Ladakh: No 'Deal' was Struck with China

[Gandhi G in da house]

Where have all the cheerleaders gone ?

 

[S-DUCT]

Glad to see this incursion by China end peacefully with both India and China pulling out from DBO. I wonder how could the Chinese have miscalculated the reaction from such a stupid move in the first place.

 

[Joe Shearer]

It won't be over until hongwu's lost armoured division finds its way back home!

It doesn't matter as long as they get Internet access and scare the rest of the world with Internet rants.

 

[Armstrong]

It doesn't matter as long as they get Internet access and scare the rest of the world with Internet rants.

Nahhh iss retort ka mazaa nahin ayaaaa !

Anything without that typical @Joe Shearer sarcasm rendered in prim & proper English to the point of being flamboyant in its vocabulary & sentence structure that makes a person read twice 'Ke likaa kiyaa haii', is a step down, your grace !

 

[Ayush]

Where have all the cheerleaders gone ?

They are with HongWu's brigade. ..

 

[danger007]

They are with HongWu's brigade. ..

i am sending you warning, the brigade waiting for orders from ccp.... so back off bud....

 

[Ayush]

i am sending you warning, the brigade waiting for orders from ccp.... so back off bud....

Ok.. I think I am gonna go study now...

 

[Armstrong]

Ok.. I think I am gonna go study now...

Tu jo marziii kar leiii your Mom is still going to say - Abaaai GPA dekkhaa haii apnaaaa ?

Saath waliii aunty ke beteii ka tou 3.98 thaaa !

 

[Ayush]

Tu jo marziii kar leiii your Mom is still going to say - Abaaai GPA dekkhaa haii apnaaaa ?

Saath waliii aunty ke beteii ka tou 3.98 thaaa !

Hehe..remember my gpa system?? Its out of 10.. I think I will get around 6...

 

[Joe Shearer]

What happened was that China tried to pull a fast one. They thought that their platoon waving banners would actually scare Indians away. Maybe they did their intelligence assessment on PDF, because in the real world, India does not take kindly to intrusions or incursions. Their all weather friend could have told them that.

China underestimated India's will. Plain and simple. They did not expect that India would be prepared to degrade relations for a small, uninhabited plot of land. But you see, this is the advantage of having an open society, a free media, and a government that is accountable to the people. Since the media cried blood over this incursion, the govt had no choice but to stand up to this attempted encroachment. They would rather let our soldiers fire and face fire, than let themselves be fired upon by their electorate in the next elections.

Come 2014, if the chinese were still sitting in their tents there, the UPA govt would not sit in parliament. They are answerable to their electorate which, although largely ignorant of defence issues, has self respect. The public mood during the Italian marines saga was that India should cut off multi billion dollar trade relations with a European power, rather than allow herself to be hoodwinked by them. The media coverage of this issue ensured that the public at large would have been prepared to degrade all relations with China, or even go to war, instead of allowing squatters in our territory.

The Chinese completely missed that factor. A funny little thing called Public Opinion, which is of paramount importance in democracies. Not being elected by the people, none of their rulers realized the effect of that wonderful thing on public policy, diplomatic relations, military affairs and everything else in public interest.

Let's not forget, they did not come prepared for war! They simply sent a patrol in, and kept them resupplied, in the expectation that that should be enough to send shivers down India's spine. If they had mobilized for a border war, then we could say that they were in it for the long haul. But given how they acted, sending in a small patrol and expecting India to start dismantling our bunkers and airstrips and infrastructure, we can only conclude that they seriously misunderestimated (yes, I know that's a bushism) Indian will and Indian mettle.

The Indian side must have made it clear that the intruders will be arrested or evicted if they did not voluntarily leave, and that India was prepared for the eventualities that may arise. Let's not forget one thing - Indian forces have been practising the two front war scenario, and all our recent exercises have been to validate those concepts. The MKIs have been practising take offs from one border and bombing the other and returning, as witnessed in the recently concluded "Exercise livewire".

What does that mean? Does it mean that we could completely defeat China in war? No. But it means that we can make it completely pointless for them to go to war against us. It means that we can make them pay a heavy price, and that any victory they achieve will be pyrrhic. And our negotiators must have informed them of our stance, that if the intruders did not go back, we are prepared to pay the price of evicting them.

China blinked.

The intruders packed their tents and went back.

All is well.

I couldn't disagree more with your analysis.

This is a time of transition, and none of the paradigms adopted by the previous regime remain sacred. It is clear that the PLA, the PLA AF and the PLAN are modernising rapidly. Slower than they wished, but faster than we are. It is also known to us and to the rest of the world that the military machine that jarred the fillings in the teeth of the victorious US Army emerging from WWII, that swept through Tibet, and that used a brilliant military campaign to beat a hard-bitten professional force only twenty years away from facing down both the Wehrmacht and the Imperial Japanese Army is not to be under-rated at any time. They are not the kind of organisation that gets into ego trips and pushes the envelope, just to impress itself and its girl-friends. Whatever they do, they do for a reason, a national purpose.

