This time Its PTI turn...lets See what comes out in this Election as commentators predicting a Shock to ruling Party.
So, Who do you thinks will Win this GB Elections and Why?
There was a reason behind it. GB, like other parts of Pakistan also has their own set of people who can gain votes and could be categorized as kngmakers of the region. Now these men can make or break a government just like other areas of Pakistan has them. MAryam was shouting that 7-8 men have betrayed the party and the people shouldnt vote for them and the reason is simple because the sitting government is PTI and the moment the siting government of N lost its power, the kingmakers started thinking about PTI and how to gain maximum benefit from them.
The question to have is, why does the center always form government in GB and AJK and whether this will play a role in this election?
For this we will have to look at the basic structure of governance and understand where power resides and who can provide the most benefit. The Gb assembly or the Center. This is because we need to understand where the klingmakers would go and what would loyalty to a party get them? would sitting in the opposition mean anything or even forming a government that is not the center in GB? after all Gb is not the 18th amendment province which has vast powers to the province so being opposite to the center party doesnt hurt their interest.
So first of all the post of Governor. This post is to be decided by the Prime minister and President of Pakistan and when
N was in power the governor was from Hunza Mir Ghazanfar Ali appointed by N and when Pti came to power, Raja Jalalbecame governor so in the eyes of everybody who is anybody in GB, that the post of governorship is up for grabs of the center party comes to power. Yes i know that is for all provinces but i am gonna add to this. There is a GB council whose members are 6 from Pakistani parliament, thePrime Minister, the governor and the Minister for Kashmir Affairsset member. Thats 9 members from the central government of Pakistan whereas the GB government has the CM and 6 elected members. So 7 members.so the party that has the Center in Pakistan had the GB Council which has vast powers beginning with that the Council can appoint 3 advisors from the elected members so there is another incentive to support the party at the center and that is the perks and also the Chairman is the PM of Pakistan. The power is tilted towards the center so the kingmakers join whichever party is in power in the center and also the chairman also has powers to commute sentences and grant pardons. The Council also has great legislative power. Infact all the important subjects are with the Council but here is the kicker
The Council keeps the funds. All loans they raise or monies they colected becomes part of their funds and they dont need permission of Pakistan to take a loan whereas The GB government needs permission from Pakistan to take out a loan. So loans are basically under the council and they would hold the major chunk of the funds since the third schedule aka the council legislative list, which has all the major items, has most taxes like sales of good taxes, corporate tax and mineral wealth and duties of all kinds and income taxes without agriculture tax which is with the government. So the Council fund will always be the central fund and if you need developmental fund then you need to be in the good books of the Center and then we have other appointments like Attorney general or public commission or judicature. They all need the consent of the Council. What good is being a railway minister appointed by CM when the subject is with the council? especially if you are from N and the Center is PTI.
It was the same for AJK and for a longtime it was exactly like that till the 13th amendment which is why i predict that AJK may actually see continuation of N league in the future elections since the Council is severely weakened in terms of interests but the GB council is still powerful and can drive interests.
Now the question is whether the announcement of province will see those kingmakers show loyalty and focus on longterm politics by strengthening respective political parties or will they simply not risk it and join the center party and enjoy the perks till the provincialization of the region? Well we will find out in 15th november which is why i am saying that by announcing the province statement, they have thrown in a new factor in the game.
I would still back PTI. It is entirely between Pti and PPP
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