JF-17 Thunder Multirole Fighter [Thread 7]

[SQ8]

Why would Pakistan just "pay" and not establish it's industrial base in AAM/SAM? Once mass produced, you could field these on aircrafts as well as on land and ships........ there is a lot more that goes into SAM systems so it would create a whole new industry base as well.

@araz @Chak Bamu ; Your input on the scenario above for Pak to build it's own SAMS derived from SD-10 and also produce SD-10 ER locally?

Why can’t Pakistan just buy mass produced SD-10s from China? What prevents it?

What is the lot more going into SAM systems that Pakistan cannot procure en masse instead of dedicating limited capital and resources into needing to do it indigenous?

 

[araz]

I am proposing buying transports instead of J-10s.

Personally I think that would be wasteful. There is a ground attack version of the C130 but do we really need that for a war with India?. You know as well as I do that it will be a massacre on account of lack of mobility. The J10 although not ideal would at least be able to defend themselves in a war theatre. PAF needed 36 more 16/bl.15s plus another 18 bl. 52s to make up the inventory but that was not to be. The next best option is J10 as theJ15/16s remain unavailable
A

 

[araz]

Why can’t Pakistan just buy mass produced SD-10s from China? What prevents it?

What is the lot more going into SAM systems that Pakistan cannot procure en masse instead of dedicating limited capital and resources into needing to do it indigenous?

I think a half way house maybe plausible. Ithink we do need to venture into this field as A2A is not the only sphere in which we will require inventory. There are SAMs and ship based defence to be catered for. Some commonality will give one enough numbers to make it worth our while. I also think familiarity with building allows people to tinker and improve things which might lead to overall better product without breaking the bank. So my line of thinking would be to get TOT/help for local production and build on the model.
A

Well the first thing you need to do is look at their inventory and or orders (Rafales,Eurofighters, and F15QAs)
I cannot see where the JF17 will fit.
I think Qatar might buy a few aircraft as Political gesture. (A bit like the Mushak when they bought a PC21 "Training system")

Agreed but for some cursory interest they have certainly made 2-3 trips to PAC. Surely that is unusual for sursory look-see.
A

Well the first thing you need to do is look at their inventory and or orders (Rafales,Eurofighters, and F15QAs)
I cannot see where the JF17 will fit.
I think Qatar might buy a few aircraft as Political gesture. (A bit like the Mushak when they bought a PC21 "Training system")

Agreed but for some cursory interest they have certainly made 2-3 trips to PAC. Surely that is unusual for sursory look-see. What I believe is they might be interested in Bs for training their AF Under PAF supervision. It removes a lot of complexities
A

 

[Dazzler]

Pakistan will not spend a dime on a capability it can purchase.

We r working on own bvr for 6 years. Dig it.

 

[SQ8]

I think a half way house maybe plausible. Ithink we do need to venture into this field as A2A is not the only sphere in which we will require inventory. There are SAMs and ship based defence to be catered for. Some commonality will give one enough numbers to make it worth our while. I also think familiarity with building allows people to tinker and improve things which might lead to overall better product without breaking the bank. So my line of thinking would be to get TOT/help for local production and build on the model.
A

Agreed but for some cursory interest they have certainly made 2-3 trips to PAC. Surely that is unusual for sursory look-see.
A

Agreed but for some cursory interest they have certainly made 2-3 trips to PAC. Surely that is unusual for sursory look-see. What I believe is they might be interested in Bs for training their AF Under PAF supervision. It removes a lot of complexities
A

Which we do for the more restrictive systems(AShMs and SSMs) that cannot circumvent MTCR. But when it comes to wanting to set up a factory with its equipment and expertise along with operating costs for a missile PAF can purchase as many as Pakistan wants of at any time it doesn’t make sense.

Once Pakistan decides it wants a AAM program it can undertake the effort(probably 10 years from today for a new one and 2 years for CKD type)

We r working on own bvr for 6 years. Dig it.

Yes and it’s probably another 4 years before it makes an impact. Look how long the Indians struggled with the Astra despite having SMEs come on contract from 5 different countries no less.

