Kamal defends govt’s GDP growth data

[Homo Sapiens]

https://www.thedailystar.net/business/news/kamal-defends-govts-gdp-growth-data-1742329

12:00 AM, May 12, 2019 / LAST MODIFIED: 12:10 AM, May 12, 2019
Kamal defends govt’s GDP growth data


Star Business Report

Finance Minister AHM Mustafa Kamal yesterday defended the government’s GDP growth data, saying the rates are based on solid numbers.

His remark came a day after the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM), a research organisation, called the recent economic growth data “puzzling”, citing that the figures are inconsistent with various indicators of the economy.

The Centre for Policy Dialogue, an eminent think-tank, had also questioned the current fiscal year’s provisional growth estimate of 8.13 percent.

All the numbers that were used to measure the economy and the annual growth are available, Kamal said.

“How I calculated the number? It is here. They can see the numbers,” he told reporters before going to a meeting with officials of the National Board of Revenue at its headquarters.


The finance minister, however, solicited constructive feedback from the think-tanks and research organisations.

“Their contributions enrich us. How do we get it right if they do not point out our mistakes? It is not that all our actions are always right and timely. They are here to correct us.”

Citing the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) recent report on the World Economic Outlook, Kamal said the organisation predicted sluggishness in the world economy until 2024.

The IMF forecasted that 20 countries would act as growth drivers during the period -- and Bangladesh is one of them, he said. The country’s contribution to global GDP growth would be 0.9 percent, which is the same as Canada, a developed nation, according to an analysis by Bloomberg.

“I have not done this. This is done by the IMF,” he said, suggesting that the research organisations do all the legwork.

Kamal also mentioned the lavish praises that Bangladesh was accorded at the Asian Development Bank’s annual conference in Fiji earlier this month. Bangladesh was termed a country that registers spectacular economic growth. “Have we convinced them?” he questioned.

Correction

Earlier on May 9 after a meeting with a World Bank team, Kamal said in a statement that Bangladesh would be among the top 20 contributors to the global GDP by 2024.

In another statement the following day, he got corrected saying that Bangladesh would be one of the 20 countries to contribute to the growth of the global economy in 2019-20.

 

[Homo Sapiens]

“I have not done this. This is done by the IMF,” he said, suggesting that the research organisations do all the legwork.

Kamal also mentioned the lavish praises that Bangladesh was accorded at the Asian Development Bank’s annual conference in Fiji earlier this month. Bangladesh was termed a country that registers spectacular economic growth. “Have we convinced them?” he questioned.

IMF, ADB, World Bank, Standard Chartered Bank all have made a pact of devil with BAL to look like Bangladesh's GDP is growing 7.0-8.0%. These institutions are desperately trying to shore up BAL govt. propaganda to troll Pakistan's economic problem and also trying to deceit and brainwash(unsuccessfully) our Japani talent @bluesky and a certain Cockroach. But in reality, Bangladesh growth is negative(-) 8 percent. If you don't believe, please study PDF comments to get the inconvenient truth.

 

[Black_cats]

IMF, ADB, World Bank, Standard Chartard Bank all have made a pact of devil with BAL to look like Bangladesh's GDP is growing 7.0-8.0%. These institutions are desperately trying to shore up BAL govt. propaganda to troll Pakistan's economic problem and also trying to deceit and brainwash(unsuccessfully) our Japani talent @bluesky and a certain Cockroach. But in reality, Bangladesh growth is negative(-) 8 percent. If you don't believe, please study PDF comments to get the inconvenient truth.

To me biggest problem of Bangladesh is corruption, inefficient bureaucracy, lacking ability to enforce law, syndication etc. If these can be tackled Bangladesh will attain much higher growth.

 

[bluesky]

IMF, ADB, World Bank, Standard Chartard Bank all have made a pact of devil with BAL to look like Bangladesh's GDP is growing 7.0-8.0%. These institutions are desperately trying to shore up BAL govt. propaganda to troll Pakistan's economic problem and also trying to deceit and brainwash(unsuccessfully) our Japani talent @bluesky and a certain Cockroach. But in reality, Bangladesh growth is negative(-) 8 percent. If you don't believe, please study PDF comments to get the inconvenient truth.

