IRIAF | News and Discussions

[sha ah]

 

[skyshadow]

 

[yavar]

 

[sahureka2]

yavar
But it's the same video released a while ago, maybe only the music changes

 

[Ray_Atek]

Cold War Era

Soviet Pilot(Vladimir Kondaurov) who test flew captured F-5 against MiG-21, MiG-23 explains why the Tiger beat the Fishbed(MiG-21), Flogger(MiG-23)in every engagement.
‘Every flight ended with the same result: MiG-21 lost, although he had much higher thrust-to-weight ratio,’ Vladimir Kondaurov, Soviet pilot who tested the F-5.

 

[aryobarzan]

Turkey spending $6 billion to buy 40 F16V and upgrade package for current ones they have..

Egypt buying 35 SU35 (I recall from memory)..

Both countries in debt ...turkey at $ 45 billion and Egypt at an eye-popping $135 billion debt

Both negative trade balance (they spend more than they produce)

Iran at almost no debt $9 billion and POSITIVE trade balance of $15 billion.

I am dead set against buying any aircraft from outside..but I like so see more $$$ for domestic development and serial production of an indigenous engine and platform..we sure can afford it at GDP of $628 billion..(turkey GDP only slightly higher at $719 and Egypt at around $350 billion).

 

[TheImmortal]

Turkey spending $6 billion to buy 40 F16V and upgrade package for current ones they have..

Egypt buying 35 SU35 (I recall from memory)..

Both countries in debt ...turkey at $ 45 billion and Egypt at an eye-popping $135 billion debt

Both negative trade balance (they spend more than they produce)

Iran at almost no debt $9 billion and POSITIVE trade balance of $15 billion.

I am dead set against buying any aircraft from outside..but I like so see more $$$ for domestic development and serial production of an indigenous engine and platform..we sure can afford it at GDP of $628 billion..(turkey GDP only slightly higher at $719 and Egypt at around $350 billion).

Who Told you Iranian GDP is at 628B? It’s a highly flawed metric using the 2010 US dollar rate which hasn’t been applicable in nearly a decade.

Iran’s true GDP is sub 200B when comparing it against the CURRENT basket currency rates of main reserve currencies (Dollars, Euros, Pounds, Francs, Yen, etc)

 

[QWECXZ]

Who Told you Iranian GDP is at 628B? It’s a highly flawed metric using the 2010 US dollar rate which hasn’t been applicable in nearly a decade.

Iran’s true GDP is sub 200B when comparing it against the CURRENT basket currency rates of main reserve currencies (Dollars, Euros, Pounds, Francs, Yen, etc)

You do realize that nominal GDP is, as its name suggests, "nominal". Right?
Iran's Nominal GDP is $628B based on the official exchange rate of 42,200 IRR = 1 USD, which is the correct figure.
Government conducts its trade with the official exchange rate. The unofficial market is for ordinary citizens, not the government or its affiliated entities.
Meanwhile, Iran's PPP GDP is $1.1 trillion.

 

[TheImmortal]

You do realize that nominal GDP is, as its name suggests, "nominal". Right?
Iran's Nominal GDP is $628B based on the official exchange rate of 42,200 IRR = 1 USD, which is the correct figure.
Government conducts its trade with the official exchange rate. The unofficial market is for ordinary citizens, not the government or its affiliated entities.
Meanwhile, Iran's PPP GDP is $1.1 trillion.

No. Nominal GDP is a good at final production at current prices whereas real gdp assumes value of good at final production adjusted for inflation.

It does not apply into your arguement with the Iranian “official currency rate”. The government rate is merely the government saying “no no no free market is wrong, our currency is actually worth a lot more.” Turkey is going thru same thing right now. Lira was 1 for 2 back in 2015 and now 1 for 9. The market says it’s 9, Turkey can say whatever it wants, but market rate is the true rate.

