Military and Strategic Implications of Fallout with NATO

[Babur The Uzbek Tiger]

Relations with NATO and US are bad and will reach further lows. Turkey has signed for the S-400 and the US has already made a firm decision to punish Turkey for it. This is going to effect the entire military doctrine of Turkey and also strategic assets/inventory. Can we count on the F-35 as much as we had in the past despite being partners ? What does this say about the U.S. assets stationed in Turkey ? Is the S-400 just the beginning ? I believe the Turkish establishment is hinting that it does not trust NATO because defense of air space is extremely vital.

Turkey will need to procure further equipment from Russia and China because the American and European defense purchases are now subject to political strings and possible boycott. The smart thing to do here is realize where Turkey is and what has happened that has lead to this point. Regardless of the fact that Erdogan might not be liked by everyone, NATO and Europe always abused Turkey. It was possibly only Israel that ever helped Turkey while the U.S. and western Europe did their best to sabotage Turkey.

Things to procure immediately from Russia while Putin is still in office:

Aircraft (with transfer of technology) + missiles
1). Su-35 and Su-35UB (300)
2). Beriev A-100 Premier (6)
3). Su-34 (20)
4). Il-78 tanker (12)

Helicopters:
1). Mi-38 medium transport (200)

Nuclear Weapon Program

This is the most crucial. In the future I see the removal of U.S. nuclear stockpile from Incirlik. Even the American media agrees with me:

The United States keeps a stockpile of 50 Cold War-era B61 nuclear bombs at an air base in Incirlik. They are not considered strategically important. But they are a potential security risk, nuclear security experts say.

That became clear last July, during a failed military coup attempt against Erdogan's government. According to the government, those coup plotters were operating out of ... you guessed it: Incirlik.

Keeping a nuclear arsenal at the same air base where military coup plotters are launching their coup against their government is a scary situation. Add to that risk the proximity of the Syrian civil war, the ongoing conflict between Turkey and Kurdish separatists and a wave of terrorist attacks in recent years, and you've got to wonder why the US is taking the risk of housing 50 nuclear weapons in the country.

"There is no other country in Europe where the US stores nuclear weapons where a military coup just happened and you have something that looks almost like a civil war with violent explosions and killings, and in addition to that you are less than 100 miles from the border of a completely war-torn country, Syria," Hans Kristensen, the director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists said after the coup.

Since then, there's been reason to question whether Erdogan is the kind of partner you'd want babysitting your nuclear weapons. After the coup attempt, his government arrested or fired more than 100,000 people, including judges and civil servants; and cracked down on the free press; and arrested and imprisoned so many journalists that Turkey is now the world's leading jailer of them. His critics say he's become increasingly authoritarian and that a "yes" vote could effectively establish an Erdogan dictatorship.

 

[Beno]

Aircraft (with transfer of technology) + missiles
1). Su-35 and Su-35UB (300)
2). Beriev A-100 Premier (6)
3). Su-34 (20)
4). Il-78 tanker (12)

Why would Turkey get any technology transfers? The S-400 won't give Turkey any so why would Russia start giving Turkey any now?

The only countries that have been willing to give technology to Turkey have been Western countries (Italy gave technology for the T-129, the US gave technology for the F-16 plant in Turkey, the F-35 support facilities in Turkey, the ACV-15, Germany for the T-122 and South Korea for the T-155).

 

[Babur The Uzbek Tiger]

Why would Turkey get any technology transfers? The S-400 won't give Turkey any so why would Russia start giving Turkey any now?

The only countries that have been willing to give technology to Turkey have been Western countries (Italy gave technology for the T-129, the US gave technology for the F-16 plant in Turkey, the F-35 support facilities in Turkey, the ACV-15, Germany for the T-122 and South Korea for the T-155).

Have you been living under a rock for the past few years ? Those are all deals from the past, when the stockpiling of American nukes in Turkey was not questioned as a security risk. When Turkey was not labeled as an enemy during NATO war games. If we sit on our backside without contingency plans while courting Russia, it will be disastrous. As for ToT with regards to S-400 it could come later, but why go to Russia in the first place for these ? It points to a larger theme developing.

