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Corporate Japan’s Best Chance for Survival: Abroad

Japanese companies have become adept at expanding into foreign markets over the last twenty years as the country’s economy has stagnated and the population now begins to contract. These companies are beginning to adapt their strategies to meet the demands of their foreign markets while confronting the realities of their domestic market. Several recent examples highlight how Japanese companies are meeting these coexisting challenges.

One example of doing more with less is Japan’s Aeon, which plans to generate profits in Southeast Asia and China by helping companies improve their energy efficiency. This has become an increasing concern in Japan as energy imports have skyrocketed over the last three years. Aeon plans to take what it’s learned at home and expand by purchasing more foreign subsidiaries. According to the Nikkei Asian Review, its plan calls for “boosting Asian sales from the building management business 500% over the fiscal 2013 level to 30 billion yen ($292 million) in fiscal 2016.” It aims to expand from its base in northern China southward toward Southeast Asia, taking advantage of the wave of new real estate that has been built over the last few years and helping companies become more efficient in lighting, refrigeration and air-conditioning.

Another Japanese grocery chain, Maruetsu, has a similar approach in China, but instead of expanding with new stores it aspires to increase overall profitability. While the company has yet to be in China a year, it plans to have a profitable 20 store network in the country by 2017. It is attempting to build its brand on food quality, an issue for many Chinese grocers. The company plans to build market knowledge and learn how to be competitive before branching out into new markets. While the goal of 20 stores by 2017 may not happen, Maruetsu’s President Makoto Ueda has expressed confidence in the company’s ability to expand with this approach.

Two of Japanese automakers’ biggest production and sales markets in Southeast Asia, Indonesia and Thailand, are seeing a significant increase in their used auto markets. With auto sales increasing 40 percent among ASEAN countries, Indonesia and Thailand represented around 70 percent of that market. Companies like Japan Bike Auction in Indonesia and V-Gulliver in Thailand (the former is Japanese owned and the latter Japanese managed) are expanding auctions and dealership networks while also putting inventories online to boost sales and make the second-hand car market in these countries truly nationwide.

Probably the largest and most mainstream expansion recently will be a joint effort between the Japanese trading firm Sumitomo and telecommunications company KDDI to invest 200 billion yen in a joint venture with state-owned Myanmar Posts & Telecommunications (MPT) to develop Myanmar’s wireless network. The investment will span ten years as the venture attempts to expand a wireless network that only reaches 10 percent of Myanmar’s 65 million people. As one of the last few largely untapped consumer markets in the world, Myanmar represents a strategic opportunity for Japanese companies frustrated by thin and declining margins at home.

The last example, while not spearheaded by Japanese companies, definitely has the future of Japan’s agricultural and infrastructure sectors in mind. The foreign ministers of the five Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan) and Japan met on Wednesday in the Krygyz capital of Bishkek and agreed to promote agricultural cooperation. For this industry, where Japan seeks to automate and drive-up the scale of its production capacity in order to better feed its own people and compete in global markets, it will need external markets for its new technologies to offset its large research and implementation costs. Japan will also provide aid to Kyrgyzstan to improve its road network, in which Japanese construction companies can be expected to participate.

As the Bank of Japan on Friday released minutes from a meeting on June 12 and 13 that raised concerns about “structural factors” that may be leading to a slowdown in exports, Japanese companies will increasingly be looking to remain profitable by expanding and innovating on the ground in foreign markets. By identifying emerging sectors where they can scale up quickly with relatively little competition (especially compared to their domestic market), these companies stand the best chance of surviving the inevitable market downturn that Japan will experience as its population declines over the coming decades.



