It's started: Robot Uprising Begins as China Turns to Machines to Fill in Gaps in the Workforce

[oprih]

By getting robots, China's factories are starting to become a preview of the future.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Sure it does. A factory that need to hire 100 workers before now only needs 15 to keep the production line running. With overcapacity being a major concern today, while you can have the same 100 workers cranking out 10 times as much products as before with robots, you won't be able to find a market for them.

Yes, that's exactly what I have said. Where do the displaced workers go? They chose things with higher added value, like becoming scientists, engineers etc.

There will be in general more production than today.

 

[Zsari]

Yes, that's exactly what I have said. Where do the displaced workers go? They chose things with higher added value, like becoming scientists, engineers etc.

There will be in general more production than today.

More like unemployed.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

More like unemployed.

Absolutely not.

For example look at agriculture. In 1500, around 80% or more of the population was engaged in agriculture, and related activities. With the industrial revolution, the mechanization of agriculture, production of fertilizers, pesticides, seed technology etc. Today, less than 5% of the population is engaged in agriculture in advanced economies, which are capable of producing enough for the rest 95%. Rather, the yields of crops have actually increased, and gross production of all crops has exploded compared to say 1500.

Humans in the long run will always migrate to stuff that they can do and is good. Technology doesn't kill jobs, it creates them.

More like unemployed.

Also, your analysis will be correct if there was a sudden change. But there is never a sudden change. If today, by some magic, robots were capable of handling a lot of manufacturing, then yes, a there will be unemployment problems. But these things never happen like this, even the ones that are revolutionary.

Robot evolution will be clearly visible, and humans of the next generation will take requisite training to do jobs that are created.

 

[Jlaw]

By getting robots, China's factories are starting to become a preview of the future.

By investing in robots, dreamers like Vietnam and India hoping to be the next manufacturing powerhouse can keep dreaming.

 

[Viny]

When ever I hear about China and Robot, the first thing that comes to mind is this amazing farmer from china

Sooner or later EAST will be hub of innovations and China will lead it, automation and robotics have been flavour of the day, sooner or latter humanoids will catch up too.

 

[Zsari]

Absolutely not.

For example look at agriculture. In 1500, around 80% or more of the population was engaged in agriculture, and related activities. With the industrial revolution, the mechanization of agriculture, production of fertilizers, pesticides, seed technology etc. Today, less than 5% of the population is engaged in agriculture in advanced economies, which are capable of producing enough for the rest 95%. Rather, the yields of crops have actually increased, and gross production of all crops has exploded compared to say 1500.

Humans in the long run will always migrate to stuff that they can do and is good. Technology doesn't kill jobs, it creates them.



Also, your analysis will be correct if there was a sudden change. But there is never a sudden change. If today, by some magic, robots were capable of handling a lot of manufacturing, then yes, a there will be unemployment problems. But these things never happen like this, even the ones that are revolutionary.

Robot evolution will be clearly visible, and humans of the next generation will take requisite training to do jobs that are created.

It took 400 years of gradual transition to reach such industrial level. Even today, there are hundreds of millions of Chinese farmers that are plowing the field not because they are needed, but because the country's industrial level still is not there yet to absorb them. Looking at the unemployment rate in Europe, even these industrialized nations have great difficulties in coping with their excess labor. And looking back at China, the higher one's education, the higher the unemployment rate is. Its a pyramid that you are hopping to turn it up side down.

More importantly, if there is not a job for you, a farmer can still tilt his field and be able to feed himself at the very least. But if a worker is out of job today, you are out on a limb. That's two fundamentally different situations.

And yes the robotic revolution will come very swiftly as profit is all that matters in capitalism.