You are as usual making blunt comments without actually reading the other side of the viewpoints. POint is not really the volume of export, but the economic activities of the population in many different sectors. For example, Hawai does not export anything worth, but it has a good living standard based on tourism. So, Hawai is not a case of export but money (read wealth) pours in continuously by the tourists most of whom are mainland Americans.

But, the case in BD is quite different from Hawai. Our growth is almost completely linked to our export and remittance. The article you mentioned (another thread) implies that the growth should be almost equal to the growth in export and remittance. This is not actually true. Our export creates many other activities in the industries like carton box, polythene, plastic belt, Jhut fabric, threads etc. It also makes the transport sector (trucking, rickshaws), water launches busy.

In every step of activities,the GDP grows on.Eateries, shops get many customers. THere are many other fields that grow with the purchasing power of the population. All these activities cumulatively expand the GDP and its growth. However, in the case of BD export and remittance play a major role to initiate many other backward or forward activities.

So, I personally do not think the points mentioned by those SANEM guys may not be the exact truth.

 

[UKBengali]

IMF, ADB, World Bank, Standard Chartered Bank all have made a pact of devil with BAL to look like Bangladesh's GDP is growing 7.0-8.0%. These institutions are desperately trying to shore up BAL govt. propaganda to troll Pakistan's economic problem and also trying to deceit and brainwash(unsuccessfully) our Japani talent @bluesky and a certain Cockroach. But in reality, Bangladesh growth is negative(-) 8 percent. If you don't believe, please study PDF comments to get the inconvenient truth.

They said the same about China in the 1990s.

 

[Nilgiri]

You are as usual making blunt comments without actually reading the other side of the viewpoints. POint is not really the volume of export, but the economic activities of the population in many different sectors. For example, Hawai does not export anything worth, but it has a good living standard based on tourism. So, Hawai is not a case of export but money (read wealth) pours in continuously by the tourists most of whom are mainland Americans.

But, the case in BD is quite different from Hawai. Our growth is almost completely linked to our export and remittance. The article you mentioned (another thread) implies that the growth should be almost equal to the growth in export and remittance. This is not actually true. Our export creates many other activities in the industries like carton box, polythene, plastic belt, Jhut fabric, threads etc. It also makes the transport sector (trucking, rickshaws), water launches busy.

In every step of activities,the GDP grows on.Eateries, shops get many customers. THere are many other fields that grow with the purchasing power of the population. All these activities cumulatively expand the GDP and its growth. However, in the case of BD export and remittance play a major role to initiate many other backward or forward activities.

So, I personally do not think the points mentioned by those SANEM guys may not be the exact truth.

Just give it few more years. The inflation based growth is already hitting BD forex (stagnant), exports (miserly growth), market cap (taking a tumble) and energy consumption (stagnation). Before it was just M A taslim article and harvard study.....soon there will be more data flood of the issues.....because BAL has only so much it can stop information from.

This is problem with being GDDS country stuck on RMG mode, no real aspiration to diversify and improve....and the drawbacks of no innovation/competition catch up to you sooner than later.

An article will come out about first TVs exported to so and so....but few months later, its all quiet and media has moved onto some other "first". No follow up on sustaining anything because its a failure.

It all comes to how much you actually look at BD consumption patterns. The less you look, the more you rely on BD superficial growth figures. The more you look (like Harvard and M A Taslim and now SANEM), the more you find things do not add up. Energy and real houeshold income decline is especially telling. It will take a few more years to manifest in bad ways BAL cannot launder anymore.

 

[TopCat]

Just give it few more years. The inflation based growth is already hitting BD forex (stagnant), exports (miserly growth), market cap (taking a tumble) and energy consumption (stagnation). Before it was just M A taslim article and harvard study.....soon there will be more data flood of the issues.....because BAL has only so much it can stop information from.

This is problem with being GDDS country stuck on RMG mode, no real aspiration to diversify and improve....and the drawbacks of no innovation/competition catch up to you sooner than later.

An article will come out about first TVs exported to so and so....but few months later, its all quiet and media has moved onto some other "first". No follow up on sustaining anything because its a failure.

It all comes to how much you actually look at BD consumption patterns. The less you look, the more you rely on BD superficial growth figures. The more you look (like Harvard and M A Taslim and now SANEM), the more you find things do not add up. Energy and real houeshold income decline is especially telling. It will take a few more years to manifest in bad ways BAL cannot launder anymore.

