I am not denying for even a moment that the Soviets invaded Afghanistan to install and prop-up a puppet regime. My contention was only confined to the canard that was spread about the Soviet desire for access to the Arabian Sea or "Garam Pani". That was militarily unsustainable. Any half-way decent General would be able to fathom that; even a logically thinking Armchair General would understand that. ..............
Interesting debate. My POV is closer to the Pakistanis on this one.
First, let's talk about the military plan to invade Pakistan to reach the fabled warm water ports. You can say today, as have some others over the past few years, that a Soviet invasion of Pakistan was "militarily unsustainable".
I say that hindsight vision is 20:20. It may be obvious now, but at the time of the Afghanistan invasion, no one I know of had definite insights into Soviet weaknesses. Soviet economic, political and military weaknesses became apparent and 'logical' later on with the fall of communism. At the time, they were shrouded in a veil that projected strength as much as it hid any weaknesses. At the time, they were a military juggernaut, that had not hesitated to lead armies into other nations over the decades.
Second, within the context of the Cold War, access to "warm waters" does not necessarily mean a war or an invasion of Pakistan. The Cold War was played out mostly through influence in client states. Thus the Soviets and USA struggled in Latin America, in Asia, in Africa to maintain regional dominance- hence the plots and counter plots, coups, murders and assassinations. So it isn't necessary that the Soviets would invade Pakistan soon after Afghanistan.
Instead, once established in Afghanistan, Pakistan would find a hostile power right in its backyard, and one already to its front (India). From there on the Soviet plan would have been in a direct to
influence, suborn and undermine American interests in Pakistan. It is not unfeasible to assume that one outcome could be that Pakistan under pressure and economic blandishments could have become a client state of the USSR, or at least a neutral, and then the communists would then have access to warm waters without having to fire a shot. This was a typical Cold War play, played over decades, not the next few years and or wars.
Finally, Armies also react to capabilities, not intentions. Who knows what the Soviet intentions were a the time? And without significant insights into Soviet capabilities, the Pakistan Army perforce had to assume the worst. How would we react if China invaded and occupied Bangladesh, and then said it was only 'trying to support the Bangladeshi people'?
