Is a Taiwan war conceivable?

[HavocHeaven]

There is nothing wrong with seeing ourselves as internet warriors. However, it should be a consensus that China should never be aggressive to the point of attacking other countries without belligerent provocations.

Instead of recklessly starting an invasion of Southeast Asia, China has to avoid repeating the same mistakes that Germany did during WW1 or Japan during WW2.

An old photo from World War I shows a company of German soldiers getting on the train on their way to the front. On the wall of the car somebody had scribbled: “viel Feind, viel Ehr’” (“The more enemies, the more honor.&#8221

In those days, country after country was declaring war on Germany. The spirit of the graffito reflected the hubris of the supreme commander, Kaiser Wilhelm, who relied on the war plan of the legendary German General Staff. It was indeed an excellent war plan, and as excellent war plans are apt to do, it started going awry right from the beginning.

I'm with you, bro. 古人云，国之虽大,好战必亡（Belligerence certainly fail）, 天下虽安,忘战必危。 But red guards addicted to zealotry never get it. Fortunately the CCP's insightful plan is quite balanced. It will never get China contained in the box or lose Taiwan permanently, neither will it cost China's precious peace time. It's even technically peeling Taiwan off America's island chain strategy.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Chinese history made its final judgment on Empress Dowager, and you people associated with pro-Western corrupt government officials will also be judged! Enjoy your ill-gotten gains.


Economic development has nothing to do with peace.

Wealth comes from exploration, expansion, domination, exploitation and plunder.

If China wants to play on the same level as the western big boys, it needs to think like a western big boy.






国与国的游戏，道义从来就是强者的假面具，弱者的遮羞布。


国家道德进步过吗？


与西方接触的百多年，我们能学到的除了科技与制度，更重要的是流氓本质，流氓本质是西方文明能够迅猛发展的一项关键因素。这群流氓一面将美洲，澳洲的原住民屠杀殆尽，一面又做出虚假的忏悔来软化仇恨 西方的虚伪与丑恶，纵观整个人类史无出其右。


若非及时掌握了核武器，二战一结束，怕苏联也该被西方打成废渣了吧。


核武器令弱国对强国具备了同样的毁灭能力。核武器的发明第一次让流氓可以肆无忌惮地流氓下去——试想当年 如果德国人或日本人也掌握了核武器，美国敢参战吗？如果德国人或日本人也掌握了核武器，今天的世界被边缘化的怕正是美国了吧。更敢于使用核武器的必定是国力弱小，相对落后的一方，原因很简单：毁灭的程度一样，但毁灭的价值更合算。更敢于使用核武器的国家必定国土广袤纵深，人口众多，原因也很简单：只有这样的国家能够承受更多次的核打击，生存延续的机会也更大。


中国要崛起，必须打破现行的游戏规则。


中国要崛起，必须成为比美国更流氓的流氓。


无论是古老的道家学说还是现在的宇宙科学都告诉我们，从来就没有一个物种能够永恒的繁衍下去。生命如流星，过往即逝。如是，可以不争，但更可以争。无关乎尊严其他，只为能活得更爽，在有限的生命里，做肆无忌惮地流氓总好过做逆来顺受的懦夫，在无为有为之间，更愿有为，愿记取“一万年太久，只争朝夕。”


文明进步，时代发展，和平是主流，。。。。诸如此类从来就是强者欺世盗名，瞒天过海的一派胡言，也从来就是弱者不思进取，甘当奴才的绝好借口。


国家要强大，其国家的人民必须团结，要人民团结就必须令人民利益一致，要利益一致就必须创立公平公正的制度，公平公正的制度必然是人民当家作主的制度。是故，现代民主制度才是西方强大的根源，让西方强国可以以其内部利益一致为基础去开拓更大的生存空间。开创更大的生存空间就注定要侵占牺牲他国的生存空间。所以，强国的民主注定是对内民主，对外专政。 弱国的专政必定是对内专政，对外不得不民主。


现在的世界游戏由美国定规则，美国实现和保障这一规则的手段有三：金融，贸易，军事。对80年代的日本，90年代的亚洲四小龙其采取的金融战和贸易战。对伊拉克，叙利亚采取的是军事手段。之所以采取不同的手段，原因在于日本和亚洲国家对美国的挑战是在其遵守美国制定的规则内部的挑战，而石油国家的挑战则是力图打破美国规则。无论是体制内的挑战还是体制外的挑战，都是压缩美国的生存空间，所以都会招致美国的报复。对体制内的挑战，体制本身就能够提供贸易和金融手段予以制裁，对体制外的挑战，贸易和金融的力量有限，就只能动用军事力量。


