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Is Pakistan facing bankruptcy?

Markets optimistic as Pakistan 'breaks IMF begging bowl forever'
By Farhan Bokhari in Islamabad

Published: November 22 2004 02:00 | Last updated: November 22 2004 02:00

Pakistan's business leaders expect the Karachi stock market to rise today, driven by the decision of Shaukat Aziz, prime minister, to end ahead of schedule the country's loan programme with the International Monetary Fund.

"The begging bowl has been broken forever," said Mr Aziz on Friday evening as he announced that Pakistan had declined the last two tranches from the fund of $260m (€199.3m, £139.9m), due to be paid this month. The move ends a three-year loan programme with the IMF of $1.52bn, scheduled to end in December.

In measures aimed at lifting the Pakistani economy, Mr Aziz also removed a two-year freeze on recruitment in government services and ordered the creation of courts to resolve business disputes more quickly. .

"These measures have created a lot of optimism. There's bound to be a positive reaction across the board," said S.M. Muneer, former chairman of the Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

Mr Muneer said many business people expected the economy to get a boost as the country was freed of IMF loan conditions that forced the government to cut spending.

The Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry - the largest national business body - said: "New opportunities for economic growth are likely to come up. There is a new emphasis on taking the economy forward."

Western economists warned that Pakistan's successful exit from the IMF programme must be followed by continued efforts from the government to reduce losses in the public sector, especially in the Water and Power Development Authority and the Karachi Electricity Supply Corporation.

"Pakistan's economic challenges have not ended," said a Washington-based economist. "A number of reforms still have to be put in place."

Pakistan signed a three-year loan programme with the IMF in 2001 after being on the brink of default following its maiden nuclear tests in May 1998. Those tests triggered economic sanctions from a number of industrialised nations and forced the government to freeze private deposits of about $11bn in onshore foreign currency accounts.

But in the past three years Pakistan's balance of payments position has improved significantly. The government's liquid foreign currency reserves have risen to more than $12bn, the equivalent of 10-11 months of imports.

The improvement in large measure is due to expatriate Pakistanis using regular banks to send funds home rather than the underground networks such as the hawala system.

FT.com / World - Markets optimistic as Pakistan 'breaks IMF begging bowl forever'

Shaukat Tareen leaves for US

Wednesday, October 08, 2008 ISLAMABAD: Advisor to Prime Minster on Finance Shaukat Tareen Wednesday left for Washington on a ten-day official visit. During his visit, he will meet the officials of World Bank and International Monitoring Fund (IMF).

It is his first foreign visit after assuming the charge as Advisor to PM on Finance, Tareen is accompanied by a high level delegation comprising Governor State Bank of Pakistan Dr Shamshad Akhtar, Secretary Finance and Economic Affairs Divisions.

During his different meetings abroad, he would discuss the borrowing facilities for the country and the agenda of the Friends of Pakistan meeting to be held in Abu Dhabi next month.

Shaukat Tareen leaves for US

Zardari expects world to come up with $100bn

NEW YORK, Oct 4: Citing the threat posed by militants along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border and the possible economic meltdown, President Asif Ali Zardari has asked the international community to give Pakistan $100 billion in grant to ensure the country’s survival.

“I need your help, if we fall, if we can’t do it, you can’t do it,” Mr Zardari repeatedly said during an interview with Wall Street Journal’s columnist Brent Stephens, published on Saturday.

In the interview, Mr Zardari also called for a broader free trade agreement with India and said: “India has never been a threat to Pakistan.

“I, for one, and our democratic government is not scared of Indian influence abroad.”

Stephens said in his column that Mr Zardari spoke of the militant groups operating in occupied Kashmir as “terrorists”, adding that he had no objection to the India-US nuclear cooperation pact so long as Islamabad was treated “at par” with New Delhi.

“Why would we begrudge the largest democracy in the world getting friendly with one of the oldest democracies in the world?”

On Mr Zardari’s request for $100 billion in grant, Stephens says that he “has a simple and powerful argument to make that the world cannot allow his government to fail – not when it’s becoming increasingly plausible that Pakistan itself, with its stockpile of as many as 200 nuclear warheads, could be toppled by Al Qaeda and its allies”.

In asking the international community for infusion of $100 billion into Pakistan’s economy, Stephens said Zardari was keen to insist that it not be described as aid.

