Military blocking Pak-India trade deal: Shahbaz

[Dr. Strangelove]

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=635718886494250

oh the defence minister khuwaja asif

whats the music in background ?

 

[AhsanAmin]

If you actually read the article he is talking about both countries military establishments .. not just Pakistan's .. which you so conveniently omitted .

Responsibility lies on Indian public and politicians to tackle their army and it would not serve any good purpose if I started talking against their army. I simply gave suggestions on how to open trade with another country. I do wish that diplomatic matters/hostilities do not in any way hinder what is good for the prosperity of the country. Besides I think I also did not suggest an abrupt change in policy towards totally free trade which could hurt our industry in several sectors. Trade policy needs enough predictability so that investors in various industries would be careful to invest and would be more keen to convert to more efficient ways of running their industrial units/businesses which would be in fact better for the country. And they would probably need decent enough notice to make changes that would better prepare them to succeed in the new trade regime.

 

[PakPrinciples]

trade with india is blasphemy

Pakistan has to take this issue seriously and not rush to extreme on either side of no trade or totally free trade. Free trade might be the right aim on a medium term perspective.

Free trade or MFN is the stupidest thing Pakistan can do.

All of today's largest economies developed under tarrifs, duties and taxes that protected local industry from competition. It is only once your industries are established can you even begin to think about opening up your economy to free trade and MFN. Only idiots (ex. Zardari and various civilian politicians like the Shariff's) and those who completely lack knowledge on the issue would support MFN to India. You're talking about opening your economy up to a country that not only occupies Pakistani land (i.e. Kashmir) but offers its agricultural industry four times the subsidies (which has a huge impact on various other industries, particularly those that create value added products from agricultural produce, which are able to create cheaper products thanks to them) and gains a massive advantage due to market of scale (i.e. each of their businesses will be larger from having to initially service a much larger domestic population meaning they're buying more raw materials which allows them the ability to purchase at cheaper rates producing cheaper value added products). Add to this the fact that Pakistan is going through a serious energy crisis so our industries are further weakened.

The government should be a lot more focused on raising the tax to GDP ratio and investing in local industry (our capital gains formation has never even exceeded 22.5% of GDP) particularly electricity production.

I can go a lot deeper into this and have written on this issue and those like it before on various posts made on PDF.

If you actually read the article he is talking about both countries military establishments .. not just Pakistan's .. which you so conveniently omitted

It's not just the military virtually all of Pakistan's major industries are opposed to MFN.

The Pharma industry opposes them, the agricultural industry opposes them, the automobile industry either opposes or is worried about them and want special protections, etc...

If this is true the Pakistani army is doing a great job.

 

[jarves]

Responsibility lies on Indian public and politicians to tackle their army and it would not serve any good purpose if I started talking against their army.

Why are you joking around??
Its Pakistan which is not granitng MFN status to India,so it is Pakistan who is not buisness friendly not India.
So stop blaming us.

 

[IND151]

Free trade or MFN is the stupidest thing Pakistan can do.

All of today's largest economies developed under tarrifs, duties and taxes that protected local industry from competition. It is only once your industries are established can you even begin to think about opening up your economy to free trade and MFN. Only idiots (ex. Zardari and various civilian politicians like the Shariff's) and those who completely lack knowledge on the issue would support MFN to India. You're talking about opening your economy up to a country that not only occupies Pakistani land (i.e. Kashmir) but offers its agricultural industry four times the subsidies (which has a huge impact on various other industries, particularly those that create value added products from agricultural produce, which are able to create cheaper products thanks to them) and gains a massive advantage due to market of scale (i.e. each of their businesses will be larger from having to initially service a much larger domestic population meaning they're buying more raw materials which allows them the ability to purchase at cheaper rates producing cheaper value added products). Add to this the fact that Pakistan is going through a serious energy crisis so our industries are further weakened.

The government should be a lot more focused on raising the tax to GDP ratio and investing in local industry (our capital gains formation has never even exceeded 22.5% of GDP) particularly electricity production.

I can go a lot deeper into this and have written on this issue and those like it before on various posts made on PDF.



It's not just the military virtually all of Pakistan's major industries are opposed to MFN.

The Pharma industry opposes them, the agricultural industry opposes them, the automobile industry either opposes or is worried about them and want special protections, etc...

If this is true the Pakistani army is doing a great job.

Agreed.

You're talking about opening your economy up to a country that not only occupies Pakistani land (i.e. Kashmir) but offers its agricultural industry four times the subsidies (which has a huge impact on various other industries, particularly those that create value added products from agricultural produce, which are able to create cheaper products thanks to them) and gains a massive advantage due to market of scale

But developed nations like US give even bigger subsidies than us which affects our agricultural products, as they become relatively less competitive in market.

The market is like that. Big players like US enjoy advantages.

What Pakistan can do is follow India i.e open your economy phase by phase, giving your industries time to be ready for competition.

If you think that GOP will not open up economy to India, you are wrong.

Besides competion will make your companies work harder and indian prodscuts imply that you have better choice.