 

[Muhammad Saftain Anjum]

Which we do for the more restrictive systems(AShMs and SSMs) that cannot circumvent MTCR. But when it comes to wanting to set up a factory with its equipment and expertise along with operating costs for a missile PAF can purchase as many as Pakistan wants of at any time it doesn’t make sense.

Once Pakistan decides it wants a AAM program it can undertake the effort(probably 10 years from today for a new one and 2 years for CKD type)

Yes and it’s probably another 4 years before it makes an impact. Look how long the Indians struggled with the Astra despite having SMEs come on contract from 5 different countries no less.

Let them take time.we can wait.
Someone here was saying that Fatah 1 uses a dual pulse motor and we are working on Ramjet Supersonic missile also so we can redirect these technologies for A2A missile.
I think AWC can develop it.just give them time and funds.

 

[DJ_Viper]

Why can’t Pakistan just buy mass produced SD-10s from China? What prevents it?

What is the lot more going into SAM systems that Pakistan cannot procure en masse instead of dedicating limited capital and resources into needing to do it indigenous?

How about we do some maths.....since you seem to know Pakistan's direction in this matter. Let's say, cost of 1000 missiles? What you are missing is the local industry. That can turn the investment into a business. Just like the JFT. You have a main utilizer of further weapons, it makes perfect sense to advance that industry base.

Secondly, ten years from now, if China starts to have issues with you guys for some unknown X event, what would you do then? This was the second and most critical point, self reliance! And combine the industry, self reliance, AND income, I don't see why this venture shouldn't be considered.

Lastly, a SAM system isn't just a Missile system like it is in the aircraft, the dedicated compute power is tremendous across an area, you have search and track radar, target designator and fire control radars and all the sensors have to be "fused" together to make this system work.

 

[PakFactor]

How about we do some maths.....since you seem to know Pakistan's direction in this matter. Let's say, cost of 1000 missiles? What you are missing is the local industry. That can turn the investment into a business. Just like the JFT. You have a main utilizer of further weapons, it makes perfect sense to advance that industry base.

Secondly, ten years from now, if China starts to have issues with you guys for some unknown X event, what would you do then? This was the second and most critical point, self reliance! And combine the industry, self reliance, AND income, I don't see why this venture shouldn't be considered.

Lastly, a SAM system isn't just a Missile system like it is in the aircraft, the dedicated compute power is tremendous across an area, you have search and track radar, target designator and fire control radars and all the sensors have to be "fused" together to make this system work.

I'm in agreement as no friendship's can last forever as interests change and the power pendulum moves constantly.

We have a small drone industry that's growing that can be put to the test in a Joint Venture between Public & Private that can act as a feeder program for young engineers, scientists to be recruited, essentially use an existing base to create a subsidiary that can spin of on its own feet later on.

 

[SQ8]

How about we do some maths.....since you seem to know Pakistan's direction in this matter. Let's say, cost of 1000 missiles? What you are missing is the local industry. That can turn the investment into a business. Just like the JFT. You have a main utilizer of further weapons, it makes perfect sense to advance that industry base.

Secondly, ten years from now, if China starts to have issues with you guys for some unknown X event, what would you do then? This was the second and most critical point, self reliance! And combine the industry, self reliance, AND income, I don't see why this venture shouldn't be considered.

Lastly, a SAM system isn't just a Missile system like it is in the aircraft, the dedicated compute power is tremendous across an area, you have search and track radar, target designator and fire control radars and all the sensors have to be "fused" together to make this system work.

Ok
Lets do maths then since you cannot see why this venture cannot be considered(because you have maths):

What is the investment needed to setup? Im sure you know these figures please put them in there

Local assembly line
Capital costs:
Financing
- cost of assembly
- installation
depreciation

Operating costs/YR
- components
- labor
- overheads

Amortized costs to a SD-10 missile ?

As a reference the AIM-120C-5 to which the SD-10 is analogous to cost Pakistan $850k per missile.
The SD-10 costs about 60% of it.



Let me give an example to start
Japan license produces the PAC-3 and SM-3 missiles - total of $8 billion cost in setting up each factory(and rebuild line) and around 500 missiles that were required for JSDF and JMSDF with additional changes for which Raytheon’s production line was not capable of supporting.

