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The UN sanctions will be lifted next year and most likely, from everything I've heard, Iran will be purchasing Russian made jets with technology transfers, most likely SU-30 models.

Both China and Russia will be willing however it has to be a large order, atleast 100-200 jets. any less than 100 and I don't see it happening, it wouldn't be worth the sanctions, reprocussions from the USA.

Iran should also make sure not to pay a penny until they receive the product. They have been let down way too many times in the past.

Honestly Iran really has way too many different kinds of jets. I understand that after the revolution, because of sanctions, that Iran had to be resourceful. I also understand that during the 1st Gulf war (not Iran-Iraq war) Iran received several jets from Iraq. However Iran REALLY needs 100-200 brand new multirole fighter jets. Yes indeed Iran really needs to get rid of some of its older jets. The F-14's, F-4's, Mirages, F-7's, SU-22s, SU-24s, SU-25s. I mean just the sheer variety of fighter jets is mind boggling and surely costs a fortune to maintain.

I would personally like to see at least 100 SU-30 jets. The SU-30 is twin seat jet, the SU-35 is a single seat derivative. Both are optimized variations of the SU-27 I believe. So perhaps 50x quantity of the SU-30, 50x quantity of the SU-35. Also 50x quantity of the SU-57's would be a nice addition as well, although I suspect that's only wishful thinking.

Iranian officials have mentioned their interest in purchasing tanks as well. Considering the Karrar program, I'm not sure what they would be referring to ? Perhaps some vital parts for the Karrar like new cannons, engines, powerpack ? I'm not sure, however I would really love to see Iran sign an agreement with Russia to acquire the T-14 Armata. If Iran were to go ahead with the plan to build 500-800 Karrar tanks and then add 200-500 Armata tanks, that would be excellent. Of course we all know that Russia needs investment in that tank since the procurement is going along slowly. Anyways, yes Iran has to get rid of its older stock of tanks, including Chieftains (which actually looked pretty good in a recent exercise, but they're much too old and have to go), M48/M60's (perhaps keep some Tiam variants around for another 10 yrs??) The T-74 Safir variants of the T-50/T-60 tanks are also over 20 yrs old, perhaps another 10 years for the best leftovers ? The Zulfiqar tanks, some sources say Iran has a dozen or so, like I said if they have a dozen of them in working order, perhaps 10 years at the most or put them into a museum ?

Helicopters, Iran needs to upgrade its fleet. I like the Toophan 2 variant however I don't think that it's ever been mass produced ? The Shahed 285 is a decent light / scout helicopter but not an option for a frontline helicopter. The Shahed 215 would be great if it were ever actually produced, however we are yet to see a prototype. Iran has a wide variety of various helicopters for various roles and most of them are aging. I've heard talk of Iran and Russia working on co-producing helicopters, however so far nothing. Russia would be a great source for purchasing large fleets of helicopters, however it's not clear whether Iran wants to purchase Russian models with technology transfers or build their own with some Russian assistance, Russian engines/ parts ? Personally I believe that Iran could build helicopters on its own, it just requires the political will and some funding. A little help from Russia would not be a bad thing either.


UN sanctions are done in about a year, so they won't be a factor. Again, Iran has to purchase at the very least 100-200 jets for Russia or China to go through with the deal and be willing to deal with the harsh reaction from the USA / west.
 
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The UN sanctions will be lifted next year and most likely, from everything I've heard, Iran will be purchasing Russian made jets with technology transfers, most likely SU-30 models.

Both China and Russia will be willing however it has to be a large order, atleast 100-200 jets. any less than 100 and I don't see it happening, it wouldn't be worth the sanctions, reprocussions from the USA.

Iran should also make sure not to pay a penny until they receive the product. They have been let down way too many times in the past.

Honestly Iran really has way too many different kinds of jets. I understand that after the revolution, because of sanctions, that Iran had to be resourceful. I also understand that during the 1st Gulf war (not Iran-Iraq war) Iran received several jets from Iraq. However Iran REALLY needs 100-200 brand new multirole fighter jets. Yes indeed Iran really needs to get rid of some of its older jets. The F-14's, F-4's, Mirages, F-7's, SU-22s, SU-24s, SU-25s. I mean just the sheer variety of fighter jets is mind boggling and surely costs a fortune to maintain.