“Aid is proven through the researches of the World Bank . . . (to be) bad for a country,” Zardari told WSJ. “I’m looking for temporary relief for my budgetary support and cash for my treasury which does not need to be spent by me.

“It is not something I want to spend. But (it) will stop the

(outflow) of my capital every time there is a bomb. . . . In this situation, how do I create capital confidence, how do I create businessmen’s confidence?”

On US-Pakistan differences to conduct the war on terror, Mr Zardari was anxious to downplay any differences with the US. “I am not going to fall for this position that it’s an unpopular thing to be an American friend. I am an American friend,” Zardari said time and again.

On the incident last month in which Pakistani troops allegedly fired at US aircraft, Zardari told WSJ: “It was merely an incident, and while incidents do happen, they are not important.”

He goes off the record to describe sensitive military subjects, but acknowledges that the US is carrying out Predator missile strikes on Pakistani soil with his government’s consent. “We have an understanding, in the sense that we’re going after an enemy together.”

Zardari, Stephens maintained, also conceded “the problem that had bedevilled past efforts at US-Pakistani cooperation, particularly in intelligence sharing: the widely held suspicion that Pakistani intelligence services continue to cooperate with, and even arm, the Taliban.”

“You know, you keep an uglier alternative around so that you may not be asked to leave,” he says in reference to charges that former president Pervez Musharraf was not sincere in fighting militancy.

Mr Zardari refuses to go into detail other than to say he “solved the problem”.

Mr Zardari expressed a hope that, with the intelligence problem out of the way, a new era of cooperation can open up with the US. “We want to be able to share [US] intelligence,” he told WSJ. “We need helicopters, we need night goggles, we need equipment of that sort.”

He said there was a need for precision and finesse in fighting militants, rather than large-scale military force. “My eventual concept is that we should be taking them on as they are, as criminals.”

Of Osama bin Laden, Zardari said: “The minute I make anybody my enemy, he becomes as big as I am.”

Referring to reports that Pakistan has deployed F-16s against militants in tribal areas in part because the army’s own troops have been routinely routed in ground fighting, he said: “Their problems aren’t simply tactical. What kind of a joke is this that I cannot pay my security personnel more than the Talibs are paying?”

“Those terrorists are paying their soldiers 10,000 rupees; I’m paying seven or six thousand rupees.

“The effects of such a disparity are increasingly in evidence. The recent bombing of Islamabad’s Marriott hotel, in an area that is under particularly tight security controls, is a fresh reminder that Pakistan’s terrorist problem extends well beyond the tribal hinterlands,” Stephens argues in his concluding note.

Zardari expects world to come up with $100bn -DAWN - Top Stories; October 05, 2008
 
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ISLAMABAD, Oct 8 (APP): Advisor to Prime Minister on Finance Shaukat Tareen Wednesday said that notions about the bankruptcy of Pakistan are baseless and the government is neither going to seal bank lockers nor freezing foreign currency accounts. In an exclusive interview with APP after taking charge as Advisor to Prime Minister on Finance, Shaukat Tareen said the government would enhance the confidence of investors through concrete measures and alleviation of poverty would be among the topmost priorities.

He said the previous government maintained the artificial price of dollar at Rs62 and assured that the rupee would regain its value within four to six weeks.

The Advisor said that he would come up to the expectations of President Asif Ali Zardari who reposed confidence in his abilities and handed over this great responsibility.

Shaukat Tareen said the government would devise a special strategy to alleviate poverty from the country and would increase annual growth rate by promoting agriculture and industry, adding that special measures would be taken to promote our agricultural sector.

He said the new strategy would keep special focus on increasing national exports and decreasing imports by enhancing dependence on the domestic products to save more foreign reserves.

“We can afford decline in annual economic growth rate but not increase in national imports,” he added.

He said on his return from the US visit, he would help restore the confidence of the investors to assure them that the economic reforms would continue and no basic change would be made in the economic policies of the country.

He said not only the local, but also the foreign investors would be taken into confidence to establish the fact that the government is business-friendly.

“The government is striving to resolve all the issues confronting the local industry and it would welcome the positive suggestions and recommendation from the business community in this regard,” he added.

The Advisor said that Pakistan was not facing that financial crisis like some other countries because our banking system is on sound footing. However, there is lack of confidence and the major issue is the deficiency of the capital, which would be resolved through effective policies being formulated by the government.

