IRIAF | News and Discussions

[sha ah]

They can't SNAP back the sanctions, China and Russia will both veto.

US tried to prevent Russian weapons sales to Turkey, India, what happened ?

In the past Iran has tried buying a small amount of jets, like 30 or 50. This upcoming deal for the purchase of 200 jets, potentially hundreds of Armata T-14 tanks and hundreds of helicopters... honestly that's too big of a deal for Russia to pass.

US tried to prevent Russia from selling Iran S-300. What happened ? After the UN sanctions came off the sale went through. The fact that Trump has been sanctioning China, Russia won't help matters.

Thats only assuming that theres no "snap back" of un sanctions,and with the eurovassals triggering of the jcpoa disputes mechanism theres a very good chance that this will happen,at which point its anyones guess if the russians and chinese would continue to abide by the sanctions or not.
So I wouldnt count my chickens,or potential weapons purchases,just yet.

What do you want Iran to do ? Get rid of its missiles, get rid of its nuclear program, get invaded, end up like Iraq ?

The decision makers of Iran have managed to put us in a position that now North Korea is using our tension with the US to it's own benefit, These guys should answer for the disaster they created.

The EU can't really do much since they haven't lived up to their end of the bargain. China and Russia will more than likely veto any attempt to reinstate UN sanctions on Iran. Russia and China, in their press releases, their foreign ministries have made their position crystal clear. They outright blame the EU for not having the political will to stand up to the US.

If the EU really wanted to salvage the deal then they could expand the INSTEX program by buying Iranian oil, perhaps at a discount, and open up an exchange which could use the oil as a guarantee, like a financial institution, kind of like a bank of sorts, which could connect EU, Russian, Chinese, world markets to Iran while excluding the US.

In that case the US couldn't really do much. What could the US really do ? Sanction the governments of EU, Russia, China and others ? The US would lose just as much as those they sanctioned. Even with China, they can only sanction certain companies doing business with Iran. In any case, there were rumors of ongoing negotiations between Iran and the EU to expand INSTEX, however the idea never materialized. I'm not sure if its because the Europeans wanted extreme discounts on the oil that they were to purchase but that could be just one reason.

Thats only assuming that theres no "snap back" of un sanctions,and with the eurovassals triggering of the jcpoa disputes mechanism theres a very good chance that this will happen,at which point its anyones guess if the russians and chinese would continue to abide by the sanctions or not.
So I wouldnt count my chickens,or potential weapons purchases,just yet.

 

[Sineva]

What do you want Iran to do ? Get rid of its missiles, get rid of its nuclear program, get invaded, end up like Iraq ?

Far from it.
However it does seem to me to be a little premature,to put it mildly,to assume at this point in the proceedings that iran will be receiving any weapons from either russia or china at any point in the near future,as not only have both nations proven to be rather...shall we say..."unreliable" both politically and economically on many previous occasions,but you now also have the very real possibility of the reimposition of un sanctions thanks to the eurovassals.
Ultimately iran can really only rely upon itself.

 

[GWXP]

This upcoming deal for the purchase of 200 jets, potentially hundreds of Armata T-14 tanks and hundreds of helicopters... honestly that's too big of a deal for Russia to pass.

Armata T-14 is over-engineered tank and is very expensive---even Russian military itself doesn't buy Armata preferring T-90 and modernized T-72B3 instead.

Regarding helicopters---Iran can buy transport helicopters but it is better for Iran to develop Shahed-216 as domestic heavy attack helicopter instead of subsidizing foreign defense industry by purchasing their expensive attack helicopters

 

[Philosopher]

They can't SNAP back the sanctions, China and Russia will both veto.

No, you are wrong. In the case of the JCPOA, any side can unilaterally snap back sanctions. The put this in the UNSC on purpose so one country could not VETO.

 

[samparis75]

Armata T-14 is over-engineered tank and is very expensive---even Russian military itself doesn't buy Armata preferring T-90 and modernized T-72B3 instead.

Regarding helicopters---Iran can buy transport helicopters but it is better for Iran to develop Shahed-216 as domestic heavy attack helicopter instead of subsidizing foreign defense industry by purchasing their expensive attack helicopters

Any news about the Shahed 216?

 

[Ich]

Hey, take a look what i've found. I wonder what it looks like...an air war without air fields...a funny website...

https://www.aerosociety.com/news/the-iranian-air-force-unexpectedly-sharp-teeth/

 

[Cthulhu]

What do you want Iran to do ? Get rid of its missiles, get rid of its nuclear program, get invaded, end up like Iraq ?

could you explain more;as we know US withdraw from jcpoa;all and sunderies know that US is the country who has the illegal petition in middle east and IRI can't be a slave like others.........

Iran's commander in chief had the choice of building nuclear bombs, Instead he issued a bull$hit fatwa and declared nuclear weapons haram, The other sheikh handed over all of Iran's nuclear stockpile to the west practically killing the chance for Iran to be a nuclear power. Akhonds are making Iran weak, They should answer for the situation that they created.

 

[Navigator]

They can't SNAP back the sanctions, China and Russia will both veto.

Unfortunately, snap back mechanism of JCPOA was specially made in such way, that Russia and China will not be able to use the veto. If case moves from the joint commission of JCPOA to the UN Security Council, there begins the countdown to the automatic return of sanctions unless the UN Security Council voted to continue the termination of sanctions.

 

[TheImmortal]

Iran's commander in chief had the choice of building nuclear bombs, Instead he issued a bull$hit fatwa and declared nuclear weapons haram, The other sheikh handed over all of Iran's nuclear stockpile to the west practically killing the chance for Iran to be a nuclear power. Akhonds are making Iran weak, They should answer for the situation that they created.