 

[beijingwalker]

Robots Transforming China, Causing Heartburn at World Economic Forum

Monday, 25 January 2016

Robots Transforming China, Causing Heartburn at World Economic Forum
Shenzhen Evenwin Precision Technology Company, located in China’s Pearl River Delta (dubbed “The World’s Workshop”), has nearly completed the first stage of turning its plant that produces mobile phone components into one of the world’s first nearly 100-percent robot-operated factories. According to the company’s chairman, Chen Xingai, "The use of industrial robots will help the company to reduce the number of frontline workers by at least 90 percent. When all 1,000 industrial robots are put into operation … we will only need to recruit fewer than 200 software technicians and management personnel."

The finished product is being produced with far fewer defects and vastly greater output per unit of energy, not to mention lower pollution.

Evenwin is just one of dozens of companies operating in the Dongguan manufacturing hub in south China that are making such a change, but such “robotization” of factories traditionally staffed by humans is causing heartburn in Davos, Switzerland, where the 2016 World Economic Forum’s annual meeting just ended. As noted in his article in Project Syndicate the week before it opened, Klaus Schwab, the founder and chairman of the forum, wrung his hands over the prospect of the whole world following China’s example:

The Fourth Industrial Revolution builds on the Third Industrial Revolution, also known as the Digital Revolution … but it differs … in key ways: First, innovations can be developed and diffused faster than ever. Second, falling marginal production costs … augment returns to scale. Third, this global revolution will affect … all countries.

He admitted that while the Fourth Revolution “has the potential to empower individuals … it could also lead to marginalization of some groups, exacerbate inequality, create new security risks, and undermine human relationships.”

So Schwab, educated at Harvard and a former member of the steering committee of the Bilderberg Group, has just the answer to those problems: more government, preferably on a global scale. He writes that technology “is not an exogenous force over which humans have no control” but instead must be “shaped … in a way that advances our common objectives and upholds our values.”

What values does Schwab have in mind, exactly? Part of the answer is provided by a look behind Project Syndicate, which published his concerns. Dubbed “the world’s smartest op-ed page," Project Syndicate is funded by George Soros through his Open Society Foundation along with similar types such as Kofi Annan, former secretary-general of the United Nations, and Mikhail Gorbachev, former general secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union.

Schwab says that the alleged problems that follow a wholesale adoption of robotics factories can only be solved by exploring just “how the Fourth Industrial Revolution should develop," adding, "We must move to restructure our economic, social and political systems. It is clear that our current governance structures and dominant models of wealth creation are not equipped to meet current or, more important, future needs.… What is needed is … comprehensive … systemic transformation."

He finally reaches his end point, i.e., global government with himself and his Davos cronies in charge: "I firmly believe that the new technology age, if shaped in a responsive and responsible way [by us] … could create the sense that we are part of something much larger than ourselves — a true global civilization."

All of which is just so much blather, according to those who see the free market as in charge of the robotic revolution and politicians such as Schwab trying (and failing) to play catch-up. In response to competition from factories going robotic such as those in China’s “world's workshop," American companies are already moving toward increased use of robots, providing numerous additional advantages beyond just lower costs and defect rates.

The Social Security and Medicare taxes companies have to pay will be reduced by 90 percent. Surveillance by the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) will be almost completely eliminated. Minimum wage laws won’t apply. There will be no more reports to be filed with OSHA (the Occupational Safety and Health Administration). The factories won’t have to be retrofitted for handicapped workers.

Union organizers will no longer be able to recruit new members or call strikes. There will be no intervention by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB). There will be no pension plans, no healthcare plans, no family time off for pregnancies. Prayer breakrooms will be irrelevant and ObamaCare will not apply.

The revolution is going on without the “assistance” of government bureaucrats such as Schwab. It will continue to lower costs, translating into higher standards of living across the globe. It will free up workers to investigate other opportunities where their skills can be better used. Schools are already creating inexpensive (and sometimes free) educational programs to prepare them for these new opportunities.