Shaukat Tareen said the constant depreciation of the rupee value was the result of the wrong economic policies of the previous government, which he said, “maintained artificial parity of dollar between Rs60 to 62 which proved a suicide for national economy.”

He said the rumors in the market also depreciated the rupee value but hoped that the situation would come to normalcy within four to six weeks as rupee is regaining its value, adding that it seemed difficult that rupee-dollar parity comes to its old value.

Shaukat Tareen said the decreasing trend of oil prices in international market would bring positive effects in domestic market and reduce our import bill.

He said though there are some economic challenges confronting the country, the situation is not out of control and “I am sure that the situation would improve within few days.”
 
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Only after these companies bring in local production, you will see an increase in capable manpower, advanced technology, and better education made available at the university level. This is what happened in China, we were hoping it would happen with us. Once the manpower and education is available at the university level, we can finally start looking at R&D and perhaps entrepreneurship by our own.

Excellent analysis!

Further to add to what you wrote .... Musharraf had planned to open up since November 2006, Nine Engineering World Class Science and Technology Federal Universities by 2008 with foreign assistance & HEC.

The institutions of higher learning were to be established in collaboration with Italy, South Korea, Japan, France, Sweden, Netherlands, Germany, Austria and China. The Cost of building these Foreign Universities were to be above Rs 96.5 billion.

The Vice Chancellors, Heads of department, Professors and Faculty of the planned university were planned to be from these Foreign Universities; while the Examination system, Quality assurance followed and the Degree awarded were all planned to be from these Foreign Universities.

Musharraf had said in an interview, eloborating his VISION .... that he wanted these advance countries to OPEN universities in Pakistan, to EDUCATE & TRAIN our students and then open up their supporting programs factories & industries in our country. Those qualified students would be inducted & brain utilized locally. Later those manufactured items would be EXPORTED from Pakistan.

The Pakistan - China Engineering University HAS opened in Islamabad. But, I doubt the faculty will be Chinese - due to volatile situation.

Musharraf was a VISIONARY Leader! :pakistan:
 
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Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves rise $190 million to $8.32 billion: SBP

KARACHI (October 10 2008): Pakistan's foreign reserves rose $190 million to $8.32 billion in the week that ended on October 4 from the previous week, the central bank said on Thursday. The State Bank of Pakistan said its own reserves rose to $4.87 billion from $4.68 billion previously, while those held by commercial banks were flat at $3.45 billion.

The foreign exchange reserves hit an all-time high of $16.5 billion in October last year, but have been falling since due to weak economic fundamentals, political uncertainty and security concerns. Asian Development Bank (ADB) on September 30 approved a $500 million loan to help Pakistan address the impact of high fuel and food prices on its people and the economy.

The loan is be reflected in the latest figures. Analysts said the rise can also attributed to banks being closed from October 1 till October 4 for the Eid holiday, marking the end of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan. Pakistan needs up to $3 billion of foreign capital inflows to arrive quickly if it is to meet upcoming debt obligations.

The six-month-old civilian government, that has taken over from former army chief Pervez Musharraf, is banking on support from multilateral lenders and friendly governments. Sympathy for Pakistan's role as a frontline state in the war on terrorism should help it stave off a default, according to analysts, and potential donor governments are due to meet in Abu Dhabi in November.

The newly appointed finance advisor to the prime minister, Shaukat Tarin and central bank governor Shamshad Akhtar left late Wednesday to attend the annual International Monetary Fund (IMF) meeting in Washington on October 13, officials said, though the government has said it is not seeking an IMF support package.

Business Recorder [Pakistan's First Financial Daily]
 
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Banks import dollar bills to meet panic withdrawals

KARACHI (October 10 2008): Banks have imported a big consignment of cash US dollars in order to meet a sudden surge in panic withdrawals, according to well-placed banking and government sources. Unlike prior to 1998, banks now do not surrender their forex deposits to the State Bank of Pakistan and instead keep these funds abroad with corresponding banks or their head offices in case of foreign bank branches.

The question of freezing these deposits, therefore, does not arise. Bankers expect their clients' nervousness to end in the next couple of days as they can safely meet the clients needs. Meanwhile, the Pak rupee-dollar parity on the interbank market was stable with parity moving in a short band of Rs 79 to 79.30 per US dollar.