Corporate Japan’s Best Chance for Survival: Abroad | The Diplomat
 
Japan Cautiously Re-Emerges as Land of Luxury - Japan Real Time - WSJ

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  • July 22, 2014, 11:59 AM JST
Japan Cautiously Re-Emerges as Land of Luxury
ByMoeko Fujii


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Tokyo’s Ginza district, seen here in May, has added many luxury stores in recent years.
Bloomberg News
Despite warnings about the Japanese luxury market after the first sales-tax increase in 17 years, the country remains among the world’s healthiest markets for luxury goods, according to a report by consulting company McKinsey and Co.

McKinsey conducted interviews with 41 luxury executives to compile the report, which comes after Japan raised the national sales tax to 8% on April 1 from 5%. “The luxury executives generally agreed that the pre-hike binge had been greater than expected, while the post-hike bump had been smaller than they had predicted, ” said Todd Guild, a senior partner in McKinsey and Co. in Tokyo who analyzes retail and consumer trends. Ninety percent of the 41 luxury executives interviewed said the outlook for 2014 was somewhat or significantly better than 2013, according to the report.

McKinsey also surveyed 544 consumers who purchase luxury goods and found 45% said they felt showing off luxury goods was in bad taste. That was down from 51% over the last two years. Mr. Guild said the figures suggested an easing in the mood of sacrifice that prevailed after the March 11, 2011, earthquake and tsunami—when some shoppers brought brown paper bags to cover their purchases. McKinsey’s 2012 luxury report found less impact from the quake than initially expected.

A separate report this month by the Japanese advertising agency Hakuhodo found that Japanese consumers’ willingness to spend was almost up to levels from before the tax increase, most likely buoyed by rises in summer bonuses and demand for summer items. Respondents who cited the consumption tax increase as “worrying” dropped to 3% in July from 10% in June, the Hakuhodo report said.

The government has set plans to raise the sales tax again in October 2015 to 10%, although a final decision on whether to go ahead with the increase isn’t likely until late this year. The McKinsey report said it was too early to say whether Japanese consumer sentiment will remain positive, and Mr. Guild characterized the situation as “delicate.”

A previous sales tax increase in 1997 delivered a blow to consumer psychology and combined with the Asian financial crisis that year to push Japan back into the economic doldrums.

“You actually find that the luxury market is very sensitive to changes in the economic condition, not necessarily the economic condition itself,” said Nathalie Remy, a principal in McKinsey’s Paris office who co-leads McKinsey’s work for fashion and luxury-goods companies in Europe, the Middle East, Asia and Africa. “I call this the ‘optimism factor’. Consumer sensitivity is a key driver to the market.”

Mr. Guild said: “Japan has been one of the world’s most important luxury markets for a long time. At one time, it was the most important. Then China ascended, and there was an explosion of growth in the Chinese luxury market. Now, China has slowed down.”

McKinsey said in June that it expected luxury sales in China to grow more slowly, at around 2.5%. Ms. Remy observed that “while China’s growth rate for local consumption is slowing down, it’s still growth.” And with only 8% of Chinese citizens holding a passport, she said there was plenty of room for growth in overseas luxury stores that cater to Chinese visitors.
 
Are Japanese executives reading my posts? This is a promising sign.

Suntory’s Niinami Says Companies Need Fresh Talent - Japan Real Time - WSJ

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  • July 24, 2014, 10:41 AM JST
Suntory’s Niinami Says Companies Need Fresh Talent
ByJohn Bussey
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Incoming Suntory Chief Executive Takeshi Niinami speaks in Tokyo on July 1.
Bloomberg News
Takeshi Niinami, the incoming chief executive of Suntory Holdings Ltd. and an adviser to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on the economy, believes Japanese companies need to hire fresh, outside talent into their executive ranks. Times are changing, he says, and current thinking in Japan’s corporate offices isn’t always keeping pace.

Mr. Niinami, speaking at the Japan Society in New York Wednesday, was in some regards talking his own book. His ascendance to the top rank of Suntory, which happens later this year, is striking in two regards: First, he was recruited from outside the company, unusual in Japan where executives traditionally are groomed internally. Second, privately held Suntory for the first time picked a chief executive who isn’t a member of the company’s founding family.