So Yeah sure whatever government wants to say it can say. But life doesn’t work that way, it’s based on supply and demand. Demand for rial is non existent

The government has cut down the use of that official rate for international trade to VERY few exceptions (mostly critical goods even then you need connections to get it in any significant amount). If you do any major business in Iran, you know this.

So since Iran is a socialist country itsGDP is mostly made up of private entriprises who are using the free floating market rate (bazaar rate) and not the government rate for few exceptions of vital goods.

Iran’s currency is neither 4-5 toman nor the current 27-28 toman. Both are extremes. But valuing the Iranian economy at 650B is a massive flaw and Iran’s economy is no where that big.

So one shouldn’t used a flawed number to make it the basis of their argument for major purchases.

It’s like a human having a salary on paper of 250,000 a year. But in reality that salary for last 5-7 years is worth 25,000 a year. Then person says well since I have 250,000 a year salary I am going to go buy a 1M dollar house.

Doesn’t work that way. Now you can say nominal this or nominal that (which is incorrect) to justify your use of flawed non realistic data. But at the end of the day it’s what was the purpose of the data set? The purpose was to extrapolate or infer that Iran can afford a large scale aircraft purchase using said flawed data as its justification. This should not be done.

That is all.

 

[QWECXZ]

No. Nominal GDP is a good at final production at current prices whereas real gdp assumes value of good at final production adjusted for inflation.

It does not apply into your arguement with the Iranian “official currency rate”. The government rate is merely the government saying “no no no free market is wrong, our currency is actually worth a lot more.”

Yeah sure whatever you say bud. Life doesn’t work that way, it’s based on supply and demand. Demand for rial is non existent

The government has cut down the use of that official rate for international trade to VERY few exceptions (mostly critical goods even then you need connections to get it in any significant amount). If you do any major business in Iran, you would know this.

So since Iran is a socialist country itsGDP is mostly made up of private entriprises who are using the free floating market rate (bazaar rate) and not the government rate.

Yes, but we are not talking about inflation now, we are talking about the exchange rate. Real GDP is inflation adjusted. You're right.

The government controls the flow of dollar in the economy and it can distribute it to its own affiliated entities at a fixed price if it wants. In a country like Iran where economy is controlled mostly by semi-private countries with strong ties to the system, the official exchange rate is not as useless as you claim. Two of the largest sectors of Iran's economy are completely under the control of the government and the revolutionary guards: the energy sector and the telecommunication sector. Plus, if that's what they do for other countries, why should Iran be any different?

What do you mean that there is no demand for Rial? 85 million people are trading with it every day. Salaries are paid in Rial. Over 200 million transactions are done in IRR every day via Iran's banking system. If you mean internationally, then over 97% of the FOREX reserves of nearly all central banks in the world consists of fewer than 10 currencies (USD, Euro, Renminbi, Pounds, Yen, CAD, AUD, Swiss Francs). Does that mean there is no demand for other currencies?

Both IMF and World Bank are now reporting Iran's GDP in 2020 to be around $620B. Even World Bank has corrected its previously reported figure on Iran's economy:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been estimated at US$628 billion for the Iranian calendar year 2020/21, calculated at the official exchange rate for a population of about 84 million. Iran’s real GDP is estimated to grow by 1.7% in 2020/21. Output loss from COVID-19 was less pronounced than in other countries, as Iran’s economy had already contracted by 12% over the previous two years. Economic recovery in Q3 and Q4-2020 was stronger than expected, both in the oil and non-oil sectors, with the non-oil sector’s rebound driven by manufacturing, as exchange rate depreciation made domestic production more competitive.

Source: World Bank

IMF gives a different estimation of around $610B. Both figures are above $600B. And this figure is consistent with Iran's GDP in previous years. So, I don't see why we should believe that Iran's GDP is below $200B.

 

[TheImmortal]

Both IMF and World Bank are now reporting Iran's GDP in 2020 to be around $630B. Even World Bank has corrected its figure on Iran's economy:


Source: World Bank

IMF gives a different estimation of around $610B. Both figures are above $600B.

