Moin91
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Sunday, October 07, 2007
Ghazi Salahuddin
What they call the chase sequence -- the climactic moments in a movie that constitute a cathartic experience at the end of a story -- has now become a lengthy serial in Pakistan's present politics. We are constantly kept on tenterhooks. First, the finalization of a deal between President General Pervez Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto, euphemistically described as national reconciliation, yielded its harvest of 'breaking news' on our news channels. Then, the Supreme Court judgment on Friday came as a brilliant temporizing move.
We can now wait, with bated breath, for the resumption on October 17 of the hearing of petitions challenging Musharraf's candidature and for Benazir's return to Pakistan on October 18. One may suggest that Musharraf has won this game. Or hasn't he already lost it, irrespective of the made-in-the-US deal or the judgment of the Supreme Court? Meanwhile, the chase sequence must continue. This is not a promise for a happy Eid.
Normally, political analysts and even ordinary citizens seem certain about the opinions they hold, particularly with reference to who they support or oppose. They invest their passions in the positions they take. But many of these certainties have been shattered by the deal and what it entails. An across the board indemnity for politicians who have been in power and for bureaucrats who served in their administrations from 1988 to October 1999 is bound to raise very disturbing moral and legal issues.
What does this mean for that relentlessly pursued slogan of accountability? And we thought that the Supreme Court judgment of July 20 was a new beginning for the nation as the triumph of morality and justice. That was obviously a great setback for Musharraf. When he met Benazir exactly a week later in Abu Dhabi, his vulnerability may have had an impact on their negotiations. What has happened since may appear to have bolstered his position. At the same time, he is greatly weakened. Even if his election in uniform is validated by the Supreme Court, which many observers see as unlikely, the fading out of the old soldier is quite visible.
A significant event will take place on Monday, when General Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani would assume his charge as Vice Chief of Army Staff along with General Tariq Majeed's appointment as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee. If Musharraf does survive as the president, he will soon be without his uniform and will have to contend with a prime minister chosen by the newly elected National Assembly. If Benazir happens to be the next prime minister, though there are still many barriers to be crossed, the power tussle, carrying its own burden of history, will be unavoidable.
How will Musharraf deal with this gradual and apparently certain loss of authority that has been almost absolute so far? This spectacle is, of course, only one dimension of the present crisis of Pakistan in which several other characters are striving to get to the centre of stage. A lot might happen before Benazir arrives in Karachi on October 18 but she is quite adept at playing the leading role in any political encounter.
By the way, preparations for her welcome seem to be setting the stage for a blockbuster. There are these huge hoardings, banners, posters and wall-chalking. This effort matches the tempo of massive government advertisements and television commercials, particularly of the government of the Punjab. Someone should calculate the amount that has been spent on these commercials, obviously from the national exchequer. Perhaps they should spend a little more money and appoint some consultants to figure out the impact of these ads on their future electoral prospects. A much cheaper option would be to read the articles that explained the negative impact of the 'India Rising' campaign by the previous Indian government led by the BJP.
I hesitate to look into the feelings of traditional supporters and sympathizers of the Pakistan People's Party with regard to the deal that Benazir has made with Musharraf because it demands more patience and thought than I am immediately capable of. In spite of its occasional derelictions, this party of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto -- who was executed by Musharraf's predecessor as a military ruler -- been the reservoir of some of the most potent political capital in Pakistan. A lot will depend on what happens to this powerful impulse in our polity as events unfold in the coming weeks and months.
However, my focus this week is the equally exciting story of Musharraf's struggle to retain power. There was this interesting AFP story released on Friday with the heading: 'Napoleon, Nixon hold key to Musharraf's psyche'. Napoleon Bonaparte and Richard Nixon, according to AFP, are Musharraf's stated leadership models. He has referred to Napoleon in several interviews and AFP quotes Musharraf from his official website, talking about the bids to kill him: "I call myself 'Lucky'. Napoleon had said, besides all qualities a leader has to be lucky to succeed. Therefore I must succeed".
As for his fondness for Nixon, we are reminded about the US president's reliance on 'realpolitik'. Nixon's 'Leaders' is said to be one of Musharraf's favourite books. His dependence on turncoats and 'lotas' is clearly a Pakistani version of 'realpolitik'.
Now, it would be callous to be talking about Waterloo. Watergate -- isn't this similarity rather uncanny -- may be more relevant. It is about the media and its ability to do investigative reporting. We are constantly reminded that Musharraf has 'given' the media this freedom and it is true that we have more freedom now than ever before. But what are the uses of this freedom? What would have been the worth of press freedom in the US if Nixon had not resigned after the reporting of the Watergate scandal? In our case, nothing happens when the media exposes the wrongdoings of our high functionaries.
Take the example of the brutal police attack on journalists and lawyers and civil society activities in Islamabad on September 29. It deserves more attention than is possible in these treacherous times. And I am personally grieved to learn that a former journalist of this newspaper and a very committed and temperamentally a very quiet and steadfast researcher, Adnan Sattar, was severely hurt in that encounter. The police action showed the present mindset of this government. Its heavy-handed suppression of protest is a sign of desperation. Another example was the operation mounted on the day of Nawaz Sharif's arrival at the Islamabad airport. Before that, May 12 was a very tragic illustration of what this government is capable of.
Social scientists would tell us that such a brutal exercise of power by the law enforcement agencies is an unmistakable sign of the loss of authority of the rulers. So, what can we expect if Musharaff is weakened and he still remains at the helm?
