Japan seeks defence ties with Asean

[Zero_wing]

Russian-VN relation does not exist in tactical level. only exist in Commercial Level.
The distance (The physical distance not referring to anything) is too far and have too many country in between. It's going to take time to mobilise anything in case Vietnam in trouble. Vietnam should not depend on russia to jump to their defence. Nor they should count Russia as their politic chips of bargining power. Russia is a business man, they are there to please everybody.

However, vietnam need Russia for their economic development. This would probably be the true relationship lies.



Only fools would want war. This much i can tell you.



The things is, if China yank japan out of US hand. (it would be EXTREMELY HARD to do) Japan will simply took US places instead of going friendly with China. Nor would China go buddy-buddy with Japanese at the first flight anyway.

The South Korean and Japan are never going to merge. Did once before, it does not ended well. The only glue that hold both together are US.

In your case, you kick US out of Asia. but instead you have 2 country to stand out and take it place. You'd rather go back to dealing with good old USA because you don't really know what South Korea and Japan are capable of. China would see a strong Japan plus a Strong Korea is more than a threat in Asia than they see US as a threat in Asia, simply because US is in North America, 5000 miles away where Japan and South Korea are doorstep away form China. Chinese polituro have to be crazy to want to see a country closer to him get stronger......



relax dude....

I just want to ask, is it disrespectful to call (not officially address ) Philippine President by his last name.

In America or Australia, we refer to our leader by surname and first name specifically. Like just Obama or just Julia. So if i say Aquino alone is consider disrespectful in Phillipine??

NO i mean its ok too here but the way he posted is disrespectful showing the lack of humanity and arrogance of this people

 

[zxmint]

Bold part: why not ?? VN have strong community in Ukraine and in Russia, it will help VN to improve VN-Russia relationship. beside that: Russia also want a military base in Cam Ranh-VN. So, our relationship can reach to tactical level like before 1990.

Just bcz we don't want both US-China too worry abt our relationship like before 1990 so, you both will collide to attack VN again, that's why, we try in hide our special relationship in secret, that's all.

Neither China nor US wants to attack you now. In the long run, a communist Viet government is good for China and Americans have no reason to repeat a war which they have already failed once when they themselves were much stronger than present.

 

[kalu_miah]

The things is, if China yank japan out of US hand. (it would be EXTREMELY HARD to do) Japan will simply took US places instead of going friendly with China. Nor would China go buddy-buddy with Japanese at the first flight anyway.

The South Korean and Japan are never going to merge. Did once before, it does not ended well. The only glue that hold both together are US.

In your case, you kick US out of Asia. but instead you have 2 country to stand out and take it place. You'd rather go back to dealing with good old USA because you don't really know what South Korea and Japan are capable of. China would see a strong Japan plus a Strong Korea is more than a threat in Asia than they see US as a threat in Asia, simply because US is in North America, 5000 miles away where Japan and South Korea are doorstep away form China. Chinese polituro have to be crazy to want to see a country closer to him get stronger......

Japan will never become a vassal state of China, if that is what you mean, the way it became an occupied nation by the US, after its defeat in WW II and remained dependent on the US for its security needs. You have to admit this is a very unnatural situation in the first place and must change to bring back more sovereignty and independence for Japan. The world has changed since the end of WW II and the cold war era. Change is the only constant in geopolitics.

Having US bases in Japan and South Korea is problematic for many reasons. These bases are not just presence of US troops, missile and air bases, they are also creating dynamics within politics of these two countries that may not be in the long term interest of these two countries. Both Japanese and South Koreans are quite aware of the negative effects of the presence of these bases and are looking for ways to remove these bases after they find alternative ways to ensure their security needs without US presence, as far as I know.

China, as it rises economically and militarily, is also getting increasingly uncomfortable about these bases. We cannot blame the Chinese, the US did not like Russia putting missile bases in Cuba. The situation is not analogous, but the distance is about the same. You get the point. So China also sees that removal of these bases as a national geo-strategic goal.