The end of the day rate was Rs 79.10/20 and for tomorrow value Rs 79.22/23 to a dollar. The downgrading of Pakistan risk resulted in a dip of Pak Euro bond trading. The February 2009 Sukuk was at 94 cents offer with no bids. 2016 maturing bonds at 43 cents, 2017 maturing papers 39/39 cents and 30-year bond maturing in 2036 was being offered at 33 cents.

The central bank rubbished the rumour that a portion of Pakistan forex reserves was invested in either the defunct Bear Stearns or Lehman Brothers and said that the entire reserves were in liquid form. There was a surge in withdrawal of Income Funds on the first day after the freeze of equity Mutual Funds but, the situation has reportedly improved yesterday.

In the open market Pak rupee-dollar parity was between Rs 80 and 81 to a dollar and 'A; rated exchange companies had drawn only $5 million from SBP while the central bank was asking them to take additional dollars to give to 'B' rated money changers as well to keep the market stable.

Business Recorder [Pakistan's First Financial Daily]
 
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No shortage of foreign currency in market: Ecap warns speculative buyers

KARACHI (October 10 2008): The Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP) has said that exchange companies, without any exception, have obtained millions of US dollars from State Bank of Pakistan. Hence there is no dearth or shortage of foreign currency in the market. Speculative buyers will not be benefited by their purchases, as the rate of US dollar is not going to escalate.

An ECAP press release issued here on Thursday said that the financial crises of the West would spill over to our country, which has led to speculative buying of US dollars and withdrawals from the banks. "This fear is unfounded and unrealistic as our banking system is on sound footing and there is no liquidity crunch."

To meet the demand of customers State Bank of Pakistan has offered out right sale of US dollars to all the exchange companies without any restriction of amount. This offer was made in a meeting chaired by the Executive Director of State Bank of Pakistan.

ECAP has set up a cell at its office. Customers, in case fail to acquire US dollars according to their needs or out of market rates are quoted to them, can contact at the following numbers: +92-21-2275342 - +92-21-2275344. The press release bears the signatures of Haji Haroon, President and Munaf Kalia, General Secretary, ECAP.-PR

Business Recorder [Pakistan's First Financial Daily]
 
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Financial crisis: Countries at risk of bankruptcy from Pakistan to Baltics

A string of countries face the risk of "going bust" as financial panic sweeps Asia, Eastern Europe, and Latin America, raising the spectre of a strategic crisis in some of the world's most dangerous spots.


By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

The Telegraph - October 10, 2008

Nuclear-armed Pakistan is bleeding foreign reserves at an alarming rate leading to fears that it could default on its loans.

There are mounting fears that Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Argentina could all now slide into a downward spiral towards bankruptcy, while western banks exposed to property bubble across Eastern Europe have seen their share price crushed.

The markets are pricing an 80pc risk that Ukraine will default, based on five-year credit default swaps (CDS) – an insurance policy on a country being able to pay its debts.

The country's banking system has begun to break down after years of torrid credit growth; its steel mills are shutting as demand collapses; and the political crisis is going from bad to worse.

President Viktor Yushchenko dissolved parliament this week in a dispute that risks bitter conflict with the country's Russian bloc. Diplomats fear Moscow could be drawn into the crisis – or even use it as a pretext to occupy territory in a replay of the Georgia invasion this summer.

Ukraine's government seized Prominvestbank this week, suspending payments to creditors. It closed the Kiev stock market, which has fallen 73pc this year.

Emerging market stocks have been tumbling since their peak in October, when investors were still betting that rising stars such as the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) were now strong enough to shake off a US crisis. That illusion has been shattered.

The International Monetary Fund said it is mobilising a "rapid-fire" fund worth several hundred billion dollars to stop a domino collapse across the developing world.

The trigger for the latest round of capital flight has been the lightning implosion of Iceland. BNP Paribas warned clients yesterday that the island is heading for "sovereign default" with contagion risks for other economies that have been living beyond their means on foreign credit.

Hungary had to intervene yesterday to prop up its markets following a run on country's biggest lender OTP. The Budapest bourse fell 13pc. The treasury had to scrap a bond auction.

The most new mortgages in Hungary are in Swiss francs, leaving the homeowners facing a vicious squeeze as the forint plunges against the franc.

