It matters little to Pakistan who is running the show in India. The only fact that we are aware of (known knowns in Rumsfeld's parlance) is that neither side can control the escalation once the conflict starts after serious civilian casualties.
As for India's claims that its pre-emptive strikes will happen if they believe Pakistan is behind an incident, the very same argument could have been made by Pakistan to hit Indian consulates in Afghanistan based on our intelligence that Indian support was being provided to TTP etc. So this is a slippery slope. Given the discord in India and IoK proper, there is very little that Pakistan has to do. Indian fascism is giving boost to this discord all by itself.
On top of that, Modi faces a self-created dilemma. The dilemma is that he himself has hyped the stance that India will teach Pakistan a lesson with his "this is a trailer..." threat. Now the expectation within his hindutva base is that he will carry through with his threat. The problem for India is that it does not have sufficient military capability to inflict damage to Pakistan without plunging India into a full-fledged war which will see catastrophic damage to India as well. His generals think they can limit the conflict, but as mentioned above, neither the Pakistani military nor the Indian side has the ability to control the spiral despite what Modi's military advisers claim.
It is in Pakistan's interest to ensure that each Indian provocation is responded to with the same or greater quantum and Pakistan has the military wherewithal to do this. When Pakistan does this each time, then the desired benefit of conducting "punitive" strikes becomes questionable given the costs incurred. After 4 wars (Indians claim they have won each one), yet there is no change in Pakistan's position and support for the Kashmiris in IoK so a 5th one is not going to change much either (the only difference is that it will be far more damaging than all of the past wars).