Pakistan has 750 SD-10s already in stock with a shelf life good for another 7-10 years that represent $375 million in investment and are sufficient for its Jf-17 fleet.

Yet, you are proposing creating a build line(for which you will be providing the math) and then “buying” 1000 additional missiles which even if costing lower($350k is an example) will be used where? In an all out conflict the aircraft will disappear before the missiles.

Now, the SD-10 was pitched to Pakistan as a SAM a few years ago and rejected so why would this hypothetical version be acceptable now - and which seems to bolster the number you are proposing?

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Ok
Lets do maths then since you cannot see why this venture cannot be considered(because you have maths):

What is the investment needed to setup? Im sure you know these figures please put them in there

Local assembly line
Capital costs:
Financing
- cost of assembly
- installation
depreciation

Operating costs/YR
- components
- labor
- overheads

Amortized costs to a SD-10 missile ?

As a reference the AIM-120C-5 to which the SD-10 is analogous to cost Pakistan $850k per missile.
The SD-10 costs about 60% of it.



Let me give an example to start
Japan license produces the PAC-3 and SM-3 missiles - total of $8 billion cost in setting up each factory(and rebuild line) and around 500 missiles that were required for JSDF and JMSDF with additional changes for which Raytheon’s production line was not capable of supporting.

Pakistan has 750 SD-10s already in stock with a shelf life good for another 7-10 years that represent $375 million in investment and are sufficient for its Jf-17 fleet.

Yet, you are proposing creating a build line(for which you will be providing the math) and then “buying” 1000 additional missiles which even if costing lower($350k is an example) will be used where? In an all out conflict the aircraft will disappear before the missiles.

Now, the SD-10 was pitched to Pakistan as a SAM a few years ago and rejected so why would this hypothetical version be acceptable now - and which seems to bolster the number you are proposing?

The Chinese, Americans, Europeans, etc have the benefit of always asking, "what can our industry make?" before deciding on an indigenous defence program. So, even if the costs are higher to develop indigenously, they get a 90-99% stimulus effect (i.e., the money returns to their domestic economy) that can create a long-term payoff. Unfortunately, Pakistan doesn't have such a base, so any talk of indigenous investment is either going to result in CKD-type situations or investing in the underlying industry.

The underlying industry should, ideally, be a parallel investment. Unfortunately, we don't have that type of continuity in Pakistan, much less institutional accountability to make sure we're spending the money correctly. If we just had $1b a year for core input (e.g., gas turbine, rocket motor, semiconductor, etc) development over the last 20 years, it'd be a very different story today. Sure, not earth-shattering, but not hopeless either. Sadly, between corruption on one hand and fighting terrorists on the other, where were we going to get $1b a year?

 

[Cookie Monster]

The Chinese, Americans, Europeans, etc have the benefit of always asking, "what can our industry make?" before deciding on an indigenous defence program. So, even if the costs are higher to develop indigenously, they get a 90-99% stimulus effect (i.e., the money returns to their domestic economy) that can create a long-term payoff. Unfortunately, Pakistan doesn't have such a base, so any talk of indigenous investment is either going to result in CKD-type situations or investing in the underlying industry.

The underlying industry should, ideally, be a parallel investment. Unfortunately, we don't have that type of continuity in Pakistan, much less institutional accountability to make sure we're spending the money correctly. If we just had $1b a year for core input (e.g., gas turbine, rocket motor, semiconductor, etc) development over the last 20 years, it'd be a very different story today. Sure, not earth-shattering, but not hopeless either. Sadly, between corruption on one hand and fighting terrorists on the other, where were we going to get $1b a year?

IMO a perfect fit for Pak(considering the limitations) are JVs with other countries...but not only limiting it to just state institutions...instead having both state institutions and private sector involved. Many opportunities have already been missed(like with Denel of South Africa)...but there will be many more to come.
...what Pakistan will contribute? Even if not much in the way of technical expertise...at least in terms of money, risk sharing, and economies of scale...which would be plenty for countries like South Africa, Ukraine, Turkey, Indonesia, Brazil, and South Korea. This will slowly build Pakistan's own capabilities...which will pay dividends as many of the foundational things learned can be applied in other fields. It will also ensure Pak gets a piece of pie from every export order of that product...and best of all...with every next JV Pak will then have more to offer.

