Agreed.
As soon as Musharaf left the Office, huge gap was created in strategic planning field and i believe it still hasn't been filled. Its was Musharaf who was willing to Induct J-10B/C in PAF and his wisdom was to strengthen Armed force of the Land of Pure but unfortunately he had to leave earlier.
J-10's were indeed offered with TOT and MOU's were signed during Musharaf's tour to China. Not sure why Pakistan backed out from that deal, i see no reason for this other then financial issues but in case of China there weren't financial issues either. God knows best.
On topic: I guess by the induction of Block- III PAF is giving hints that Future JF-17 Blocks would no longer be called light weight Fighters. Chinese AESA will be major change in Block-III but there are some concerns that how much resistant this Chinese AESA radar can be against Jamming.
Yes, the JFT has to mature up to a medium weight fighter. But the FC-20 as block IV, would've move the entire JFT program and the country of Pakistan at a level of producing Rafale / EFT like planes. That's some crazy capability.
Just so you know, I even know what Mushy drinks and what he calls it. Mushy had plans, but there wasn't any MOU signed for the TOT of the FC-20. In fact, the FC-20 C we are discussing here, didn't exist, nor did the idea of having a Chinese based AESA exist back then. The MOU was for VERY expensive J-10A (18-36 planes) and even in the initial stage, the overhaul facility wasn't even included.
The only scenario in which the PAF would get J-10B/C is if the F-16 route is firmly closed, meaning, no new planes and no cache of spare parts. In this case, the PAF might pick up 36-40 J-10s as a means to fill in the medium weight fighter gap..
You have a very "operational" mentality (no offense intended). Strategic thinking requires critical thinking. Why does it have to be one or the other (common issue in Pakistan, you see this same mentality on political threads too all the time).
In other words, WHY does the door of F-16's should be all closed before you (or PAF's strategic planners) start having a holly shiit moment? That's what operational thinking is, last minute, always panic, always blaming on other things like the Civilians, or the unavailability of the Money, or "the dog ate my homework" crap.
Any military strategic planner, even for a small country like Pakistan, should be thinking 20 years from today and what the needs might look like, where would India be (by looking at their current air-force acquisitions and guessing that they'll ONLY grow). That's strategic.
I fight with the same operational mentality on political forums on here, why does it has to be the "military" taking over and showing the "only loyalty" to Pakistan? Why can't a system be formed so everyone does their thing, irrespective of being from the Civilians or the Military. Why not look at the 20 year picture of Pakistan and hash out her defense, economy, political stability and all needs????And that includes the Civilians and the Military and its the strategic way of overcoming future challenges by putting a system and mutual agreements in place between parties.
Once you start to do that, you become "party free" or "organization / loyalty free". You see the bigger picture and say, crap!!!, I'll need all parties involved. That's strategic.
Apply that to the PAF now with respect to the FC-20. Why ONLY do FC-20 when F-16's are stopped from the US altogether? If I was running the PAF, I'd LOVE to keep both, the FC-20 as high and affordable platform, complemented by higher end F-16's. You'll have the best of both worlds.
Top line American equipment and high end internally made FC-20's. For second tier, JFT block II and III's would solve all of the PAF's issues forever. And some of these internal platforms can produce specialized and newer models Stealth optimized.
So theoretically, with the PAF being a defensive force, having the ability to make Rafale / EFT level aircraft in the shape of FC-20-C, will never need anything else. And keeping a few squadrons of upgraded F-16's will ALWAYS show you where the modern Western tech is at. So you can build more internally, per experience with the F-16's (same took place with the JFT).
Remember, the Western tech modernization comes from the US. So why can't you keep both programs and parties involved like right now (both US and China provide defensive equipment to Pakistan).
Strategic thinking means, how do you use all assets (people, processes, money and technology) in the best way possible to gain a strategic advantage. The same rule applies to Pakistan's internal political situation, and on the acquisition of F-16's and FC-20!! Strategic thinking guys. Operational thinking never succeeds as you are always tied up in small, petty, crappy and little events and details, and can't do anything big in life.