MMRCA to be political decision: Eurofighter

[karan.1970]

f-18s as mrca winner is part of nuclear deal with us..you go against it you'll get no nuclear deal for sure...mig-35, gripen and followed by rafale are the weakest links. EF is going strong but either you go for us or go against them and you know what you get in return for going against their wishes..
ofcourse we're making predicting what'll happen we'll know it but if you go with the trends F-18 Tops the list followed by EF. the weakest are gripen and mig-35. Look you get F-18E dubbed for india F-18IN you can later on replace you jaguars with version of EA-18G specialized version which is basically Electronic warfare aircraft as well as deep strike. neither does mig-35 offers you this nor gripen.

Though I am a firm believer of F 18's selection, your logic is flawed. The Nuclear deal is done. It does not matter now if India gets any nuclear tech from US or not. The idea behind the deal was to get the special status for India which will allow rest of the world to trade nuclear commerce with India. That is now done. So there is no dependence anymore. However you are partially right. THere are huge diplomatic benefits attached to the F 18 deal. The only thing is that those benefits are yet to be delivered and will manifest post the selection is announced. In my view, it will be either in terms of US forcing Pakistan to go after the terror infrastructure responsible for Kashmir issue or a quid pro quo in Afghanistan.. Lets see how this goes down...

 

[sancho]

sancho...that's where F-18 fits..get F-18 and later on ask for EA-18G you won't get refusal.

I have big doubt about Growlers for India, but I never said F18SH is generally a bad fighter, but the package they offer is not good for us and we have way better options too.

If IAF/MoD just wants the most cost-effective fighter, they will take the Gripen NG.

If they wants the most political advantages, they will take the F18SH.

If they wants the best package of advantages, they will take the Rafale.

 

[Chanakyaa]

Very well summarised Sancho.

 

[Dash]

According tto Sancho's comment above, I see this.

We are already satisfying, or will be satisfying US with nuclear plants.
Russia with Defence deals...

I have a feeling with your logic that, this one most probably will go to Europe, as we dont have any major deals going on with them, apart from France which is investing in nuclear plants...

It will end up with Eurofighter or Rafale.....
If GOI has to do a balancing act here then, giving this tender to Eurofighter will just create ties with five different nations....

This fighter is expensive and not a very proven fighter yet for A2G roles. but of political decisions or strategic ties ever taken into considerations, this deal might go to Euro fighter.

 

[ouiouiouiouiouioui]

Its going to be F 18 .. No doubt about it. And the diplomatic payback from US on this will be thru the roof..

forget it.......

 

[ouiouiouiouiouioui]

eurofighter no doubt..............

No americans planes forget it...yes but there can multi billion contracts for nuke plants, 8-10 C130J's and C17's, some 8-10 awacs.....american choppers, naval vessels, some missiles...that will do...for the american kitty....and will satisfy american desires...

for the russians MRCA does not matter as itself SU30MKI's will reach around 240 additional supplies of MIG29 will pour and further around 4 sq's of PAKFA will oblige the russians also remember the multi billion dollar contract for Admiral navy vessel....and hypersonic cruse missile program that is being aimed after successfull co-operation of brahmos missile program....

its a sure shot Eurofighter as the indians are already upgrading the Mirage's...and given some discrepancies of the contracts that were awarded to american companies like motorola getting the multi million dollar for defense communicatio upgrade.....the indians will definetly go for euorzone techniques..

 

[sancho]

According tto Sancho's comment above, I see this.

We are already satisfying, or will be satisfying US with nuclear plants.
Russia with Defence deals...

I have a feeling with your logic that, this one most probably will go to Europe, as we dont have any major deals going on with them, apart from France which is investing in nuclear plants...

It will end up with Eurofighter or Rafale.....
If GOI has to do a balancing act here then, giving this tender to Eurofighter will just create ties with five different nations....

This fighter is expensive and not a very proven fighter yet for A2G roles. but of political decisions or strategic ties ever taken into considerations, this deal might go to Euro fighter.

Hi dash, don't see MMRCA as a deal to satisfy other coutries! This deal will cost us over $30 billions in the next decades and must have the aim to get the most benefits for us!
The Indian defense market is big enough that nearly everybody will get a share of it, but it's not on us to satisfy them, it is now on them to satisfy our us and only then, they will get the deals. The more they can offer us, the higher their chances to win!
Btw, UK and ITA get the VIP helicopter deal and we bought HAWK trainers from UK too, not to forget that our new tanker comes from Italy and Germany and France are frontrunners for tanker aircrafts, LUH and new AIP subs, so there are and will be big deals with Europe anyway.
My point was, depending on what our main requirements are, the Gripen NG, the F18SH and the Rafale are the best choices, because each of them offers the most benefits in a certain field.
The EF is not as cost-effective as the Gripen NG, nor can the consortium members help us for an UNC seat (most of them already supports us, but they key is still the USA and that's why only a US fighter would be a help in that field) and compared to Rafale it can't offer us advantages like good A2G capabilities, a developed and proven carrier fighter, integration of Kaveri engine, commonality to other fighters (unless Jags will be upgraded with ASSRAAM, or LCA will get EJ 200 engines).

