briefing on Friday in Geneva.

That adds to an estimated 13,000 people who left the Bay of Bengal on smugglers’ boats in 2012, UNHCR said, with at least 485 still missing or believed to be dead after four reported boat accidents.

“It is unclear how many actually make it to their final destinations, where they often risk arrest, detention and possible refoulement through deportation to Myanmar [Burma],” UNHCR spokesman Adrian Edwards said in the news briefing, according to a statement released later by the agency. He was referring to an international customary law of non-refoulement that says migrants should not be returned to countries where they could be subject to persecution or human rights abuses.

Arakan State, in western Burma, was the site of severe sectarian violence last year between local Buddhists and Muslims. The United Nations estimates that more than 100 people were killed and more than 115,000 displaced in clashes beginning in June.

Tensions have eased since then, but tens of thousands of people, mostly Rohingya Muslims, continue to live in overcrowded camps in the state where food and other basic staples are in short supply.

The UNHCR report on Friday came the same day that about 700 Rohingya migrants were rescued from alleged human traffickers in southern Thailand.

The migrants said they had traveled voluntarily to Thailand as part of their journey to a third country, the Associated Press reported, adding that Thai authorities planned to deport the group back to Burma.

Edwards urged countries in Southeast Asia to keep their borders open to Rohingya migrants and others seeking asylum.

“UNHCR continues to seek access to individuals arriving by boat who are arrested and detained by government authorities,” he said, adding that the refugee agency had asked Thai authorities for access to newly-arrived migrants from Burma but were still waiting for a response.

An estimated 800,000 Rohingya Muslims live in Burma, mostly in Arakan State, according to UN estimates. The government does not grant them citizenship or recognize them as an official ethnic group, and although many Rohingya families have lived in the country for generations, locals often view them as illegal immigrants from Bangladesh.

In Bangladesh, Rohingya Muslims also face discrimination and are widely seen as a strain on limited resources.

In July, the Bangladeshi government ordered aid groups to stop helping Rohingya who were fleeing from violence in Burma.

http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/23907



The Burmese have already expelled half of the Rohingya population who are now in Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan (Karachi) at this rate after a decade Arakan will lose much of its Muslim population including Muslim villages and towns. After the Awami League regime is kicked out of power next year, Bangladesh must prepare contingency plans for joint military action in conjunction with Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and Turkey.













Arakan mosque destroyed by Burma’s border forces

On December 5, in the morning, a group of Nasaka from Inn Din Nasaka camp went to the new Barsara village and destroyed the “Belaro mosque” without giving any advanced warning to the villagers.


World Bulletin / News Desk

A Mosque was destroyed by Burma’s Border security force (Nasaka) on January 5, at Maungdaw Township, said a religious leader on condition of anonymity, the Stateless reported.
“This mosque was built in Barsara village, under the Nasaka area No. 8 of Maungdaw Township in 2011, after getting necessary documents from the concerned authorities.”
At first, the Barsara village was situated at the sea beach of Bay of Bengal; but this village was forcibly transferred to a mountain side in 2010 and 2011. It has 80 houses and two mosques. In 2010, the Nasaka transferred 40 houses to a Mountan adjacent and then in 2011, another 40 houses were also transferred to the same mountain side, according to a local leader.
After transferring all the villagers to a new village, they built on mosque for the new Barsara village instead of two mosques after acquiring necessary documents from the concerned authorities, the local more added.
However, on December 5, in the morning, a group of Nasaka from Inn Din Nasaka camp went to the new Barsara village and destroyed the “Belaro mosque” without giving any advanced warning to the villagers. After building, it was named “Belaro Mosque”, said a local trader.
Besides, on December 3, the District Administration officer, the Township administration officer of Maungdaw town went to Khadir Bill village, Khair Para, and Kolaba village and locked all the mosques.
Earlier, less than five people are permitted to go to the mosque to say five prayers, said a local religious leader who denied to be named.


