Military Coup in Iran ?

[FriendOfPakistan]

I am not sure how serious this possibility is as of now, but it could become more serious in the future. I see no way out of the current deadlock, sanctions/war threats, without a major change in Iran or US. Iran can continue to survive in the current conditions, but even that may be in doubt if war occurs, but it cannot thrive. Popular uprising can lead to chaos. Perhaps a combined army/patriotic-IRGC members coup will happen once conditions become intolerable for Iranians.

To supporters of mullahs: I don't support any traitors who will sell out the country. I would like to see patriotic Iranians take charge of the country ... making some adjustments and compromises while preserving independence ... but more important, allowing Iran to realize its true potential.

Ending hostilities with Israel would be the first step. And making peace with the persian gulf arab states. Moderating Syria's policies and Hezbollah's, while Iran is allowed to keep its influence in those countries and in Iraq, without being hostile to US/ISrael, etc. Basically, make an accommodation with the big powers. Russia and China cannot help Iran and will throw it to the dogs. This will give the West a face-saving way to end conflict with Iran, while getting concessions ... and I am talking about concessions that are actually beneficial to Iran as well as the West.

Then starting to move the country forward in a big way economically. Iran's economic potential is much greater than what has been achieved so far. The private sector is paralyzed and 80% of the economy is government owned, inefficient, and slow-moving.

From an ex-CIA spy: US must exploit new split in Iran's Revolutionary Guard - CSMonitor.com

However, the mullahs’ biggest worry is the Revolutionary Guard themselves, the very force that has been the regime’s pillar of support ever since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. A letter written by one of its commanders to Mohammad Nourizad, a conservative journalist who himself continues to criticize Khamenei and the regime despite being jailed, beaten, and threatened, was recently published on Mr. Nourizad's blog.

The commander, whose name was withheld for security purposes, states that, “Like many millions of suffering Iranians, myself and hundreds of freedom-loving and free-thinking commanders of the Revolutionary Guard do think about the devastation" that Khamenei has forced on the country.

The commander continues, “I can positively assure you and announce to the dear people of Iran that a collective majority of the Revolutionary Guard absolutely despise the regime leadership, but they are stuck in an exceedingly cruel and bloodthirsty system. This authority does not tolerate an alternative approach by the so-called insiders, and so they orchestrate military courts in order to label members of the Revolutionary Guard as traitors and send them to the gallows.”

 

[Harry_Thomason]

Iran isnt the problem, therefore nothing it does would solve the issue, unless they surrender their rights and interests. I dont want Iran to become US puppet, neither the majority of Iranians, therefore no coup would work.

 

[Sugarcane]

There was following rumor few wakes ago, and if true than regime has already performed the cleansing process

TEHRAN: Aab TV has disclosed a covert plot to kill Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and its petroleum minister, major general Rostam Qasemi.

The TV mentioned secret reports obtained by its sources from the house of Ayatollah Khamenei which said the supreme leader had recently held a meeting with Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, chairman of Expediency Discernment Council.

The meeting held at an unknown location in Tehran discussed the intelligence pointing to an alleged plot to murder Khamenei and Rostem Qasemi.

Meanwhile, sources have said that Ayatollah Ali Khamemei had sent on forced retirement a dozen officials of Iran Revolutionary Guards. The reason for the move has not been made public.

http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-...scloses-plot-kill-khamenei-iran-minister.html

 

[IranZamin]

The Iranian government is as solid as rock. Infact it can shake the world if it chooses to. Military coups are impossible in Iran

 

[FriendOfPakistan]

Striving to become the regional hegemon is neither a right nor in Iran's best interest, because most of the region are Sunnites, and the Ottoman-Persian hostilities of the past centuries did nothing good for the region. Iran can use its influence among Shiites in other ways.

As for the nuclear program it is only an excuse by the West to isolate Iran, because Iran is trying to exercise influence outside its borders. If Iran agrees to focus on Iran, and not meddle elsewhere, it can preserve its independence and start to flourish. The Western domination of the World is not going to end soon (russia and china still scared of them) it might take decades. I don't mind Iran having nuclear weapons ... but if Iran is really after nukes, they have been extremely slow and incompetent ... after 30 years they still have not developed it. Better keep it civilian, and if there is a real external threat, let us say invasion from Turkey, well then revive it.

What have Pakistan's meddling in Afghanistan and their support of the Taliban have done for Pakistan, except bring misery ?

Iran isnt the problem, therefore nothing it does would solve the issue, unless they surrender their rights and interests. I dont want Iran to become US puppet, neither the majority of Iranians, therefore no coup would work.

 

[IranZamin]

^^ do you even know what you are talking about ? Lol

 

[FriendOfPakistan]

Once the country is in ruins and ordinary people start rampaging, things might change. That is what the US wants. Why wait until the country is in ruins ? The current rulers will not climb down, and this is going to keep Iran isolated and going downhill for a decade with sanctions and such, if not attacked militarily. How is that a good scenario ? Show me a realistic scenario where Iran ccan come out on top, and I will change my opinion.