This is part of the “creative destruction” inherent in market economies spelled out years ago by Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter. Alternatively called “Schumpeter’s Gale," the winds of change blowing across the globe now known as the Fourth Industrial Revolution will leave statists and government employees with precious little to do. They will have few options left but to find real work in the real world, rather than hoping to ride the weakening wave of internationalism and collectivism. In a word, robots
are making Davos and Schwab increasingly irrelevant.

http://www.thenewamerican.com/econo...ina-causing-heartburn-at-world-economic-forum

 

[Jlaw]

So Schwab, educated at Harvard and a former member of the steering committee of the Bilderberg Group

Beware of this guy. Am I correct @Götterdämmerung

 

[kbd-raaf]

Widespread use of robotics is going to make for a very interesting future.

A very good video.

 

[somebozo]

Adoption of Robotic manufacturing means faster turn around times and the quality of made in China will vastly improve.

 

[cirr]

Chinese manufacturing hub on front lines of robot revolution

plantautomation-technology

Posted: 03 Mar 2016, 09:17

In Dongguan City, a dark, cobweb-filled workshop shows no signs of the activity it saw a year ago, when 650 workers polished mobile phone cases moving along 10 conveyor belts.

Today, the tasks are performed in the room next door by 60 robot arms. The mechanical limbs produce fewer duds and never get bored. Only 30 employees are needed to supervise the machines.

It was the first step for Everwin Precision Technology, which owns the plant, in replacing workers with machines, said company chairman Chen Qixing. The company aims to use 1,000 robotic arms to automate 80 percent of its manufacturing by 2017.

Everwin is among more than 1,000 manufacturers that have adopted automated helpers to reduce their heavy reliance on labor in Dongguan, a leading production base for garments and gadgets. The southern Chinese city in Guangdong province has been called the "world's factory" and is a barometer for the country's economic changes.

China is the world's largest market for industrial robots, accounting for a quarter of global sales, according to the International Federation of Robotics.

The move toward automation has seen a major government push. Intelligent manufacturing is the core of the country's "Made in China 2025" plan to upgrade industry, and robotics is also mentioned in the country's new five-year plan, which will guide national economic development for 2016-2020.

Cheaper, better

A government work report delivered to local legislators in late February said Dongguan aims to become a trailblazer of China's robotics industry and an advanced manufacturing base with global clout.

Since the 1980s, the city has become a center for contract manufacturing, churning out toys, clothing and electronics for overseas brands. However, it bore the brunt of the 2008 global financial crisis due to weakening competitiveness resulting from dependence on cheap labor and a lack of research and development.

In September 2014, pressured by a persistent labor crunch and surging wage bills, Dongguan started its push into automation, providing subsidies for manufacturers' "machine for man" programs.

Manufacturers are facing a shortage of 200,000 workers, even though the city's minimum salary doubled between 2010 and 2015.

Nationwide, the labor pool is shrinking. The working-age population between ages 16 and 59 was 4.87 million less in 2015 than the previous year, marking a drop for the fourth straight year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Former head of the bureau Ma Jiantang said the declining trend will continue until 2030.

In addition to saving on costs, automation is also crucial to boosting accuracy and quality, Chen said. The "new hands" have brought down the proportion of substandard products to 5 percent from 25 percent and more than doubled productivity, he said.

As of January, 1,032 Dongguan companies applied for government subsidies for industrial automation, while shouldering more than 10 billion yuan ($1.53 billion) for their automation programs, according to the city's economic and information technology bureau.

The manufacturers saw productivity up by 65 percent and costs down by about 10 percent on average, and their work force is expected to be trimmed by more than 71,000, said Liu Yuqing, the bureau's chief economist.

Increased automation helps relieve workers of repetitive, dangerous and onerous tasks, said the city's Party chief, Xu Jianhua.

The drive has buoyed the robotics industry in Dongguan. Last year, about 400 companies producing robots, with more than 55,000 employees, achieved output of 26 billion yuan. The number is expected to quadruple by 2020, a goal set in a directive issued by the local government to bolster the industry in January.

