Let’s talk the talk: Confronting Bangladesh’s national security threats

[UKBengali]

They are already succeeding in this as we see reluctance and ignorance from the general public when it comes to national security matters. As for the signs of their success in BD establishment - the lack of a potent fighter jet platform is a shining example.

Again what explains the 18 TRG-300 Tiger MLRS systems that BA has?

BD in a pre-emptive attack can seriously damage Indian economic and military infrastructure around it within a matter of minutes.

1-2 squadrons of Western 4+ gen fighters could do nowhere near as much damage to India.

The lack of Western 4+ gen fighters probably comes from the fact that initially there was gross incompetence from BAF who spent scarce funds on F-7GBIs and dozens of trainers, but more recently the fact that BD government is reluctant to commit several billion US dollars to purchase a single squadron of 18 planes. They much rather spend those billions on infrastructure and probably think that what has happened with Rohingya is now a fait acompli.

I agree that BD should have followed "Forces Goal 2030" and built up those 10 4/5 generation squadrons as that is an appropriate capability of airforce for a near 200 million population country that has reached "middle-income" status by then. BAL are seriously disappointing on the defence front for me.

 

[leonblack08]

Again what explains the 18 TRG-300 Tiger MLRS systems that BA has?

BD in a pre-emptive attack can seriously damage Indian economic and military infrastructure around it within a matter of minutes.

1-2 squadrons of Western 4+ gen fighters could do nowhere near as much damage to India.

The lack of Western 4+ gen fighters probably comes from the fact that initially there was gross incompetence from BAF who spent scarce funds on F-7GBIs and dozens of trainers, but more recently the fact that BD government is reluctant to commit several billion US dollars to purchase a single squadron of 18 planes. They much rather spend those billions on infrastructure and probably think that what has happened with Rohingya is now a fait acompli.

I agree that BD should have followed "Forces Goal 2030" and built up those 10 4/5 generation squadrons as that is an appropriate capability of airforce for a near 200 million population country that has reached "middle-income" status by then. BAL are seriously disappointing on the defence front for me.

Without adequate air cover and proper air defence, TRG-300 will be one trick pony. We have no effective air defence. Therefore not much of a threat to India as opposed to say a Squadron of J-10. We are seeing how Russian airforce has been kept at bay by the Ukrainians thanks to their air defence systems.

Also, India maintains heavy military presence in the North-East. In fact, if I am not mistaken it is the next most militarized zone after the western front. So I don't think TRG-300 will be able to dole out serious damage, since we don't have a large volume of them either.

We can analyze and waste our time but still we won't be able to uncover the mystry behind BAL's inability to purchase a potent fighter platform. Forget fighter jet - why we couldn't at least even impletment a multi-layered AD system after BAL has been over a decade in power. It would have been less expensive than fighter jets. To date we only have some Short range FM-90s to show for. No MRSAM, forget LRSAMs.

So it's either Bangladesh doesn't have the money OR there is no willingness to spend on defence due to pressure from external entity. Clearly Bangladesh have increased defence spending over the years, so the money seems to be available. That only leaves the latter option.

 

[Avicenna]

Without adequate air cover and proper air defence, TRG-300 will be one trick pony. We have no effective air defence. Therefore not much of a threat to India as opposed to say a Squadron of J-10. We are seeing how Russian airforce has been kept at bay by the Ukrainians thanks to their air defence systems.

Also, India maintains heavy military presence in the North-East. In fact, if I am not mistaken it is the next most militarized zone after the western front. So I don't think TRG-300 will be able to dole out serious damage, since we don't have a large volume of them either.

We can analyze and waste our time but still we won't be able to uncover the mystry behind BAL's inability to purchase a potent fighter platform. Forget fighter jet - why we couldn't at least even impletment a multi-layered AD system after BAL has been over a decade in power. It would have been less expensive than fighter jets. To date we only have some Short range FM-90s to show for. No MRSAM, forget LRSAMs.

So it's either Bangladesh doesn't have the money OR there is no willingness to spend on defence due to pressure from external entity. Clearly Bangladesh have increased defence spending over the years, so the money seems to be available. That only leaves the latter option.