So here we see that the goals of the three countries population match, all of them eventually want removal of these US bases. But the stumbling block is how Japanese and South Korea can ensure their security against the threat of a rising China.

What I argue is that a rising and more developed ASEAN presents an opportunity for these 3 East Asian powers to creatively use ASEAN to reduce the need for the US presence. Once ASEAN is fully developed and integrated in a partnership with these 3 East Asian countries, then the US presence may become irrelevant.

Question is why should China allow a hostile alliance such as an ASEAN+2 (Japan and SoKo) form around its own Southern and eastern borders. The answer is that it does not have to be a hostile alliance, it can be a friendly alliance (Frenemy if you will), which may become a bulwark against any possible Chinese aggression, but will ally with China on the global scene under the SCO umbrella, just like Russia and former Soviet states do in SCO.

I think it is also in US interest, if local countries can solve their problems locally and it does not have to worry about protecting far away ally's, when they have their hands full with NATO and other obligations in South America, Mid-east and Africa.

I call this a Unite and Empower paradigm following New Regionalism Approach, rather than the old divide and rule paradigm. I describe it in detail here:
http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/164048-kalu_miahs-new-world-order-road-map-future.html

By unification, I actually meant Korean unification, through a peaceful Sunshine policy, pioneered by Kim Dae Jung:
Sunshine Policy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I think you have a lot of experience in these countries. I have some experience with Koreans and Korea as well. Koreans detest the Japanese occupation of 35 years. It was worse than the centuries long existence they had as a Vassal state of the Chinese empires since Silla joined hand with Tang to defeat Beakje and Goguryeo. So there is no question of the Koreans unifying with the Japanese, but I believe they will not mind to partner with Japan in a ASEAN+2 and work with Chinese to integrate ASEAN and make it into a developed region. As it is there is already a lot of Korean and Japanese investments in these countries (ASEAN). Chinese investments have also started to flow in recent years.

The big question is whether Chinese polit buro will see the merit in such an approach, or they will consider it too risky. As for your comment that "Chinese polituro have to be crazy to want to see a country closer to him get stronger......", both Japan and South Korea are already developed countries and the clock cannot be turned backwards. Its only a matter of time that they will grow their own defense muscle, once they move away from US dependence. So Chinese politburo may not have a choice on this matter, rather they would have to seek ways to find the most advantageous position for China in this affair, with cooperation rather than confrontation, so eventually Japan and a unified Korea and ASEAN+2 moves towards SCO and away from US dependence.

 

[NiceGuy]

Neither China nor US wants to attack you now. In the long run, a communist Viet government is good for China and Americans have no reason to repeat a war which they have already failed once when they themselves were much stronger than present.

You've just came to Jame shoal to lay claim to ur U-shaped. Even Malaysia-Indonesia also feel worry abt ur ambition now.All ASEAN nations is very firendly, but it seems like China like to see all of us as bully targets

For US, its so-called "Democracy" is just some kind of Mongol's 'No mercy' policy. They will try to make 'Jasmine revolt' happen in other nations to create a so called "Civil war" like in Myanmar. It's so dangerous to security and stability of ASEAN region.

 

[zxmint]

You've just came to Jame shoal to lay claim to ur U-shaped. Even Malaysia-Indonesia also feel worry abt ur ambition now.All ASEAN nations is very firendly, but it seems like China like to see all of us as bully targets

I don't know whether your only purpose here is finding sth to quarrel with others. Nobody else can judge which side is right in a territory dispute. Everyone knows that distance dose not mean anything, so could you find any other topics?

 

[zxmint]

Japan will never become a vassal state of China, if that is what you mean, the way it became an occupied nation by the US, after its defeat in WW II and remained dependent on the US for its security needs. You have to admit this is a very unnatural situation in the first place and must change to bring back more sovereignty and independence for Japan. The world has changed since the end of WW II and the cold war era. Change is the only constant in geopolitics.