 

[Deliorman]

Anyone who thinks the Russians, Iran and China will gladly share their technologies and defend Turkey against the West if it leaves NATO is either brain dead or blind... The moment Turkey leaves NATO it goes straight to the mouth of the Bear and nobody will try to save it. Until Turkey is completely independent in it’s defense industry it has no other alternative but being a member of NATO. The recent scandal in Norway is being blown out of proportion and is used to divert the attention of the Turkish public from some much more important things happening in Turkey nowadays.

Ps After the downing of the Russian jet it took less than 8 months with no Russian tourists in Antalya and no tomato exports for Erdo to go beg Putin for mercy. And that is against Russia which is a much smaller trading partner to Turkey than the West and a smaller military power than the West. If you can think clearly you can do the math and see what will happen to Turkey the day it officially becomes an enemy of NATO.

Have you been living under a rock for the past few years ? Those are all deals from the past, when the stockpiling of American nukes in Turkey was not questioned as a security risk. When Turkey was not labeled as an enemy during NATO war games. If we sit on our backside without contingency plans while courting Russia, it will be disastrous. As for ToT with regards to S-400 it could come later, but why go to Russia in the first place for these ? It points to a larger theme developing.

Are you living under a rock? Maybe it’s not Spain which helps Turkey in building TGC Anadolu right now? Maybe it’s not Great Britain that is a partner in the TFX project? What about France and Italy with whom Turkey signed a deal to develop a SAM defense system days ago? It’s not the US from where Turkey expects it’s first 6 F35s to come in 2018/2019? It’s not the EU countries with whom Turkey is a partner on the A400 project? It’s not the West from where many of the sub systems and components come from for all the projects Turkey develops right now too, huh?

 

[Pax Ottomana]

Relations with NATO and US are bad and will reach further lows. Turkey has signed for the S-400 and the US has already made a firm decision to punish Turkey for it. This is going to effect the entire military doctrine of Turkey and also strategic assets/inventory. Can we count on the F-35 as much as we had in the past despite being partners ? What does this say about the U.S. assets stationed in Turkey ? Is the S-400 just the beginning ? I believe the Turkish establishment is hinting that it does not trust NATO because defense of air space is extremely vital.

Turkey will need to procure further equipment from Russia and China because the American and European defense purchases are now subject to political strings and possible boycott. The smart thing to do here is realize where Turkey is and what has happened that has lead to this point. Regardless of the fact that Erdogan might not be liked by everyone, NATO and Europe always abused Turkey. It was possibly only Israel that ever helped Turkey while the U.S. and western Europe did their best to sabotage Turkey.

Things to procure immediately from Russia while Putin is still in office:

Aircraft (with transfer of technology) + missiles
1). Su-35 and Su-35UB (300)
2). Beriev A-100 Premier (6)
3). Su-34 (20)
4). Il-78 tanker (12)

Helicopters:
1). Mi-38 medium transport (200)

Nuclear Weapon Program

This is the most crucial. In the future I see the removal of U.S. nuclear stockpile from Incirlik. Even the American media agrees with me:

Hold your horses partner. Turkey isn't stopping all its partnerships with the US, nor is it leaving NATO nor abandoning the West. It's simply showing everyone (including Russia) that it's an independent power.

 

[Pax Ottomana]

Turkey will be in NATO no matter what

Turkey is one of the most important members of NATO and has its second largest military. It played a very important part during the Cold War by protecting the alliance's southern flank. After 2001, it supported NATO's Afghanistan mission, sending thousands of its troops. It was in the front lines of the fight against terror and suffered its consequences, becoming the target of dozens of terrorist attacks.

After decades side by side, there are some allies that are troubled by Turkey's membership. Aware that the charter of the organization precludes Turkey's dismissal, they prefer to harass it so much that it will quit on its own. If that is what they are after, they are sorely mistaken. Turkey will continue to be an integral part of the alliance and will patiently fight back against all efforts of bullying and injustice.

However, the conduct of some members will continue to harm the alliance itself, and they are blind to the fact that without Turkey, as a geo-political heavyweight and a regional lynchpin, NATO will face significant problems in the near future.

