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It’s Time to Rein in Saudi Arabia

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After Paris and Beirut, It’s Time to Rein in Saudi Arabia - FPIF

After Paris and Beirut, It’s Time to Rein in Saudi Arabia
America's leading Sunni ally has been propagating a violent, sectarian religious ideology long before ISIS came on the scene.

By Inge Fryklund, November 20, 2015.

After the carnage in Paris, Western governments turned immediately to debating the usual tactics for “bringing the terrorists to justice.” Should we employ drone strikes, they wonder? Boots on the ground? Police?

The much more important matter, however, is identifying and stopping the source of the nihilism, misogyny, and sectarian animus that’s found fertile breeding grounds in the civil wars of the Middle East. Unless the source is addressed, there will be an endless supply of terrorists wreaking havoc. And we in the West will continue wringing our hands and responding impulsively rather than strategically.

While virtually all Islamic scholars dispute the theological soundness of the ISIS ideology, the group’s roots lie in fundamentalist Sunni Islam, specifically the Wahhabi strain officially espoused by Saudi Arabia — our “ally” — which views Shiites as apostates and seeks to turn Islamic societies back to an intolerant (and imagined) medieval past where women are stoned for adultery and reporters are lashed. Since the 1970s, the Saudi government and its allied religious establishment have exported their extremist version of Sunni Islam around the world — all financed by their oil money.

During the 1970s and ‘80s, Saudi Arabia financed Pakistan’s ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence) in support of the anti-Soviet insurgents in Afghanistan that became the Taliban. The U.S. matched the Saudi contribution to ISI, but abdicated its responsibility to see where the money was going. Anxious to avoid overt provocation of the Soviets, Washington allowed Pakistan and Saudi Arabia to choose the recipients of American taxpayer dollars, and these were the most fundamentalist insurgent factions — like the Haqqani network, which plagues Afghanistan even today and has targeted American soldiers serving there.

Saudi money financed the Pakistani madrassas that provided the only available “schooling” for a generation of young Afghan male refugees. In camps devoid of women, the extreme separation of the sexes resulted in young males detached from any experience of women or family life. They were taught to memorize the Koran (in Arabic, having no idea what it said), use weapons, and hate the West. They were otherwise illiterate about both secular subjects and Islamic jurisprudence.

Since the 1990s, Saudi money has similarly financed mosques and Wahhabi-inspired teaching throughout the Balkans as well, contributing to the instability of that region.

It appears that the connection between Saudi Arabia and the Paris bombings is even more direct. Many of the plotters came from the Molenbeek neighborhood in Brussels. In the 1970s, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries funded Wahhabi religious schools there, displacing or taking over the more moderate mosques founded by the Turkish and Moroccan immigrants in the district and helping to thwart their children’s potential for cultural integration.

ISIS’ extreme misogynistic worldview was starkly on display in its statement after the Paris massacre. It referred to a “profligate prostitution party” at the Bataclan Conference Center. This should be a red flag. The equation of women out to a concert and prostitution reflects the same mindset animating the Saudi insistence that women cannot drive, cannot leave the house unless escorted by a male relative, and must be covered head to toe. (In fact, I would argue there’s an insufficiently explored thread of distorted sexuality in hardline Wahhabi belief and practice.)

Our “ally’s” religiously mandated intolerance was displayed to the world in the hatred that we witnessed on Nov. 13th, with hundreds dead and many more maimed in Lebanon and Paris. Why do we put up with this aggressive medieval proselytizing from Saudi Arabia? With allies like this, who needs enemies?

Well, the simple answer is oil: We’ve chosen to buy our oil from Saudi Arabia and boycott the Shiite Iranian source.

But cheap oil may have been purchased too dearly when the mayhem in the Middle East and now Europe is the result. Accepting higher oil prices in the interests of containing Sunni nihilism could be a worthwhile bargain.