The issue with people like you is you don’t see past your nose.

Iran getting nuclear weapons has already been considered multiple times by the brightest minds of Iran. At the end of the day it was decided it wouldn’t advance the survival of the government.

Right now Iran is under sanctions, getting nuclear weapons will all but guarantee Iran will stay under sanctions for the foreseeable future even Russia/China would side with the world.

So how does Iran getting nuclear weapons provide it security? It will just bargain them away for sanctions relief in the end. There is not a scenario where Iran gets to keep its nuclear weapons because then Saudi Arabia will want them, Egypt will want them, and Turkey will want them. The West knows this hence why they are teaching Iran a lesson so every other brown person in Middle East sees what will happen if you try to get nukes.

So no, nukes will not help Iran get away from sanctions. The best course of action is one where a democratic president comes into power in the US and returns to nuclear deal. Now that could take 1 year or another 4 more years.

But nuclear weapons will not save Iran from crippling sanctions nor will it stop Israel and US from pushing back at Iranian expansion. Russia has had nukes since post WW2 and NATO has been pushing its influence back inside its borders since the collapse of Soviet Union.

Only thing that nukes will help with is a land invasion of Iran to overthrow the regime. But the possibility of a land invasion of Iran is so remote.

 

[Navigator]

The other sheikh handed over all of Iran's nuclear stockpile to the west practically killing the chance for Iran to be a nuclear power.

To be honest, there everything is reversible on uranium enrichment. Iran indeed handed over most of stockpiles of enriched uranium acc to JCPOA, but instead, it received new uranium concentrates (so called Yellow cake) from Russia. Therefore, in the case of the quick installation of all old and new centrifuges, Iran after this can quickly not only restore old stocks, but also exceed them. The performance of the new Iranian centrifuges is several times greater than that of the old IR-1.

 

[Sineva]

Hey, take a look what i've found. I wonder what it looks like...an air war without air fields...a funny website...

https://www.aerosociety.com/news/the-iranian-air-force-unexpectedly-sharp-teeth/

I`d say the writer is still evidently fixated on the old ww2/cold war air power heavy doctrine and imagines for some strange reason that the us would attempt to employ some sort of desert storm/iraqi freedom style "shock and awe" air power campaign scenario against iran which would revolve entirely around air battles,as though irans missile forces and their recently demonstrated capabilities didnt even exist or would just sit back and allow them to do this without firing a single shot at the bases that any us air campaign would quite literally depend upon to have any hope of viability never mind actual success.Indeed rather strangely the only reference he makes to irans missile forces is that diego garcia is beyond their reach![LOL!].Personally I think that the absence of any reference to iranian missile power is actually pretty telling on his part.I did have to chuckle tho at his assertion that "Whatever success local industry might have achieved, keeping the legendary Tomcat flyable in any meaningful combat sense with no assistance from the OEM is probably impossible."....Yeah!...,sure buddy!.Whatever you say.....
To be honest my first thought when I started reading this was that it was some old article written way waaay back in the very early 2000s,so you can imagine my surprise when I realised that this was only written a little over a week ago,bizarre.....

 

[925boy]

well agreed but in other hand Zarif just said if Europeans go ahead with sanctions Iran will leave NPT soooo Europeans have to think about that too, i think Europeans will wait Trump out, but as you said at this point anything could happen



Iran's foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif warned that the country would leave the five-decade international treaty that prevents that spread of atomic weapons if its alleged violations of the 2015 nuclear deal were brought before the United Nations Security Council.



https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...reaty-missile-non-proliferation-a9291696.html

If Iran leaves NPT, China and Russia will support sanctions because exiting NPT will make Russia and China think Iran has "gotten out of control".....literally.

 

[Philosopher]

If Iran leaves NPT, China and Russia will support sanctions because exiting NPT will make Russia and China think Iran has "gotten out of control".....literally.

I respectfully disagree. We can see already that despite Iran significantly reducing its commitment sto the JCPOA , Russia and China still support Iran. Why? because they know precisely why Iran is doing it. If Iran leaves the NPT, they will once again understand the reason behind it. They may make statements like "we want all parties to return to negotiations etc", but I do not see them putting sanctions on Iran. The dynamics of the world has changed from the time those two nations sanctioned Iran. Today, both Russia and China appreciate Iran's anti-American role and the importance of Iran to them. They know fully well that if Iran changed into a pro-western system, it will be hit to them. I might be wrong of course, but I have seen no hints that either of those nations is willing to go with sanctions on Iran again.

 

[925boy]

No, you are wrong. In the case of the JCPOA, any side can unilaterally snap back sanctions. The put this in the UNSC on purpose so one country could not VETO.

But how can EU snapback sanctions due to Iranian noncompliance that was triggered in the FIRST PLACE by blockhead DUMB TRUMP's multiple violations of it??
Its like charging someone who kills someone else by self defense/ protecting themselves with murder? make that make sense.
US violated and neutralized the JCPOA. lets get that clear. even you @TheImmortal before you come her and start handing down sentences like a judge you have to agree that US is the main violator of the JCPOA so every destabilization of the content of that agreement US is mostly responsible for it! simple.

 

[Philosopher]

But how can EU snapback sanctions due to Iranian noncompliance that was triggered in the FIRST PLACE by blockhead DUMB TRUMP's multiple violations of it??

Because both EU and the US are ultimately on the same boat when it comes to Iran. Just a game of good cop bad copt at the moment.