Ishaq Dar Claims forex reserves stand at $10b

[TigerOfMysore]

My Pkr RDA shows same balance as few months ago. No changes.
Its fine.
Even my local pkr account is ok, nothing bad.

Whats with the fearmongering and sensationalism ???

Balance is not the issue. Try transferring that money aboard. Or try to withdraw in Dollars. You'll get the answer. Balance on a dashboard means nothing. Try withdrawing the money and you'll see the reality.

Balance on an account dashboard does not mean the bank has that money in a vault. Based upon a system called Fractional Banking, banks are only required to keep a small percentage of your money readily available. Rest they invest and make money off. In the case of depositor dollars given the shortage of dollars, those dollars are not being invested into dollar denominated assets. Instead to manage our CAD we are using up dollars faster than we are making them or getting them as deposits (most likely giving them to the government which is likely borrowing them from the State Bank). Which means not only are we seeing the fractional reserve pressure which is normal, we are also seeing pure and simple shortfall of dollars.

This means Banks will not have the dollars to cover their deposits. Also given the spot trade price versus the control price, that differential is getting wider. And someone will have to take that hit. Given the Government is likely the borrower they should take the hit, but they wont or cannot (that is what they think). But in reality the government will have no option. This means a massive supply demand offset. Which means if the government tries to make dollar needs whole, they'll need to free-float the currency. If they do that, you get a currency crisis like what happened in Far East Asia.

This means our import bill goes through the roof. Which make borrowing even more important. And you then get caught in a vicious cycle, or spiraling debt - either that or famine. Your currency becomes worthless and you basically become a bankrupt nation. That is when the foreign debt holders ask for your assets. Like your mineral resources (Reko Dig), coal deposits, your ports, basing rights, road tolls etc etc. And essential without a bullet being fired, you have essentially lost your sovereignty.

That my friends is the near term future of Pakistan.

 

[Olympus81]

News from Karachi gold markets is that people have accelerated buying gold to get rid of the Rs.

The gold shops usually sell the gold and get rid of the Rs to buy more gold themselves. Basically noone wants to expose themselves with Rs in their hands.

Few days and gold stocks will deplete. Suggest anyone who can’t get their hands to dollars just go and buy gold until it’s available.

 

[epebble]

Balance is not the issue. Try transferring that money aboard. Or try to withdraw in Dollars. You'll get the answer. Balance on a dashboard means nothing. Try withdrawing the money and you'll see the reality.

You can try a simple experiment. You don't have to withdraw. Just call the bank and ask if you can present a cheque for USD10,000 for cash. If they say no problem, fine. If they say, it depends ..... on Dollar supplies ... SBP instructions .... etc., you know the money is gone.

 

[Olympus81]

My Pkr RDA shows same balance as few months ago. No changes.
Its fine.
Even my local pkr account is ok, nothing bad.

Whats with the fearmongering and sensationalism ???

I was talking about accumulated RDA position as of today compared to few months ago.

 

[epebble]

News from Karachi gold markets is that people have accelerated buying gold to get rid of the Rs.

The gold shops usually sell the gold and get rid of the Rs to buy more gold themselves. Basically noone wants to expose themselves with Rs in their hands.

Few days and gold stocks will deplete. Suggest anyone who can’t get their hands to dollars just go and buy gold until it’s available.

This is a well-known phenomenon in economics. It is called Gresham's law: "Bad money drives good money out of circulation". PKR is now 'Bad money'; nobody wants to be left holding the bag.

Gresham's law - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Olympus81]

My hunch is, FCA and RDA will be converted to Pak Rs.

Just my opinion.

 

[Abdul Rehman Majeed]

News from Karachi gold markets is that people have accelerated buying gold to get rid of the Rs.

The gold shops usually sell the gold and get rid of the Rs to buy more gold themselves. Basically noone wants to expose themselves with Rs in their hands.

Few days and gold stocks will deplete. Suggest anyone who can’t get their hands to dollars just go and buy gold until it’s available.

Just replace PKR with gold as the nation's currency.

 

[villageidiot]

Oh I guess you're a PMLN fan? When did you hit your head as a kid? Are you one of those...how do they call them,Patwaris? Youthias? Chotyas? I don't know Urdu :S

what do you know, guys. Foinikas is a fellow youthia, except he is a greek youthia.

P.S. Youthia is a portmanteau for youth (imran khan target audience) and chutia (a curse word. means moron, to put if politely). That's what the patwaris call us.

Patwaris are a low level government functionary in the land revenue department infamous for their corrupt practices. PMLN supporters are called patwaris for obvious reasons i.e. their undying support for one of or perhaps the most corrupt politician (among the major ones) Nawaz sharif.