The PRC sent us a message, a loud one. They don't want to drag things on, not any more. They want a resolution. Unfortunately, that window when we could have exchanged Aksai Chin for their claims on Arunachal is closed. I doubt that we will get an easy solution, as things stand. But there isn't much choice. We cannot match the Chinese, not with our logistics in the rickety condition that it is in, not with our mountain divisions bereft of a policy for mountain warfare, not with our artillery seriously obsolete, thanks to egregious political neglect by both the Congress and the gormless hyper-nationalists who did nothing except talk up a storm when they were out of power, and tried to fiddle with textbooks and organised pogroms when they were in power. We have insufficient MANPADs, insufficient fire-power at platoon and company level to stop an attacker in the mountains, insufficient stores of ammunition, supplies or food due to our sclerotic supply lines.

This is not the time to fight. We know it, the Chinese know it. They are putting on pressure, and, typically, in Chinese fashion, having put on the pressure, and conveyed clearly what the respective inventory is, they took it off. Now it's up to us. We can respond with realism and intelligence, and cut a deal, whatever the deal is, or we can react like a teenager with raging hormones, and try to fight on emotion, instead of fighting with fighting skills, proper supplies, the right equipment and with good leadership.

Why so many of us think it was a victory for India really defeats me.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Alternative interpretation of events: this whole episode was engineered by India.

India knew that infrastructure work so close to the LAC would be seen as provocation by China and that it (China) would have to make a statement, however perfunctory. Also, knowing that China is already embroiled in tensions to its East, India knew that China would not be keen on a two-front escalation right now. Add to that China's desire to keep tensions with India to a minimum to avoid an opening for the West.

Therefore, from the Indian viewpoint, the infrastructure provocation was calculated and the Chinese reaction predicted. The Indian media circus was also a preordained part of the scenario. Chances are the Chinese knew what game was being played, but they could not let the Indian provocation go unanswered; they had to respond.

All in all, a well played chess move by the Indian establishment.

Sometimes I wonder if your surname happens to be Gandhi.

IMO India won't agree on any such draft about troop level freezing atleast anytime soon. May be we can agree upon those only after we complete enough infrastructure near our border for quick movement......but India can agree on other CBMs like not patrol tailing etc...lets see!!

Wouldn't agree?

And what if seven Chinese Divisions asked us to? Politely? What is this 'wouldn't agree' business?

 

[Ayush]

Tu jo marziii kar leiii your Mom is still going to say - Abaaai GPA dekkhaa haii apnaaaa ?

Saath waliii aunty ke beteii ka tou 3.98 thaaa !

Hehe..remember my gpa system?? Its out of 10.. I think I will get around 6...

 

[senkakudefender]

What happened was that China tried to pull a fast one. They thought that their platoon waving banners would actually scare Indians away. Maybe they did their intelligence assessment on PDF, because in the real world, India does not take kindly to intrusions or incursions. Their all weather friend could have told them that.

China underestimated India's will. Plain and simple. They did not expect that India would be prepared to degrade relations for a small, uninhabited plot of land. But you see, this is the advantage of having an open society, a free media, and a government that is accountable to the people. Since the media cried blood over this incursion, the govt had no choice but to stand up to this attempted encroachment. They would rather let our soldiers fire and face fire, than let themselves be fired upon by their electorate in the next elections.

Come 2014, if the chinese were still sitting in their tents there, the UPA govt would not sit in parliament. They are answerable to their electorate which, although largely ignorant of defence issues, has self respect. The public mood during the Italian marines saga was that India should cut off multi billion dollar trade relations with a European power, rather than allow herself to be hoodwinked by them. The media coverage of this issue ensured that the public at large would have been prepared to degrade all relations with China, or even go to war, instead of allowing squatters in our territory.

The Chinese completely missed that factor. A funny little thing called Public Opinion, which is of paramount importance in democracies. Not being elected by the people, none of their rulers realized the effect of that wonderful thing on public policy, diplomatic relations, military affairs and everything else in public interest.

Let's not forget, they did not come prepared for war! They simply sent a patrol in, and kept them resupplied, in the expectation that that should be enough to send shivers down India's spine. If they had mobilized for a border war, then we could say that they were in it for the long haul. But given how they acted, sending in a small patrol and expecting India to start dismantling our bunkers and airstrips and infrastructure, we can only conclude that they seriously misunderestimated (yes, I know that's a bushism) Indian will and Indian mettle.

The Indian side must have made it clear that the intruders will be arrested or evicted if they did not voluntarily leave, and that India was prepared for the eventualities that may arise. Let's not forget one thing - Indian forces have been practising the two front war scenario, and all our recent exercises have been to validate those concepts. The MKIs have been practising take offs from one border and bombing the other and returning, as witnessed in the recently concluded "Exercise livewire".