Arakan mosque destroyed by Burma’s border forces | Islam | World Bulletin

 

[Hammer-fist]

Myanmar crisis triggers Rohingya influx

Jan 14, 2013, 02.27 AM IST


KOLKATA: Middle-aged Azizur Rehman had never heard of Jammu before. But his plight forced him to travel there for the survival of his offspring. Putting life at risk, Azizur headed for an unknown place, more than 3000 kilometres from his ancestral home in Arakan. He could not reach his destination finally. Midway, Azizur was arrested and now behind the bars for sneaking into India without valid documents. And he is not alone. In a fresh wave, hundreds of Rohingyas have started marching towards India for survival.

Recently, government railway police intercepted a group of 10 people from a suburban train. Most of them couldn't understand local language. Probe revealed that they all were from the Arakan (Rakhine) state of Myanmar. The Muslim population in Arakan is known as Rohingyas and for decades they are the victims of ethno-religious conflict with Buddhist population, backed by the Myanmar state. Their government does not accept Rohingyas as citizens and they are subject to state repression.

In 2012, following a fresh conflict, hundreds of Rohingyas started fleeing from Arakan. "We are from Balibazar on the outskirts of Sittwe. We used to work as masons there. My son Azizul performed well letter marks in school leaving examinations but he was not allowed to go to college. So, he also joined me as a mason. But we never thought of leaving our ancestral home, even after the state forces beheaded my sister Hasina for observing Eid. They also chopped off my two fingers," sobbed Azizur at Maniktala police station, adding that they were compelled to leave, But finally people once again started to flee when the Burmese started kidnapping their girls and women and trafficked them to Bangkok.

On a cold night nearly a year ago, Azizur and his relatives fled from Sittwe, crossed Naf river on a kayak and landed at Chhitagong coast of Bangladesh. "They (Bangladeshis) initially tried to push us back, but we were not ready. Finally, we got a camp to stay. But with no food and proper shelter, it turned out to be a nightmare. it was like a hell. No food. No proper shelter.

We were not even allowed to move out to earn," said Azizur's cousin Nur Mahommad. After spending 10 months there, they heard of Jammu in India, where Muslims also have a strong cultural heritage. "People in Kutupalang camp at Cox's Bazar told us to go to Jammu. We started from there two months ago with three families, including three women and two kids," said Nur.

Despite their language woes, they continued their journey. Even, starvation threats could not stop them. "At the stopovers every two to three days, we worked as labourers, earned money and bought food for survival. In several places, police and security forces took away money from us," recounted Azizul, a teenager. In their way they lost their last penny and remaining starved for four days they arrived in Kolkata but luck was not with them.

In Kolkata, they were intercepted and arrested. Like Nur and Azizur, families of several others were intercepted in Barasat recentlyin few days, hinting a fresh wave towards Bengal. "Touts, who were arrested with the Rohingyas, claimed that a few hundreds are waiting to cross the border. More influx is on the cards, as Thailand has decided to deport 900 Rohingyas," said an officer. UNHRC expressed concern over the fresh clash and requested neighbouring countries to open their borders for the Rohingyas. More than 4000 Rohingyas are now residing in different Indian cities. They don't have
have no full refugee status but India has allowed them to stay.

"We are not aware of their refugee status. We will have to act according to court order," said IG Prison Ranveer Kumar. Now question, who will move to court for these hapless people?

Myanmar crisis triggers Rohingya influx - The Times of India

 

[Hammer-fist]

!!!! MAJOR DEVELOPMENT !!!!


Kachin fighting unites ethnic armed alliance

January 14 | Author: Nan Thoo Lei (KIC) | Posted in Articles | Tags: ethnic, Kachin, UNFC

