JF-17 deal in doldrums?
Columnist Gp Capt (Retd) SULTAN M. HALI discusses ramifications of Moscowââ¬â¢s reported refusal to China for JF-17s re-export to Pakistan.
Reports emanating from Russia have put a damper on Pakistanââ¬â¢s exuberance in its success story of JF-17 Thunder.
Kommersant, the Russian daily, on 31 October reported, ââ¬ÅThe Sino-Pak fighter deal is under threat due to Moscow's refusal to allow China the deliveries of war birds to Pakistan with Russian engines even as Beijing is mounting pressure to include Islamabad in the military customers list. China has appealed to Russia to include Pakistan in the list of countries with which Moscow has military-technological trade partnerships. Otherwise, China cannot fulfill its contract for the delivery of FC-1 fighter planes with Russian engines to Pakistan. China signed an agreement with Pakistan to deliver 150 FC-1 jets under the name JF-17 Thunder.
A Chinese delegation is arriving here (Moscow) for negotiations which will insist that Pakistan be included in the list of countries with which Russia has agreed to conduct military-technical trade, the report said adding otherwise, Beijing will have to default on its contract for delivery of FC-1fighter jets to Pakistan. The FC-1, also known as the Super-7, the first Chinese multirole fighter, is designed for the international market.
Chengdu Aircraft Industry began the development of the plane in the early 1990s. Around 50 percent of the costââ¬âUSD 75 millionââ¬âwas borne by Pakistan.ââ¬Â
China's National Aero-Technology Import and Export Corporation, Pakistan's Aviation Integrated Company, Israel's IAI, and Russia's OKB-Mikoyan Engineering Center all took part in the project. The FC-1 made its first flight in August 2003. However, under the existing contract with Beijing, Russia has agreed to fit only Chinese fighter jets with Russian engines.
"Unfortunately for Beijing, according to an addendum to the contract, China does not have the right to re-export planes with Russian engines to a third country," the report said. Also, "Pakistan is not included in the list of countries with whom Russia has military-technological trade meaning thereby that re-export of Russian military goods to Pakistan is not possible," state-run arms trader Rosoboronexport was quoted as saying by the daily.
"The Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation (FSVTS) confirmed that it did not intend to include Pakistan. Including Pakistan could harm relations with India with which Russia has signed an agreement not to deliver military technology to Islamabad," Kommersant added.
Experts in the field believe that China will not succeed in getting a concession from Russia on the issue of re-export and that it will have to seek a compromise with Pakistan, it said. "Russia will never give China the right to re-export its military technology to Pakistan, since that would threaten its multibillion dollar contracts with India," believes Russia/CIS Observer editor Maxim Pyadushkin. "However, Beijing will never drop the FC-1 program. The most important thing for the China is to get RD-93 engines that it can reverse engineer in the future, like they do with everything in China."
The Nationââ¬â¢s editorial of 3 November 2006 titled ââ¬ËJF-17 Deal in doldrumsââ¬â¢ spelt trouble for the JF-17 Thunder joint venture between Pakistan and China, which according to General Pervez Musharrafââ¬â¢s Independence Day-2006 speech, is likely to participate in the Pakistan Day Parade Fly Past on 23 March 2007. Earlier, when President Musharraf visited the JF-17 assembly line in China, he praised the project as a ââ¬Åleap forwardââ¬Â in Sino-Pak military cooperation.
The Nationââ¬â¢s editorial reads: ââ¬ÅWith Islamabad expecting to start taking delivery of 150 JF-17 Thunder fighters in 2007, the deal suddenly seems to have come under strain with China finding it difficult to convince Russia to include Pakistan in the list of countries with which it has a military-technological trade partnership. The complication has been caused by the contract signed between Beijing and Moscow which does not give the former the right to re-export planes with Russian engines to a third country. A Chinese delegation is now scheduled to visit Moscow to get Pakistan included among Russiaââ¬â¢s military customers. But if Beijing fails to win the concession it will offer Islamabad either another plane or return its money for the production of a multi-role fighter jet. This would be a huge blow for Pakistan, because it relies on the JF-17 induction not just for immediate upgradation of the PAF, but it has invested much time and energy in joining the development process so as to use the experience as a platform for future technology upgrades.
Russia is aware that refusal to include Pakistan in the list of its military trade partners will complicate trade relations with China, which brings in $2 billion annually. But Moscow is also concerned about the reaction from New Delhi, which buys military technology worth $1.5 billion a year. Before China signed an agreement to deliver 150 JF-17 Thunders to Pakistan, New Delhi had obtained guarantees from Moscow that it would not let Beijing re-export planes with Russian engines to Islamabad.