Yeah you are cherry picking data because they are using the 2010 figure for USD in a bid to “smooth” the chart of volatility for all countries.

If Iran was a normal operating developed country then this method wouldn’t be an issue. But for Iran (and Turkey) or any country going thru severe hyper inflation or severe currency weakening then this will lead to a false data set.

If you were even trading/business in Iran, you know that in 2010 $1USD to 1,200 toman. Oil revenues were at all time highs. Hardly a reasonable rate to use in 2021 when it’s $1USD equals 27,000.

Same source World bank, but using CURRENT USD

Seems you want to argue semantics rather then truly trying to understand the true value of the Iranian economy at this point in time.

I can’t imagine anyone seriously thinking Iranian economy is $650B at this point in time given the sanctions and COVID crisis on the economy.

To see how absurd this proposition is: if Iran’s economy was $650B USD in 2020 that means if Iran’s currency strengths back to 2010 levels than Iran’s economy with no future growth would be worth almost 5 TRILLION dollars

Absolutely laughable as that would mean Iran would have the 3rd Biggest Economy in the world.

 

[QWECXZ]

Yeah you are cherry picking data because they are using the 2010 figure for USD in a bid to “smooth” the chart of volatility for all countries.

If Iran was a normal operating developed country then this method wouldn’t be an issue. But for Iran (and Turkey) or any country going thru severe hyper inflation or severe currency weakening then this will lead to a false data set.

If you were even trading/business in Iran, you know that in 2010 $1USD to 1,200 toman. Oil revenues were at all time highs. Hardly a reasonable rate to use in 2021 when it’s $1USD equals 27,000.

Same source World bank, but using CURRENT USD

View attachment 785336

Seems you want to argue semantics rather then truly trying to understand the true value of the Iranian economy at this point in time.

I can’t imagine anyone seriously thinking Iranian economy is $650B at this point in time given the sanctions and COVID crisis on the economy.

To see how absurd this proposition is: if Iran’s economy was $650B USD in 2020 that means of Iran’s currency strengths back to 2010 levels than Iran’s economy with no future growth would be worth almost 15 TRILLION dollars

Absolutely laughable as that would mean Iran’s economy would be the same size as China’s.

They are not using the 2010 figure. They are using the official exchange rate of 42,200 IRR introduced by the government in 2018. You can at least read what I cited from the World Bank's website before you repeat yourself. World Bank itself is saying that they are using the official exchange rate (introduced in 2018 and slightly modified in 2019).

And Iran is not going through a hyper inflation. An annual inflation rate of 48% is not considered "hyper inflation", let alone "severe" hyper inflation. Hyper inflation is more like an inflation rate of 50% per month.

Oil prices are going up again. Soon they'll be close to $90 per barrel. Soon Iran's annual oil revenues will hit figures like $60 billion dollars again.

You said nominal GDP, and I showed you Iran's nominal GDP from both IMF and World Bank. You have not provided a source for that chart you have shown. Google also shows a similar chart without a valid reference. But I have provided valid references on the websites of World Bank and IMF that estimate Iran's nominal GDP to be around $610B, which makes sense from many aspects.

And I don't understand your argument about Iran's economy with previous USD rate being equal to 15 trillion dollars either. It just doesn't make any sense.

What is more laughable is that you think a country like Iran with a military budget close to $20B has a GDP that hardly reaches $200B. That's close to 10% of our GDP, even higher than Saudi Arabia. lol

 

[TheImmortal]

They are not using the 2010 figure. They are using the official exchange rate of 42,200 IRR introduced by the government in 2018. You can at least read what I cited from the World Bank's website before you repeat yourself. World Bank itself is saying that they are using the official exchange rate (introduced in 2018 and slightly modified in 2019).