Straight truth!

 

[El Sidd]

Climate change is Bangladesh's only credible threat.

 

[UKBengali]

Without adequate air cover and proper air defence, TRG-300 will be one trick pony. We have no effective air defence. Therefore not much of a threat to India as opposed to say a Squadron of J-10. We are seeing how Russian airforce has been kept at bay by the Ukrainians thanks to their air defence systems.

No they are not as they can be hidden in the forests of BD where it will be almost impossible for India to target them.
This and the fact that they are mobile would make them highly survivable for a long time after outbreak of war. You give Indian military far too much credit here.

If BD had not purchased TRG-300 then people like you would have said that it was India that was stopping their purchase.

I am sure that even if BD somehow managed to get 1-2 squadrons of Western 4+ gen fighters, then you would just move onto a lack of modern submarines.

As for the money, there is a big difference between spending a billion US dollars in Taka and that on hard US dollar currency.

PS - Are you aware that those 2 upgraded Ming submarines are actually quite a threat to the Indian Navy? Indians were going crazy when BD announced their purchase.

 

[leonblack08]

No they are not as they can be hidden in the forests of BD where it will be almost impossible for India to target them.
This and the fact that they are mobile would make them highly survivable for a long time after outbreak of war. You give Indian military far too much credit here.

If BD had not purchased TRG-300 then people like you would have said that it was India that was stopping their purchase.

I am sure that even if BD somehow managed to get 1-2 squadrons of Western 4+ gen fighters, then you would just move onto a lack of modern submarines.

As for the money, there is a big difference between spending a billion US dollars in Taka and that on hard US dollar currency.

PS - Are you aware that those 2 upgraded Ming submarines are actually quite a threat to the Indian Navy? Indians were going crazy when BD announced their purchase.

No, I would not. I give credit where its due and criticize where it warrants one. Do not try to lump me into any particular group.

The Ming subs are not a big threat to India. Those are not a system that can substantially turn the tide of a war. Indian media was crying even when Bangladesh first obtained C-802 during the Caretaker Government. Indian media will cry at anything Bangladesh procures.

 

[leonblack08]

No they are not as they can be hidden in the forests of BD where it will be almost impossible for India to target them.
This and the fact that they are mobile would make them highly survivable for a long time after outbreak of war. You give Indian military far too much credit here.

Forgot to mention earlier - Russian Tornadoes, which are comparable to TRG also got destroyed in the Ukraininan frontline.

Vegetation can only give cover to some extent. When the enemy dominates the skies - the TRGs will be spotted. You need a combination of systems to support each other and work together to be effective. One system on its own cannot turn the tide of a war, unless we are talking about nuclear warheards.

 

[UKBengali]

Forgot to mention earlier - Russian Tornadoes, which are comparable to TRG also got destroyed in the Ukraininan frontline.

No one is arguing that India would not be able to find them and destroy them but the question is now long it would take them - it is not going to be some hours or even a few days.

We are talking weeks here to locate and destroy evety single one and during that time they could be targeting ports, other infrastructure and military installations up to 120km from where they are located.

You also seem to think that India would not be going after the 1-2 squadrons of 4+ gen fighters. As they are restricted to fixed airports they would be easier to destroy and target. You do not even need to destroy them as you can put the runways out of action.


PS - You also think that 1-2 squadrons of modern fighters are a big threat to India and can turn the tide of the war?

 

[leonblack08]

No one is arguing that India would not be able to find them and destroy them but the question is now long it would take them - it is not going to be some hours or even a few days.

We are talking weeks here to locate and destroy evety single one and during that time they could be targeting ports, other infrastructure and military installations up to 120km from where they are located.

You also seem to think that India would not be going after the 1-2 squadrons of 4+ gen fighters. As they are restricted to fixed runways they would be easier to destroy and target. You do not even need to destroy them as you can put the runways out of action.


PS - You also think that 1-2 squadrons of modern fighters are a big threat to India and can turn the tide of the war?