We’ve also boxed ourselves in diplomatically by a generation of demonizing and isolating Iran, the major Shiite power, leaving no counterweight to the Saudi Sunni ideology. Yes, we cite the 1979 takeover of the American embassy in Tehran, but forget that Iranian anti-American sentiment was a predictable result of the CIA overthrowing the elected and more or less democratic government of Prime Minister Mossadegh in 1953. (The U.S. acted at a British request; they wanted to control Iranian oil and Mossadegh nationalized it.) We condemned Iran to a generation of brutal dictatorship under the Shah’s notorious secret police. Should we have been surprised when the revolution that came in 1979 brought payback to the Americans?

While Iran does indeed support violence in other countries, its efforts seem rationally related to political objectives (supporting Hezbollah against the Israeli occupation, and Assad as a fellow Shiite power) and might be resolved as such. They have thus far not included assaults on uninvolved civilians and barbarism for its own sake.

So what to do at this point? We have leverage over Saudi Arabia if we choose to use it. We should stop supplying weapons — which are currently being used to attack Shiite factions in Yemen — and insist that Saudi Arabia cease financing fundamentalists throughout Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria, and the Balkans. It’s pointless to apply tactical solutions to the problems of the Middle East while Saudi Arabia is free to (almost literally) pour oil on the fires.

Ms. Inge Fryklund, JD, PhD, has worked in the Balkans, Iraq, and Afghanistan, with USAID, UNDP, and with the U.S. Army and Marine Corps.
 
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Saudi Arabia is stumbling » peoplesworld

Saudi Arabia is stumbling
by: Conn Hallinan

Using its vast oil wealth, it has quietly spread its ultra-conservative brand of Islam throughout the Muslim world, secretly undermined secular regimes in its region and prudently kept to the shadows, while others did the fighting and dying. It was Saudi money that fueled the mujahedeen in Afghanistan, underwrote Saddam Hussein's invasion of Iran, and bankrolled Islamic movements and terrorist groups from the Caucasus to Hindu Kush.

Today that circumspect diplomacy is in ruins, and the House of Saud looks more vulnerable than it has since the country was founded in 1926. Unraveling the reasons for the current train wreck is a study in how easily hubris, illusion, and old-fashioned ineptness can trump even bottomless wealth.

Stumbling over oil

The Kingdom's first stumble was a strategic decision last fall to undermine competitors by upping oil production and, thus, lowering the price. Their reasoning was that, if the price of a barrel of oil dropped from over $100 to around $80, it would strangle competition from more expensive sources and new technologies, including the U.S. fracking industry, the Arctic, and emergent producers like Brazil. That, in turn, would allow Riyadh to reclaim its shrinking share of the energy market.

There was also the added benefit that lower oil prices would damage countries that the Saudis didn't like: Russia, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Iran.

In one sense it worked. The American fracking industry is scaling back, the exploitation of Canada's oil sands has slowed, and many Arctic drillers closed up shop. And, indeed, countries like Venezuela, Ecuador, and Russia took a serious economic hit. But despite obvious signs, the Saudis failed to anticipate China's economic slowdown and how that would dampen economic growth in the leading industrial nations. The price of oil went from $115 a barrel in June 2014 to $44 today. Because it is so pure, it costs less than $10 to produce a barrel of Saudi oil.

The Kingdom planned to use its almost $800 billion in financial reserves to ride out the drop in prices, but it figured that oil would not fall below $80 a barrel, and then only for a few months.

According to the Financial Times, in order to balance its budget, Saudi Arabia needs a price of between $95 and $105 a barrel. And while oil prices will likely rise over the next five years, projections are that the price per barrel will only reach $65. Saudi debt is on schedule to rise from 6.7 percent of GDP this year to 17.3 percent next year, and its 2015 budget deficit is $130 billion.

Saudi Arabia is spending $10 billion a month in foreign exchange reserves to pay the bills and has been forced to borrow money on the international financial market. Two weeks ago the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) regional director, Masood Ahmed, warned Riyadh that the country would deplete its financial reserves in five years unless it drastically cut its budget.

But the Kingdom can't do that.