Mr. Niinami, currently chairman of Lawson Inc., the convenience store chain, advises Mr. Abe on the structural changes needed to achieve the growth goals of “Abenomics.” He says Japanese companies are too often encumbered by scores of subsidiaries that aren’t core to their business but which tradition keeps bound to the mother ship. He says they should be spun off.

That step alone, argues Mr. Niinami, would likely boost corporate profitability and increase the dynamism of Japan’s economy by creating smaller companies that can move faster or be acquired by other, better-matching firms.

Prime Minister Abe’s economic changes haven’t addressed the politically tricky zone of labor mobility. Japan’s rigid strictures on hiring and firing make companies think twice about investing. Mr. Niinami says spinning off those noncore subsidiaries also addresses this problem. About 30% of Japan’s labor force is employed by large companies, which are more constrained by labor law, he says. Smaller companies employ the bulk of the rest, and they have more freedom to hire and fire. Decoupling smaller noncore businesses from the core will in itself spur labor mobility.

Or so goes Mr. Niinami’s argument.
 
Japan Trade Data: Bad But Not Worrying - Real Time Economics - WSJ

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  • July 24, 2014, 12:35 AM ET
Japan Trade Data: Bad But Not Worrying
ByEleanor Warnock
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Japanese trade data for June, released Thursday, may not have encouraged analysts looking for a pickup in exports to end a two-year streak of trade deficits.

Yet the figures are not all cause for concern, some economists say.

True, there are worrying signs. Exports remain lackluster, even though U.S. growth is picking up, suggesting a lack of competitiveness. Meanwhile imports of electrical machinery are soaring. Japan’s trade balance looks likely to stay in the red.

Yet Capital Economics economist Marcel Thieliant says there’s room for some optimism. The seasonally unadjusted trade deficit has narrowed to Y822.2 billion in June from a peak of Y2.8 trillion in January.

Mr. Thieliant sees further narrowing ahead as export demand picks up. Falling global energy prices and a restart of Japan’s nuclear reactors will also reduce the nation’s import bill, he adds.

Those that worry about Japan’s developing a structural trade deficit say it will make the nation dependent on foreign creditors – a risk given Japan’s huge public debt.

The large deficit helped push Japan’s current account – which includes trade and other income flows – into the red in late 2013. More recently, the current account has returned to surplus.

The crisis scenario goes like this: Japan starts to become a net importer of goods and services, sending the current account deficit in the red for good. If Japan becomes a net capital importer, it will have to rely more on foreigners buying Japanese government bonds to finance its public debts.

Economists say that as Japan has over a quadrillion yen of debt outstanding, there is no way foreign investors will accept Japan’s low yields. As foreigners demand higher returns to compensate them for holding JGBs, the government’s debt financing costs will rise, potentially causing fiscal havoc.

Mr. Thieliant is sanguine about those risks. By his calculations, the current account surplus should actually recover to 3.5% of gross domestic product by 2020 from 0.4% in 2013 as the trade situation improves.

Furthermore, ample savings by households and companies have been enough to finance the JGB market largely with domestic holdings, and that looks unlikely to change, he says.

But does that mean Japan is free from fiscal trouble? Not necessarily. “There is no reason for complacency,” he says. “There is no guarantee that private investors will continue buying JGBs at current low interest rates.” Current account data for June will be released on August 8.
 
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Japan’s public expenditure on official development aid grew more than a third between 2012 and 2013 but the government needs to increase its focus on results and transparency, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

OECD’s Development Assistance Committee (DAC) published its review of the world’s third largest economy yesterday and revealed that Japan’s net ODA was $11.8bn last year. A debt cancellation for Myanmar and increases in bilateral lending were the main reasons for the rise in spending.