No, I never mentioned I seem to think fighter jets are going to change the course of a war. It's all about different weapon systems coming together. Even the jets cannot survive on their own and will need support from other systems such as AD and ABM to work effectively.

This entire discussion isn't about whether fighter jet is a better deterrant than a MLRS system.

This discussion is about how BAL failed to show intent towards building that effective system. Since they bought TRGs, they should have supplemented it with a multi-layered air defence, early warning radars and further bolstered it with fighter jets.

If they had bought jets, and nothing else - I would be criticizing them still because they need the appropriate support system to protect those jets to be effective deterrant.

You cannot have one system and call it a day. That's not how modern day warfare works.

The Govt. had plenty of time to show progress towards such comprehensive network. If they had prioritized it as they should have, we could probably have even prevented the influx of Rohingya in 2017, who are causing a strain on our economy.

 

[UKBengali]

No, I never mentioned I seem to think fighter jets are going to change the course of a war. It's all about different weapon systems coming together. Even the jets cannot survive on their own and will need support from other systems such as AD and ABM to work effectively.

This entire discussion isn't about whether fighter jet is a better deterrant than a MLRS system.

This discussion is about how BAL failed to show intent towards building that effective system. Since they bought TRGs, they should have supplemented it with a multi-layered air defence, early warning radars and further bolstered it with fighter jets.

If they had bought jets, and nothing else - I would be criticizing them still because they need the appropriate support system to protect those jets to be effective deterrant.

You cannot have one system and call it a day. That's not how modern day warfare works.

The Govt. had plenty of time to show progress towards such comprehensive network. If they had prioritized it as they should have, we could probably have even prevented the influx of Rohingya in 2017, who are causing a strain on our economy.

I am not saying only TRG-300 and that is enough.

You mentioned that lack of 4+ gen fighters means that India has a veto and my counter-argument is that TRG-300 is even more of a threat to India and so that must have been "allowed".

We can at least agree that BD needs all kinds of weapons systems as a balanced force. I would argue that MRSAM network probably would be more effective quicker as it would take some time to get a capable air-force in place.

MRSAM country-wide system should be ordered now along with 1 single squadron of something like Eurofighter. BD has the money and it is all about priorities and unfortunately Hasina and BAL lacks it.

 

[leonblack08]

I am not saying only TRG-300 and that is enough.

You mentioned that lack of 4+ gen fighters means that India has a veto and my counter-argument is that TRG-300 is even more of a threat to India and so that must have been "allowed".

We can at least agree that BD needs all kinds of weapons systems as a balanced force. I would argue that MRSAM network probably would be more effective quicker as it would take some time to get a capable air-force in place.

MRSAM country-wide system should be ordered now along with 1 single squadron of something like Eurofighter. BD has the money and it is all about priorities and unfortunately Hasina and BAL lacks it.

It's the intent from the Govt. that has been frustrating. Which is why the question of Indian infiltration and influence in Bangladesh's strategic affairs pops up.

Because that is the only rational explanation, since we do have the money to have at least a decent air defence network if not 4.5 gen jets.

 

[Homo Sapiens]

As I said before Forces Goal 2030 is a joke.

There are some credible progress happening under Forces goal 2030. But the problem is current pace of progress is not enough to fulfill the stated aim within 2030. COVID-19 and economic shock caused by Russia-Ukraine war only slowed the already slow progress.

The progress I am talking about is mainly about structural and infrastructure related rather than weapon acquision which we most likely want to see. But before we induct large number of arms we need to organize our house first. We can not induct modern submarine unless we build modern submarine base at first. Similarly to house newer generaton fighter jets, we at first need to build modern air base with all facilities. Bangladesh's defence budget is still quite small and 10 years ago it was minuscule. So a lot of basic requirement for a modern armed forces were absent which we need to build first. I will mention some of the real progress happened under forces goal 2030-

1. Our army went from 7 infantry divisions to 10 infantry divisions within the last 8 years. Which mean it's manpower increased at least 40 percent. Not to mention building all those cantonments and other infrastructure to house these divisions. We farther need to attain full strength of all of these 10 divisions.