Having US bases in Japan and South Korea is problematic for many reasons. These bases are not just presence of US troops, missile and air bases, they are also creating dynamics within politics of these two countries that may not be in the long term interest of these two countries. Both Japanese and South Koreans are quite aware of the negative effects of the presence of these bases and are looking for ways to remove these bases after they find alternative ways to ensure their security needs without US presence, as far as I know.

China, as it rises economically and militarily, is also getting increasingly uncomfortable about these bases. We cannot blame the Chinese, the US did not like Russia putting missile bases in Cuba. The situation is not analogous, but the distance is about the same. You get the point. So China also sees that removal of these bases as a national geo-strategic goal.

So here we see that the goals of the three countries population match, all of them eventually want removal of these US bases. But the stumbling block is how Japanese and South Korea can ensure their security against the threat of a rising China.

What I argue is that a rising and more developed ASEAN presents an opportunity for these 3 East Asian powers to creatively use ASEAN to reduce the need for the US presence. Once ASEAN is fully developed and integrated in a partnership with these 3 East Asian countries, then the US presence may become irrelevant.

Question is why should China allow a hostile alliance such as an ASEAN+2 (Japan and SoKo) form around its own Southern and eastern borders. The answer is that it does not have to be a hostile alliance, it can be a friendly alliance (Frenemy if you will), which may become a bulwark against any possible Chinese aggression, but will ally with China on the global scene under the SCO umbrella, just like Russia and former Soviet states do in SCO.

I think it is also in US interest, if local countries can solve their problems locally and it does not have to worry about protecting far away ally's, when they have their hands full with NATO and other obligations in South America, Mid-east and Africa.

I call this a Unite and Empower paradigm following New Regionalism Approach, rather than the old divide and rule paradigm. I describe it in detail here:
http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/164048-kalu_miahs-new-world-order-road-map-future.html

By unification, I actually meant Korean unification, through a peaceful Sunshine policy, pioneered by Kim Dae Jung:
Sunshine Policy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I think you have a lot of experience in these countries. I have some experience with Koreans and Korea as well. Koreans detest the Japanese occupation of 35 years. It was worse than the centuries long existence they had as a Vassal state of the Chinese empires since Silla joined hand with Tang to defeat Beakje and Goguryeo. So there is no question of the Koreans unifying with the Japanese, but I believe they will not mind to partner with Japan in a ASEAN+2 and work with Chinese to integrate ASEAN and make it into a developed region. As it is there is already a lot of Korean and Japanese investments in these countries (ASEAN). Chinese investments have also started to flow in recent years.

The big question is whether Chinese polit buro will see the merit in such an approach, or they will consider it too risky. As for your comment that "Chinese polituro have to be crazy to want to see a country closer to him get stronger......", both Japan and South Korea are already developed countries and the clock cannot be turned backwards. Its only a matter of time that they will grow their own defense muscle, once they move away from US dependence. So Chinese politburo may not have a choice on this matter, rather they would have to seek ways to find the most advantageous position for China in this affair, with cooperation rather than confrontation, so eventually Japan and a unified Korea and ASEAN+2 moves towards SCO and away from US dependence.

China will never worry about South Korea or even Japan to be honest. Their limited size and population decides that they can never become real threats to a waken up China. In the long run, only Indians could possibly challenge China in this area, but they have to make their government more efficient at first. Although there are some people in China like to laugh at India, I think that is just somehow shortsighted. We ourselves were laughed at by others a few decades ago.

 

[NiceGuy]

I don't know whether your only purpose here is finding sth to quarrel with others. Nobody else can judge which side is right in a territory dispute. Everyone knows that distance dose not mean anything, so could you find any other topics?

Jame shoal is too far from China, and China is just a big but weak country. VN control the largest and the most important in SCS(east sea). Ur hostile to ASEAN region only lead urself to failure.