And Iran is not going through a hyper inflation. An annual inflation rate of 48% is not considered "hyper inflation", let alone "severe" hyper inflation. Hyper inflation is more like an inflation rate of 50% per month.

Oil prices are going up again. Soon they'll be close to $90 per barrel. Soon Iran's annual oil revenues will hit figures like $60 billion dollars again.

You said nominal GDP, and I showed you Iran's nominal GDP from both IMF and World Bank. You have not provided a source for that chart you have shown. Google also shows a similar chart without a valid reference. But I have provided valid references on the websites of World Bank and IMF that estimate Iran's nominal GDP to be around $610B, which makes sense from many aspects.

And I don't understand your argument about Iran's economy with previous USD rate being equal to 15 trillion dollars either. It just doesn't make any sense.

What is more laughable is that you think a country like Iran with a military budget close to $20B has a GDP that hardly reaches $200B. That's close to 10% of our GDP, even higher than Saudi Arabia. lol

It’s ironic for someone saying to me to “read” when you are too lazy to read. Not only I did write my source (world bank) in my rebuttals and told you it’s from the same site you pulled your data. Not only that, but you couldn’t even bother to read the chart that says the source.

But here I will force feed the information to you because I’m a nice guy.

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

It’s from the same exact source you been preaching like gospel you need to learn to interpret data better

Like I said you like to argue semantics I said hyperinflation or severe currency weakening as I’m typing my response on the go and speaking in generalities about the data method world bank was using. Again you continue to miss the over arching point to argue about minor details rather than the over arching theme.

I would say going for 1,200 rials to 27,500 rials...Aka a deprciation factor of 23 times counts as severe currency depreciation in a decade. But who knows in your blind nationalistic bubble everything is fine.

But again the fact remains is Iran’s economy $650B? If you believe that then you are not worth arguing with.

Now if you say this chart I found says a nominal GDP based on official Iran currency rate is this then that is completely different. That’s just a chart using flawed non real world data.

But this issue is you actually believe that the Iranian economy is worth 650B, which shows you have zero grasp on the real world economy of Iran.

Regarding Iran’s military budget was reduced under Rouhani. And to this day it’s true military budget is unknown. Second a 10% spend of GDP on military is not unheard of especially during times of economic or major war or a country preparing itself for conflict. I think Iran‘s situation fits that Bill. So no, that number is not “laughable”. If you think that number is high go look at military budget of Nazi Germany (adjusted for inflation) and it blows Iran out of the water and take it as a percentage of their GDP, but I digress.

And one last thing if you bother reading what I wrote earlier I said this:

Iran’s currency is neither 4-5 toman nor the current 27-28 toman. Both are extremes. But valuing the Iranian economy at 650B is a massive flaw and Iran’s economy is no where that big.

Valuing the Iranian economy via the propaganda rate of 4.4 when you would be hard pressed to find non government entities accessing that rate at any large amount. Especially considering for the CB of Iran to provide that a rate it is basically taking away from its own dwindling foreign cash reserves to make up the difference (market rate of 27.5 vs 4.4) which under such sanctions and pressure from COVID is not sustainable. Hence it is only used in major exceptions. I repeated this before.

Personally I view the $190B as worst case scenario assuming all transactions take place at 27.5. I have consistently thought (in my own opinion not using data) that 300-400B is a fair number, though I wouldn’t be surprised if it is lower.

Nonetheless, as I reiterated earlier $650B is way too high and not “real world” economics or real world value. But I won’t detail this thread any further.

 

[QWECXZ]

It’s ironic for someone saying to me to “read” when you are too lazy to read. Not only I did write my source (world bank) in my rebuttals and told you it’s from the same site you pulled your data. Not only that, but you couldn’t even bother to read the chart that says the source.

But here I will force feed the information to you because I’m a nice guy.

View attachment 785342

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

It’s from the same exact source you been preaching like gospel you need to learn to interpret data better

Like I said you like to argue semantics I said hyperinflation or severe currency weakening as I’m typing my response on the go and speaking in generalities about the data method world bank was using. Again you continue to miss the over arching point to argue about minor details rather than the over arching theme.