2. Acquisition of Submarine and under-construction of a Submarine base in Cox's Bazar with a cost of 1.2 billion Dollar with Chinese assistance. This is very significant as we aim to become a significant Submarine force in near future. A full fledged naval base with submarine birthing facility also being build at Patuakhali right now.

3. Establishment of Airbase in Dhaka, Cox's Bazar and ongoing construction of full fledged air base in Barishal and Sylhet. Procuring modern fighter jets would be futile if we can not give them proper housing and facilities. Modern radar units also set up at Cox's Bazar, Barishal etc.

4. Modernization of various shipyards and undertaking of building warships. Already build a number of vessels for navy and coast guard and launched a program to build six modern frigates with the technological collaboration with foreign countries in our shipyard. This is very significant if we want our navy furnished with ship indigenously supplied.

5. Establishment of an aeronautical center which enabled us to maintain, repair and overhaul aircrafts. Because of this aeronautical center, our air force engineers now started manufacturing spare parts and working on to build trainer aircraft for air force. This is the beginning of a long road of our ambition to supply our armed forces indigenously manufactured aircraft in the future.

6. Modernization and capacity enhancement of our ordnance factory. Few months ago,a military person on a tv show said that, ordnance factory 's ammunition production capacity increased 12 times in recent years. Moreover Ordnance Factory is establishing production line of manufacturing APC, IFV. Morters, missile and various other weapons for army . This is very crucial to enhance our real fighting capability.

These are some of the important things achieved or progressing under forces goal 2030. We have to keep in mind that, our defence budget is very limited. unlike our neighboring countries, defence is low on the priority list, Within this tight budget, our armed forces are working on multiple areas of capacity enhancement and indigenization. So big ticket foreign items are not coming as soon as we expect them to come. Maybe it will gather pace once our infrastructure deficit is largely overcome after a few years.

 

[UKBengali]

It's the intent from the Govt. that has been frustrating. Which is why the question of Indian infiltration and influence in Bangladesh's strategic affairs pops up.

Because that is the only rational explanation, since we do have the money to have at least a decent air defence network if not 4.5 gen jets.

I think that Hasina and BA leadership are so obsessed with infrastructure development and the economy that they somehow wishfully want to think that the military can wait till far off into the future to buy anything substantial like fighter jets.

Trying to get into their heads, they may be thinking that is not much more that Myanmar can do in terms of pushing more Rohingya into BD and BD would literally have to become a very agressive state to force the savages to take back the Rohingya - that probably won't even be feasible by just military and diplomatic posture and BD will need to invade and annex northern Arakahhan to guarantee the safety and security of the Rohingyas. BD population may not care enough for Rohingya to go down this path of war with a dysfunctiona state that has very little to lose as it is a total impoverished hole.

Like we say, no-one knows what calculations they have made but in 2023 it is crystal clear that the Rohingya are not going back while BAL remain in power under the current leadership.

It is a shame as they have done wonders with the economy but it is embarrassing how they are allowing a two-bit s*it-hole next door to bully them and BD by extension. BD should have always been dominant over a non-country like that.

3. Establishment of Airbase in Dhaka, Cox's Bazar and ongoing construction of full fledged air base in Barishal and Sylhet. Procuring modern fighter jets would be futile if we can not give them proper housing and facilities.

If BD was to order a new type of jet, infrastructure and maintenance facilities would come as part of the package. BD has plenty of airbases already where these planes can be based.

 

[Homo Sapiens]

BD has plenty of airbases already where these planes can be based.

Bangladesh does not have a single dedicated air base now. This is very dangerous for any war situation. Even the number of civilian airports now functioning as air bases are inadequate for need. After Sylhet and Barishal full-fledged dedicated air base get ready, this severe shortcoming will get remedied somewhat.

 

[UKBengali]

Bangladesh does not have a single dedicated air base now. This is very dangerous for any war situation. Even the number of civilian airports now functioning as air bases are inadequate for need. After Sylhet and Barishal full-fledged dedicated air base get ready, this severe shortcoming will get remedied somewhat.

Thanks I did not know that.

Makes you wonder what BD government's over these decades have been doing.