The logical end, if the US will not allow MII for F-16, is that India buy JAS-39 Gripen E.
Nope, India will not tolerate a single vendor situation and the Gripen E won't be ready for in-country trails before 2022/3 and the deal was to be signed in around 2020. The Gripen E will come too late, by then India will have much more interesting things in its focus.
The game is over, the GoI did its best to ram this requirement down the IAF's throats that wanted neither the F-16 nor Gripen but ultimately it was never feasible.
Ordering more Su-30MKI will make IAF unbalanced.
More MKIs will be ordered to keep the Nasik plant churning until the mid 2020s (when FGFA prodcution will begin) final numbers will be in te 320-340 range.
The "unbalanced" talk is total propoganda promoted by SAAB and LM, this has never been a serious consideration of the IAF.
Nothing has changed, so ordering 100-200 Rafales is not really logical.
Everything has changed, the govt, ministers, procurement policies, the strategic threat enviroment, execution of offset obligations by the French side etc etc.
1) The SE jet deal was Parrikar's plan, he is gone now- the Rafale deal was Modi's plan and he now has the reigns of the MoD entirely
2) China's posturing against India is hightening the need for a strike aircraft which the Rafale is tailored to, the SE jets were only ever going to be used in the West but the IAF has Pakistan covered.
3) France is progressing well in discharging their offsets obligations, particuarly their work with GRTE in reviving the Kaveri engine.
When the Rafale is absorbed by the IAF they will never look back. Why would they want the Gripen/F-16 that offers just 50-60% of the capability for 75-80% of the cost? Why would the IAF throw away the BILLIONS they have invested in training on/for the Rafale, infrastructure development for it and customising it to their needs just to get an entirely different type? it makes no sense.
The SE jet deal was always a fantasy and it will remain so.
The government and IAF is not overly impressed with Tejas.
Nonsense, they've ordered 123 units of them, as pointed out- that is more than the size of most airforces, many more will be ordered once the birds start streaming in- there is no big rush for more orders.
Modi is keen on MII, so it does not matter that Parrikar left.
Rafale MII is on its way and it will serve both the IAF's and IN's requirements for new jets- no other OEM can offer this.
The confidential document sent by the embassies is not technically a “Request for Information” (RFI), which is a precursor to a “Request for Proposals” (also known as a tender). However, it serves the same purpose, which is to determine which vendors are interested and what they are willing to offer.
Oh so the document sent out was even less worthless than an RFI which itself is worth next to nothing, the average cycle for RFI-RFP-trails/evaluations-negotiations- orders in India is around 5-7 years, if the process was begun today that would mean orders not before 2023-5 with deliveries in 2026-8! Too little, too late.
The GoI floated this with some other motives in mind- perhaps trying to test the water and see what kind of industrial packages it could get or put some extra pressure on Dassualt but the responses it has got from global OEMs/govts has been lukewarm; the US has already declined any worthwhile ToT which was a prerequisite to this deal being signed.
Modi has been in personal contact with the Swedish PM regarding Gripen/MII this summer
I'm sure it is standard practice to discuss all of these porposals whenever heads of government speak but it isn't really relevent- Modi doesn't have the authority to simply order 90+ jets, there are rules and procedures that have to be followed, as it stands no official SE jet procurement exists- it is mostly hype in the media being fuelled by some quarters with deep pockets.