The document also announced measures to fund automation of cost-sensitive small and medium-sized manufacturers. The city wants 80 percent of its manufacturers to automate factory work by the end of 2018.

Job killers?

As workshops fill with robots, concerns have mounted about a shortage or jobs for humans. But in Dongguan, workers are safe for now.

A survey of manufacturers that have switched to automation showed that only about 20 percent of them resorted to layoffs, while some of the remaining have even hired more workers, said vice mayor He Yu.

Laid-off workers can easily find new jobs in other factories or the service sector, as job seekers in Dongguan get 1.2 offers on average, He said.

However, a sense of insecurity has grown among workers. In the past, many were spoiled by increasingly generous pay due to the labor shortage, and workers neglected to update their skills.

Chen Haibo, 28, is grateful that he secured a spot at an automation training program in early 2014. "I had three rounds of interviews. If I had not made it, I'm afraid I would be transporting bricks at a construction site right now," said the automation specialist at a Taiwan-invested plant.

The robot rivals have brought other changes to Dongguan's work force. Statistics from the city's employment authorities showed that the number of young and middle-aged workers last year saw an increase of 2.3 percent from 2014.

Among them, the number of those with a high school or higher education diploma was up 2 percent year-on-year, and the number of those with a vocational certificate was up nearly 10 percent.

Some manufacturers hope that industrial automation will help improve workers' abilities. "We're not talking about driving workers away. Our goal is to enable our staff to achieve higher efficiency with the assistance of robots," said Yuan Xiongbin, deputy general manager of Dongguan CAIC Winnerway Automobile Company.

The automaker has automated its production lines to support a 3.5-billion-yuan new energy vehicle program. It required the equipment supplier to offer training for all its employees.

Economics professor Luo Mingzhong said although automated manufacturing seems a distant worry for workers, given the labor shortage, training of workers deserves more attention because it can help maintain a stable job market and accelerate China's economic restructuring.

Creating a universal robot controller for Industrie 4.0

By: Aileen Jin | controleng | Posted: 03 Mar 2016, 08:51

China's robotics industry has gone through a major period of growth and prosperity thanks to the approval and implementation of policies such as "Intelligent manufacturing" and "Made in China 2025." In 2014, the Chinese industrial robot market became the largest in the world with more than 56,000 robots being sold and an overall industry growth of 54%.

Robots continue to become more sophisticated as intelligent controls, or the central nervous system, develop. The accuracy and stability of the robot's controller are key factors in influencing the robot's performance.

Li Guozhong (Vincent Li), the business development director for Advantech (China), discussed with Control Engineering China how the company is developing a robot controller designed to operate like an industrial PC (IPC).

"Some users who used the low-cost controller at the very start would find the accuracy and stability of such controller can't meet the requirements half a year later," Li said. Currently, robot controllers are mainly manufactured by nonChinese manufacturers, however, the "four biggest manufacturers" who dominate about half of the world sell their high-quality controllers with their robot systems rather than separately. Although more enterprises are starting to become engaged in robot manufacturing, they have to rely on others due to the lack of a universal controller.

Independent robot controller

Aimed at the demands of independent development of users, a robot controller is being designed for independent developers. It integrates a traditional robot controller into one PCI control card, which can be inserted into any IPC with a PCI interface; development runs in Microsoft Windows. This is designed to make the hardware layer function an open and extensible architecture. It can control industrial robots such as Delta, selective compliance assembly robot arms (SCARA), and 6-axis robots. The open hardware architecture and plug-and-play rapid development are designed to improve the working efficiency of users who need secondary development platforms and special flexible customizing functions.

Li said that when control functions are designed for a 6-axis robot, IPC with the robot controller will suffice. If the user wants to add a data collection function, data collection cards can be added.

If the user wants to add machine vision, one machine vision card can be added to the robot controller. The media board processor can control vision without consuming CPU capacity.

Li said that control system efficiency is improved substantially with a strong hardware design.

