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Israel's unlikely Arab alliance key to countering threat of Iran
Israel, Bahrain and the UAE have begun to form a Nato-like alliance since normalising relations
www.telegraph.co.uk
Israel's unlikely Arab alliance key to countering threat of Iran
Israel, Bahrain and the UAE have begun to form a Nato-like alliance since normalising relations
By James Rothwell Jerusalem
25 December 2021 • 12:52pm
It was the moment that defined an historic new security pact in the Middle East.
Meeting for the first time in Abu Dhabi, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed was seen whispering in the ear of Naftali Bennett, Israel's new prime minister.
The historic meeting between an Israeli and Emitati leader came roughly a year after the signing of the Abraham Accords, the treaty which normalised relations between the two countries.
Both men are deeply concerned about growing Iranian influence in the region, while Israel regards the regime's nuclear programme as an existential threat.
And while there was no public mention of Iran during their summit, it is hard to believe that it did not crop up in private conversation.
In response to the nuclear threat, Israel has ramped up military exercises with Western allies this year, including the RAF, in a clear display of force against the Islamic Republic.
But unlike previous drills, 2021 saw unprecedented attendance by the United Arab Emirates as well as Bahrain, also a signatory of the Abraham Accords.
Both countries upended decades of foreign policy in the Arab world last year by embracing the Jewish state before the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was resolved.
And as a direct result of those accords, analysts say, the three countries have been able to form a new regional security alliance in the spirit of a Middle Eastern Nato.
During one November exercise involving US, Israeli, Emirati and Bahraini naval forces in the Red Sea, Israeli officers met face-to-face with their Gulf counterparts for the first time.
The drill, led by the US Navy's 5th Fleet, focused on "visit, board, search and seizure tactics," and Israeli naval commanders described it as an "exciting" moment that opened the door to much deeper security cooperation in 2022.
At the time, an Israeli defence official said the exercise was designed to "counter Iran's aggression," notably the deadly drone strike on the Mercer Street oil tanker over the summer, which killed a UK citizen and a Romanian citizen.
"[This was] a brutal terror act - we have to guard the sea and make it a safe place," they said.
Separately, the United Arab Emirates sent its commander of the air force, Ibrahim Nasser Muhammed al-Alawi, to observe Israel's bi-annual Blue Flag exercise in October.
Israel hailed the aerial drill as the largest ever to be held by the Jewish state, with more than 70 fighter jets and 1,500 personnel taking part.
A Hellenic air force F-16 fighter lands during the "Blue Flag" multinational air defence exercise at the Ovda air force base, north of the Israeli city of Eilat, in October
Photographs of the exercise showed the Emirati commander inspecting Israeli forces - an unusual sight in a region where Arab states generally prefer to meet Israeli officials behind closed doors.
Tensions between Iran and Israel have soared this year over the Iran nuclear deal, which Western leaders have been trying to revive via talks in Vienna with Tehran which have so far proven fruitless.
Iran has consistently denied that it is building nuclear weapons and insists the programme is peaceful.
Israel vehemently opposes a return to the Obama-era nuclear deal, which lifted sanctions on Iran in return for curbs on its nuclear programme.
The two countries are locked in an escalating "shadow war" in which they have been accused of attacking each others' ships in the Gulf region.
As fighter jets tore across the sky above the Mediterranean this summer, Israeli government rhetoric continued to escalate, with weekly threats of a unilateral strike on Iran's nuclear programme.
Mr Bennett, the Israel prime minister, has said he is ready to "act alone" against the Islamic Republic, while his government has reportedly set aside a $1.5bn (£1.1bn) war chest for military action.
Earlier in December, it emerged that Israel was preparing for a major exercise in the Spring that would simulate an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Dozens of Israeli air force aircraft, including the F-15, F-35, and F-16 fighter jets will be involved, officials said.
However, one leading expert on the Iran-Israel conflict said he was sceptical about the prospect of Israel resorting to open warfare.
"On a personal level, I am doubtful. If Israel wants to do something it will be clandestine, behind the scenes," said Danny Citrinowicz, the former head of the Iran branch of Israel's military intelligence unit.
He added that if Israel did launch an overt attack, "then they will find themselves in a regional war with the Iranian network from the Houthis to Hizbollah.
Mr Citrinowicz also said that the UAE was reluctant to back any action that would jeopardise its own relationship with Iran, which is more delicate than Israel's as it includes diplomatic channels.
"On Israel's behalf the most important thing is using these visits [to Gulf states] to show Iran that we have a military option, not just an Israeli one, but with other partners," he said.
"It's different from the UAE perspective, they want to show Iran that they want to defuse the situation by economic cooperation but are also preserving their relationship with Israel."
A senior Emirati security adviser made a rare visit to Iran earlier in December, which suggests that the UAE will continue to rely on a "two-track" approach of military exercises with Israel and behind-the-scenes diplomacy next year.
As 2022 approaches, there is speculation that Saudi Arabia, the main power player in the Gulf, could be preparing to take the plunge and also normalise relations with Israel.
However, in public, the Kingdom continues to insist that this will only take place after the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with its capital in East Jerusalem.