所以，在美国制定的游戏规则下，中国根本就不可能崛起，哪怕中国发展的更大，也不过就是另一个日本，说的难听点就是美国养的一头猪，一头随时可以屠宰出栏被消费的商品猪。GDP和外汇储备超过日本也无非就是比日本这头猪更具出肉率更具消费价值的又一头商品猪。而现在，中国猪也养肥了，也快到出栏时间了，该屠宰了。所以我们看到人民币被要求升值，金融体系被要求开放，QIFF可以进入操纵股指期货，原材料价格猛涨。。。。这些事件为什么如此密集的出现？很简单，因为现在的中国和当年的日本一样，是属于美国世界游戏规则体制内的，只要金融战，贸易战这一刀一案就能轻易屠宰的猪——好肥的猪啊。


大国崛起？——整个世界史，你何时看见过有一个国家在别人的游戏规则下崛起的例子？中国就可以，别他妈痴人说梦了。


大国崛起说穿了就是惊天动地打破规则的生存之战


大国崛起说穿了就是新势力取代旧势力的改朝换代之战。


中国——你准备好了吗？


蒙古与核武器


在人类历史上，从来都是先进文明战胜落后文明吗？


非也，所以匈奴可以打败罗马，蒙古可以征服世界。为什么？因为先进的体制并没有保证就一定产生划时代的武器。而落后民族在拓殖生存空间的利益驱动下却具备了强大的战斗意志。


欧洲打败奥斯曼首先是因为发明了现代火枪这一划时代的武器，先能战胜了奥斯曼，才有资格和时间去发展现代制度。继而西方又在先进制度的促进下创造出划时代的文化和科技成果，在武器制造上越发遥遥领先其他文明，人的体力和意志力于战争越来越不重要。


至此，落后民族再无兴风作浪之力。而西方文明却步入了先进体制——产生先进创造力——发明先进武器——进行最大化的生存空间拓殖——进而保障先进体制 的良性循环。若非第一次世界大战，二次大战这样的西方文明内讧，其他文明其实根本就无翻身之日。


好在，西方文明产生了内讧，终于给了其他文明一线生机。好在在这样的生机中，中国抓住了时间，像强国们一样掌握了核武器。正是在核武器具有的毁灭性武力的保障下，现代文明史才第一次给了那些已然出现代差的落后民族一个复兴的机会。


这才是中国让西方文明不得不重视的真正原因，如果连这都看不懂，却大谈发展经济，现代文明，更甚至有想放弃军事发展消除他国误解的那些人，不是屁股长在脖子上还能是什么？


中国有核武器，关键时刻只要内部不出现像前苏联哪像的“内讧”，我们可以不惜一战来解决问题。用不着让美国还债，我们在亚洲开战，打钓鱼岛 打琉球，打南沙西沙，而且明确的准备和美国打核战争，废除不首先使用核武器的承诺。置之死地而后生，只要把亚洲打赢了，美国只能退出亚洲，利益就都能赚回来。现在中国这个局面，体制，经济。。。再怎么改也来不及了，只有把美国赶出亚洲这一条救急之路了，险极，却除此无他。


中国和美国的军力相比到底如何？核战争是共同毁灭，国家都没了，F-22和航母还有什么用？


中国最具杀力的武器和美国是一样的，那么中国为什么要像日本那样甘愿成为美国规则的棋子？


既然武力是国家的根本保障，关键的时候不用那和没有保障又有什么区别？


美国的最大利益是什么？美国的最大利益真的是剥削中国吗？


美国剥削中国只是让美国活的好些，而中国被剥削却是关乎整个中华民族能否延续的问题。美国的最大利益和所有的国家一样：根本利益——起码能生存。仅此而已。


武力必须要用，但必须用的明智。最明智的就是：对对方造成的伤害远大于对方给我的。中国准备损失的无非就是一大堆高泡沫的房产，美国要损失的除了房产还有他赖以盘剥世界的金融和产业资本。中国要死的无非就是白种人眼里的黄祸，美国要死的却是他自己眼里的世界文化的创造者们，他自己眼里的天生就该享受的文明人。


武力基本一致的情况下，比的只有一个：战斗的意志力。


美国和中国谁更有战斗的意志力？


当然是中国，中国就像是过往的蒙古，没资源，落后，生存空间狭小。美国就像过往的宋朝，富裕，文明，赚全世界的钱。蒙古老是被其他的国家盘剥，宋朝偏安一隅就能活得有滋有味，却还不安心，造大船满世界乱跑，用那些原本就是泥巴烧的什么高科技瓷器换全世界不可再生的资源黄金白银翡翠什么的，都这么赚了，还不要脸，楞说自己是世界中心。老是羞辱和蒙古一样的一班泥腿子。他妈的不打他打谁？


所以中国根本就没理由成为第二个日本。


什么时候打？ 如果美国要人民币升值被拒而把中国列入汇率操纵国而对所有中国产品征收20%以上的关税，那就是要毁掉整个中国的经济。那就就是动了中国的国本，敢动中国的国本，中国就必须打。