The Iranian government is as solid as rock. Infact it can shake the world if it chooses to. Military coups are impossible in Iran

 

[Cheetah786]

There was following rumor few wakes ago, and if true than regime has already performed the
cleansing process



http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-...scloses-plot-kill-khamenei-iran-minister.html

Arab Tv is House of saud Propaganda Network They are simply doing what the Master is asking them to do Including Starting rumors.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

I doubt it World respects Iranian government and military

Iran is not navie Pakistan that 2-3 F16 will result in free transits worth billions

 

[longbrained]

Military coups are impossible in Iran since the country does not have a unified army with one operational head. At least it has three distinct forces: IRGC, Army and Baseej. The last time Shah lover officers tried to do a coup at an airforce base, some of the coup planners themselves gave the plan up. Now that the forces are completely cleansed, it is almost impossible. Anyways the author of this rubbbish article is Reza Khalili who is a disgraced and made up character with no credibility. The fact is that Iran is now at its most strong position for at least several centuries. And the west will never make compromise unless Iran stops all of its scientific and technological progress and becomes another Saudi Arabia, which is not acceptable to Iranians who have the world's fastest growth rate in science and technology. Things are not as bad as western propaganda wants to portray. There are issues but they all have their solutions and that solution is not to have another General Idi Amin or General Pinoche. Besides the history shows that Iran has never had any coup except one which was actually a CIA coup. So Iranian military is as professional as a rock. They will not move ever against their political leaders, they even did not do it during eight years of war.

 

[FriendOfPakistan]

Longbrained,

How do you think Iran can come out of top with sanctions or possibility of war, when even China is trying to profit from situation to get lower oil prices, and cutting its oil imports ? I can see how Iran might survive, but how can it thrive in isolation ? Maybe the regime can stay in power for another 10 years, but at the expense of Iran looking increasingly like Cuba or North Korea.

---------- Post added at 11:56 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:54 AM ----------

If you know so much, answer my question. Under what realistic scenario is Iran going to come out on top given sanctions and war threats ?

^^ do you even know what you are talking about ? Lol

 

[Hussein]

Mohammed Norouzad is very trustable.
And i heard the same from my friends in army. Many didn't agree with what happened after elections and some of them wanted to leave Army but they keep inside for many reasons.
Khamenei few months after the elections reorganized the Sepah. Of course he worries about his leadership.

Some people who don't know anything about Iran but having their own outside interpretation blame always mullahs.
yeah if we hear them it is a matter of villagers, mullahs and so on. lol.
of course there are some bad mullahs and stupid ones and some of them are very linked to the leadership. but a generalisation is not appropriate.

I don't understand then to believe so much in sepah as a possible coup that could help Iran.
You should know that sepah is owning almost half Iran economy. They are very powerful.

And what about basiji... well there is a difference with them. There are a lot of basiji in Iran. Millions.
Many family members of martyrs were becoming basiji. Few deputies are famous to be cousin or nephew of martyrs. Some of them are very loyal to Khamenei and then have very anti USA speech.
Most of basiji just take benefits of being basiji: they have special exam for university, quota for them (their exam is much more easier), they have priority for a job, and so on. Their military formation is really bad.

Take out all mullahs from Iran. The regime doesn't change at all.
Only people who don't know our country summarize like this "for the fans of mullahs" because it doesn't mean anything, except for royalists maybe.

Of course majority of Iranians have nothng against US people and i am sure that we are the most welcoming good relations.
But in the same time, both USA and Iran have done very bad politics and communication. I was near Khatami in the time he tried to open discussions with all countries, i know how hell it was for him but he did a great job. I remember when he came back from many place some pressure group elements were waiting for him to beat him: because sometimes he shakes hand with a girl or shake hands or speak to an Israeli.
The anti Israli and anti USA is not natural AND stupid. This is just a tool of propaganda and few brainwashed people in Iran.

But instead of said above by someone else, green movment says: No West No East, Iran.
That just means we will not favor one country, we will respect all of them BUT we need to work for our country first.
There is so much to do.

 

[IranZamin]

[/COLOR]If you know so much, answer my question. Under what realistic scenario is Iran going to come out on top given sanctions and war threats ?

Ho ho, hold on buddy. are you setting goals yourself for Iran or what ?
Irans strategy is to resist US policies in the Middle East and to prevent it from interfering in its domestic and external policies. Is that so hard for you to understand ? tell me what you dont understand so i can help you out of it

 

[FriendOfPakistan]

If you cant' answer the question ... you have admitted that Iran has no chances to win this, and the Iranian government strategy has not worked and it will lead Iran to a sharp decline, yet you like that for some reason ... somehow, you have some vested interest not in Iran's welfare but in something else.

---------- Post added at 12:08 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:07 PM ----------

You have not answered the question. FAIL !

Ho ho, hold on buddy. are you setting goals yourself for Iran or what ?
Irans strategy is to resist US policies in the Middle East and to prevent it from interfering in its domestic and external policies

 

[IranZamin]

If you cant' answer the question ... you have admitted that Iran has no chances to win this, and the Iranian government strategy has not worked and it will lead Iran to a sharp decline, yet you like that for some reason ... somehow, you have some vested interest not in Iran's welfare but in something else.

---------- Post added at 12:08 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:07 PM ----------

You have not answered the question. FAIL !

What are you babbling about ? i would answer if you came up with a real and clear question but only thing you have done so far is slandering and insulting.
I told you Irans stance is defensive, yet you are trying to tell everybody that Iran is losing grip on the situation. It seems you have an agenda here not me