When the Arab Spring broke out in 2011, the Saudi Arabia headed it off by pumping $130 billion into the economy, raising wages, improving services and providing jobs for its growing population. Saudi Arabia has one of the youngest populations in the Middle East, a lot of it unemployed and much of it poorly educated. Some 25 percent of the population lives in poverty. Money keeps the lid on, but for how long, even with the heavy-handed repression that characterizes Saudi political life?

Stumbling over Yemen

In March, the Kingdom intervened in Yemen, launching an air war, a naval blockade, and partial ground campaign on the pretense that Iran was behind the civil war, a conclusion not even the Americans agree with.

Again, the Saudis miscalculated, even though one of its major allies, Pakistan, warned Riyadh that it was headed for trouble. In part, the Kingdom's hubris was fed by the illusion that U.S. support would make it a short war - the Americans are arming the Saudis, supplying them with bombing targets, backing up the naval blockade, and refueling their warplanes in mid-air.

But six months down the line the conflict has turned into a stalemate. The war has killed 5,000 people, including 500 children, flattened cities, and alienated much of the local population. It has also generated a food and medical crisis, as well as creating opportunities for the Islamic State and al-Qaeda to seize territory in Southern Yemen. Efforts by the UN to investigate the possibility of war crimes were blocked by Saudi Arabia and the U.S.

As the Saudis are finding out, war is a very expensive business, a burden the Saudis could meet under normal circumstances, but not when the price the Kingdom's only commodity, oil, is plummeting.

Stumbling over Syria

Nor is Yemen the only war that the Saudis are involved with. Riyadh, along with other Gulf monarchies, including Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, are underwriting many of the groups trying to overthrow Syria's Bashar al-Assad. When anti-government demonstrations broke out in 2011, the Saudis - along with the Americans and the Turks - calculated that Assad could be toppled in a few months.

But that was magical thinking. As bad as Assad is, a lot of Syrians, particularly minorities like Shiites, Christians, and Druze, were far more afraid of the Islamists from al-Qaeda and the IS then they were of their own government. So the war has dragged on for four years and has now killed close to 250,000 people.

Once again, the Saudis miscalculated, though in this case they were hardly alone. The Syrian government turned out to be more resilient that it appeared. And Riyadh's bottom line that Assad had to go just ended up bringing Iran and Russia into the picture, checkmating any direct intervention by the anti-Assad coalition. Any attempt to establish a no-fly zone will have to confront the Russian air force, not something that anyone other than U.S. presidential aspirants are eager to do.

The war has also generated a flood of refugees, deeply alarming the European Union, which finally seems to be listening to Moscow's point about the consequences of overthrowing governments without a plan as to who takes over. There is nothing like millions of refugees headed in your direction to cause some serious re-thinking of strategic goals.

It's a mess

The Saudis' goal of isolating Iran is rapidly collapsing. The P5+1 - the U.S., China, Russia, Great Britain, France, and Germany - successfully completed a nuclear agreement with Tehran, despite every effort by the Saudis and Israel to torpedo it. And at Moscow's insistence, Washington has reversed its opposition to Iran being included in peace talks around Syria.

Stymied in Syria, mired down in Yemen, its finances increasingly fragile, the Kingdom also faces internal unrest from its long marginalized Shia minority in the country's east and south. To top it off, the IS has called for the "liberation" of Mecca from the House of Saud and launched a bombing campaign aimed at the Kingdom's Shiites.

Last month's Hajj disaster that killed more than 2,100 pilgrims - and anger at the Saudi authorities foot dragging on investigating the tragedy - have added to the royal family's woes. The Saudis claim 769 people were killed, a figure that no other country in the world accepts. And there are persistent rumors that the deadly stampede was caused when police blocked off an area in order to allow high-ranking Saudis special access to the holy sites.

Changes in the region

Some of these missteps can be laid at the feet of the new king, Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud, and of a younger generation of aggressive Saudis he has appointed to key positions. But Saudi Arabia's troubles are also a reflection of a Middle East in transition. Exactly where that it is headed is by no means clear, but change is in the wind.