The EF is a great fighter, but still mainly for air forces, or countries that searches for a main air superiority fighter like Saudi did and Japan seems to be. India has given this role to Su 30 MKI yet and to Pak Fa/FGFA in future, so the good capabilities of EF in this field are unimportant for us and unless the EF, or the consortium members can offer us other advantages, I don't see how the high costs can be justified.

 

[JohnyD]

Scrap MRCA, add another production line for MKI to fill the GAP and concentrate on LCA & PAKFA...

I don’t think any of these MRCA contenders are worth waiting for another 5 to 7 years...

None of these bird is far/far better than MKI AND it is not the case that there is no scope for MKIs improvement...Its a money game to garner political gain....India has huge surplus defence budget, so they can have such type of agenda...

 

[TechLahore]

THere are huge diplomatic benefits attached to the F 18 deal. The only thing is that those benefits are yet to be delivered and will manifest post the selection is announced. In my view, it will be either in terms of US forcing Pakistan to go after the terror infrastructure responsible for Kashmir issue or a quid pro quo in Afghanistan.. Lets see how this goes down...

Wow, that's a stretch if I've ever heard one!

If India buys the F-18, you think the US will in turn review and alter a strategic relationship which it needs on multiple fronts? The F-18 deal is going to be what... 12-15B? The US is spending how much on a single year worth of operations in Afghanistan? Probably 10-15 times as much when all costs are included. Pakistan holds the key to a smooth exit. You think the US will risk getting further caught up for a couple of years at the cost of 300B and the loss of other strategic goals for a $12B F-18 deal?

 

[BATMAN]

At present it seems indinas can forget about F-16 and F-18.
Current affairs dosn't seem to support the idea.
Gripen is tested by PAF thoutoughly... hence will not be acceptable, this narrow the choice very much to EF and Rafael...
French are already dealing with PAF hence the choice is obvious EF.
indians also tend to ask too much.... in ToT which French may not be very willing at this point of time.

 

[Cityboy]

No matter f,18, , ef or rafael. .they all r best. . The only thing is we must get full tot . .

 

[BATMAN]

You already have Russian t.o.t., is it not enough?

I hope you know the development cost of either one of said planes.

do you think inidans are willing to pay the development cost in full and reasonable profit on top of it.....?

 

[karan.1970]

Wow, that's a stretch if I've ever heard one!

If India buys the F-18, you think the US will in turn review and alter a strategic relationship which it needs on multiple fronts? The F-18 deal is going to be what... 12-15B? The US is spending how much on a single year worth of operations in Afghanistan? Probably 10-15 times as much when all costs are included. Pakistan holds the key to a smooth exit. You think the US will risk getting further caught up for a couple of years at the cost of 300B and the loss of other strategic goals for a $12B F-18 deal?

a few flaws in your arguement.

1. You are assuming that by going down the route of one of the 2 options I mentioned, US will not get a smooth exit from Afg. Now whether that happens or not, in my view, US is not getting that smooth exit anytime soon and US knows it.
Also I think you overestimate influence of Pakistan in the equation. The cards that pakistan holds all have an expiry date. Just like the old times of USSR war. Once these are played out in next 12-24 months, the leverage Pakistan has goes along with them. I dont know if USA will behave the same way as it did last time around or not, but if I was a Pakistani, I would be certainly be wary...Specially since it seems that Obama(democrats) is(are) going to be a single term president...

2. You underestimate the influence that US business houses have on the US foreign policy.

 

[TechLahore]

a few flaws in your arguement.

They would be flaws if you could provide proof that my perspective is incorrect. Obviously on an issue like this concerning the future, this is not quite possible. Therefore I will give you that you and I have a different perspective on this one, but will push back on your "flaw" characterization.

1. You are assuming that by going down the route of one of the 2 options I mentioned, US will not get a smooth exit from Afg. Now whether that happens or not, in my view, US is not getting that smooth exit anytime soon and US knows it.

There will be a big difference in what number equates with "anytime soon" based on the disposition of the GoP/Pakistani military on this issue. You may or may not agree, but the Americans do.


"This president basically is rolling the dice, he is making the most important decision of his presidency, betting on his ability to work with Pakistan and get this shared problem of the two [Pakistani and Afghan] Talibans under control," he said.

Pakistan a Key Factor in Obama's New Afghan Strategy | Asia | English

The Times: US Afghan strategy in peril as Pakistan refuses to take on key militant - Afghanistan

Also I think you overestimate influence of Pakistan in the equation. The cards that pakistan holds all have an expiry date. Just like the old times of USSR war. Once these are played out in next 12-24 months, the leverage Pakistan has goes along with them. I dont know if USA will behave the same way as it did last time around or not, but if I was a Pakistani, I would be certainly be wary...Specially since it seems that Obama(democrats) is(are) going to be a single term president...