 

[Bilal9]

IMF, ADB, World Bank, Standard Chartered Bank all have made a pact of devil with BAL to look like Bangladesh's GDP is growing 7.0-8.0%. These institutions are desperately trying to shore up BAL govt. propaganda to troll Pakistan's economic problem and also trying to deceit and brainwash(unsuccessfully) our Japani talent @bluesky and a certain Cockroach. But in reality, Bangladesh growth is negative(-) 8 percent. If you don't believe, please study PDF comments to get the inconvenient truth.

Ha ha ha classic!

 

[Nilgiri]

Yes we actually prefer to have solid debate and discussion over the issues of what GDP number even represents on ground.

Now show me the same inside BD, country which has STRONK 95% election winning results (as solid reputation of its transparency and debate culture).

Was M A Taslim, SANEM, Harvard etc...invited for discussion on any BD TV debate over the issues they brought up?

Does BD even have a professional english media channel for its affairs?...even a JV?

@bluesky

 

[TopCat]

Yes we actually prefer to have solid debate and discussion over the issues of what GDP number even represents on ground.

Now show me the same inside BD, country which has STRONK 95% election winning results (as solid reputation of its transparency and debate culture).

Was M A Taslim, SANEM, Harvard etc...invited for discussion on any BD TV debate over the issues they brought up?

Does BD even have a professional english media channel for its affairs?...even a JV?

@bluesky

None of our govt fudged data.. All data are independently verified by IMF in BD. Rather our data is conservative.
You are debating because you got caught while your pants down.
And no... English is not our official language neither we have an english channel.. Should we? Some channel do have a english bulletin for the people who does not understand bengali or foreigner residing in Bangladesh.

 

[Nilgiri]

None of our govt fudged data.. All data are independently verified by IMF in BD. Rather our data is conservative.
You are debating because you got caught while your pants down.
And no... English is not our official language neither we have an english channel.. Should we? Some channel do have a english bulletin for the people who does not understand bengali or foreigner residing in Bangladesh.

Sure sure.....you dont even understand how IMF works regarding this in first place, just blindly believe your 10% percentile corruption hellhole "95% seats won fairly" "minister" lol:

https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/Sheets/2016/07/27/15/45/Standards-for-Data-Dissemination

Notice the glaring differences between the two standards. It comes from the relevance of the country in first place. One's motive is to assist (those that are puny, backwards and over-reliant on one thing)...the other one has big boy pants already on i.e:

SDDS subscription indicates that a country meets the test of “good statistical citizenship.”

Now you tell me why you have no debate anywhere on these issues given the clear fog you operate in? I mean is there even a debate allowed on something so simple as the 95% win rate for election LOL?

After all @bluesky :

https://www.dhakatribune.com/special-supplement/2018/05/22/what-have-we-done

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, Bangladesh keeps trying to achieve first world dreams with third world policies. The reason why this is problematic, minus the obvious is that our goal is quantity not quality. For instance, we have more than 165 million people (quantity/easy slave labour) who are being marked literate based just on their ability to write their name, or when they added a “special provision” in the Child Marriage Act that will essentially allow a rapist to marry their underage survivor without her consent but just with her parents’ or a judge (let’s not even begin the conversation on women or their consent because these are too “foreign” a concept round these parts).

We have mastered the art of fudging the numbers. Scamming the system to meet our “development” goals, but to what end? In the end, the ridiculously large volume of humans living in a tiny New York apartment size country is going to spill over, either like chaos theory or like crabs in a bucket; your pick. Our “leaders” have figured it out; slaves to capitalism that’s eating the West alive right now, they’re paying workers $50 a month and pocketing the rest to buy homes in “better” countries for their children to live in.

If the national policy is to take the money and run, then there is nobody left to focus on reinvesting in the country, which is precisely why we have never returned to a post-war societal status. The real challenge is putting our money where our mouth is. For example the constitution that believes in equity, has never been taught at a primary level as a guiding principle of civil life.

(more at link) @Retired Troll @Indus Pakistan

Ring a bell?:

https://opinion.bdnews24.com/2017/12/18/where-did-the-benefits-of-economic-growth-disappear/

There is some disquiet among economists about the quality of data provided by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). No less a person than the Economic Adviser to the Prime Minister has expressed his dissatisfaction about the qualifications of the BBS staff and the quality of their work. These are very long standing problems, and yet, very little has been done to improve the quality of the services provided by BBS.

