Is the Crackdown in Iran the Start of a Fresh Tyranny?

[Siavash]

It is! But by the will of the people it will fail and backfire! We will see! Khameneie so called "Infiltration" campaign is something out of the old book which will not succeed at this era! Force willing!

http://www.newsweek.com/crackdown-iran-start-fresh-tyranny-395994

 

[Talwar e Pakistan]

It is! But by the will of the people it will fail and backfire! We will see! Khameneie so called "Infiltration" campaign is something out of the old book which will not succeed at this era! Force willing!

http://www.newsweek.com/crackdown-iran-start-fresh-tyranny-395994

Most people like the government...

 

[Siavash]

Most people like the government...

Where do you get your information regarding that? By the way in Iran there are multiple power sources and people differensiate it clearly. They are very informed and clever and also pragmatic. They see Rouhani Government and they see Khamaneie and they also see part of IRGC gang and conservatist and also they see reformers that are partially in agreement with Rouhani and they also see opposition.

People agree with the Rouhani faction at least 45% and oppose the Khameneie and those under his wing by at least 60% or more based on recent presidential public vote with greater than 70% participation.

Your assumption is not correct on this regard. By the way it is not about the government but factions in the regime that even under Velayate faghih wish more power and absolute power. People do not like to be limited not the opposition nor the reformers and pro government and that is what happening now under the new move by Khameneie and his gang.

 

[mohsen]

so now some people from west again want to predict our fall !
well, there is no law against imaginations.
but, what will fall is Rohani and his liberal ideology, God willing.

 

[Rajaraja Chola]

Iranian people are really smart and hardworking. Even Women's are educated and developed. But its time they ward of the theology, preventing multiple layers of power. President should be the one making decisions and not a Supreme Leader. And partial withdrawal of compulsory Islamic customs would be welcome

 

[Siavash]

Iranian people are really smart and hardworking. Even Women's are educated and developed. But its time they ward of the theology, preventing multiple layers of power. President should be the one making decisions and not a Supreme Leader. And partial withdrawal of compulsory Islamic customs would be welcome

Absolutely, President is also entangled in the paradox of the complex system. He is an educated person himself. Definitely understands the paradox currently happening in the Iranian system with the supreme leader. He raised his voice against the current crack down and misusing the "infiltration" concept by the leader's gang and parts of IRGC. I don't think he could voice his opposition to the crack down any harder at the moment without loosing the opportunity to serve. People are knowing more an more about the hypocrisy and the role of supreme leader and IRGC in it as it goes. I don't think they can win very much.

The Parliamentary election is near and the hardliners are trying in two directions to gain the most. 1- Banning and taking out opposition in any way even under the name of infiltrators of the west or as leader says Liberals 2- trying in the last days of parliament to pass some civilized laws

If they leave the society and the reformers in place and allow them to participate, they know they will lose the majority that they have in the Parliament and God knows what will happen! Hardliners got this majority when people mostly boycotted the elections and participation was very low and some go in the parliament with 3% of the votes. They know people will not do this mistake again and would get the most from what they have and increase their pressure as well. They know they have no chance against well educated people who want their voice heard!

They have no power against the majority if it materializes even their 25% well prepared and ready to die fans! People are wise and don't want trouble at the moment when ISIS is at the doors and country needs to unite but it may change if the hardliners misuse the situation and think they can silence and kidnap and torture their way forward.

 

[SOHEIL]

@Siavash

 

[Indika]

Iran has a lot of potential to be a great regional power but wonder why they spend so much effort putting themselves down. With excellent manpower, natural resources combined they can easily raise the living standards and grow the economy. Other countries with worse quality manpower are doing good in the region.

 

[LeGenD]

I thought that majority of the Iranians were loyal to their supreme leader Ayatollah Khomeini on spiritual grounds? Iranian President is just an external face to give an impression to the world that Iranians are democratic people. In reality, he is a powerless stooge of the supreme leader.

There might be secular elements in Iran but they are not powerful at the moment.

 

[Siavash]

@Siavash

Had some thanks! Do you like some I have Starbucks beans and a nice grinder I can make you some. Costco delicious chocolate cake as well. Let me know if you drop by You are more than welcome!

I thought that majority of the Iranians were loyal to their supreme leader Ayatollah Khomeini on spiritual grounds? Iranian President is just an external face to deceive the world into thinking that Iranians are democratic people.

There might be secular elements in Iran but they are not powerful.

The recent presidential polls doesn't agree that his spiritual base is that strong. Many devoted Shia prefer non political Marja to the political ones as they are not sure if it is right if religious matters are politicized. At the time of Khomeini it was Khoie and at the time of Khameneie many inside Iran and specially ayatollah Sistani in Iraq was refered to. Regarding Khamaneie being a supreme clergy (Ayatollah ol Ozma) there has been issues since the death of Mr. Khomeini. He was not considered Highest authority in religious affairs (Marja) right after the death and many remained on Khomeini doctrine (Can do that if they want on older rulings). He was issued the supreme status after a while. Anyway, Definitely he is a well studied guy both in religious affairs and literature and traditional Music and has his followers on that regard but his political stance is a turn off for many devoted Shia's. For example Zarif (current foreign minister family) was a devoted Muslim but his father didn't like to be involved into politics and sent him to USA. Many devoted Merchants and Bazaris as to say had the same stance and don't like to mix religion with politics.