I completely disagree.

Ambassador Richard Holbrooke, the Obama administration’s special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, urged an even greater increase in assistance to “broaden out” the U.S. relationship with a nation he called crucial to the U.S.’s national security.

“We will not be able to succeed in Afghanistan unless our policy in Pakistan is equally successful,” Holbrooke said Tuesday evening in remarks to the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington


Holbrooke Calls for More Aid to Pakistan The Washington Independent

It has taken a while for the US to understand Pakistan's true "leverage", as you put it... but I think lessons have been well learnt. At the end of the day, Pakistan is a nuclear armed nation with 170 million people situated at the crossroads of multiple incredibly important regions, the second largest muslim nation in a world where Islam is the fastest growing religion, a country that has a major Naval facility close to the mouth of the Gulf and the number one ally to the world's next superpower. That, in a very brief nutshell, is a lot of leverage.

To start with, US military presence in Afghanistan will draw-down in a couple of years, but US interests in Afghanistan are present for the long haul. Pakistan has to, in large part, guarantee the preservation of these interests. Second, Pakistan is critical to almost all regional energy exchanges. Third, Pakistan is critical in the Sino-US equation. Fourth, Pakistan is critical as a nuclear weapons state that, in the next few years, will likely have MIRV, Triad and ICBM capabilities (many threads on these techs here and elsewhere).

2. You underestimate the influence that US business houses have on the US foreign policy.

Karan, I think you overvalue your $12B, that's all I can say. By your logic, UAE and Saudi Arabia should have been able to prevent arms to Israel since they outspend Israel massively. And China, due to its likely import of over 2,600 airliners, should be able to prevent India from getting anything at all.

Asia Times Online :: China News, China Business News, Taiwan and Hong Kong News and Business.

Why couldn't India use their $12B as leverage to stop F-16 shipments to Pakistan?

 

[Trisonics]

I completely disagree.
Ambassador Richard Holbrooke, the Obama administration’s special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, urged an even greater increase in assistance to “broaden out” the U.S. relationship with a nation he called crucial to the U.S.’s national security.

“We will not be able to succeed in Afghanistan unless our policy in Pakistan is equally successful,” Holbrooke said Tuesday evening in remarks to the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington

India's biggest issue with Pakistan is terrorism, if US can ally with Pakistan longer, what else would India need? F18 or not, this would be a huge relief for India.

A number of Indo-US deals have inherent irritants, if this is the proposed outcome, India will be more than happy to exercise its other options and not be forced to buy what it may not really need.

.. Pakistan is a nuclear armed nation with 170 million people situated at the crossroads of multiple incredibly important regions, the second largest muslim nation in a world where Islam is the fastest growing religion, a country that has a major Naval facility close to the mouth of the Gulf and the number one ally to the world's next superpower. That, in a very brief nutshell, is a lot of leverage.

I can quote similar for India, or other countries, but while dealing with the US, things are not as simple or logical, hence the above lines in reality have no value. Just to reiterate the point, Under Bush, US was almost considered India's big power ally but under Obama the scope seems to have reduced to "Important/Strategic/Economic" Friends. You may feel free to disagree but studying US-PAK relationship shows a similar trend of Zigs and Zags.

To start with, US military presence in Afghanistan will draw-down in a couple of years, but US interests in Afghanistan are present for the long haul. Pakistan has to, in large part, guarantee the preservation of these interests. Second, Pakistan is critical to almost all regional energy exchanges. Third, Pakistan is critical in the Sino-US equation. Fourth, Pakistan is critical as a nuclear weapons state that, in the next few years, will likely have MIRV, Triad and ICBM capabilities (many threads on these techs here and elsewhere).

All the above were true for a long time now, even when relations between US-Pak were strained for a long time.

Karan, I think you overvalue your $12B, that's all I can say. By your logic, UAE and Saudi Arabia should have been able to prevent arms to Israel since they outspend Israel massively. And China, due to its likely import of over 2,600 airliners, should be able to prevent India from getting anything at all.

Yes, the 12billion in terms of value is not much, it is however one of the biggest one time purchases if it ever happens and has potential to add on with similar equipment an dmore. This purchase however has little for diplomacy but is an acid test for Indo-US defence deals. India has studied well the Pakistani case of f-16s, TOT available with other vendors and other kick backs with such a deal (read local production or the Euro type of deal with manufacturing opportunity in India as a partner). As I mentioned earlier, there are a few irritants and if this is solved to satisfy both sides, there will be bigger and better sales to India.
This sale has little to do with China, Pakistan or any country. Its a starter for a trust framework to be established between the two countries. Remember, India is a huge market that is hungry to modernize its forces and the US is the best when it comes to technology. Regardless of how the relationship changes US will always see India as a big market and India will always eye key US technologies.