New world order since 24 February 2022 Ukraine Crisis

[vi-va]

Hey guys,

This thread is limited to New World Order after Ukraine Crisis, not War Zone Details.

Here is what I think:

• Short term, Iran is one of the beneficiary for sure.
• Long term, I am not so sure about Iran and China loss versus gain if we put chain reaction from EU, US and world order changes into consideration.
• US prestige further weakened.
• European Union Force will be strengthened, increase military budget.
• Germany will be rearmed.
• NATO will be more united in the short term, but NATO will have to compete with the European Union Force, more divided.
• India has lost faith on QUAD because of 2020 Galwan Valley skirmish. QUAD used India as cannon fodder, no concrete support.
• India will balance relationship among Russia, US, EU and China. Back to India Congress party traditional foreign policy.
• AUKUS is shaken, US security guarantee will be questioned by Australia, not publicly.
• Japan will strengthen military, increase military budget, decrease dependence on US.
• Taiwan will strengthen military, increase military budget, decrease dependence on US.

Ukraine Crisis created an example that strong nation can conquer weak one as long as it benefits the former country.

Ukraine is a former Soviet country, but still an independent country. I don't deny the close culture and shared history between Russia and Ukraine, also I am totally aware of the dirty tricks US and EU played in past 31 years in Ukraine.

I fully understand Russia concerns, especially security concerns. But still it broke the world order after WW2, which based on UN principles.

Pandora's box is open, we can't ignore it and pretend everything is the same as before.

Welcome to New World Order.

 

[vi-va]

US invaded many countries, but no annexation of territory.

Israel did, but it's relatively small.

India conquered Sikkim, relatively small.

Ukraine is as large as UK and Germany combined.

 

[Menthol]

USA is creating puppet governments worldwide.

The last are Ukraine and Kazakhstan.

Crossing the redline toward Russia.


The new world order is whatever USA is going to give up their "democracy" expansion, or an all-out confrontation against Russia that ended the modern world.

 

[Joe Shearer]

USA is creating puppet governments worldwide.

The last are Ukraine and Kazakhstan.

Crossing the redline toward Russia.


The new world order is whatever USA is going to give up their "democracy" expansion, or an all-out confrontation against Russia that ended the modern world.

in my opinion the world was better off whn the two super powers were led by a sex maniac n an alchoholic.

 

[vi-va]

View attachment 819466
in my opinion the world was better off whn the two super powers were led by a sex maniac n an alchoholic.

Americans will miss the old golden days under Clinton, when US literally can do anything without severe consequence.

Then Bush came in, did almost everything he wanted, screw things up.

Then Obama try to fix it, failed.

Followed by Trump, try to fix it in another way, worse.

At last, Biden come, people thought he will be Obama third term, but actually Trump second term.

What a wonderful world.

 

[Genghis khan1]

Afghanistan brings bad JuJu. whoever tries to control it, end up going down.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Hey guys,

This thread is limited to New World Order after Ukraine Crisis, not War Zone Details.

Here is what I think:

• Short term, Iran is one of the beneficiary for sure.
• Long term, I am not so sure about Iran and China loss versus gain if we put chain reaction from EU, US and world order changes into consideration.
• US prestige further weakened.
• European Union Force will be strengthened, increase military budget.
• Germany will be rearmed.
• NATO will be more united in the short term, but NATO will have to compete with the European Union Force, more divided.
• India has lost faith on QUAD because of 2020 Galwan Valley skirmish. QUAD used India as cannon fodder, no concrete support.
• India will balance relationship among Russia, US, EU and China. Back to India Congress party traditional foreign policy.
• AUKUS is shaken, US security guarantee will be questioned by Australia, not publicly.
• Japan will strengthen military, increase military budget, decrease dependence on US.
• Taiwan will strengthen military, increase military budget, decrease dependence on US.

Ukraine Crisis created an example that strong nation can conquer weak one as long as it benefits the former country.

Ukraine is a former Soviet country, but still an independent country. I don't deny the close culture and shared history between Russia and Ukraine, also I am totally aware of the dirty tricks US and EU played in past 31 years in Ukraine.

I fully understand Russia concerns, especially security concerns. But still it broke the world order after WW2, which based on UN principles.

Pandora's box is open, we can't ignore it and pretend everything is the same as before.

Welcome to New World Order.

Good points, but surely Galwan was long before QUAD. Was there an opportunity for India to lose faith in QUAD because of Galwan?

Americans will miss the old golden days under Clinton, when US literally can do anything without severe consequence.

Then Bush came in, did almost everything he wanted, screw things up.

Then Obama try to fix it, failed.

Followed by Trump, try to fix it in another way, worse.

At last, Biden come, people thought he will be Obama third term, but actually Trump second term.

What a wonderful world.

View attachment 819471

So, so true.

 

[Genghis khan1]

China knows well that they are next in line. If Russia goes down. It will be very difficult for China to take on NATO by it self.

 

[GWXP]

Taiwan will learn that since USA didn't have the balls to enter the conflict against Russia to protect Ukraine, there is little chance that USA will enter the conflict against China if it invades Taiwan.

 

[The Lost Brother]

Iran will be the one gaining the most out of it. During sanctions they have grown their industry to a point where they can compete with the West. They have among the best UAV's and 5th Generation stealth fighter. Apart from that they have natural resources like petrol & gas and a young population.

 

[vi-va]

Good points, but surely Galwan was long before QUAD. Was there an opportunity for India to lose faith in QUAD because of Galwan?


So, so true.