As a result, Japan moved up one place to become the fourth largest DAC donor, by increasing its public expenditure on international aid, growing it from 0.17% of gross national income to 0.23% in 2013. However, Japan’s commitment to spending 0.7% of its national income on international aid remains well below target.

The country has since launched a series of new global initiatives in areas such as health, climate change, finance, women’s empowerment and disaster risk reduction, the OECD report noted as it hailed Japan for increasingly exerting global leadership and influence.

But the review highlighted that Japan’s development policy lacked coherence. Monitoring and reporting on the success of development programmes was not done effectively.

DAC chair Erik Solheim said: ‘In the sixtieth anniversary of its development assistance, Japan can take pride in becoming the fourth largest DAC donor and an increasingly effective partner in development.


Japan told to improve aid monitoring and transparency | Public Finance International

‘Japan will be better able to demonstrate its achievements by bringing a sharper results focus to all its work, including the ability to show its co-operation is supporting efforts to reduce in the many countries in which it works.’

The DAC recommended that Japan continues to scale up its support to countries where assistance is most needed, including least developed countries, bearing in mind international commitments.

It also issued recommendations for measuring and monitoring the impact of Japan’s development programmes on poverty reduction.

Japan should also take a more strategic, better resourced and targeted approach to communication to build better understanding and support among the Japanese people for development assistance.

‘And while the review found increased efforts to improve transparency, Japan will need to do more if it is to comply with transparency commitment by 2015,’ the report concluded.

- See more at: Japan told to improve aid monitoring and transparency | Public Finance International
 
A debt cancellation for Myanmar...

Why not Pakistan?

We have a plethora of programs on the ground in Pakistan. . Considering our understanding of the needs of the Government of Pakistan and the Pakistani people. For example, the following is just one example of the kinds of processes we are involved in -- with Pakistan.



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Government of Pakistan does not need to pay back loan of 4.9 billion Japanese Yen for Polio Eradication efforts

Japan has announced that the Government of Pakistan (GoP) does not need to pay back the loan of 4.9 billion Japanese yen (US$51 million) which financed polio vaccination campaigns from September 2011 to October 2013. As per an agreement announced in 2011, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation will repay the loan to the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) on behalf of GoP.

When the loan was decided in 2011, Japan, GoP and the Gates Foundation agreed to an innovative financing approach. It was agreed that the Gates Foundation would repay the loan to JICA on behalf of GoP, if GoP met certain performance criteria which showed that vaccination campaigns were implemented successfully. After the assessment of GoP's performance, it is now formally decided that the Gates Foundation will repay the debt.

Japan's ODA loan provided the country with funds for oral polio vaccine, immunization workers, and vaccination activities across the country and along the Pakistan/Afghanistan border. Japan worked with partners such as the World Bank for co-financing the project as well as the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) for vaccine procurement and the World Health Organization (WHO) for service delivery in the polio campaign.

Mr. Takashi Katae, chargè d'affaires of Japan to Pakistan, praised GoP for showing satisfactory performance, and appreciated the Gates Foundation for its continued commitment for partnership with Japan and Pakistan. He stressed that Pakistan and international development partners should not weaken their effort for polio eradication for future generations, despite the existing complex challenges in Pakistan.

Mr. Kawasaki, chief representative of JICA commented that the fund contributed to Pakistan not only for expanding service delivery but also for making polio programme further accountable and result oriented.

Japan has been a long standing donor to polio eradication and has funded anti-polio initiatives and broader immunization activities in Pakistan since 1996. Total Japanese assistance for polio eradication activities in Pakistan so far amounts to approximately US$ 145.65 million.


Government of Pakistan does not need to pay back loan of 4.9 billion Japanese Yen for Polio Eradication efforts | JICA Pakistan Office | About JICA | JICA
 
@Nihonjin1051

This is peanuts!
Pakistan, unlike Mynamar, has to pay nearly 4 billion USD every year..
And Pakistan is more debted than Mynamar...

