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'KP HAS DONE WELL': PROVINCES MUST PREPARE OWN GROWTH STRATEGIES: PASHA
Former Advisor to Prime Minister, Dr Hafeez Pasha Friday said Khyber Pakhtunkhawa has done well in terms of foreign remittance, per capita income and employment as compared to other provinces and emphasised that provinces must prepare their own growth strategies on annual basis. Speaking at the launch of Institute of Policy Reforms brief on growth and provincial economics, he stated that in Punjab growth and production of crops declined while in Sindh industrial growth has slowed.
He added that KP economies have done well in terms of foreign remittances, per capita income and employment. He said time has come now that federal and provincial bureaus of statistics should undertake preparation of data and accounts on provinces. Pasha said that trouble in Karachi was causing an estimated loss of Rs 400 billion annually while serious problem of governance was manifested in poor social indicators of Punjab and Sindh provinces and KP was the only province which showed continuous increase in literacy.
He added that literacy fell from 60 percent to 58 percent. He felt that planning in Pakistan must reorient to a bottom-up approach whereby provincial development plans must aggregate into a national plan. He presented estimates of provincial GDPs for the 15-year period between 1999-2000 and 2014-15. He said that his study of provincial GDPs also deepened knowledge about drivers of growth and their geographical location.
Pasha stated that Punjab has a 54 percent share in the national economy, followed by 30 percent Sindh, 13 percent KP, and 3 percent Balochistan. Share of each province has changed in the 15 years under review.The most pronounced shift is in KP whose share has increased from 11 percent in 2000 to 13 percent in 2015, whereas the share of Balochistan declined from 3.8 to 2.9 percent. Looking at productive sectors, Punjab's share in agriculture production is 62 percent, Sindh 23 percent, and KP has a share of 10 percent. In industry, Punjab's share is 40 percent; Sindh has a share of 42 percent and KP 14 percent, he added.
He said during 2000-08 when the economy grew rapidly, Sindh was the best performing economy with high growth in large-scale industry but provincial economic growth declined during the two succeeding periods of 2008-13 and 2013-15. Punjab grew faster than other provinces during periods of slow growth and throughout these periods, the KP economy has maintained a healthy rate of growth of 5 percent or above.
Pasha added that growth in production of major crops in Punjab, which accounts for 75 percent of national value added to these crops, has declined while deteriorating law and order in Karachi coupled with power shortage has slowed industrial growth in Sindh with its effect on national growth. Since 2008, industry in Sindh has actually contracted while KP economy has done well, however, sustainability of its growth is open to question. Foreign remittances have largely driven KP growth, where 20 percent of household income comes from remittances. The corresponding figures for Punjab and Sindh are 10 percent and 3 percent. KP has acquired the characteristics of a remittance led service economy with limited indigenous production base, he added.
Balochistan has had the slowest economic growth where 'real per capita income may have actually fallen'. Insurgency seems to be the major reason for this. Agriculture, however, has been buoyant in Balochistan. Increase in provincial resources after the 7th NFC Award may have begun to have some impact on the province's economic growth rate. As per report, shifts in per capita income among provinces are profound. In 2000, Sindh had the highest per capita income among provinces. Today, it has slipped to third place with Punjab at number one. KP ranked fourth in 2000, moved to third place by 2008 and is currently second highest. Employment has moved in a similar way. Between 2000 and 2008, Sindh had the highest growth rate of jobs of 4.5 percent. Currently, KP has the highest growth rate.
With increase in per capita income in KP, inequality among provinces has fallen, especially as Sindh has lost growth momentum in recent years. Balochistan remains a concern as slow growth may have increased inequality with other provinces. Inequality in household income within each province is highest in Punjab and lowest in KP. Balochistan has the second highest inequality and Sindh is at number three. Report on 'Growth of the Provincial Economies' was prepared by Hafeez Pasha.
In his address of welcome, IPR Chairman Humayun Akhtar Khan stated that the Institute's research launched today was the first in-depth study of provincial economies in the country. He stated that increased financial and administrative powers with the provinces, since the last NFC Award and the 18th Amendment to the Constitution, meant that national growth is now an outcome of local and provincial growth. This realisation seems to have been lost. Each province must have a development and growth strategy for its economy. However, planners are at a disadvantage, as Pakistan does not prepare provincial accounts. He said that given paucity of data on sub-national economies, IPR's research is truly exceptional. The IPR plans to fill the data gap and find a mechanism to construct provincial accounts in the coming years.
http://www.brecorder.com/business-an...ate=2015-12-05
Former Advisor to Prime Minister, Dr Hafeez Pasha Friday said Khyber Pakhtunkhawa has done well in terms of foreign remittance, per capita income and employment as compared to other provinces and emphasised that provinces must prepare their own growth strategies on annual basis. Speaking at the launch of Institute of Policy Reforms brief on growth and provincial economics, he stated that in Punjab growth and production of crops declined while in Sindh industrial growth has slowed.