怎样制造事端？


向全世界大肆宣传：美国欠中国巨款，中国严厉要求要美国还债。并且明确表明立场，美国你别想用多印钞票这种办法来坑中国。你要是敢多印钞票，老子就不要钱，要你用黄金进行等价替换。你不给，那就别怪老子跟你玩命。


美国当然还不起，那好美国你就先把你海外的公司全给中国，不给，那我就去没收。首先没收在中国的所有美国企业，（就像刚解放那会一样，中国没收美国在中国的所有资产）。


美国肯定立马急了，抗议，断交，航母集结，增兵关岛冲绳。就等你美国来了。


中国发行战争高利率国债。同时宣布收回钓鱼岛，琉球群岛，驱逐西沙南沙的所有外国势力。同时美国会拉帮所有亚洲国家对抗中国，亚洲和中国有领土纠纷的国家不出意外会出现反华行动。


反华行动一旦发生，中国制定公布新法：中国在全世界范围内保护中国公民安全，有需要可以对任何对中国公民造成侵害的国家进行军事报复。同时废除不首先使用核武器的承诺。


亚洲有小国反华行动继续升级，中国向该国派出小股军队。同时启动大规模军需生产，囊括大量民企。产能过剩的钢铁等立即有了用场。 亚洲小国同中国开战，中国按计划战败。向全世界宣布，中国对该国采取核报复。美国严重抗议和警告中国不要玩火自焚。中国严厉要求美国还债。并宣布将美国，日本，澳大利亚全境纳入核打击范围。同时要求日本等亚洲国家驱逐美国军事势力，否则中国一旦和美国开战，这些国家将成为首先被攻击国。


对亚洲某小国如期实施核打击。全世界舆论一片哗然。中国正式出兵收钓鱼岛，琉球，南沙西沙。南沙西沙的小国无力对抗。日本和美国同中国在海上开战，中国突然退出北面战场，对日本某2线城市实施核打击。日本立即出现部分消极情绪。中国以亚洲是亚洲人的亚洲为口号要求日本和亚洲各国驱逐美国势力，各种渗透工作加紧进行，很快会有部分小国宣称中立，甚至个别开始屈服于中国。中国要求美国还债。要求亚洲各国成立以中国为首的亚洲联盟。美国和中国协商，中国要美国立即还钱，并离开中国领土冲绳和琉球。美国继续强硬，中国立即对冲绳和琉球的美国基地实施核打击。


至此会有2种局面，


（1）3年后全世界的人类基本灭绝，美国中国早没了。


（2）美国退出亚洲，中国占据全亚洲。


第一种后没什么可谈的，第2种，中国继续占领澳大利亚，（美国都退了，英国不值一提）将澳大利亚纳入行省，获取大量资源，同时立足澳大利亚，对南极的占领自然捷足先登。拉拢日本和俄罗斯，建立大亚洲同盟。自此，世界的大版图上，大西洋势力的美国和西欧相对中日俄的势力将明显处于弱势。


中国要的是资源和制定规则的权利，并用最小的代价去取得。国与国，中国不要当贵族要当流氓，而且要当大流氓。


战略的目的在于，利用武器杀力的对等，用最小代价打破现有的游戏规则。


战略的可行性在于集专政体制的优点一搏，为中国争取体制变革的时间和财富累积。


学秦国背一时骂名，换千秋大业。亦必汲取秦之教训，成果后必须进行体制改革，将成果归之于人民。专政对外，民主对内，人民利益共镶，方能无往而不胜。

不错兄弟，挺有远见的，和很多大佬的想法都一致。

 

[Sasquatch]

No war with Chinese Taipei enough blood was spilled if they declare independence then we might no have a choice however Chinese Nationalism is growing and we will use that.

---------- Post added at 02:53 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:50 AM ----------

The battle for Chinese Taipei is a test of waiting now it does not matter if we have to wait for another 50 or 100 years or even 1000 Chinese Taipei will be reunified, step by step the relations will grow in the end Chinese Nationalism will need to play a strong factor.

 

[HavocHeaven]

No war with Chinese Taipei enough blood was spilled if they declare independence then we might no have a choice however Chinese Nationalism is growing and we will use that.

---------- Post added at 02:53 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:50 AM ----------

The battle for Chinese Taipei is a test of waiting now it does not matter if we have to wait for another 50 or 100 years or even 1000 Chinese Taipei will be reunified, step by step the relations will grow in the end Chinese Nationalism will need to play a strong factor.

Well said. We should wait patiently for an opportunity. Rush in one hour, suffer in the rest of your life, that's what my mom told me when I was a kid.

 

[Always Neutral]

WE in pakistan i mean the people and armed forces of pakistan are with china in every situtation we can go to war with anyone for china we will help china in any war or peaceful solution with any country even US

Yet China puts JUD on the UN list of terrorist?
Yet China refuseses to give you aid in recent times but prefers to give you loans which you need to repay one day?
Yet China refused to help you in 1971?

