Lates IRI Survey, PMLN Wins Again

[batmannow]

Is it just me, who is unable to find such a report on IRI website?

wrong search , try PMLn site, cause they posted even before IRI ,thats what happens when you pay the croupted media!
they thought IRI did thier job,but they are so ignorant/PMLn?

 

[jha]

PPP has a simple majority even now. Even in the worst case, PML-N can't get a majority in the elections

I came to this conclusion after taking the anti-incumbency factor, Scandals , Inflation , Power problem and Judiciary in consideration. I might be totally wrong but the above reasons i mentioned have potential to change regime.

And no single party will get a majority in any multi-party democracy. This is unfortunate reality and citizens of every multi-party democracy should be ready for a coalition govt. Thats why I said that a coalition headed by PML-N has high chances of coming to power.

 

[truthseer]

I came to this conclusion after taking the anti-incumbency factor, Scandals , Inflation , Power problem and Judiciary in consideration. I might be totally wrong but the above reasons i mentioned have potential to change regime.

And no single party will get a majority in any multi-party democracy. This is unfortunate reality and citizens of every multi-party democracy should be ready for a coalition govt. Thats why I said that a coalition headed by PML-N has high chances of coming to power.

You're from India, I guess you'll understand what I'll say. The major voters live in rural areas with no TV, for whom PPP is like God, supplying their needs.

Same with Congress, I think, in rural areas?

 

[Areesh]

I came to this conclusion after taking the anti-incumbency factor, Scandals , Inflation , Power problem and Judiciary in consideration. I might be totally wrong but the above reasons i mentioned have potential to change regime.

And no single party will get a majority in any multi-party democracy. This is unfortunate reality and citizens of every multi-party democracy should be ready for a coalition govt. Thats why I said that a coalition headed by PML-N has high chances of coming to power.

PPP is finished. Would only win seats in Sindh. You hear it first here. Next elections are for PML(N), PTI, MQM, etc etc

 

[truthseer]

PPP is finished. Would only win seats in Sindh. You hear it first here. Next elections are for PML(N), PTI, MQM, etc etc

PPP has more than 10-12 feudals in Punjab, that's 10-12 seats there, confirmed.

And these are the big ones, don't be surprised if PPP does much better than you think

 

[Edevelop]

 

[Areesh]

PPP has more than 10-12 feudals in Punjab, that's 10-12 seats there, confirmed.

And these are the big ones, don't be surprised if PPP does much better than you think

Those feudal would go into some other party. #lotas

PPP has no future. Those feudal also know that.

 

[batmannow]

PPP is finished. Would only win seats in Sindh. You hear it first here. Next elections are for PML(N), PTI, MQM, etc etc

sorry to disagree, with new punjab governer in town , PPP in punjab in a process of reload!

 

[Areesh]

sorry to disagree, with new punjab governer in town , PPP in punjab in a process of reload!

Too much damage done. North and Central Punjab already lost, Only South Punjab is where they have some chance. But they will get tough challenge by PTI since it has Shah Mehmood Qureshi, Javed Hasmi, Jahangir Tareen, Lagharis etc etc. PML(N) also has some good candidates.

Zardari is trying to win something by some dirty politics. Don't think he would succeed much. ANP is also finished.

 

[truthseer]

JUI has had a 100% rise in popularity. Misleading OP

 

[batmannow]

Too much damage done. North and Central Punjab already lost, Only South Punjab is where they have some chance. But they will get tough challenge by PTI since it has Shah Mehmood Qureshi, Javed Hasmi, Jahangir Tareen, Lagharis etc etc. PML(N) also has some good candidates.

Zardari is trying to win something by some dirty politics. Don't think he would succeed much. ANP is also finished.

in this system of crouption, peoples follow power, PTI may lose this fight vry close!
with new governer playing the hard balls, south punjab already been in the PPP hands, imagine saif khosa son of zulfiqar khosa, joinned PPP , just last weak!
also try to follow, how many have joinned! PPP just last week!
so dont think PPP out of game, actully its back in the game with more power, thats why you see, CH nisar demanding stupid. demands just to get some bargain?

 

[jha]

You're from India, I guess you'll understand what I'll say. The major voters live in rural areas with no TV, for whom PPP is like God, supplying their needs.

Same with Congress, I think, in rural areas?

Yes... Absolutely Correct. Plus Congress party has some of the shrewdest minds at work. I wont be very surprised if they again come back in 2014. If PPP also has similar arsenal of tacticians then it has some chances of coming back.

BTW PPP has already fired the opening shot by announcing the formation of new state. People here are underestimating the consequence of this move.

Interesting times ahead for people like me who like to keep track of elections.

PPP is finished. Would only win seats in Sindh. You hear it first here. Next elections are for PML(N), PTI, MQM, etc etc

With due respect, I cant agree that PPP will be finished. It will get fewer seats and wont be able to form govt. ( most probably ) without a massive coalition. But same will be the case with other parties also.

Let me explain this further. At most of the places the contest will be between PPP and anti-PPP votes. Many Pakistanis here wont agree with this but this is how anti-incumbency factor works. And in such a case the anti-PPP votes will be divided into a number of candidates. And this will be a deciding factor. Even if at most of the places PPP gets 30-35% of the total votes cast, It will emerge as one of the top 3 performer and at many of these places will win also.

Those who understand the election process in multi-party democracy will tell you that elections are not won just by getting more votes but also by dividing the opposition votes into more number of candidates.

 

[Edevelop]

This is for November 2012. I'm sure PML-N's rating has further increased. They have allied with Mahmood Khan Achakzai and Talal Bugti. PTI and MQM's rating have gone down for sure after they were contemplating on joining Tahir Ul-Qadri'. Remember, they still consider him as a possible coalition partner.

 

[Areesh]

in this system of crouption, peoples follow power, PTI may lose this fight vry close!
with new governer playing the hard balls, south punjab already been in the PPP hands, imagine saif khosa son of zulfiqar khosa, joinned PPP , just last weak!
also try to follow, how many have joinned! PPP just last week!
so dont think PPP out of game, actully its back in the game with more power, thats why you see, CH nisar demanding stupid. demands just to get some bargain?

Khosa's son joined PPP because he had some differences with his family. Alone he can't destroy the influence of his father. We have all seen how Wattoo failed miserably in Punjab.

 

[INDIC]

You're from India, I guess you'll understand what I'll say. The major voters live in rural areas with no TV, for whom PPP is like God, supplying their needs.

Same with Congress, I think, in rural areas?

Yes, rural voters shows different trends from Urban voters. They don't care why Economy is screwed or what is IMF debt, all they care about their basic needs or candidate belong to their community, in Pakistan's case feudal lords or clerics.

Last time Congress won because of NREGA scheme, guaranteed 100 days employment in rural areas.

I think in Pakistan feudal lords still have lots of influence on their votes. And religious clerics too influence the voting trends