China might still bring its weight to bear on Russia regarding its future contracts but it is too early to say whether it would be able to get any concession for Pakistan in the teeth of the Indian opposition or whether it would offer substitute planes. It however remains difficult to understand why Islamabad did not clear this point up before committing so much effort and resources to the project.ââ¬Â
The news brought glee to the Indian camp and gloom to the Pakistanis. C Raja Mohan, in his article, ââ¬ËChina pressing Russia on Pak fighter projectââ¬â¢ carried by the Indian Express of 13 November 2006, reported: ââ¬ÅAs President Hu Jintao prepares to visit Islamabad later this month, Beijing has stepped up political pressure on Moscow to let it equip Pakistani fighter aircraft JF-17 Thunder Jets with Russian engines.
Russia has already agreed to supply Klimov RD-93 engines to the JF-17s being produced in China. Serial production of the JF-17 reportedly began earlier this year. Pakistan plans to buy 150-200 JF-17s in the coming years. Russian policy prohibits the re-export of Russian-origin equipment to third countries. For now, Pakistan is not on the list of countries that Russia exports arms to. Without Russian engines, Pakistanââ¬â¢s JF-17s will not fly.
Moscowââ¬â¢s decision to release the engines would underline three big political setbacks for India. Under pressure from New Delhi, which has bought billions of dollars worth of Russian arms over the last four decades, Moscow has held back from selling arms to Pakistan. While India was willing to swallow the resumed military relationship between Russia and China in the last decade, it will find it hard to accept Russian arms supplies to Pakistan.
The JF-17ââ¬â¢s take-off in Pakistan, with Russian assistance, would showcase the Indian failure to get the much talked about Light Combat Aircraft off the ground. The LCA, christened Tejas, was launched before China and Pakistan unveiled their plans for JF-17.
Worse still, Russian cooperation will allow China and Pakistan to leverage the JF-17 as a means to expand political influence with the security establishments in Asia, Africa and Latin America. China and Pakistan consciously designed the JF 17 for export.
Bangladesh, Myanmar, Egypt, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe are among the countries that have shown interest in buying the JF-17. At the Karachi Military Exhibition later this month, China and Pakistan are expected to make formal presentations on the JF-17.
Russia is aware the sale of engines to Pak JF-17s is bound to anger India. At the same time Moscow knows refusal to sell the engines to Pakistan will upset China. Beijing is now Moscowââ¬â¢s strategic partner, and trade and defence cooperation between the two countries has rapidly grown in recent years.
Reports from Moscow suggest China has been pressing Russia for an early decision on the sale of RD-93 engines. Though Russian officials insist no decision has been made on military cooperation with Pakistan, they have not denied Chinaââ¬â¢s request on RD-93 re-export is under active consideration.
Chinaââ¬â¢s own political prestige is at stake in ensuring the Russian sale of engines to JF-17, which has emerged as a symbol of the ââ¬Ëall weather friendshipââ¬â¢ between Beijing and Islamabad.ââ¬Â
Jointly developed by the Chinaââ¬â¢s Chengdu Aircraft Industries Corporation and Pakistan Aeronautical Complex, the JF-17 was conceived as a light fighter, with advanced technologies, the cost of developing it split between the two countries.
American aerospace companies were expected to join in the project. But military sanctions against China following the Tiananmen incidents in 1989, forced Beijing and Islamabad to turn elsewhere. Russian design bureaus participated in the development of the JF-17 airframe.
Janeââ¬â¢s Defence Weekly took the wind out of the sails of Pakistanââ¬â¢s detractors through its story: ââ¬ËRussia decides to supply Pakistan with fighter-aircraft enginesââ¬â¢. The story by Robert Karniol, Zuhai Air Show, China, with additional reporting by Ben Vogel, Janes.com Editor and Farhan Bokhari JDW Correspondent, Islamabad, categorically states: ââ¬ÅDirectly contradicting an earlier Russian position, a senior Chinese aerospace official publicly confirmed at the beginning of November that the Sino-Pakistani JF-17 under development will be powered by the Russian engine. The new position was supported by Russian officials.
ââ¬ËRight now we are using the RD-93 [in prototypes] and it's Klimov who will do the series production [of the engine]. The engine will be exported to Pakistan,ââ¬â¢ said Li Pei, development director at China's Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group, which is leading the programme and which also involves the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex.