For example TATA and Mahindra can launch Safri, Xylo, Scorpio, Indigo Manza, Scorpio etc. in Pakistan.

 

[AhsanAmin]

Free trade or MFN is the stupidest thing Pakistan can do.
All of today's largest economies developed under tarrifs, duties and taxes that protected local industry from competition. It is only once your industries are established can you even begin to think about opening up your economy to free trade and MFN. Only idiots (ex. Zardari and various civilian politicians like the Shariff's) and those who completely lack knowledge on the issue would support MFN to India. You're talking about opening your economy up to a country that not only occupies Pakistani land (i.e. Kashmir) but offers its agricultural industry four times the subsidies (which has a huge impact on various other industries, particularly those that create value added products from agricultural produce, which are able to create cheaper products thanks to them) and gains a massive advantage due to market of scale (i.e. each of their businesses will be larger from having to initially service a much larger domestic population meaning they're buying more raw materials which allows them the ability to purchase at cheaper rates producing cheaper value added products). Add to this the fact that Pakistan is going through a serious energy crisis so our industries are further weakened.
The government should be a lot more focused on raising the tax to GDP ratio and investing in local industry (our capital gains formation has never even exceeded 22.5% of GDP) particularly electricity production.

This is why I said that this issue has to be studied by experts on a sector-wise basis and we follow established norms in international trade related to duties and tariffs. However this would be completely absurd if we totally avoid trade with India due to our conflicts. We can have largely increased trade in a way that both economies of Pakistan and India benefit from it. And all Pakistanis hope that energy crisis would be over in a few years and it would be better to make a longer term trade policy in which industry is taken into confidence and an approximate time table of decreasing trade barriers is given and if we want to protect some parts of our industry from any unfair competition or dumping, we have to promote trade in other sectors where trade is very desirable for both countries. I do not favor an abrupt decision of totally free trade right away as it might have disastrous consequences for some parts of our industry which is not any good Pakistani government would want.

 

[AhsanAmin]

Trade between India and Pakistan surges 21% to $2.4 billion – The Express Tribune

ISLAMABAD: Bilateral trade between India and Pakistan grew 21% to $2.4 billion last year, as Islamabad reaped the benefits of trade normalisation more than the gains made by New Delhi, says the Indian High Commission.

According to latest figures of the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics, Ministry of Commerce and Industry India, which were released here on Monday, the volume of bilateral trade recorded a net increase of $410 million from April last year to March this year.

Pakistan’s exports to India grew 28% while Indian exports to Pakistan increased 19%.

Bilateral trade has increased to $2.4 billion, which may soar to $6 billion in the next two years if both countries decide to treat each other equally. Currently, most of the trade between India and Pakistan takes place via Dubai and its volume is estimated at over $4 billion.

The figures come hard on the heels of interests shown by the political leadership of both sides to improve bilateral ties following sudden heightening of tensions due to killing of each other’s prisoners. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has invited Mian Nawaz Sharif to visit India after taking oath of office as prime minister.

Sharif too is keen to see the Indian premier at his oath-taking ceremony, expected to take place soon.

According to an official statement released by the Indian High Commission in Islamabad, Pakistan’s exports to India in the last Indian financial year (April 2012-March 2013) grew 28% and reached $513 million. Metalliferous ores and metal scrap, organic chemicals, raw cotton and leather were among the commodities that contributed significantly to the increase.

The High Commission termed the 28% increase in Pakistan’s exports “impressive” when viewed in the context of negligible increase (0.3%) in India’s overall imports.

India’s exports to Pakistan in the same period increased $300 million, a growth of 19%. Total Indian exports to Pakistan stood at $1.84 billion, putting the trade balance in favour of New Delhi.

“The growth in bilateral trade, especially in Pakistan’s exports to India, reflects the positive effect of a number of steps taken towards fully normalised trade relations,” the High Commission stated.

It added three bilateral agreements signed in 2012 in the areas of customs cooperation, mutual recognition of standards and addressing trade grievances were intended to further improve trade environment.

In February last year while taking a giant leap forward, Pakistan abolished the positive list containing only 1,956 tradable items and enforced a negative list of 1,209 untradable items until both sides agree on absolute trade normalisation. Pakistan was expected to abolish the negative list by December last year, but the deadline was missed due to Indian reluctance to address Islamabad’s concerns about non-tariff barriers and resistance by Pakistan’s automobile and pharmaceutical sectors.

Analysts hope that both sides will start trade negotiations from where these were left off once Sharif’s party takes the reins of the country.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 14th, 2013.

 

[AhsanAmin]

Bilateral trade has increased to $2.4 billion, which may soar to $6 billion in the next two years if both countries decide to treat each other equally. Currently, most of the trade between India and Pakistan takes place via Dubai and its volume is estimated at over $4 billion.

It would be probably good to know what is being traded through Dubai, and allow its trade but again we will have to know its consequences that some of the Indian goods that are marginally competitive will become far more competitive so we might have to give some sort of notice to our industry.