He added that KP economies have done well in terms of foreign remittances, per capita income and employment. He said time has come now that federal and provincial bureaus of statistics should undertake preparation of data and accounts on provinces. Pasha said that trouble in Karachi was causing an estimated loss of Rs 400 billion annually while serious problem of governance was manifested in poor social indicators of Punjab and Sindh provinces and KP was the only province which showed continuous increase in literacy.
He added that literacy fell from 60 percent to 58 percent. He felt that planning in Pakistan must reorient to a bottom-up approach whereby provincial development plans must aggregate into a national plan. He presented estimates of provincial GDPs for the 15-year period between 1999-2000 and 2014-15. He said that his study of provincial GDPs also deepened knowledge about drivers of growth and their geographical location.
Pasha stated that Punjab has a 54 percent share in the national economy, followed by 30 percent Sindh, 13 percent KP, and 3 percent Balochistan. Share of each province has changed in the 15 years under review.The most pronounced shift is in KP whose share has increased from 11 percent in 2000 to 13 percent in 2015, whereas the share of Balochistan declined from 3.8 to 2.9 percent. Looking at productive sectors, Punjab's share in agriculture production is 62 percent, Sindh 23 percent, and KP has a share of 10 percent. In industry, Punjab's share is 40 percent; Sindh has a share of 42 percent and KP 14 percent, he added.
He said during 2000-08 when the economy grew rapidly, Sindh was the best performing economy with high growth in large-scale industry but provincial economic growth declined during the two succeeding periods of 2008-13 and 2013-15. Punjab grew faster than other provinces during periods of slow growth and throughout these periods, the KP economy has maintained a healthy rate of growth of 5 percent or above.
Pasha added that growth in production of major crops in Punjab, which accounts for 75 percent of national value added to these crops, has declined while deteriorating law and order in Karachi coupled with power shortage has slowed industrial growth in Sindh with its effect on national growth. Since 2008, industry in Sindh has actually contracted while KP economy has done well, however, sustainability of its growth is open to question. Foreign remittances have largely driven KP growth, where 20 percent of household income comes from remittances. The corresponding figures for Punjab and Sindh are 10 percent and 3 percent. KP has acquired the characteristics of a remittance led service economy with limited indigenous production base, he added.
Balochistan has had the slowest economic growth where 'real per capita income may have actually fallen'. Insurgency seems to be the major reason for this. Agriculture, however, has been buoyant in Balochistan. Increase in provincial resources after the 7th NFC Award may have begun to have some impact on the province's economic growth rate. As per report, shifts in per capita income among provinces are profound. In 2000, Sindh had the highest per capita income among provinces. Today, it has slipped to third place with Punjab at number one. KP ranked fourth in 2000, moved to third place by 2008 and is currently second highest. Employment has moved in a similar way. Between 2000 and 2008, Sindh had the highest growth rate of jobs of 4.5 percent. Currently, KP has the highest growth rate.
With increase in per capita income in KP, inequality among provinces has fallen, especially as Sindh has lost growth momentum in recent years. Balochistan remains a concern as slow growth may have increased inequality with other provinces. Inequality in household income within each province is highest in Punjab and lowest in KP. Balochistan has the second highest inequality and Sindh is at number three. Report on 'Growth of the Provincial Economies' was prepared by Hafeez Pasha.
In his address of welcome, IPR Chairman Humayun Akhtar Khan stated that the Institute's research launched today was the first in-depth study of provincial economies in the country. He stated that increased financial and administrative powers with the provinces, since the last NFC Award and the 18th Amendment to the Constitution, meant that national growth is now an outcome of local and provincial growth. This realisation seems to have been lost. Each province must have a development and growth strategy for its economy. However, planners are at a disadvantage, as Pakistan does not prepare provincial accounts. He said that given paucity of data on sub-national economies, IPR's research is truly exceptional. The IPR plans to fill the data gap and find a mechanism to construct provincial accounts in the coming years.
http://www.brecorder.com/business-an...ate=2015-12-05