The government is perhaps more worried about the embarrassment an efficient BBS can do to its image with correct data than the harm an inefficient BBS can inflict on policy making and, the economy with incorrect data.

The current feeling of consternation originates largely from the fact that macroeconomic data, such as economic growth rate, is frequently not consistent with other data, such as credit, export and import etc. with which they are supposed to be correlated.

Significantly, the latter is not provided by BBS, but by other government organisations such as Bangladesh Bank, National Board of Revenue and Export Promotion Bureau.

Inflating the data!

(More at link)

And now SANEM pointing out more discrepancies mounting than before:

@GeraltofRivia @lonelyman @SBUS-CXK @Game.Invade @M.AsfandYar @Fledgingwings @Aung Zaya @Sugarcane @Major Sam

https://www.thedailystar.net/busine...th-asian-network-on-economic-modeling-1741114

Who is SANEM? Someone instrumentally involved with BBS data matrix in first place:

https://www.theigc.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Osmani-2017-Final-report.pdf

(pages 31 and 40)

You will only find this increase with time the more and more you hit the ceiling of current over reliance on a non-dynamic, brittle system (that is not even up for some debate in front of BD public) as I described:

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/bang...to-economic-trade.617775/page-8#post-11453823

So dont give me your Biman babu typical BS claim of "im a forced mongol descendant and proud of it" crap about "conservative" estimate and IMF "vetting" (they just give the guidelines to an LDC and hope you are credible enough to implement....which you increasingly show you are not).

There is no chance a country being "conservative" about GDP would only manage to invest this puny amount outside its borders compared to its GDP claim:

https://unctad.org/sections/dite_dir/docs/wir2018/wir18_fs_bd_en.pdf

Outward FDI stock of 362 million USD? 2 bucks per capita? Give me a break lol. Same performance as your walton "exports" in the end lol...make media article for 100 units on trial.....avoid discussing have 1000 and 10,000 orders been bulked/commited later...have they happened? Repeat, rinse, recycle and reuse this drama as needed lol.

....and then have a 0 -2 filing rate of patents at USPTO each year, junk credit rating, do about as well as sub saharan africa in science output, earn in lowest 10% percentile as immigrants in US and UK and be consistently ranked at utter bottom rung of corruption this long on top.

Then start facing energy consumption stagnancy this early too:

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/bang...rd-chartered-bank.617934/page-7#post-11450042

You have to prove things....not bray things. Capiche?

First step is to let some debate on it (on your TV)......but you won't....because you lot are fundamentally afraid about such things....its just more comfy to believe that there is both "democracy" and "95% seat win" operating at same time perfectly lol. The attitude extends for everything else....and the lesson will be proportionally harsh in the end.

 

[El Sidd]

Sure sure.....you dont even understand how IMF works regarding this in first place, just blindly believe your 10% percentile corruption hellhole "95% seats won fairly" "minister" lol:

https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/Sheets/2016/07/27/15/45/Standards-for-Data-Dissemination

Notice the glaring differences between the two standards. It comes from the relevance of the country in first place. One's motive is to assist (those that are puny, backwards and over-reliant on one thing)...the other one has big boy pants already on i.e:

SDDS subscription indicates that a country meets the test of “good statistical citizenship.”

Now you tell me why you have no debate anywhere on these issues given the clear fog you operate in? I mean is there even a debate allowed on something so simple as the 95% win rate for election LOL?

After all @bluesky :

https://www.dhakatribune.com/special-supplement/2018/05/22/what-have-we-done

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, Bangladesh keeps trying to achieve first world dreams with third world policies. The reason why this is problematic, minus the obvious is that our goal is quantity not quality. For instance, we have more than 165 million people (quantity/easy slave labour) who are being marked literate based just on their ability to write their name, or when they added a “special provision” in the Child Marriage Act that will essentially allow a rapist to marry their underage survivor without her consent but just with her parents’ or a judge (let’s not even begin the conversation on women or their consent because these are too “foreign” a concept round these parts).

