That would be a case of PAF caught napping. We are sick and tired of hearing that PAF is 'satisfied' with JFT. But this 'satisfaction' was never clearly defined. Satisfaction in terms of JFT's envisioned role or satisfaction in terms of JFT's ability to deal with contemporary and evolving threats? Assuming that latter is true is a leap of faith we'd have to take.
Well, let's say they get the J-10C, how much of an improvement would it offer over the JF-17 B3? I mean, let's analyze this in granular terms. Will the radar offer 100% more range and targeting? Is the PL-15 tied to exclusively the J-10C? I don't think it's a "yes" on either scenario, so I can see why the PAF trusts the B3 and/or isn't interested in the J-10CE.
As for other options, well here's the rundown.
1. Su-35: the OEM isn't talking about customization, and a purchase from Russia is a sanction call via CAATSA.
2: Typhoon T3 costs $225 m all-in per plane, and it needs the approval of all consortium members, and the Meteor needs France's approval.
3. Rafale: France probably won't sell.
2 out of 3 options are clearly tied to our weak economic situation, which I can't blame the PAF for. It might be able to buy the J-10CE on a loan from China (as PN is doing for ships), but we're not 100% convinced that's enough of an added difference maker for a totally new jet.
While corruption in the PAF can be a factor, just as it stops certain programs, it can also drive others. If we had Typhoon contract on the cards and the right folks were to make a killing off it, it'd go through. Heck, if we wanted the cheapest possible Meteor truck with a good 150-200 km range radar, we can push for the Gripen E/F (and take a risk on US engines and all). I'm sure Saab will line someone's pockets and make it happen if we had the means to buy the jets...
But even that isn't happening... So, clearly, Pak lacks the fiscal means to make it happen. It's as simple as that IMHO... As it stands, anyone with money and access will import... I don't think we can make an argument of the PAF being the sole entity to go against human nature and common sense to do corruption by going in-house. It's the other way around Lol.