Iran is breaking out of its isolation and, with its large, well-educated population, strong industrial base, and plentiful energy resources, is poised to play a major regional, if not international, role. Turkey is in the midst of a political upheaval, and there is growing opposition among Turks to Ankara's meddling in the Syrian civil war

Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, is impaled on its own policies, both foreign and domestic. "The expensive social contract between the Royal family and Saudi citizens will get more difficult, and eventually impossible to sustain if oil prices don't recover," Meghan L. O'Sullivan, director of the Geopolitics of Energy project at Harvard told the New York Times.

However, the House of Saud has little choice but to keep pumping oil to pay for its wars and keep the internal peace. But more production drives down prices even further, and, once the sanctions come off of Iran, the oil glut will become worse.

While it is still immensely wealthy, there are lots of bills coming due. It is not clear the Kingdom has the capital or the ability to meet them.
 
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Like Goldman Sachs, Saudi is too big to fail. Oil isn't the reason only either; West wants to maintain it's hegemony over Sunni Islamic States through Saudi. And most important of all, with U.S global hegemony on under challenge by Russia and China, it needs a boogeyman to police the world. There's plenty more reasons.
 
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Saudis have a pretty good record on terror financing nowadays. It's Qatar and Kuwait who are the worst.
 
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I agree with you... within next 3 years, Russia and Iran will face huge issues if the oil prices stay the same..
 
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The articles make me realize just how little people actually know about the situation in the middle east, yet spout on and on about what should be done. Having a Phd apparently doesn't equate to having common sense. Simple example, the articles fail to mention what will actually happen if Saudi Arabia fails as a state, or is refused assistance, why? Because the answer doesn't suit their narrative.
 
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Saudi Arabia fails as a state, or is refused assistance, why?
Yup agreed. ppl dont realize the fact apart from humanitarian catastrophe that would follow and loss of client for western military products. Its the latter which is keeping them afloat. Finding another such client would be pretty hard.
 
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Easier said than done. Saudis have used their oil money to buy off half of the US Congress. Nobody is going to rein them in until the oil money runs out.
 
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It is a fact that suadis wanted ISIS to weaken shia government in iraq. they funded them provided them weapon. ISIS was initially funded by west as well before they realize the kinda monsters they are. West have not learnt the leason. It is just repeat of alqeeda episode. You fuil jihad against the government you dont like and then label them as terrorist once you are done with them
 
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I don't think anybody can really "rein in" such a powerful country.
 
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It is a fact that suadis wanted ISIS to weaken shia government in iraq. they funded them provided them weapon. ISIS was initially funded by west as well before they realize the kinda monsters they are. West have not learnt the leason. It is just repeat of alqeeda episode. You fuil jihad against the government you dont like and then label them as terrorist once you are done with them

Same in our beloved country in reference to the Talibans and ISI. Any Pakistani that objects to that holy and sacred policy could be termed as a "Afghani" or even a Martian !!!
 
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Same in our beloved country in reference to the Talibans and ISI. Any Pakistani that objects to that holy and sacred policy could be termed as a "Afghani" or even a Martian !!!
nopes. totally a different scenario. after world abandoned afghans, there was a civil war. every proniance have kind of its own government. Consolidation and formation of a proper government was required. a power was rising and which was not anti paksitan, which was pakhtoon who are in majority. we supported them . there is a misconception that we made Taliban. they were on rise and we aided them. they were welcomed in kabul when they won their . you can ask ur most anti pakistan afghan friend he will tell u the same.
 
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Like Goldman Sachs, Saudi is too big to fail. Oil isn't the reason only either; West wants to maintain it's hegemony over Sunni Islamic States through Saudi. And most important of all, with U.S global hegemony on under challenge by Russia and China, it needs a boogeyman to police the world. There's plenty more reasons.

in some threads on this forum pakistanis have falling over each other to defend Saudi Arabia. If Pakistanis are complicit in defending the Saudi monarchy aren't you doing the grunt work for Uncle Sam ?
 
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