The world's strongest security alliance seems impotent and confused when confronted with the dangers of our time.

There is also some legitimacy to the severe criticisms directed by the Turkish public toward NATO. The public believes NATO has practically deserted Turkey against the many security threats it faces. If NATO fails to adapt to the new age we are in and becomes a more efficient organization, it will, unfortunately, soon start to lose the trust of the publics of other alliance members.

The recent spate of public diplomacy disasters by NATO and the West toward Turkey could have been seen as flukes only if they had not followed similar "slip-ups" before. The increased frequency of these disasters give the impression that these are intentional, not coincidental.

The insulting way President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Turkey's founder Mustafa Kemal Atatürk was portrayed as the enemy in NATO documents during a recent drill in Norway seems more like mistakes made on purpose. At least that is what the Turkish public thinks.

Such a scandalous act committed by NATO officials makes one doubt the competence and trustworthiness of the alliance personnel and the efficiency of their intelligence network. How can the photos of Turkey's founder end up in a guide book depicting NATO's enemies? How can an account be opened in the name of Erdoğan, who is portrayed as being in cahoots with the enemy? How can such "mistakes" slip by so many eyes to become part of a drill?

Such conduct not only casts a shadow on NATO's efficiency and security, it also gives ammunition to the critics who want to harm this alliance.

Turks demand NATO to prove that it truly values their participation in the alliance. An investigation into those responsible for these blunders and their superiors is a start. Rather than spreading misinformation about Turkey, NATO should start explaining what it plans to do about the two failed states exporting chaos on our southern border.

If NATO officials and experts find themselves clueless about what is going on, they are welcome to visit dailysabah.com or purchase our paper to get an idea. That way, they may prevent the repeat of scandals such as attacking leaders seen as heroes by the Turkish public.

It might seem naïve to complain about NATO at a time when the U.S. openly supports groups it recognizes as terrorist, while Europe, as a whole, hosts all kinds of terrorist groups as long as they profess animosity toward Turkey. Even though Turkey believes in NATO and what it stands for, it will do everything in its power to defend its sovereignty and citizens. This is behind the policies followed by Erdoğan, which some foreigners view as independent. When all its allies seem to be in cooperation with one terrorist or another, independence means truly fighting terror in all its forms. This is why Erdoğan's policies have public support.

Still, Turkey and NATO need to find ways to strengthen this alliance and this should start by stopping efforts to sabotage each other simply because we oppose a policy. Previous attempts have domestically strengthened Erdoğan and current ones like the NATO scandals and the Zarrab case in the U.S., will increase his public support even more.

Turkey will resist all harassment through cool and sound diplomacy while being a dependable NATO ally while pursuing security partners from outside the alliance as an antidote to the polarization that is poisoning the world order.

https://www.dailysabah.com/editorial/2017/11/22/turkey-will-be-in-nato-no-matter-what

 

[Babur The Uzbek Tiger]

From The Washington Examiner 5 days ago:

If Turkey buys the Russian S-400 air defense system, the Trump administration should restrict Turkey's purchase of the F-35 fighter jet.

Valerie Insinna reports at Defense News, the U.S. is actively considering that potential response.

First off, the fact that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is even contemplating taking delivery of advanced Russian military equipment is outrageous. As a member of NATO, Turkey is expected to buy military capabilities that can work seamlessly alongside other NATO member militaries. The S-400 does not allow for that operational synergy. On the contrary, this purchase represents a betrayal of NATO's founding mission: to deter and defeat any Russian attack on Europe or the United States.

Ultimately, Trump should tell Erdogan that he has two choices here. The Turkish leader can go ahead and take delivery of the S-400 or he can take delivery of the F-35. But he cannot have both.


If anyone knows this line of thinking, it is our Pakistani friends here via their relationship with arms acquisitions from Uncle Sam. Maybe some of you are insulated from domestic western politics regarding Turkey these days...

 

[Fenasi Kerim]

From The Washington Examiner 5 days ago:

If Turkey buys the Russian S-400 air defense system, the Trump administration should restrict Turkey's purchase of the F-35 fighter jet.