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@Nihonjin1051

This is peanuts!
Pakistan, unlike Mynamar, has to pay nearly 4 billion USD every year..
And Pakistan is more debted than Mynamar...

View attachment 40473

@ashok321

Japan forgave $2 Billion in debt that Myanmar had with Japan and also promised for more lending to that nation after Abe had visited Myanmar this year. It is a show of good faith, and a reward Japan has given to Myanmar for opening itself to Japanese businesses and investments. In addition, Japan is to maximize on this. We will be building an industrial park near the capital of Yangon.

I am very sure that similar processes can be seen in Pakistan, soon.And if you do your research, you will see that Japan has written off plethora of loans for Pakistan. We are very understanding of the needs of the Pakistani Government and the Pakistani People.

Let us remain positive.

why Pakistan is best friend of China, who bully Japan now ? :partay:


@EastSea

Pakistan is near and dear to Japan. We have hundreds of businesses in the country, and are optimistic. Our relationship with each other has not been affected despite the political differences Japan has with certain East Asian nation(s). Let me be clear with you. Japan and Pakistan are friends, economic partners, and will continue to be so, and more.
 
Japan trade deficit at record $75b in first half

Exports failed to keep pace with surging imports, the Finance Ministry reported Thursday

  • AP
  • Published: 20:31 July 24, 2014

  • Tokyo: Japan’s trade deficit surged to a record 7.6 trillion yen (Dh274 billion, $74.9 billion) in the first half of the year as exports failed to keep pace with surging imports, the Finance Ministry reported Thursday.

    Japan’s bulging import bill was partly due to a jump in demand as businesses and consumers stepped up purchases ahead of an April 1 increase in the sales tax to 8 per cent from 5 per cent.

    Imports for the six months jumped 10 per cent to 42.6 trillion yen ($420 billion) while exports rose 3.2 per cent to 35.1 trillion yen ($346 billion), the preliminary data show.

    Imports from China including industrial machinery, consumer products and food jumped 14 per cent, leaving Japan with a 2.92 trillion deficit with China for the first half.


    Japan maintained a surplus with the US in the first half of the year, at 2.8 trillion yen ($27.6 billion), as exports rose 4 per cent while imports climbed 12 per cent.

    The deficit in June alone more than tripled from the year before to a higher-than-expected 822.2 billion yen ($8.1 billion). Imports surged 8.4 per cent year-on-year to 6.76 trillion yen ($66.6 billion), while exports fell 2 per cent to 5.94 trillion yen ($58.5 billion), the ministry said.

    Drag on GDP

    “While the trade deficit widened last month, it remains much smaller than before the sales tax hike. This suggests that net trade finally ceased to be a drag on GDP growth last quarter,” Capital Economics analyst Marcel Thieliant said in a commentary.

    The trade deficit was 911 billion yen in May.

    Higher imports of fuel and gas have pushed Japan’s trade balance into the red following the halting of all its nuclear reactors for safety checks after the 2011 disaster at the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant. In January-June, imports of liquefied natural gas rose 12 percent while oil imports jumped 5 percent.

    But overall, Japan’s economy is less and less export-driven thanks to the shift overseas of much of its manufacturing in search of lower costs and faster growing markets.

    Exports have not received much impetus from the weakening of the yen in 2012-2013. Japan remains heavily dependent on its vehicle exports, which rose 60 percent from the year before in the first half of 2014.

    Japan trade deficit at record $75b in first half | GulfNews.com
 
Japan Is Now The Walmart Of The World Economy


Since coming to power in December 2012, Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe has advocated a string of aggressive policy measures, dubbed Abenomics, to bolster the economy, stoke inflation, and improve global competitiveness via a weaker yen.
Abenomics for a long time was successful in depressing the yen. It went from about 82 yen to a dollar in December 2012, to 105.3 yen to a dollar in January 2014.

Year-to-date however the U.S. dollar is down 3.7% against the yen.