I would say going for 1,200 rials to 27,500 rials...Aka a deprciation factor of 23 times counts as severe currency depreciation in a decade. But who knows in your blind nationalistic bubble everything is fine.

But again the fact remains is Iran’s economy $650B? If you believe that then you are not worth arguing with.

Now if you say this chart I found says a nominal GDP based on official Iran currency rate is this then that is completely different. That’s just a chart using flawed non real world data.

But this issue is you actually believe that the Iranian economy is worth 650B, which shows you have zero grasp on the real world economy of Iran.

Regarding Iran’s military budget was reduced under Rouhani. And to this day it’s true military budget is unknown. Second a 10% spend of GDP on military is not unheard of especially during times of economic or major war or a country preparing itself for conflict. I think Iran‘s situation fits that Bill. So no, that number is not “laughable”. If you think that number is high go look at military budget of Nazi Germany (adjusted for inflation) and it blows Iran out of the water and take it as a percentage of their GDP, but I digress.

And one last thing if you bother reading what I wrote earlier I said this:

Iran’s currency is neither 4-5 toman nor the current 27-28 toman. Both are extremes. But valuing the Iranian economy at 650B is a massive flaw and Iran’s economy is no where that big.

Valuing the Iranian economy via the propaganda rate of 4.4 when you would be hard pressed to find non government entities accessing that rate at any large amount. Especially considering for the CB of Iran to provide that a rate it is basically taking away from its own dwindling foreign cash reserves to make up the difference (market rate of 27.5 vs 4.4) which under such sanctions and pressure from COVID is not sustainable. Hence it is only used in major exceptions. I repeated this before.

Personally I view the $190B as worst case scenario assuming all transactions take place at 27.5. I have consistently thought (in my own opinion not using data) that 300-400B is a fair number, though I wouldn’t be surprised if it is lower.

Nonetheless, as I reiterated earlier $650B is way too high and not “real world” economics or real world value. But I won’t detail this thread any further.

I did see that the chart on Google mentioned World Bank as the source, but I opened the link and it did NOT verify the data it showed. You can't just claim something and say it is from World Bank and then send me to a web page on their website that does not claim what you have said. You must provide a link that exactly shows your claim, which was not the case for the chart you had showed earlier. Many other sources agree with that figure as well. Here is another source that measures Iran's GDP quarterly:

Iran | Nominal GDP | Economic Indicators | CEIC

Iran Nominal GDP reached 429.4 USD bn in Mar 2022, compared with 429.4 USD bn in the previous quarter.<br><br>

www.ceicdata.com

So, you are basically saying that Iran's economy has shrunk by 60% in 3 years. Is that what you are saying?

Definitions have nothing to do with blind nationalistic bubble.
As for the depreciation of IRR, USD/IRR exchange ratio was about 12,500 in 1390 (2011). It is now approximately 270,000. For a period of 10 years, that results in an annual inflation of 35% for the Iranian currency. That's still far from hyper inflation by any measure. Look at the histories of countries where hyper inflation actually happened. Just a simple search on Wikipedia shows: 1- Austria (1922): 1,426%; 2-Bolivia (1985): 20,000%; 3- China (1948): 5,070%; 4- Germany (1923): 29,525%; 5- Greece (1944): 30,000,000,000%!!!

Saudi Arabia has a military expenditure of 8% of its GDP with all the military weapons that it is purchasing right and left and being involved in an actual war in Yemen and you think Iran is spending 10%?

Anyway, if you think economists at IMF and World Bank are dumb, then let it be. GDP itself is not the only measure of an economy's health anyway and we are off-topic. We can continue this issue on the Iranian Chill Thread if you insist, or we can leave it here as is.

 

[sahureka2]

request:
But is this the discussion about the economy or about the IRIAF?