Valerie Insinna reports at Defense News, the U.S. is actively considering that potential response.

First off, the fact that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is even contemplating taking delivery of advanced Russian military equipment is outrageous. As a member of NATO, Turkey is expected to buy military capabilities that can work seamlessly alongside other NATO member militaries. The S-400 does not allow for that operational synergy. On the contrary, this purchase represents a betrayal of NATO's founding mission: to deter and defeat any Russian attack on Europe or the United States.

Ultimately, Trump should tell Erdogan that he has two choices here. The Turkish leader can go ahead and take delivery of the S-400 or he can take delivery of the F-35. But he cannot have both.


If anyone knows this line of thinking, it is our Pakistani friends here via their relationship with arms acquisitions from Uncle Sam. Maybe some of you are insulated from domestic western politics regarding Turkey these days...

Well your "Pakistani friends" will jump on the wagon with whoever floats there economy that's why they think KSA, China and Russia are there best friends and will praise them as the "next superpower block", they have no alternative but to go for Russian and Chinese duplicates, as western systems are off the radar for them. They get there naval and aircraft upgrades from Turkey, when they can buy brand new Chinese duplicates, that shows the technology difference between the two nations and blocks.

Returning to Turkey, it has always played the power balance between the West (Europe, US), the north (Russia) and the East (Iran etc) it has no alternative being situated in the middle of everything. However none of the three can afford to Turkey to slide in either direction, blocking F35s will mean exactly that and the US, esp Europe will not risk that.

It's one thing when the elections are coming up to say you will block arms sales to Turkey and totally another in reality once elections are over.

Have you ever opened a map in your life to see how important Turkey is strategically.

 

[Pax Ottomana]

Turkey is a technology and industrial partner in the F-35 program and a WTO (world trade organization) member. The US has no legal case in defending itself if it denies Turkey sales of F-35s, a program that Turkey partially owns. Turkey can make the US pay a lot of money in compensation. Buying non-NATO weapons doesn't violate any international law or even the NATO charter itself. As a sovereign country, Turkey has the right to buy defense systems from whomever it wants and the "politicians" who are in the back pocket or Raytheon and Lockheed Martin can kindly go put a sock in it.

 

[Elvin]

Turkey has made significant strides with their domestic military industrial complex, but it needs to go further, especially with diversifying their air force and not solely relying on the F16 model. Furthermore, this isn't a one way street, NATO needs Turkey as much as Turkey needs NATO due to Turkey's geographic importance, I think NATO's interest is to continue expansion and influence, and losing Turkey would be a big set back for their plan.

Turkey needs to put more effort into developing long range missles technology, nuclear, and with that surface to air missile systems ( they can't be that hard to develop).

With or without NATO Russia would never mess with Turkey unless it had a egregious reason.. Putin knows this.

I would also add, that Turkey, Iran and Russia can start an alliance to include other Turkic nations, and possibly further east with Pakistan, China, etc.. and directly challenge NATO and also hold Russia by the balls with a strategic union of reliance on one another..

Or it could start planting the seeds for a future Turkic union to include Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kirghistan, etc. Many option to consider

 

[Khagan1923]

https://www.f35.com/global/participation/turkey-industrial-participation

 

[MMM-E]

A huge achievement for the Republic of TURKIYE in the formation of the best military industrial base in the region

-- MPT76 and MPT55 Rifles
-- JN90 Sniper Rifle
-- MFY-71 fully automatic Machine Gun
-- OMTAS Anti Tank Missile
-- IFVs , AFVs and APCs
-- ALTAY Tank
-- T-155 STORM 155mm Howitzer
-- T-155 PANTHER 155mm Howitzer
-- YAVUZ Truck mounted 155mm Howitzer
-- TRG-122 guided MLRS
-- TRG-300 guided MLRS
-- J600T Tactical Ballistic Missile
-- BORA Ballistic Missile
-- SAMUR Amphibious Assault Bridge
-- RETINAR PTR Area Surveillance & Security Radar optimized for human and animal detection
-- KALKAN II AESA Radar
-- Aselsan GaN based AESA Radar for TAI TFX 5th gen Fighter Jet Project
-- Aselsan Early Warning GaN based AESA Radar ( 600km)
-- Aselsan CAFRAD GaN based AESA Radar ( 450km ) for TF-2000 class Destroyer Project

