TheImmortal
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Well support, adequate training and well funded army are the key factors and not stupid war experience irrelevant for conventional warfare.
As proven by Russian struggling war against Ukraine.
Asymmetric warfare is actually very helpful for conventional warfare in certain areas. And there is no better training then live training. And no better way to understand logistic and supply support than having to defend your supply from asymmetric attacks on supply lines.
It took SAA 5+ years and 100K+ dead to learn urban warfare. Russians are poor at it because in Syria they weren’t on the ground really (mostly air support) and in Chechenya they leveled Grozny before they moved in. ATGMs and drones were not widespread during Chechens wars either.
This urban warfare is tame compared to Syria where terrorists would leave 1000+ IEDS and booby traps when they retreated and the heavy use of IRAMs and Toshkas. Indeed a Russian commander stepped on one accidentally in Syria when touring a captured area and died.
Neither side seems to do that in this European conflict especially Ukraine side.
russia is unprepared for Ukraine, i agree. but funny enough as a counterpoint to you, russia has similar experience to the US but on a smaller scale. They fought lesser opponents in syria against similar type of arab opponents that the us fought, they had mercenaries in many middle east conflicts including american fought ones, they fought Georgia, they fought the chechens...twice. and as you clearly agree, all that experience did not translate into quick victory over Ukraine(though they are winning still).
chinese war doctrine was never the same as the soviets/russians. the original PRC doctrine was Mao's "people's war" which is still studied around the world especially by partisans and guerillas, it emphasized local support and maneuver and infiltration warfare by relatively lightly armed units on foot and composed of small groups that could organically reform/merge as need if casualties are taken. China never had the extent of heavy top down approach that the soviets deployed. plus china could not follow soviet doctrine even if they wanted because china did not have the military industry that the soviets had. this people's war doctrine was roughly followed until the mid-70s, when china began to be able to add a notable airforce and mechanized components to its armies and started looking at more than just defence and at smaller objectives than total war. the real change came in 1991 with the gulf war. which really began the chinese move to true combined arms combat and a emphasis on upgrading technology instead of just quantity, this meant improved communications, sensors and a leaner but meaner military. Modern chinese doctrine under Hu then really picking up pace under Xi, places very heavy emphasis on mobility and information warfare in domains such as the cyber and space in addition to range advantage whether that is seeing or shooting, a lot of it is based on what they saw america do, with their own added flavors of course.
china-taiwan conflict is possible, but i don't see american boot on the ground or any active american participation at all, we're seeing this now in Ukraine, and saw this when russia annexed crimea and when it fought georgia. there is no defense treaty with taiwan and being an island, they can't be supplied like the Ukrainians are, or how the mujahideen was. additionally, Taiwan is way smaller than Ukraine, if we take russia as a yardstick in the amount of land they took in the first week. if the PLA lands on taiwan, and performed as bad as russia, china would still take the entire country in like 3 days minus a few major cities which would all be surrounded. furthermore a taiwan scenario in which the US does intervene would almost entirely be a naval and air war, if you take naval and air supremacy and land on the island, its game over for the defenders.
I agree on most of your points. The points we disagree are few and not far apart.
What are your thoughts on Xi and how he is responding to this Ukraine event? Biden and US deep state is saying Xi is better of with relations with the West, but this is the same trick they used on Putin from 2000-2014.
They made his country dependent on trade relations with the West and certain technology transfer from the West for various industries. So that if he ever tried to stop their designs his country would be thoroughly punished economically, socially, and politically.
China is much more economically independent thAn Russia and can tap into its 1B population for GDP growth, but it still has heavy links with US and Europe.
US/Europe has shown they are willing to sacrifice their own people’s economic well being to make sure their designs work out. US is no friend to China we all know that especially with the so called “Asia Pivot” being openly talked about as if it’s a completely natural and legal thing to do.
Would appreciate your take on China’s combating US designs. For years I thought Putin was too accommodating with the West. Him and his Oligarchs a little too naive they would be eventually be accepted as equals by the West. Never happened. All designs to weaken Russia when the time comes as Putin (hopefully) clearly sees now.
I mean widespread seizures of oligarchs assets around the world as if this is legal and natural to do? People breaking into their properties and vandalizing it. Barbaric savages is what the West is
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