We have mastered the art of fudging the numbers. Scamming the system to meet our “development” goals, but to what end? In the end, the ridiculously large volume of humans living in a tiny New York apartment size country is going to spill over, either like chaos theory or like crabs in a bucket; your pick. Our “leaders” have figured it out; slaves to capitalism that’s eating the West alive right now, they’re paying workers $50 a month and pocketing the rest to buy homes in “better” countries for their children to live in.

If the national policy is to take the money and run, then there is nobody left to focus on reinvesting in the country, which is precisely why we have never returned to a post-war societal status. The real challenge is putting our money where our mouth is. For example the constitution that believes in equity, has never been taught at a primary level as a guiding principle of civil life.

(more at link) @Retired Troll @Indus Pakistan

Ring a bell?:

https://opinion.bdnews24.com/2017/12/18/where-did-the-benefits-of-economic-growth-disappear/

There is some disquiet among economists about the quality of data provided by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). No less a person than the Economic Adviser to the Prime Minister has expressed his dissatisfaction about the qualifications of the BBS staff and the quality of their work. These are very long standing problems, and yet, very little has been done to improve the quality of the services provided by BBS.

The government is perhaps more worried about the embarrassment an efficient BBS can do to its image with correct data than the harm an inefficient BBS can inflict on policy making and, the economy with incorrect data.

The current feeling of consternation originates largely from the fact that macroeconomic data, such as economic growth rate, is frequently not consistent with other data, such as credit, export and import etc. with which they are supposed to be correlated.

Significantly, the latter is not provided by BBS, but by other government organisations such as Bangladesh Bank, National Board of Revenue and Export Promotion Bureau.

Inflating the data!

(More at link)

And now SANEM pointing out more discrepancies mounting than before:

@GeraltofRivia @lonelyman @SBUS-CXK @Game.Invade @M.AsfandYar @Fledgingwings @Aung Zaya @Sugarcane @Major Sam

https://www.thedailystar.net/busine...th-asian-network-on-economic-modeling-1741114

Who is SANEM? Someone instrumentally involved with BBS data matrix in first place:

https://www.theigc.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Osmani-2017-Final-report.pdf

(pages 31 and 40)

You will only find this increase with time the more and more you hit the ceiling of current over reliance on a non-dynamic, brittle system (that is not even up for some debate in front of BD public) as I described:

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/bang...to-economic-trade.617775/page-8#post-11453823

So dont give me your Biman babu typical BS claim of "im a forced mongol descendant and proud of it" crap about "conservative" estimate and IMF "vetting" (they just give the guidelines to an LDC and hope you are credible enough to implement....which you increasingly show you are not).

There is no chance a country being "conservative" about GDP would only manage to invest this puny amount outside its borders compared to its GDP claim:

https://unctad.org/sections/dite_dir/docs/wir2018/wir18_fs_bd_en.pdf

Outward FDI stock of 362 million USD? 2 bucks per capita? Give me a break lol. Same performance as your walton "exports" in the end lol...make media article for 100 units on trial.....avoid discussing have 1000 and 10,000 orders been bulked/commited later...have they happened? Repeat, rinse, recycle and reuse this drama as needed lol.

....and then have a 0 -2 filing rate of patents at USPTO each year, junk credit rating, do about as well as sub saharan africa in science output, earn in lowest 10% percentile as immigrants in US and UK and be consistently ranked at utter bottom rung of corruption this long on top.

Then start facing energy consumption stagnancy this early too:

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/bang...rd-chartered-bank.617934/page-7#post-11450042

You have to prove things....not bray things. Capiche?

First step is to let some debate on it (on your TV)......but you won't....because you lot are fundamentally afraid about such things....its just more comfy to believe that there is both "democracy" and "95% seat win" operating at same time perfectly lol. The attitude extends for everything else....and the lesson will be proportionally harsh in the end.

why would you assume i care?

 

[Nilgiri]

why would you assume i care?

hilsa fudging is a big deal. Just think what the poor hilsa feel! They conquered the darkness 2.5 million years ago for this??!?!

 

[El Sidd]

hilsa fudging is a big deal. Just think what the poor hilsa feel! They conquered the darkness 2.5 million years ago for this??!?!

dude i dont care lol

 

[Nilgiri]

dude i dont care lol

ok it more just for triggered reaction incoming now anyway.

Out there its more interesting, this BD vs China troll thread stuff