Help with integration

Knowledge about integration of the Internet of Things (IoT) and Industrie 4.0 helps in designing a robot controller, Li said.

Advantech acquired LNC in 2013, gaining expertise in control technology and precision machining. Applying that knowledge to robot control may make it easier for Advantech to integrate robots into factories.

"When robots appear in factories or the production line, it will not become an isolated island. We can integrate robots with the Internet of Things and Industrie 4.0 with a more complete plan from the very start," Li said. Advantech's IoT plans are reflected in controller integration and in vertical industries such as metalworking. Advantech also has entered into Industrie 4.0 memorandum of cooperation with Goodway Machine Corp., the largest machine tool plant in Taiwan.

Li said that by preassembling in new equipment or adding certain modules or software in the old equipment, Advantech upgraded Goodway equipment for end users to an Industrie 4.0 or Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) architecture, including uniform management and system monitoring. The experience with Goodway is helping Advantech launch an Industrie 4.0 solution to meet the needs of users in the field of metalworking.

Creating a universal robot controller for Industrie 4.0 - OFweek News

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Robots?!

A survey of manufacturers that have switched to automation showed that only about 20 percent of them resorted to layoffs, while some of the remaining have even hired more workers, said vice mayor He Yu.

Laid-off workers can easily find new jobs in other factories or the service sector, as job seekers in Dongguan get 1.2 offers on average, He said.

This is important. The robotics sector doesn't just replace jobs, it also creates new jobs. Higher skilled and higher paid jobs in fact.

 

[Abacin]

In the era of robots, uneducated population will just like animals. If they are lucky in countries with good benefits, they will be treated as pets; if they are unlucky in poor countries, they will be treated as wild animals. Robots mean disasters to countries who do not actively pursuing the education of their citizens.

You will also see more and more fences between countries. The fences for uneducated population.

A country's labor force will only be measured by the educated people. For those countries with large population but low education to become world manufacturing powers, it will be a forever dream.

 

[onebyone]

Chinese technology giant Huawei is preparing for a world where people live forever, dead relatives linger on in computers and robots try to kill humans.

Huawei is best known as one of the world's largest producers of broadband network equipment and smartphones. But Kevin Ho, president of its handset product line, told the CES Asia conference in Shanghai on Wednesday the company used science fiction movies like "The Matrix" to envision future trends and new business ideas.

“Hunger, poverty, disease or even death may not be a problem by 2035, or 25 years from now,” he said. “In the future you may be able to purchase computing capacity to serve as a surrogate, to pass the baton from the physical world to the digital world.”


He described a future where children could use apps like WeChat to interact with dead grandparents, thanks to the ability to download human consciousness into computers. All of these technologies would require huge amounts of data storage, which in turn could generate business for Huawei, he added.

Ho also referred to a scene in "The Matrix" where a character downloads the ability to fly a helicopter.

“That kind of data download volume exceeds current levels,” he said. “In the future storage will need to exceed 15,000 Zettabytes so this is a huge increase.”

Post-Human Society
In Silicon Valley, high-tech companies like Google have discussed long-term planning for a post-human society, while Calico and venture capitalist Peter Thiel have both raised the prospect of immortality. SpaceX founder Elon Musk has long held the goal of transporting humanity to colonies on other planets.


But it is rare for established Chinese technology firms like Huawei to make business preparations based on the intangible possibilities facing the species. Ho said science fiction films helped spur his team to consider new product lines.

“A lot of science fiction has prompted me to have this type of thinking – in science fiction we’ve seen some terrible worlds where technology destroys human society,” he said. Ho described a film in which a character — apparently an AI persona — absorbs ideas from books then launches an attack on humanity. “There’s a very interesting film where Mr Wong has a task of downloading books, he also has a task of printing books and later he kills human beings. Therefore we need better safety technology.

“We need authentication, better tech protection and remote defense – we are developing all of these now.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...bot-overlords-and-communication-with-the-dead