In Pakistan, the rupee has fallen to an all-time low. Standard & Poor's downgraded the country's sovereign debt to near write-off levels of CCC-plus. The central bank's foreign reserves have fallen to $4.7bn (£2.73billion).

"The danger of default is hovering," said Professor Kaisar Bengali from Karachi University.

"Pakistan may not be able to re-pay its debt or import anything," he said, adding that the country cannot assume that it will be bailed out for strategic reasons.

Default risk on Kazakhstan's top banks has risen to 70pc as property bubble bursts in the former Soviet republic and reliance in foreign credit comes back to haunt.

The country has mortgaged its future to oil prices, which crashed below $80 a barrel yesterday as the whole nexus of commodities (except gold) buckled in a wave of forced selling.

Analysts warn that it is leading indicator for what could happen if Russia if crude falls much further.

Financial crisis: Countries at risk of bankruptcy from Pakistan to Baltics - Telegraph
 
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Pakistan pleads for cash to avert bankruptcy | theage.com.au

please google for pakistan bankruptcy and go to neutral websites to figure some truth out.

iceland and pakistan are two countries facing bankruptcy. and pakistan is dispatching envoys to US and UK, asking for money.

In case you missed Munshi sahib's post:

"A string of countries face the risk of "going bust" as financial panic sweeps Asia, Eastern Europe, and Latin America, raising the spectre of a strategic crisis in some of the world's most dangerous spots."


Learn not to revel and gloat in other's misfortune.
 
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Almost all countries have(or will go) through a financial crisis, the important thing for Pakistan is to ensure that next time rather than asking for a bailout they should be the ones doling out the bailouts. I remember India too went through a massive economic crisis some 16 years back with no one to help her today the situation is completely different. (no one to help her proved a blessing in disguise, refer to Competitive advantage theory)

Pakistan has some very powerful and rich friends like Saudis, Chinese and Americans(okay this one is debatable) and no doubt will bail her out, but I fear the security at the back of the mind that world will not allow Pak to break, or go bankrupt will induce(has induced) inertia into Pakistan and be counter productive.

Further American, Chinese or Saudi bailout will not be without riders (there is no free lunch). For Pak to be a true sovereign nation, it should be comfortable with its identity, with its position in the world and not show unison only when it is confronted esp by India. They should initiate tough reforms to sort out the economy (promote something like import subsitution, this would be tough to implement if Chinese or Americans help her etc.), tie-in economic activity with neighbours(or any nation antagonistic) to ensure that confrontations would lessen as greater economic activity exponentially reduces chances of wars.
 
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One shouldn't preach the teachers.

Iceland and Pakistan "face" the immediate crisis - and walk your own walk, don't gloat that there are other countries out there. Yours is one of the firsts.

I thought Pakistan economy was growing so very well lately, all your newspapers and media was so jumpy and comparing it with India too. What happened to that?

In case you missed Munshi sahib's post:

"A string of countries face the risk of "going bust" as financial panic sweeps Asia, Eastern Europe, and Latin America, raising the spectre of a strategic crisis in some of the world's most dangerous spots."


Learn not to revel and gloat in other's misfortune.
 
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In case you missed Munshi sahib's post:

"A string of countries face the risk of "going bust" as financial panic sweeps Asia, Eastern Europe, and Latin America, raising the spectre of a strategic crisis in some of the world's most dangerous spots."


Learn not to revel and gloat in other's misfortune.

Yes, that may be a human weakness to gloat in other's misfortune but overcoming the basal instincts is what humanity is about.

It's wrong when someone gloats in the temporary difficulties that Pakistan may be going through now and wrong when so many Pakistanis (including some moderators at times) point to the Indian poverty at the most inopportune place.

Yes, we have those challenges and we will overcome.
 
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Current Pakistan's economic crisis was inevitable due to worng economic policies of Mushrraf. Good economic out look an high forex reserves was due to winow dressing an borrowing. Problem is current gov is going ahead with same economic policies...
 
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In case you missed Munshi sahib's post:

"A string of countries face the risk of "going bust" as financial panic sweeps Asia, Eastern Europe, and Latin America, raising the spectre of a strategic crisis in some of the world's most dangerous spots."


Learn not to revel and gloat in other's misfortune.

and yet munshi saheb himself is gloating in others misfortune ..
and by the way crisis always leads to opportunities ..
forgot 1930?
 
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