And Pharmaceuticals sector should be included in the free trade category. Pharmaceuticals in Pakistan normally do not engage in any research and their prices must be artificially high meaning that free trade in this category would be better for people of Pakistan. They might have a pressure group but this is a "straight free trade category". People of Pakistan would actually know the benefits of "free trade" if this category is removed from any negative list.

 

[mano99]

china is dumping its cheap goods in pakistan and pakistanis are so happy about it............Pakistan and China signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in November 2006, after which Chinese products flooded the local markets. While Pakistan imports about 1,000 items from its neighbour to the north, exports to the country stand at a dismal below-50 figure. Furthermore, between December 2006 and August 2010, pakistan imported around $11.1 billion worth of goods from China. The value of pakistan exports to China over the same period was only $0.25 billion.

 

[PakPrinciples]

However this would be completely absurd if we totally avoid trade with India due to our conflicts.

This isn't absurd at all. The US doesn't trade with Iran nor N. Korea and it's gotten along just fine it's problems have to do with other issues some of which are clear but others that you may not be entirely familiar with but for now I'm not going to get into them unless you're really want to discuss this.

We don't need trade with India and a good reason not to trade with them is their continued occupation of Kashmir. Aside from war (and we will go to war again) the only other option is outright banning of trade otherwise what incentive is there for them to give up their occupation of our ancestral land, murder of our people and their continuation of blocking our rivers further upstream in the occupied territory?

Pakistan's economic problems have nothing to do with the lack of cross border trade with India.

Pakistan's biggest problem is tax collection. Without collecting taxes the government accrues more and more debt on a year to year basis which it has to pay interest on (over the last four years debt has averaged over 11% year on year growth) with more than 6% of the GDP (over half the budget) basically going towards debt servicing. What that has lead to is the government lacking the money needed to invest in projects that are absolutely necessary for continued economic growth (as stated before our capital gains formation has never exceeded 22.5% of GDP when it should be approaching 40% of GDP and routinely plummets every time the nation reverts back to civilian rule).

Without that funding we haven't industrialized our agricultural sector which would double our per acre output particularly for our major crops (sugar gane, wheat, maize and cotton) which would increase the GDP by 12% alone, we cannot invest in energy production (ex. creation of new power plants routinely resulting in having to go to the ADB, WB or IMF for loans but if they do not like our plans they'll simply refuse to loan us the cash and has meant we've been prevented from creating coal plants that run totally on indigenous coal and/or lignite, etc...) or the exploitation of our own indigenous sources of fuel (ex. lignite, shale gas, shale oil, etc...) which has hampered the growth of our own industries leading to GDP growth that's 3 to 4% less than what it should be, Pakistan has been unable to fund the security barriers to prevent cross border infiltration by groups (ex. BLA) supported by India and based out of Afghanistan, etc...

This is why I said that this issue has to be studied by experts on a sector-wise basis and we follow established norms in international trade related to duties and tariffs.

Pakistan’s exports to India grew 28% while Indian exports to Pakistan increased 19%.

Bilateral trade has increased to $2.4 billion, which may soar to $6 billion

According to an official statement released by the Indian High Commission in Islamabad, Pakistan’s exports to India in the last Indian financial year (April 2012-March 2013) grew 28% and reached $513 million. Metalliferous ores and metal scrap, organic chemicals, raw cotton and leather were among the commodities that contributed significantly to the increase.

India’s exports to Pakistan in the same period increased $300 million, a growth of 19%. Total Indian exports to Pakistan stood at $1.84 billion, putting the trade balance in favour of New Delhi.

Your article just proved what I've been saying that giving India MFN is a very bad idea and the mere fact you posted that article to "show" how someone like me is wrong demonstrates to me that you don't understand the position you've taken.

Ha-Joon Chang is possibly the world's foremost development economist today and has written a number of great books such as "Kicking Away the Ladder: Development Strategy in Historical Perspective" and "Bad Samaritans". I am going to advise you to go read his books first before you continue to support this neoliberal nonsense which actually hampers our growth.

Look at the list of items exported to India that are responsible for the large bulk of the growth in exports (metalliferous ores, metal scrap, raw cotton, leather) you'll notice they're all raw materials. One important fact you need to understand, which Ha-Joon Chang covers in his books, is that poor economies that hamper their own growth export raw materials while developing economies import raw materials and export value added products.

Free trade and MFN are very bad ideas and simply put anyone who advocates them is a complete idiot (like the Sharrifs, Zardari, every liberal moron in the country, etc...) or doesn't understand the issue at hand.

Pakistan needs a very strong set of tariffs, duties, taxes to protect local industries and subsidies/investments into those local industries (we need to get our capital gains formation on the road towards 40% of GDP not hovering at the 15% of GDP mark like it currently is) to help them grow and allow them to use our raw materials to create value added products for export. That is the way you will see over 9% yearly GDP growth in Pakistan.

 

[dray]

If you actually read the article he is talking about both countries military establishments .. not just Pakistan's .. which you so conveniently omitted .

Indian military doesn't have much of a say in these matters, they don't interfere in Govt. functioning. And India has granted MFN status to Pakistan long back.