Russian diplomatic and industry officials had previously stated without qualification that the RD-93 powering the FC-1, China's version of the jointly developed aircraft, will not be provided to Islamabad either directly or through re-export. Klimov had reiterated this position only a day before Li's statement. Moscow is thought to have hesitated over any deal involving provision of its military products to Pakistan over concerns centered on its long-standing defence relationship with rival India. Klimov, in particular, is involved in a Russian bid to supply New Delhi with 126 MiG-29 fighters for India's future multirole combat aircraft competition. Li reversed this view of the JF-17 programme when questioned by Jane's at a press briefing organized by Klimov during the China Air Show in October. He was flanked on the podium by senior officials from both Klimov and the Russian arms exporter Rosoboronexport. ââ¬ËIf we don't sell [ Pakistan the RD-93 engines] then someone else will. It's just a reality,ââ¬â¢ said Klimov Director General Alexander Vatagin in a follow-up comment. Oleg Novikov, a senior official with Rosoborenexport, re-enforced the change in position over export of the engine. ââ¬ËThe process to [arrange the provision to Pakistan of the RD-93] is ongoing,ââ¬â¢ he explained. ââ¬ËThe export license will be granted provided it doesn't contravene the export laws of Russia or China.ââ¬â¢ The Pakistan Air Force earlier in 2006 told Jane's that it had received firm assurances from China that the RD-93 issue will not prove a problem despite repeated Russian statements to the contrary.
Following the confirmation, Pakistan plans to actively market the JF-17 to potential buyers from Africa, Asia and the Middle East, at the IDEAS 2006 exhibition due to take place in Karachi from 21-24 November. The JF-17 is intended to replace several F-7 variants currently flown by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) as second-line fighters. The first formal test flight in Pakistan is due to take place on 23 March 2007, with the PAF expected to order at least 150 platforms for inductions to begin from late 2008 or early 2009. The aircraft underwent a major redesign at the end of 2005 and sources told Jane's that the revised design has a maximum speed of Mach1.8. A Pakistani official said that improvements to the JF-17 are likely to make it ââ¬Ëa much more appealing aircraft for customers in the region surrounding Pakistan and one which many would consider comparable to aircraft they would purchase from the Western worldââ¬â¢. An Arab diplomat in Islamabad supported this view saying the aircraft could complement the more advanced fighters available from Europe and the US. ââ¬ËThe big incentive to buy this aircraft would be that it doesn't come accompanied by political complications, objections from different lobbies opposed to a deal with an Arab Muslim country,ââ¬â¢ the diplomat said. Islamabad is also promoting its geographical proximity to the Middle East, which would allow for shorter turn-around times for maintenance and repair work.ââ¬Â
Pakistan Air Force meanwhile is not perturbed by the possible Russian embargo. It believes that China will keep its side of the bargain to ensure the availability of a suitable engine for the joint venture. The Chief Project Director for the project, Air Vice Marshal Farhat Hussain, when contacted by this scribe commented: ââ¬ÅThe JF-17 Thunder is very much on track!ââ¬Â
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Group Captain S M Hali has served in Pakistan Air Force for thirty years and has flown over 4500 hours and worked on various command and staff appointments, which include the command of a squadron, duties as Air and Naval Attaché and Director Public Relations for PAF. He is a Graduate of PAF Staff College, Joint Services Staff College, has Honors degree in Business Administration and Masters in Mass Communication and is currently pursuing an M Phil degree leading to PhD in Mass Communication. He is a member of the prestigious International Public Relations Association (IPRA) of UK. He was a member of the pioneering team that established Indus Vision TV Channel and has set up numerous FM Radio Channels and produced over three thousand hours of programming content. He provides services as a Visiting Faculty for Mass Communication in a number of Universities. He has produced numerous drama serials and documentaries for TV and Radio and hosted a number of Talk shows. He has authored over five hundred articles for various national and international dailies and magazines. He writes a regular weekly column in daily Nawa-i-Waqt and The Nation and contributes to Defence Journal as a defence and political analyst. He is currently working as Managing Editor of a news agency, Independent News-Pakistan (INP), which is a multi-dimensional establishment in Pakistan providing news service in English, Urdu, Sindhi and Arabic languages as well as quality news pictures and video clips to hundreds of subscribers in Pakistan and abroad. For his meritorious services, the Government of Pakistan has conferred on him Sitara-e-Imtiaz (Military).