India Doubts ISI is Shifting Focus to Militants - India Real Time - WSJ
Pakistan’s recent assessment that domestic militancy - and not India - is the country’s preeminent security threat could help spur the military there to take further action against Taliban militants.
But the strategic shift is likely to be met with skepticism in India, at least for now.
The Inter-Services Intelligence military spy agency, in a regular security assessment, says it sees two thirds of potential threats coming from Islamist militants. That is the first time in Pakistan’s 63 years of existence that India’s army has not been viewed as the top security concern.
India will want to see action rather than an assessment of risk. India thinks Pakistan has not done enough to crack down on the perpetrators of the Mumbai attacks in 2008. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, during an Independence Day speech at the Red Fort Sunday, said more action on that front is a prerequisite to better relations with Pakistan.
Some Indian observers are also wary about whether the ISI’s mainstream, which authored the security assessment, are able to control rogue elements - former ISI and military officers that many in India and the U.S. believe have maintained ties with militants.
“It’s a good development, provided the bulk of the ISI, including retired officers, take a hint,” said Naresh Chandra, chairman of the National Security Advisory Board.
Rebuilding trust between the two sides is going to take some time. The last round of peace talks in mid-July broke down after India said it had evidence the ISI was directly involved in the Mumbai attacks, a claim the ISI denies.
Pakistan maintains that it has severed ties with militants that it once fostered to fight in Afghanistan as well as Indian troops in the disputed region of Kashmir. Many of those militants have in the past couple of years turned against Pakistan, which they see as too close to the U.S.
Still, Islamabad’s relations with militants that focus on India, and don’t attack Pakistan, like Lashkar-e-Taiba, are less clear. New Delhi in recent weeks has blamed Pakistan for continuing to send militants in to India’s Jammu and Kashmir state, which has erupted in separatist violence since mid-June. Pakistan denies this.
For now, peace seems far off. But Pakistan’s admission that India is not its biggest threat could in the long run help to reinvigorate peace talks with Pakistan that Mr. Singh has made a key goal of his administration.