Musharraf's loss of authority
Ghazi Salahuddin
What they call the chase sequence -- the climactic moments in a movie that constitute a cathartic experience at the end of a story -- has now become a lengthy serial in Pakistan's present politics. We are constantly kept on tenterhooks. First, the finalization of a deal between President General Pervez Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto, euphemistically described as national reconciliation, yielded its harvest of 'breaking news' on our news channels. Then, the Supreme Court judgment on Friday came as a brilliant temporizing move.
We can now wait, with bated breath, for the resumption on October 17 of the hearing of petitions challenging Musharraf's candidature and for Benazir's return to Pakistan on October 18. One may suggest that Musharraf has won this game. Or hasn't he already lost it, irrespective of the made-in-the-US deal or the judgment of the Supreme Court? Meanwhile, the chase sequence must continue. This is not a promise for a happy Eid.
Normally, political analysts and even ordinary citizens seem certain about the opinions they hold, particularly with reference to who they support or oppose. They invest their passions in the positions they take. But many of these certainties have been shattered by the deal and what it entails. An across the board indemnity for politicians who have been in power and for bureaucrats who served in their administrations from 1988 to October 1999 is bound to raise very disturbing moral and legal issues.
What does this mean for that relentlessly pursued slogan of accountability? And we thought that the Supreme Court judgment of July 20 was a new beginning for the nation as the triumph of morality and justice. That was obviously a great setback for Musharraf. When he met Benazir exactly a week later in Abu Dhabi, his vulnerability may have had an impact on their negotiations. What has happened since may appear to have bolstered his position. At the same time, he is greatly weakened. Even if his election in uniform is validated by the Supreme Court, which many observers see as unlikely, the fading out of the old soldier is quite visible.
A significant event will take place on Monday, when General Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani would assume his charge as Vice Chief of Army Staff along with General Tariq Majeed's appointment as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee. If Musharraf does survive as the president, he will soon be without his uniform and will have to contend with a prime minister chosen by the newly elected National Assembly. If Benazir happens to be the next prime minister, though there are still many barriers to be crossed, the power tussle, carrying its own burden of history, will be unavoidable.
How will Musharraf deal with this gradual and apparently certain loss of authority that has been almost absolute so far? This spectacle is, of course, only one dimension of the present crisis of Pakistan in which several other characters are striving to get to the centre of stage. A lot might happen before Benazir arrives in Karachi on October 18 but she is quite adept at playing the leading role in any political encounter.
By the way, preparations for her welcome seem to be setting the stage for a blockbuster. There are these huge hoardings, banners, posters and wall-chalking. This effort matches the tempo of massive government advertisements and television commercials, particularly of the government of the Punjab. Someone should calculate the amount that has been spent on these commercials, obviously from the national exchequer. Perhaps they should spend a little more money and appoint some consultants to figure out the impact of these ads on their future electoral prospects. A much cheaper option would be to read the articles that explained the negative impact of the 'India Rising' campaign by the previous Indian government led by the BJP.
I hesitate to look into the feelings of traditional supporters and sympathizers of the Pakistan People's Party with regard to the deal that Benazir has made with Musharraf because it demands more patience and thought than I am immediately capable of. In spite of its occasional derelictions, this party of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto -- who was executed by Musharraf's predecessor as a military ruler -- been the reservoir of some of the most potent political capital in Pakistan. A lot will depend on what happens to this powerful impulse in our polity as events unfold in the coming weeks and months.
However, my focus this week is the equally exciting story of Musharraf's struggle to retain power. There was this interesting AFP story released on Friday with the heading: 'Napoleon, Nixon hold key to Musharraf's psyche'. Napoleon Bonaparte and Richard Nixon, according to AFP, are Musharraf's stated leadership models. He has referred to Napoleon in several interviews and AFP quotes Musharraf from his official website, talking about the bids to kill him: "I call myself 'Lucky'. Napoleon had said, besides all qualities a leader has to be lucky to succeed. Therefore I must succeed".
As for his fondness for Nixon, we are reminded about the US president's reliance on 'realpolitik'. Nixon's 'Leaders' is said to be one of Musharraf's favourite books. His dependence on turncoats and 'lotas' is clearly a Pakistani version of 'realpolitik'.
Now, it would be callous to be talking about Waterloo. Watergate -- isn't this similarity rather uncanny -- may be more relevant. It is about the media and its ability to do investigative reporting. We are constantly reminded that Musharraf has 'given' the media this freedom and it is true that we have more freedom now than ever before. But what are the uses of this freedom? What would have been the worth of press freedom in the US if Nixon had not resigned after the reporting of the Watergate scandal? In our case, nothing happens when the media exposes the wrongdoings of our high functionaries.
Take the example of the brutal police attack on journalists and lawyers and civil society activities in Islamabad on September 29. It deserves more attention than is possible in these treacherous times. And I am personally grieved to learn that a former journalist of this newspaper and a very committed and temperamentally a very quiet and steadfast researcher, Adnan Sattar, was severely hurt in that encounter. The police action showed the present mindset of this government. Its heavy-handed suppression of protest is a sign of desperation. Another example was the operation mounted on the day of Nawaz Sharif's arrival at the Islamabad airport. Before that, May 12 was a very tragic illustration of what this government is capable of.
Social scientists would tell us that such a brutal exercise of power by the law enforcement agencies is an unmistakable sign of the loss of authority of the rulers. So, what can we expect if Musharaff is weakened and he still remains at the helm?
Musharraf's loss of authority