Richard Bernstein, CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, thinks the only real story in Japan is the yen.

"The competitive advantage has been whittled away through demographics, through productivity, through better competitiveness in other emerging market," Bernstein said at a breakfast earlier today. "What's left is currency. If you have no competitive advantage, this is true of every country, how do you compete? You compete on price."

Bernstein dubbed Japan's strategy, the Walmart strategy. Walmart he explained uses cheap prices to gain market share, and that was the story in Japan for a year and a half. But the yen has now started to appreciate.

"Think about what would happen to Walmart's stock price if it started raising prices," he said. "They'd have no competitive advantage. This is a market share game for them. So look what happened, the yen started appreciating — Walmart raising prices — and the Nikkei goes down, that's it. That's all you have to know."

Bernstein said back in the 1980s there was little correlation between the yen and the stock market, but that changed.

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Here's the yen falling against the dollar.


"The one arrow, two arrow, three arrow, four arrow stuff is great politics, but I don't think it makes any difference," he said.
Bernstein was making reference to the names of various parts of Abenomics. Arrow one, is a fiscal stimulus, arrow two involves aggressive monetary easing, and arrow three drives structural reforms driven at improving economic competitiveness.

While Bernstein does think the other arrows will bring back the competitive advantage eventually, he doesn't think it will do much for profitability or stocks in the next 12 to 15 months.

He also said that the Bank of Japan doesn't realize that the odds are stacked against them because whenever there's a problem in emerging markets, the yen is seen as a safe haven, which causes it to strengthen.

"In the next 12-24 months as an investor you just want to look at the yen. That will tell you the whole story for Japan," he said. "It's just Walmart, that's all there is."


Read more: Japan Walmart Of The Global Economy - Business Insider
 
Japan reaches EPA with Mongolia


Japan and Mongolia have in principle reached an economic partnership agreement, including the eventual elimination of tariffs on used cars imported from Japan.
Under the agreement reached between Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and visiting Mongolian President Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj on Tuesday, tariffs on cars four or more years old will be gradually abolished over the course of 10 years.

Removing the 5 percent tariffs on those used cars was the focus of the negotiations. Mongolia compromised to reach the accord by adopting the 10-year time span.

This is the first time that Mongolia has reached a broad agreement on an EPA with any nation. The two nations aim to officially sign the deal by the end of this year.

Following Tuesday’s agreement, reached during talks at the Prime Minister’s Office, about 50 percent of all tariffs imposed on Japan’s exports to Mongolia will be immediately abolished, while the figure is expected to increase to about 96 percent in 10 years.


Japan reaches EPA with Mongolia - The Japan News
 
BISHKEK (Jiji Press)—The foreign minsters of Japan and five Central Asian countries have met and agreed to promote cooperation in agriculture and antidrug measures.
Japan plans to offer cutting-edge farming techniques to the five countries—Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.

The measures were included in a joint statement adopted at the meeting, which took place in the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek on Wednesday.

This was the fifth foreign ministers’ meeting under the Central Asia plus Japan Dialogue initiated in 2004.

The administration of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is aiming to increase Japan’s presence in Central Asia, where China’s influence has been growing.

During the meeting, Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida stressed that Japan will work to promote peace and stability in the region and in the international community under the banner of “proactive pacifism.”

At a joint press conference later in the day, Kishida said the five Central Asian foreign ministers had voiced their understanding and support for the Japanese position.

The ministers also agreed that it is necessary to strengthen border controls between three of the five Central Asian countries and Afghanistan to block traffic of drug smugglers and Islamic militants after international forces withdraw from Afghanistan later this year. Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan have borders with Afghanistan.

Separately, Kishida met with Kyrgyz Finance Minister Olga Lavrova. They signed a document on a project to improve Kyrgyzstan’s road infrastructure using grant aid from Japan.


Japan, Central Asia pledge farm, antidrug efforts - The Japan News
 

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