Is it time for Pakistan to seriously start considering an ICBM ?

[RockyX]

Again you're misguiding. Once a projectile reaches the earth's orbit it doesn't need any fuel, so the range is no longer an issue at that point.You're aim is to misguide your fellow Pakistanis, by hook or by crook, and this is just one more proof of that.

He is not misguiding. He is telling the truth with proper reasoning and facts. But I don't know why you don't want believe him.

 

[The Deterrent]

ICBM will be useless after 2016-2020.

US, Russia and Israel already have effective ABM shield. All 3 developing even 3rd Layer.
India ABM 3 layer shield will be deployed by 2014-2017.
China already announced ABM shield by 2020.

U.S. Developing ABM shield for Europe and It's allies like Australia, Canada, Sk, Japan, etc. in next 5-10 Years.

ICBM won't have major impact after 2017-2020. Only Middle-East Countries will be without ABM shield.

That is not entirely correct...

Only 2 ABM systems are deployed (operational) which can successfully intercept ICBMs.

1. The Russian A-35 anti-ballistic missile system.
2. The U.S. Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system.

All other systems are for intercepting SRBMs and MRBMs...for example:

1. U.S. Army Patriot
2. U.S. Navy Aegis combat system
3. U.S. Army THAAD
4. Israeli Arrow missile.

Read this:

Ballistic Missile Defenses - Effectiveness and Reliability

 

[RockyX]

That is not entirely correct...

Only 2 ABM systems are deployed (operational) which can successfully intercept ICBMs.

1. The Russian A-35 anti-ballistic missile system.
2. The U.S. Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system.

All other systems are for intercepting SRBMs and MRBMs...for example:

1. U.S. Army Patriot
2. U.S. Navy Aegis combat system
3. U.S. Army THAAD
4. Israeli Arrow missile.

Read this:

Ballistic Missile Defenses - Effectiveness and Reliability

I said same - US, RUSSIA & ISRAEL have such shield. They are developing more shields and will be in Placed by 2015. Arrow-3 will be placed by 2014 only.India and China later. India is developing for last 7 years, Still 3-5 more years needed. It's expensive and very advance technology. After 2017-2020, All Major countries (US, Russia, Israel, India, China and US allies) will have ABM.

As per Effectiveness, According to law of Physics. No can say 100%. But 99% will be achieved. Reason - Not 1 but multiple layers (there will be many layers within 1 layer) [ I am not counting SAM], Not 1 but Multiple Interception and Multiple target will be hit same time. Speed More and technology more advance. Also, Do remember ABM is 4 time more expensive than BM.

 

[T-Rex]

Even satellites need fuel to adjust their orbit.

The amount of fuel to adjust the projectory and the amount to cover a distance of 12000 km are not same and that makes all the difference.

 

[The Deterrent]

I said same - US, RUSSIA & ISRAEL have such shield. They are developing more shields and will be in Placed by 2015. India and China later.

As per Effectiveness, According to law of Physics. No can say 100%. But 99% will be achieved. Reason - Not 1 but multiple layers (there will be many layers within 1 layer) [ I am not counting SAM], Not 1 but Multiple Interception and Multiple target will be hit same time. Speed More and technology more advance.

You are missing the point...

These countries cannot intercept ICBMs with THAAD,Arrow,Patriot or Aegis...they simply can't

an ICBM is way too fast for them to intercept at lower altitudes...plus if it is MIRVed,has MaRV,Counter-measures suite (balloons,chaff and decoys) and 8-10 are launched simultaneously...

 

[RockyX]

You are missing the point...

These countries cannot intercept ICBMs with THAAD,Arrow,Patriot or Aegis...they simply can't

an ICBM is way too fast for them to intercept at lower altitudes...plus if it is MIRVed,has MaRV,Counter-measures suite (balloons,chaff and decoys) and 8-10 are launched simultaneously...

They can...... They will not intercept when it's launched (Due to Distance of more than 10,000KM) But Once comes in range, it would be intercepted and killed.

8-10 Launch is irrelevant. As ABM can intercept and Hit many targets at same time.

MIRV and MARV can be intercepted by latest technology. Once MIRV expands, ABM can also expands. It can target many in different direction. Path also be tracked and will be Hit as per. Also, ABM doesn't mean I missile, It's big set-up with 100's of Missiles, Targets. Very Dynamic. Also, Those countries who are having/Developing ABM are also pioneer in Satellite technology (Spy Satellite....Second to Second Update)

AD-1,2 operational Range would be 5,000KM+

Still, These technologies have not reached to mature level. But after 2020, I am sure it would be.

 

[Vibs]

You are missing the point...

These countries cannot intercept ICBMs with THAAD,Arrow,Patriot or Aegis...they simply can't

an ICBM is way too fast for them to intercept at lower altitudes...plus if it is MIRVed,has MaRV,Counter-measures suite (balloons,chaff and decoys) and 8-10 are launched simultaneously...

Actually they can. Because an ICBM has to reach the exo-atmosphere, there are multiple stages it can be attacked despite it's shield. If the BMS is near the launch site (like the one NATO is building around Russia), it can be intercepted at launch stage itself.Second stage is in space (sort of how an anti-satellite missile works.) Last but most difficult is intercept upon re-entry.

 

[Vibs]

The amount of fuel to adjust the projectory and the amount to cover a distance of 12000 km are not same and that makes all the difference.

Not really.

 

[T-Rex]

Still, These technologies have not reached to mature level. But after 2020, I am sure it would be.

And there will also be counter measures to counter the ABMs.

 

[bubble123]

Guyz i read somewhere that there are no realistic ABM systems.

Only way to get an ICBM is try to shoot it down within the first stage.To do that you need ABM systems near the launch location.

 

[T-Rex]

Not really.

Yeah, you're right, 2+2=5, If that floats your boat, so be it!

 

[RockyX]

Guyz i read somewhere that there are no realistic ABM systems.

Only way to get an ICBM is try to shoot it down within the first stage.To do that you need ABM systems near the launch location.

Incorrect Info......You are talking about 90's and now it's 2011.

 

[RockyX]

And there will also be counter measures to counter the ABMs.

OMG......

 

[The Deterrent]

Actually they can. Because an ICBM has to reach the exo-atmosphere, there are multiple stages it can be attacked despite it's shield. If the BMS is near the launch site (like the one NATO is building around Russia), it can be intercepted at launch stage itself.Second stage is in space (sort of how an anti-satellite missile works.) Last but most difficult is intercept upon re-entry.

Actually...interception is the easiest when the BM is in boost phase...but for that you have to be inside enemy's territory or to use highly uneconomical Laser BMD...

Interception in the mid-course phase is not easy,because it is very difficult to develop an ABM which can go that high and intercept it a very sharp angles...

 

[The Deterrent]

Guyz i read somewhere that there are no realistic ABM systems.

Only way to get an ICBM is try to shoot it down within the first stage.To do that you need ABM systems near the launch location.

Yes,you are right...US itself cannot defend itself against a Russian or Chinese ICBM attack...the US BMD practically can save it from North Korean or Iranian missiles...