The United Nationalities Federal Council says they have come to a common agreement and are now prepared to help the Kachin if the government troops do not stop their offensive in Kachin State.
The alliance group made the public statement at a press conference held on the Thai-Burma border saying they have agreed on ways of helping Kachin from their recent meeting. According to Colonel Khun Ohkka – joint secretary of the UNFC, if the government does not stop the fighting, the group will take actions to help Kachin.
Speaking to Karen News, Khu Ohkka said.
“We are meeting Union Minister U Aung Min by the end of this month and we will demand him the stop to the fighting in Kachin State. After that, if the fighting doesn’t stop, we will take action according to what we’ve prepared.”
Colonel Khun Ohkka reaffirmed that the UNFC had made a fresh agreement again that for political process, the group will not talk with the government individually but to enter political dialogue together as a party with the government.
UNFC’s Khun Ohkka also added that they will make their plan of helping Kachin known to the public after they make their demand to U Aung Min and if their demand doesn’t met. According to Khun Ohkka, the group will try in all possible ways to help each other in order to keep strong armed and political alliances.
On November 9, 2012, the government peace negotiators led by Minister U Aung Min met with UNFC at Chiang Mai, Thailand. They agreed to try to solve political problems by political means. However, the UNFC statement issued early in January pointed out that despite the agreement, the current attacks on the Kachin indicates the government has reneged on its agreement.
The UNFC was initially formed on February 2011 with six ethnic armed groups – the Kachin Independent Organization, the Karen National Union, the New Mon State Party, the Shan State Progressive Party/Shan State Army, the Karenni National Progressive Party and the Chin National Front – in November, 2011 the UNFC was reformed with membership doubling to 12.
The Palong State Liberation Front, Lahu Democratic Union, Arankan National Council, Wa Natioanl Organizaiton, Pa’o Natianl Liberation Organization and Kachin National Organization are now all equal members of UNFC.

Kachin fighting unites ethnic armed alliance « Karen News

 

[Skies]

If the Rohinga problem escalates and BD Muslims from Cox's Bazar get involved themselves to support Rohingas against the willing of GOB, then the scenario would look like as the Tribal people of Pakistan get involved themselves to support Afghan Talibans against the willing of GOP. That will be threat to BD as Pakistan is facing today, I think.

 

[Hammer-fist]

THIS IS A MAJOR DEVELOPMENT AND COULD MEAN BURMA FALLS IN TO ALL OUT LIBYA/SYRIA STYLE CIVIL WAR.

The UNFC represents all non-Bamar ethnic groups in Burma (excluding Rohingyas) so there could be a war between Bamars and non-Bamars. The Bamars are the majority ethnic group that rule Burma.

It has been said that the rebel non-Bamar armies are in total bigger than the Burmese army.

If the rebels create a coalition army to expand control of their areas of Burma or even a ground offensive to capture Naypywidaw as anti-Gaddafi forces took Tripoli then the Burmese junta are in major trouble.

The other factor is the role of Thailand in this. The Thai military is far stronger than the Burmese and Thailand is historical enemies with the aggressive Burmese.

THE REBEL COALITION WOULD INCLUDE THE:

KARENS

SHAN STATE ARMY

The UNFC consists of 12 groups including Rakhine groups who are anti-Rohingya, so the UNFC is an anti-Muslim and anti-Rohingya organization, however it may launch an all out civil war in Burma.

If the US wants to use Thailand to support them the Bamar regime is in trouble.

 

[Hammer-fist]

According to the economist:

There is now plenty of evidence that, contrary to earlier promises made by the government, Myanmar’s army is throwing almost its whole weight against the KIA. At the beginning of the year footage shot by Free Burma Rangers, a quasi-military, humanitarian-support group, clearly showed helicopter gunships attacking rebel positions. Witnesses saw jet fighters being used as well, providing close air support to thousands of ground troops. According to some analysts, even in the darkest days of the old military regime, air power was never used in this way against the ethnic militias. So this would mark a significant ramping-up of the army’s aggressive efforts. They are gearing up a civil war that restarted only in 2011, after a truce that had lasted 17 years

.

Fighting in Myanmar's Kachin state: Lengthening shadow | The Economist

If the Burmese junta is throwing everything at some rebel guerilla army and can't even defeat them, how will they cope when the 5 other main rebel armies (there are even more than that) some of whom are bigger than the KIA (Kachin army) start attacking them?

If Thailand helps the rebel coalition, and the US helps Thailand then we could see a Thailand-friendly, pro-US Burma in the next few years which is part of the US' anti-Chinese ASEAN bloc.

This is just added pressure on the Junta to democratize.

They face a clear choice now:

MAKE FAIR PEACE DEALS WITH MINORITIES or FACE WAR AND OVERTHROWAL.