Active in politics or he just refuses to step down and go in retirement?

he has retired. by "active", @COOKie LOOkie.... meant that his underlings are still going hard against IK and no significant change has been witnessed in the army's hatred for IK.
e.g. IK's party legislators are still getting contacted by them, being told not to vote for IK's chief minister in punjab in a vote of confidence.

the establishment is trying to engineer a revival of the MQM by trying to piece together multiple MQM factions, to give PTI tough opposition in karachi.

etc etc

 

[Foinikas]

atwaris are a low level government functionary in the land revenue department infamous for their corrupt practices. PMLN supporters are called patwaris for obvious reasons i.e. their undying support for one of or perhaps the most corrupt politician (among the major ones) Nawaz sharif.

I remembered the Patwaris were some kind of corrupt bureaucrats,synonymous with the era before Imran Khan. If I'm not mistaken of course.

I know the "choty",so I had an idea about the "chotiya"

 

[CLUMSY]

This guy looks like squash from plants vs zombies

 

[Baghial]

Are u enjoying the mehngai and an almost bankrupt Pakistan under ur preferred chores(PDM)?

Do u patwaris have an iota of sense? Or r u guys just born ghaddars? Do u not care for the country? Do u not see what the morons of PMLN, PPPP, etc. have done to the country in roughly 30 years that they have had the power? U r barking at someone who had 3 years in power vs those who did damage for 30 years.

U deserve this mehngai bcuz u support these corrupt leaders...however it's more likely that the reason u support these morons is bcuz u stand to gain financially by supporting them...like some cushy job based on "sifarish"(likely from the same goons ruling the country). So it's not u who is truly suffering...it's just the average poor person. If that's the case...u should be embarrassed

yes am enjoying the chaos.

 

[Clutch]

if imr-ran khan and his newton gang can get away with lies, which the idiots believe,
why on eart would the cocaine addict utter a word of truth,
back in his days of govt, immi the dim. changed 3 finance ministers, without improving any shred of governance,

his only agenda- given to him by his jew -goldsmiths -rothchilds gang is to make sure pakistan is economicaly bankrupt- at which he did a great job- thanks for pindi boys who are brothers in crime of tabee fraudia

Whataboutism sucks... Imran Khan is the best. Mullah PDM Diesel and Mujra Bilawal union is an abomination.

 

[PakFactor]

Balance is not the issue. Try transferring that money aboard. Or try to withdraw in Dollars. You'll get the answer. Balance on a dashboard means nothing. Try withdrawing the money and you'll see the reality.

Balance on an account dashboard does not mean the bank has that money in a vault. Based upon a system called Fractional Banking, banks are only required to keep a small percentage of your money readily available. Rest they invest and make money off. In the case of depositor dollars given the shortage of dollars, those dollars are not being invested into dollar denominated assets. Instead to manage our CAD we are using up dollars faster than we are making them or getting them as deposits (most likely giving them to the government which is likely borrowing them from the State Bank). Which means not only are we seeing the fractional reserve pressure which is normal, we are also seeing pure and simple shortfall of dollars.

This means Banks will not have the dollars to cover their deposits. Also given the spot trade price versus the control price, that differential is getting wider. And someone will have to take that hit. Given the Government is likely the borrower they should take the hit, but they wont or cannot (that is what they think). But in reality the government will have no option. This means a massive supply demand offset. Which means if the government tries to make dollar needs whole, they'll need to free-float the currency. If they do that, you get a currency crisis like what happened in Far East Asia.

This means our import bill goes through the roof. Which make borrowing even more important. And you then get caught in a vicious cycle, or spiraling debt - either that or famine. Your currency becomes worthless and you basically become a bankrupt nation. That is when the foreign debt holders ask for your assets. Like your mineral resources (Reko Dig), coal deposits, your ports, basing rights, road tolls etc etc. And essential without a bullet being fired, you have essentially lost your sovereignty.

That my friends is the near term future of Pakistan.

Thank you! Hopefully, you've explained it in a way even a common man should understand. But knowing this country, even the basic fly over its head.

 

[epebble]

Just replace PKR with gold as the nation's currency.

SBP has only 773 billion Rupees of gold reserve (about 3 billion USD). That is not enough to replace bank notes in circulation, which is about 8 trillion. But that suggestion gives an idea: In extreme difficulty, that gold can be pledged or sold to get foreign currency for imports.

https://www.sbp.org.pk/reports/annual/arF22/Vol-1/AFS-2022-eng.pdf

 

[maithil]

IMF is not budging..

Talks with IMF end without ‘breakthrough’​