Quadrilateral Security Dialogue​

Quadrilateral Security Dialogue - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

QUAD started in 2007, long before 2020 Galwan Valley skirmish. QUAD is not a military alliance back then. (Galwan Valley as a dispute was older for sure)

I am sure Modi and Xi talked about QUAD for several times when they met, such as in Sep 2014, May 2015 when Xi visited India, and Sep 2016, Apr 2018 when Modi visited China.

QUAD was not a formal alliance before Trump held Oval Office, also China-US relationship was not as bad as it is today. So I guess BRI and QUAD are kind of compatible, coexistence.

QUAD was transforming into new NATO of Indo-Pacific gradually since Asia-Pacific Rebalance strategy of Obama. Then speeded up since 2017, when US try to encircle China explicitly, with containment policy applied, such as trade war, high-tech war, info war, as well as instigation riots in Hong Kong, interference on Taiwan issues.

As you can see, QUAD as new NATO is not compatible with China India joint statement. US policy is aggressive, offensive, QUAD is the military tool. It's up to India to decide to join in QUAD or not.

Here are the joint statement for your reference.

PM Modi, President Xi Jinping Issue Joint Statement: Highlights

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping held summit talks in Delhi today for 90 minutes, more than the allotted time.

www.ndtv.com

MEA | Statements : Bilateral/Multilateral Documents

Joint Statement between the India and China during Prime Minister's visit to China

www.mea.gov.in

 

[Joe Shearer]

Americans will miss the old golden days under Clinton, when US literally can do anything without severe consequence.

Then Bush came in, did almost everything he wanted, screw things up.

Then Obama try to fix it, failed.

Followed by Trump, try to fix it in another way, worse.

At last, Biden come, people thought he will be Obama third term, but actually Trump second term.

What a wonderful world.

View attachment 819471

So, so true.

Quadrilateral Security Dialogue​

Quadrilateral Security Dialogue - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

QUAD started in 2007, long before 2020 Galwan Valley skirmish. QUAD is not a military alliance back then. (Galwan Valley as a dispute was older for sure)

I am sure Modi and Xi talked about QUAD for several times when they met, such as in Sep 2014, May 2015 when Xi visited India, and Sep 2016, Apr 2018 when Modi visited China.

QUAD was not a formal alliance before Trump held Oval Office, also China-US relationship was not as bad as it is today. So I guess BRI and QUAD are kind of compatible, coexistence.

QUAD was transforming into new NATO of Indo-Pacific gradually since Asia-Pacific Rebalance strategy of Obama. Then speeded up since 2017, when US try to encircle China explicitly, with containment policy applied, such as trade war, high-tech war, info war, as well as instigation riots in Hong Kong, interference on Taiwan issues.

As you can see, QUAD as new NATO is not compatible with China India joint statement. US policy is aggressive, offensive, QUAD is the military tool. It's up to India to decide to join in QUAD or not.

Here are the joint statement for your reference.

PM Modi, President Xi Jinping Issue Joint Statement: Highlights

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping held summit talks in Delhi today for 90 minutes, more than the allotted time.

www.ndtv.com

MEA | Statements : Bilateral/Multilateral Documents

Joint Statement between the India and China during Prime Minister's visit to China

www.mea.gov.in

Thanks, this is all very new to me. I had a superficial idea about these, but it was quite different. Must read these carefully.

 

[Trango Towers]

Taiwan will learn that since USA didn't have the balls to enter the conflict against Russia to protect Ukraine, there is little chance that USA will enter the conflict against China if it invades Taiwan.

It's interesting how all Russians have been targeted by the west. Banking institutions air travel and even Russian asset frozen.
Now China has heavy heavy trade with the west. They can take Taiwan militarily but the financial cost will be enormous. Will the west cut all trade with china as well? Remember now news are openly stating

1. War in Europe
2. Blonde hair blue eyed people suffering.

These 2 point are critical. Taiwanese are nit white nor European and hence worth nothing

 

[vi-va]

Smaller countries worried their own security and territorial integrity, that's natural and reasonable.

US will steal your money, threaten you, instigate riots, color revolution, blackmail you, spy you, but they do have a basic principle that they don't take your country away, they don't want to merge your country with US, they don't want your refugees.

Otherwise, US can easily bomb Mexico, take their country. I believe most Mexicans are willing to be Americans, they don't have any loyalty to Mexico at all. But US refused to do that in past decades.

Or US can take Canada, they are ruling Canada indirectly, but not directly. I don't think Canada can resist US invasion if US do what Russia did on Ukraine.

US is not a territory hunger country, they are interest motived, they are capitalists, they are bad, but they do not take your country, and announce your country is mine.

I don't defend US, I do understand Ukraine is part of Soviet, I do understand Russia's concerns, and it's reasonable to some extent.

But if Russia feel they are victim, and they should take back what they lost, that's completely another thing.

By Russia logic:

1. Turkey should take back Balkan including Greece
2. Greece should take back the Anatolian Plateau.
3. Turkey should take back all territory of Ottoman, including Crimea, Saudi Arab, North Africa.
4. Russia should take back Central Asia.
5. China should take back Okinawa and Korea, as well as Vietnam
6. Germany should take back land from Poland, Alsace–Lorraine as well as Austria
7. Native Americans should take back America
8. Native Australians should take back Australia
9. Dravidians should take back India subcontinent.
10. Africans should take back Eurasia.
11. Homo sapiens should take back the whole world.

 

[Turingsage]

India has lost faith on QUAD because of 2020 Galwan Valley skirmish. QUAD used India as cannon fodder

Only Morons like you keep saying QUAD is a military grouping. Its no such thing as has been pointed out by everyone with an ability to read and a drop of common sense.
Just as China, Iran, Russia have to fight their own battles, so does India.
India has ALWAYS refused to join any military alliance since its independence in 1947