China's ambition is just an excuse for VN to expand our power and having more friends like Japan-Malaysia which supporting China-Pol Pot in 1979 wars.

 

[zxmint]

Jame shoal is too far from China, and China is just a big but weak country. VN control the largest and the most important in SCS(east sea). Ur hostile to ASEAN region only lead urself to failure.

China's ambition is just an excuse for VN to expand our power and having more friends like Japan-Malaysia which supporting China-Pol Pot in 1979 wars.

......disaster for this forum.

 

[jhungary]

Japan will never become a vassal state of China, if that is what you mean, the way it became an occupied nation by the US, after its defeat in WW II and remained dependent on the US for its security needs. You have to admit this is a very unnatural situation in the first place and must change to bring back more sovereignty and independence for Japan. The world has changed since the end of WW II and the cold war era. Change is the only constant in geopolitics.

Having US bases in Japan and South Korea is problematic for many reasons. These bases are not just presence of US troops, missile and air bases, they are also creating dynamics within politics of these two countries that may not be in the long term interest of these two countries. Both Japanese and South Koreans are quite aware of the negative effects of the presence of these bases and are looking for ways to remove these bases after they find alternative ways to ensure their security needs without US presence, as far as I know.

China, as it rises economically and militarily, is also getting increasingly uncomfortable about these bases. We cannot blame the Chinese, the US did not like Russia putting missile bases in Cuba. The situation is not analogous, but the distance is about the same. You get the point. So China also sees that removal of these bases as a national geo-strategic goal.

So here we see that the goals of the three countries population match, all of them eventually want removal of these US bases. But the stumbling block is how Japanese and South Korea can ensure their security against the threat of a rising China.

What I argue is that a rising and more developed ASEAN presents an opportunity for these 3 East Asian powers to creatively use ASEAN to reduce the need for the US presence. Once ASEAN is fully developed and integrated in a partnership with these 3 East Asian countries, then the US presence may become irrelevant.

Question is why should China allow a hostile alliance such as an ASEAN+2 (Japan and SoKo) form around its own Southern and eastern borders. The answer is that it does not have to be a hostile alliance, it can be a friendly alliance (Frenemy if you will), which may become a bulwark against any possible Chinese aggression, but will ally with China on the global scene under the SCO umbrella, just like Russia and former Soviet states do in SCO.

I think it is also in US interest, if local countries can solve their problems locally and it does not have to worry about protecting far away ally's, when they have their hands full with NATO and other obligations in South America, Mid-east and Africa.

I call this a Unite and Empower paradigm following New Regionalism Approach, rather than the old divide and rule paradigm. I describe it in detail here:
http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/164048-kalu_miahs-new-world-order-road-map-future.html

By unification, I actually meant Korean unification, through a peaceful Sunshine policy, pioneered by Kim Dae Jung:
Sunshine Policy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I think you have a lot of experience in these countries. I have some experience with Koreans and Korea as well. Koreans detest the Japanese occupation of 35 years. It was worse than the centuries long existence they had as a Vassal state of the Chinese empires since Silla joined hand with Tang to defeat Beakje and Goguryeo. So there is no question of the Koreans unifying with the Japanese, but I believe they will not mind to partner with Japan in a ASEAN+2 and work with Chinese to integrate ASEAN and make it into a developed region. As it is there is already a lot of Korean and Japanese investments in these countries (ASEAN). Chinese investments have also started to flow in recent years.

The big question is whether Chinese polit buro will see the merit in such an approach, or they will consider it too risky. As for your comment that "Chinese polituro have to be crazy to want to see a country closer to him get stronger......", both Japan and South Korea are already developed countries and the clock cannot be turned backwards. Its only a matter of time that they will grow their own defense muscle, once they move away from US dependence. So Chinese politburo may not have a choice on this matter, rather they would have to seek ways to find the most advantageous position for China in this affair, with cooperation rather than confrontation, so eventually Japan and a unified Korea and ASEAN+2 moves towards SCO and away from US dependence.