 

[CriticalThought]

Personally I think that would be wasteful. There is a ground attack version of the C130 but do we really need that for a war with India?. You know as well as I do that it will be a massacre on account of lack of mobility. The J10 although not ideal would at least be able to defend themselves in a war theatre. PAF needed 36 more 16/bl.15s plus another 18 bl. 52s to make up the inventory but that was not to be. The next best option is J10 as theJ15/16s remain unavailable
A

I have already clearly given a response to this concern. Please read my previous posts.

 

[Thorough Pro]

We already have the basic infrastructure for missile manufacturing, the only thing lacking is the optical sensors and algorithms to calculate the trajectory to hit an agile aerial target.

Which we do for the more restrictive systems(AShMs and SSMs) that cannot circumvent MTCR. But when it comes to wanting to set up a factory with its equipment and expertise along with operating costs for a missile PAF can purchase as many as Pakistan wants of at any time it doesn’t make sense.

Once Pakistan decides it wants a AAM program it can undertake the effort(probably 10 years from today for a new one and 2 years for CKD type)

Yes and it’s probably another 4 years before it makes an impact. Look how long the Indians struggled with the Astra despite having SMEs come on contract from 5 different countries no less.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

IMO a perfect fit for Pak(considering the limitations) are JVs with other countries...but not only limiting it to just state institutions...instead having both state institutions and private sector involved. Many opportunities have already been missed(like with Denel of South Africa)...but there will be many more to come.
...what Pakistan will contribute? Even if not much in the way of technical expertise...at least in terms of money, risk sharing, and economies of scale...which would be plenty for countries like South Africa, Ukraine, Turkey, Indonesia, Brazil, and South Korea. This will slowly build Pakistan's own capabilities...which will pay dividends as many of the foundational things learned can be applied in other fields. It will also ensure Pak gets a piece of pie from every export order of that product...and best of all...with every next JV Pak will then have more to offer.

Ultimately, we have to start somewhere. In a genuine joint-venture, we'll start out with grunt work and low-value inputs. Fine. The benefit is that the grunt work can still result in a stimulus to the local economy and encourage investment in R&D both from the state and the private sector. The sustained investment in R&D will eventually result in more valuable outputs -- and we will get better with time. That output will be our ticket to more equitable partnerships and higher-value work -- it'll cascade from there and snowball.

Unfortunately, this starting trigger isn't there in Pakistan. It simply isn't. I think someone has to literally beat our people and then beg them and then beat them again and marry a daughter or son and slaughter a cow and feed a village and send the grandchild to the ISSB to get things to move.

 

[DJ_Viper]

Ok
Lets do maths then since you cannot see why this venture cannot be considered(because you have maths):

What is the investment needed to setup? Im sure you know these figures please put them in there

Local assembly line
Capital costs:
Financing
- cost of assembly
- installation
depreciation

Operating costs/YR
- components
- labor
- overheads

Amortized costs to a SD-10 missile ?

As a reference the AIM-120C-5 to which the SD-10 is analogous to cost Pakistan $850k per missile.
The SD-10 costs about 60% of it.
Let me give an example to start
Japan license produces the PAC-3 and SM-3 missiles - total of $8 billion cost in setting up each factory(and rebuild line) and around 500 missiles that were required for JSDF and JMSDF with additional changes for which Raytheon’s production line was not capable of supporting.
Pakistan has 750 SD-10s already in stock with a shelf life good for another 7-10 years that represent $375 million in investment and are sufficient for its Jf-17 fleet.
Yet, you are proposing creating a build line(for which you will be providing the math) and then “buying” 1000 additional missiles which even if costing lower($350k is an example) will be used where? In an all out conflict the aircraft will disappear before the missiles.

Now, the SD-10 was pitched to Pakistan as a SAM a few years ago and rejected so why would this hypothetical version be acceptable now - and which seems to bolster the number you are proposing?

Never mind! You missed the entire point. I'd suggest you go back and re-read my posts a couple of times and then come back and respond.