There are several other Marja (supreme Ayatollahs that can issue Fatwa) higher than him that divide the spiritual base. I believe his base should be at most 25% of the Shia if we think 100% of the Iranian population are devoted Shia and care about this which is debatable and the statistics is much lower than that. I don't have concrete proof for that and base mu estimation on recent polls and public reaction on different topics.

Regarding secular elements in Iran. More of the young generation do not like religious affairs mixed with their life but there is no ideology to replace it. Today, the religious aspect of any movement is not spoken of, one reason may be due to crack down or because there is no movement brushing away religion entirely or is willing to clearly say his position regarding that. By defining their human rights values many automatically are against some Islamic values already in place but it stops there and no clear borders are defined in movements that I see.

I think our society is far from eliminating religion from its day to day life and all the movements have to endure it somehow and define their way in between its red lines. I see many reformist activists that are clearly devoted Muslims.

 

[Aramagedon]

 

[mohsen]

Iranian people are really smart and hardworking. Even Women's are educated and developed. But its time they ward of the theology, preventing multiple layers of power. President should be the one making decisions and not a Supreme Leader. And partial withdrawal of compulsory Islamic customs would be welcome

Those smart people have made a choice. and that choice was Islamic Republic, To follow the God's orders, not man's.

 

[Siavash]

Those smart people have made a choice. and that choice was Islamic Republic, To follow the God's orders, not man's.

March 1979, 98% voted yes to a ballot saying (Islamic Republic Yes or No) No one knew what this republic would look like nor there was any definition. Mr. Khomeini had given speeches how it would look like but it looked more like Alice in the wonderland than a real system. It was looking like anything after the vote than a real Republic which the political world could relate to and definitely it didn't materialize after 35 years into one.

if hypothetically accept you are right, and if we think the people are still as smart as they were if not smarter then from Islamic regime point of view there should be no problem for another referendum to see if the people will vote the same after 36 years of a regime. But you see the councils appointed do not trust the same smart people to choose whom they please and vet them politically. So no my dear, neither that 98% was right nor what you are saying and the proof is the system in place that is being safe guarded in fear of change.

 

[Aramagedon]

March 1979, 98% voted yes to a ballot saying (Islamic Republic Yes or No) No one knew what this republic would look like nor there was any definition. Mr. Khomeini had given speeches how it would look like but it looked more like Alice in the wonderland than a real system. It was looking like anything after the vote than a real Republic which the political world could relate to and definitely it didn't materialize after 35 years into one.

if hypothetically accept you are right, and if we think the people are still as smart as they were if not smarter then from Islamic regime point of view there should be no problem for another referendum to see if the people will vote the same after 36 years of a regime. But you see the councils appointed do not trust the same smart people to choose whom they please and vet them politically. So no my dear, neither that 98% was right nor what you are saying and the proof is the system in place that is being safe guarded in fear of change.

I am not in love with Islamic republic but I like them.

85% of Iranians participated in presidential election in 2009 and 76% in 2013. If people they didn't love IR they wouldn't participated in elections.
We have the highest voter turnout in the world. In European countries voter turnout is only 30 - 40%.

 

[Siavash]

I am not in love with Islamic republic but I like them.

85% of Iranians participate in presidential election in 2009 and 76% in 2013. If people they didn't love IR they wouldn't participate in elections.
We have the highest voter turnout in the world. In European countries voter turnout is only 30 - 40%.

I don't put it as love. I think in 2013 people mobilized to elect the candidate that was more inline with what they want and less inline with what Supreme leader wanted. The social media organized the voters and and only a week before the voting they they decided to hugely participate. If you remember or agree, there was a huge debate whether they would participate and even on those families that were very much against the regime some youngsters were arguing in favor of participating and electing the ones accepted by reformist.

I myself was against voting at all but confess, that I was wrong and the pragmatic way the people of Iran decided what to do was the correct approach given the circumstances. It was a lesson for me that if you give up the field when as small as they have made it to be you don't earn anything and would lose what you have. If I could with a peaceful civil disobedience topple the leadership I would but short of that reform from within is what people did and they were successful so far and in my opinion it had nothing to do with loving the regime.

In my opinion the regime is very complex and like any other complex system there is no hate of whole or love of all. You hate special concepts and know if those removed the process will make it more democratic and move towards the right direction. The system currently is such that it can grow into a Fascistic state very easily if it is not resisted. There should be no way a system can manipulate itself into one at any point.