So much for Islam will rule the world one day and Gazwa Hind will start from Pakistan as per ZH!

 

[DESERT FIGHTER]

Yet China puts JUD on the UN list of terrorist?
Yet China refuseses to give you aid in recent times but prefers to give you loans which you need to repay one day?
Yet China refused to help you in 1971?

So much for Islam will rule the world one day and Gazwa Hind will start from Pakistan as per ZH!

Pakistan needs to stand on its own feet!......and stop lookin towards others for help...

 

[anon45]

The hope of a peaceful reunification is fading.

- Ma Ying-Jeou said that he does not anticipate a summit with CCP leader even if he wins a second term

- Ma Ying-Jeou also said that any peace deal with the mainland must be subject to referendum

- Despite the above, Ma Ying-Jeou is barely leading in Taiwan polls against the hardcore Taiwan independence party

- When Ma Ying-Jeou said that he would be willing to make a peace deal in his second term, he immediately fell a few points in the polls


I believe China has no choice but to reunify by force. Peaceful reunification is a pipe dream. The vast majority of people in Taiwan have negative views of China.

By taking action to reunify, China immediately breaks through the first island chain with major strategic consequences:

- China gains the ability to project power to Diaoyu Islands, East China Sea and threaten US / Japanese bases in Okinawa

- China gains the ability to project power to the Philippines and also threaten Guam

- China gains Taiping Island, the biggest island in the South China Sea and the only one with fresh water

- China can access deep Pacific waters from naval bases on Taiwan's east coast, perfect for submarine warfare


In other words, reunification immediately gives China the ability to settle all of our maritime disputes by force and project power all over maritime Asia. This is absolutely vital today when the US has already declared cold war on us.

Peace across the Taiwan straits must be sacrificed. Taiwan has dragged its feet for too long. China's strategic imperatives dictate that we must take Taiwan!

You're looking past the actual war for Taiwan and assume it is already won. That is far from the case, and there isn't even a guarantee that the war would end if China occupied Taiwan depending on if China attacks US bases at the same time.

Americans tend to react to unprovoked attacks on US soldiers rather badly.

 

[faithfulguy]

不错兄弟，挺有远见的，和很多大佬的想法都一致。

This kind of attitude would cause never ending conflicts. Focus on peace and development and things will fall into place.

 

[AstroTrain]

The two has more important things to worry about like the global financial crisis and EU debt than any confrontation. The two economies are so intertwined now any conflict is a lose lose scenario.

 

[Huan]

No war with Chinese Taipei enough blood was spilled if they declare independence then we might no have a choice however Chinese Nationalism is growing and we will use that.

---------- Post added at 02:53 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:50 AM ----------

The battle for Chinese Taipei is a test of waiting now it does not matter if we have to wait for another 50 or 100 years or even 1000 Chinese Taipei will be reunified, step by step the relations will grow in the end Chinese Nationalism will need to play a strong factor.

People people. Just wait until China's economy and military becomes the top no. 1 in the world by year 2020. After that, China will have much more room and confidence to utilize forceful measures to reunify with Taiwan. Ok? You do not have to wait 100, 500, or 1000 years for this, my god.

 

[Omar1984]

Taiwan will automatically chose to be with China.

China is an emerging global superpower.

Look at Puerto Rico. It begged to be part of the superpower (USA).

Taiwan is part of China. We Pakistanis will always support China

 

[ao333]

Option 4 should read "If you're Indian, click this"

 

[applesauce]

Yet China puts JUD on the UN list of terrorist?
Yet China refuseses to give you aid in recent times but prefers to give you loans which you need to repay one day?
Yet China refused to help you in 1971?

So much for Islam will rule the world one day and Gazwa Hind will start from Pakistan as per ZH!

being a friend now means that you should sacrifice yourself so that ur friend gains a small advantage?

how many friends do you have that is willing to die so you can get a discount on ur dinner? scratch that, you dont know what friendship is, so u probably have no friends.

 

[Sonyuke_Songpaisan]

we should invade taiwan when USA attacked the iraq, but we have missed the best time. Now, the toubles of USA in middle east have been solved and they want to come back to asia-pacific again. we dont have the ability to reunify taiwan now. Just wait and wait.

 

[Alchemy]

WE in pakistan i mean the people and armed forces of pakistan are with china in every situtation we can go to war with anyone for china we will help china in any war or peaceful solution with any country even US

This attitude of your leadership led to the current mess in and around Afg and Pak , your leaders and people claimed that you will fight on behalf of Americans lost your men to give Americans the victories , then for the next ten years fought again to clean their mess in the war on terror ! so think twice before fighting others wars , its best left for others to clean their house !