First of all, you have a good assumption here.

But for your asumption to work, it goes beyond the scope of just Japan + SK. But also all the rest of the ASEAN.
As i have explained before, to have ASEAN work, ASEAN needed to be non-biased neutral organisation. If China, Japan, and SK joined the ASEAN row. There will be a problem of who will be the leader of ASEAN. Much like today NATO with US, UK, France and Germany wanting to be a top dog of NATO.

Why? If you stay only a co-op organisation like today, the power of ASEAN is relatively small. Where the biggest power of ASEAN is Indonesia at this moment. Which is not much of an influence in International Politic. When they stay small enough but not deter enough, that would be the real value of a Neutral organisation.

However, the notion of ASEAN + 2 (Japan + SK) or even ASEAN + 3 (China + Japan + SK) will shift the balance to Either China, Japan and SK. Either one of those states already have the combine effect on the whole current ASEAN can offer. Thus expanding the Union and with more power, you can't stop people from thinking steering ASEAN into their own way. If it's ASEAN + 2, then China will put further isolation on China and they will more and more going away from ASEAN. With ASEAN + 3, China, Japan and SK would most definitely want to steer the whole organisation into their own Camp.

You are looking at a lock with 2 duplicated keyshole and you have 3 different set of keys. Insert either one of them will satisify the agreement, but insert more than 2 will upset the situation and eitherway, you are looking at a distanted China and a Japan/SK Leadership fight, or simply a 3 ways ASEAN Leadership fight between China, Japan and Korea.

In Economic term, no doubt ASEAN + 2 or ASEAN + 3 will benefit the whole region, but in security term, they do not do any bit to the currently shattered sitatuation.

It's nearly impossible to remove US from the equation eithe presently or even in a short term. US act not just as a counterbalance to China, but it also represent all the uncertainty in the region. You have listed every short coming with US Troop stationed in the Asian Pacific region. But what you fail to see is 2 things. A.) Every country work only on their own behalf. B.) You failed to notice the good things US has done to stablise the region.

Every country plan their policy for themselve. Hence your true globalisation idea will not happens or will only happen with 1 sitaution, that is some military strong man took over the world forcfully. You cannot assume an alliance form without any personal and national sacrifice and to almost 99.9 of the country, those sacrifice are not acceptable on their own. Country form a union is not because they have a common background, it's because they have a common enemy.This world will always at constant balance and counter balance mode. No matter how you see it. It's not wise to assume any country will lay down their term and join a global union unconditionally.

With the US counterbalance in Asia, we see a lot of conlict did not develope or become mature in the first place. Yes, US make a lot of war in Asia, but US on the other hand also prevented many more needless war in Asia. It prevent Korea-Japan from going to war with Dokdo Dispute. It prevent the Mainland China recapture Taiwan by force. It prevent Vietnam and Thailand from going in an all out war. It basically the pillar on the SCS and malacca strait. Without the US, war would have broken out on those field a long time ago already.

Until there is another US to pick up the slack, or either Japan and SK grow as strong as US in the current Asian Present. The US bases in those places are not going to go away. Fact is, they may despise it. They may hate it, but they needed it.

 

[ViXuyen]

Yawn, you can't rely on anyone for your own national security; that's why we have spent billions buying arms and continue to do so. Look at the Phillipines for relying on a piece of paper called "treaty" with the U.S; they end up losing a shoal to China.

 

[mahatir]

As expected..ASEAN countries are forming defence cluster and they day is not far when this cluster will dump their neutral position and will start working in tandem with USA..warmongering of some countries will doom us all..

Actually we will unite to stop American aggression from ******* up our peaceful neighbourhood , enough what America has done in the middle east

 

[RangerPK]

Oh great stirring up war in Far East Asia now?