-- MEHPOD Jamming Pod
-- ASELPOD Targeting Pod
-- Airborne Stand off Jammer
-- Aselsan HEWS Helicopter Electronic Warfare System
-- KORAL Radar Electronic Warfare System
-- Aselsan IFF Identification friend and foe System
-- Havelsan GENESIS Combat Management System
-- Meteksan MILDAR Fire control Radar for T-129 Attack Helicopter
-- Aselsan AVCI Helmet Integrated Cueing System (HICS) for T-129 Attack Helicopter
-- Aselsan CATS (Common Aperture Targeting System)

-- AKKOR Active Protection System for ALTAY Tank
-- Aselsan VOLKAN III next generation Fire Control System for ALTAY Tank
-- Aselsan HIZIR-LFAS Low Frequency Towed Active Sonar
-- Aselsan DIFAR Sonobuoy Sonar system that is dropped/ejected from aircraft or ships conducting anti-submarine warfare

-- 250 + km SOM Cruise Missile
-- 220+ km ATMACA anti ship Missile
-- 30 km TEMREN Missile for S-70B Sea Hawk Helicopters
-- 8 km MIZRAK Missile for T-129 Attack Helicopters
-- 8 km CIRIT 70mm laser guided Missile for T-129 Attack Helicopters
-- Types of Thermobaric Warheads
-- LGK Laser guided Bomb
-- HGK , KGK and TEBER Smart Bombs
-- DEMET Cluster Bomb
-- AKYA Heavyweight Torpedo
-- ORKA Lightweight Torpedo
-- TORK anti torpedo hard kill system
-- DAKA and ZARGANA Decoys
-- ROKETSAN ASW Rocket
-- KORKUT-D 35mm CIWS
-- KORKUT 35mm SPAAG

-- TUMOSAN next generation Diesel Engine for Military Vehichles
-- KALE 3500 Turbojet Engine for Cruise Missiles
-- TEI PD-170 Turboprob Engine ( 170 hp ) for UAV-UCAV
-- TEI TS1400 Turboshaft Engine for Helicopters (1400shp)
-- TUBITAK JP-10 type missile Fuel


-- Bayraktar TB-2 Armed Drone ( UCAV )
-- TAI ANKA Armed Drone ( UCAV )
-- TAI HURKUS light attack and training Aircraft
-- TAI GOKTURK Military Satellite
-- TAI T-625 Utility Helicopter

-- ADA class stealth Corvette
-- MILGEM-I class stealth Frigate
-- Patrol Boat
-- Fast Attack Missile Boat
-- LCT
-- LST
-- Super Tanker


-- GEZGIN Land and Naval based Cruise Missile
-- GOKTUG BVR and WVR Air to Air Missiles
-- HISAR Air Defense Systems
-- TUFAN Electromagnetic Railgun
-- ASELSAN and TUBITAK High Energy LASER
-- TF-4500 class stealth Frigate
-- TF-2000 class Destroyer
-- MILDEN class Submarine
-- TAI ATAK-2 8 Attack Helicopter
-- TAI 10 ton class Utility Helicopter
-- TAI HURJET light attack and trainer Jet
-- TAI TFX 5th gen stealth Fighter Jet


also ..... under license production in Turkey

-- F-16 Fighter Jet
-- Sikorsky S70 Black Hawk Helicopter
-- CASA CN-235 Transport Aircraft
-- General Electric F110-GE-100 Engine
-- General Electric T700 Turboshaft Engine
-- MEKO-200 class Frigate
-- Type 209 and Type 214 class Submarines
-- Juan Carloss class LHD


also Global Partnership

-- Airbus A400M Atlas Strategic Transport Aircraft
-- Lockheed Martin F35 Lighting II Fighter Jet

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

 

[Glass]

No nato exit would be a good thing.