Regarding 5th Gen Fighters like PAKFA/FGFA I believe it will take time. By 2025-2030 it will be inducted in small numbers and only by 2030-2035 it will find its place in IAF hangers until then its only an assumption.
IAF has sufficient numbers of Su-30s it might add another 20-30 not more otherwise 20-30 PAKFA or FGFA. Tejas will be lower end fighter filling upto 200-300 in different blocks. Rafael will fill in the place where vacuum of shortage of fighters are there i.e., around 200 fighters.
Induction of Rafael will depended on how many fighters will be retired by 2025 and how many 5th Gen fighters are inducted. There is every possibility of transferring IAF Mig-29s to IN to bring down the number of different types of fighters in IAF service. Further in future Mirage, Mig-27s, 29s & Jaguars roles will be taken over by MRCA which was the primary target of that project.
In my calculation by 2030 IAF may have 40-45 sq of 18 each consisting
Heavy - 250+ - Su-30s - upgraded to Super Su & older will be replaced by or 20-30 PAKFAs
Medium - 200+ - Rafael - upgraded or waiting to be replaced by AMCA
Low - 250+ - Tejas - upgraded in different blocks
Brother try to understand the new concept of air warfare. The world 5th Generation Fighter Plane is not just a black painted Plane with diamond shape nose, but the whole technology and the new strategy to fight the war.
Take the case of F-22, one thought of been produced closed to 1000, but than stoped at 187, why because it was more than enough. There are many experts in PDF giving their own theory, but the answer is simple, though complicated, the next gen warfare would be netcentric, well coordinated, multi spectrum, multi sensors, high intensity, short and sharp.
Why Rafale is due to the Fact, it is 5th Gen capable fighter plane that's why French won't need any fifth gen fighter plane rather an important piece called 6th Gen, which is LO combat UAV.
In Indian case MKI would provide the Air Defence Role (Super Sukhoi) till FGFA in full numbers took over the role.
But what is more important is that 5th Fighter planes are very Selective Operation intensive, and in most of the cases you don't need them, and most of the airforce are trying to cut the operational cost.
Before that let me ask you a simple question, what is the cost of the F-35, and how many Remote control Mig-21, flown remotely you can field wrt to the same cost may be 80+. Can F-35 defend the number game........?
To understand fully Read it completely from now onward.
With the proliferation of the HOBS missiles like Python 5, IRIST, and AIM 9X, the WVR fight becomes mutually Hera kari, why suppose A fires a HOBS missile toward B, and during the missile still in its journey B fires its own missile before been destroyed, and A would also be destroyed ( due to the fact that these missiles are getting better and better with 360 degree coverage and highly lethal, which a Plane could not dodge with the limits of G limit ) means both pilots have choose mutual killing each other.
So the world would prefer long range BVR shot, and keep itself safe from strandoff distance.
VLO planes have an advantage, that they could come closer to enemy while remain undetected and could fire BVR while remaining safe, because enemy could not see it and cannot target it.
Stealth vs Stealth
When two enemy planes both LO or VLO approches each other say almost same, the whole advantage of shooting the enemy from safe distance, the whole advantage of VLO/Stealth nullify, because now both the adversary planes have to come close to each other to detect each other.
So the whole Stealth/VLO concept have only advantage, when facing the less superior adversaries, or in short the enemy who don't have stealth.
So what is the broken Piece .......
The one I am referring to as the broken Piece is the VLO UAV, whose detection range would be even lesser than the 5th Gen due to the small size, slow speed, and passive sensors, but would be feed with the updates from the 5th Gen fighter plane, which is far from the danzer zone or in safe distance. And the heavy non stealth platform, but with high number of long range BVR acting as the truck load of weapon, which will fly behind the 5th Gen fighter plane.
So combined all this things what is the conclussion wrt to Indian perceptive
1. Low cost, low operational cost 4 Gen in large number, say 200/250 which is LCA offcource for CAP mission
2. High End 5th Gen around 150 number to counter country with Stealth fighter plane which is FGFA
3. Work horse for heavy lifting for A2G and A2A with large number of long range weapon which will be our MKI
4. LO UAV which could bring the real 5th Gen air fight, which is super secret AURA, which is the most important and crutial in the Future.
5. Rafale and Super MKI would form what in todays we called a Multi Role fighter Plane.
That's why the number of Rafale would depend on FGFA, because if FGFA development would be quick, then Rafale would be low number, else it would be in large number.
If you understand what I what to convey, you should have the answer of the Question, what I asked above about the F-35 and Mig-21
I am working on a thread , and this is just a small glimpse of it, hopefully you like it, and feel free to disagree with it
Regards
@PARIKRAMA @MastanKhan @Abingdonboy @knight11 @Blue Marlin @MilSpec @SR-91 @Ankit Kumar