What does that mean? Does it mean that we could completely defeat China in war? No. But it means that we can make it completely pointless for them to go to war against us. It means that we can make them pay a heavy price, and that any victory they achieve will be pyrrhic. And our negotiators must have informed them of our stance, that if the intruders did not go back, we are prepared to pay the price of evicting them.

China blinked.

The intruders packed their tents and went back.

All is well.

sir youre view is clear, neutral and logical. keep it coming

 

[HongWu]

India-China pullback: what happened behind the scenes | NDTV.com

The stand-off began on April 15 when Chinese troops came 19 km inside what India claims to be its own territory and set up a make-shift base in Raki Nalla - 30 km south of Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO) - an advanced landing ground help by India in North Ladakh. DBO overlooks the Karakoram Pass and the crucial Karakoram Highway that connects China and Pakistan. Soon after, India set up its own post just 500 metres away.

However, sources have told NDTV that the trade-off between India and China also revolves around the construction in the Chumar sector of southern Ladakh, bordering Himachal Pradesh.

The Indian Army was reportedly building seven bunkers in Chumar. The construction began in April; work on one bunker was completed and the process of digging earth for four others was on. The general area of Chumar is disputed and claimed by both sides. According to existing agreements, neither side is allowed to construct any permanent structure, more so if they are either offensive or defensive in nature.

The Indian Army was also aggressively patrolling the sector, which was opposed by the Chinese. It is understood that Indian Army patrols had cut off the access routes of the Chinese patrols in this sector and in process may have triggered the current crisis.

The assurance that has been reportedly given to China is that the constructions of the bunkers will be stopped for the time being.

However, the assurance of suspending, for the time being, construction in Chumar doesn't qualify as a concession to China since both countries have agreed not to construct in the disputed areas, a senior Ministry of Defence official told NDTV. According to the 2005 Border Protocol Agreement between India and China, neither side is supposed to construct in contested areas.

Now, New Delhi is keen to renegotiate the 2005 Border Protocol Agreement so that it allows India some room develop its own infrastructure. And, although China had earlier indicated its willingness to renegotiate the agreement India had shown no urgency and had let the offer go by.


Developero is correct. China has bigger problems to deal with on the Eastern front. Joe is also correct. China is pulling its punches but can get much rougher we want to. Everything hinges on whether GOI can work out a deal with us in good faith. The annexation that Indian Army tried to pull in Chumar is unacceptable and this episode is intended to convey this message.

 

[thinkingcap81]

I couldn't disagree more with your analysis.

This is a time of transition, and none of the paradigms adopted by the previous regime remain sacred. It is clear that the PLA, the PLA AF and the PLAN are modernising rapidly. Slower than they wished, but faster than we are. It is also known to us and to the rest of the world that the military machine that jarred the fillings in the teeth of the victorious US Army emerging from WWII, that swept through Tibet, and that used a brilliant military campaign to beat a hard-bitten professional force only twenty years away from facing down both the Wehrmacht and the Imperial Japanese Army is not to be under-rated at any time. They are not the kind of organisation that gets into ego trips and pushes the envelope, just to impress itself and its girl-friends. Whatever they do, they do for a reason, a national purpose.

The PRC sent us a message, a loud one. They don't want to drag things on, not any more. They want a resolution. Unfortunately, that window when we could have exchanged Aksai Chin for their claims on Arunachal is closed. I doubt that we will get an easy solution, as things stand. But there isn't much choice. We cannot match the Chinese, not with our logistics in the rickety condition that it is in, not with our mountain divisions bereft of a policy for mountain warfare, not with our artillery seriously obsolete, thanks to egregious political neglect by both the Congress and the gormless hyper-nationalists who did nothing except talk up a storm when they were out of power, and tried to fiddle with textbooks and organised pogroms when they were in power. We have insufficient MANPADs, insufficient fire-power at platoon and company level to stop an attacker in the mountains, insufficient stores of ammunition, supplies or food due to our sclerotic supply lines.

This is not the time to fight. We know it, the Chinese know it. They are putting on pressure, and, typically, in Chinese fashion, having put on the pressure, and conveyed clearly what the respective inventory is, they took it off. Now it's up to us. We can respond with realism and intelligence, and cut a deal, whatever the deal is, or we can react like a teenager with raging hormones, and try to fight on emotion, instead of fighting with fighting skills, proper supplies, the right equipment and with good leadership.

Why so many of us think it was a victory for India really defeats me.

Hi, thanks for your post. I kept wondering why & what the Chinese achieved and what the actual story was.

Given our slow pace of modernization viz a viz China, wouldn't it have been better for the Chinese to wait for some other opportune time, say 5 years from now, and apply even greater economic and diplomatic pressure?