I would personally like to see at least 100 SU-30 jets. The SU-30 is twin seat jet, the SU-35 is a single seat derivative. Both are optimized variations of the SU-27 I believe. So perhaps 50x quantity of the SU-30, 50x quantity of the SU-35. Also 50x quantity of the SU-57's would be a nice addition as well, although I suspect that's only wishful thinking.

Iranian officials have mentioned their interest in purchasing tanks as well. Considering the Karrar program, I'm not sure what they would be referring to ? Perhaps some vital parts for the Karrar like new cannons, engines, powerpack ? I'm not sure, however I would really love to see Iran sign an agreement with Russia to acquire the T-14 Armata. If Iran were to go ahead with the plan to build 500-800 Karrar tanks and then add 200-500 Armata tanks, that would be excellent. Of course we all know that Russia needs investment in that tank since the procurement is going along slowly. Anyways, yes Iran has to get rid of its older stock of tanks, including Chieftains (which actually looked pretty good in a recent exercise, but they're much too old and have to go), M48/M60's (perhaps keep some Tiam variants around for another 10 yrs??) The T-74 Safir variants of the T-50/T-60 tanks are also over 20 yrs old, perhaps another 10 years for the best leftovers ? The Zulfiqar tanks, some sources say Iran has a dozen or so, like I said if they have a dozen of them in working order, perhaps 10 years at the most or put them into a museum ?

Helicopters, Iran needs to upgrade its fleet. I like the Toophan 2 variant however I don't think that it's ever been mass produced ? The Shahed 285 is a decent light / scout helicopter but not an option for a frontline helicopter. The Shahed 215 would be great if it were ever actually produced, however we are yet to see a prototype. Iran has a wide variety of various helicopters for various roles and most of them are aging. I've heard talk of Iran and Russia working on co-producing helicopters, however so far nothing. Russia would be a great source for purchasing large fleets of helicopters, however it's not clear whether Iran wants to purchase Russian models with technology transfers or build their own with some Russian assistance, Russian engines/ parts ? Personally I believe that Iran could build helicopters on its own, it just requires the political will and some funding. A little help from Russia would not be a bad thing either.


UN sanctions are done in about a year, so they won't be a factor. Again, Iran has to purchase at the very least 100-200 jets for Russia or China to go through with the deal and be willing to deal with the harsh reaction from the USA / west.

UN sanctions will be lifted in this year (2020) actually in 9-10 month from now
 
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UN sanctions will be lifted in this year (2020) actually in 9-10 month from now
Thats only assuming that theres no "snap back" of un sanctions,and with the eurovassals triggering of the jcpoa disputes mechanism theres a very good chance that this will happen,at which point its anyones guess if the russians and chinese would continue to abide by the sanctions or not.
So I wouldnt count my chickens,or potential weapons purchases,just yet.
 
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Thats only assuming that theres no "snap back" of un sanctions,and with the eurovassals triggering of the jcpoa disputes mechanism theres a very good chance that this will happen,at which point its anyones guess if the russians and chinese would continue to abide by the sanctions or not.
So I wouldnt count my chickens,or potential weapons purchases,just yet.

well agreed but in other hand Zarif just said if Europeans go ahead with sanctions Iran will leave NPT soooo Europeans have to think about that too, i think Europeans will wait Trump out, but as you said at this point anything could happen



Iran's foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif warned that the country would leave the five-decade international treaty that prevents that spread of atomic weapons if its alleged violations of the 2015 nuclear deal were brought before the United Nations Security Council.



https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...reaty-missile-non-proliferation-a9291696.html
 
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Iran's foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif warned that the country would leave the five-decade international treaty that prevents that spread of atomic weapons if its alleged violations of the 2015 nuclear deal were brought before the United Nations Security Council.
This way Europeans can get ride of Trump!
 
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UN sanctions are done in about a year, so they won't be a factor. Again, Iran has to purchase at the very least 100-200 jets for Russia or China to go through with the deal and be willing to deal with the harsh reaction from the USA / west.

EU has raised the dispute mechanism, if UN sanctions are snapped back, these the arms embargo will remain I am afraid.
 
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Europeans are scared if they think Iran is not messing around they will then wait trump to get out of office

Trump is not going anywhere. Even Iran knows this is.

Nobody is scared of Iran and the NPT withdrawal declaration is an empty threat worth nothing.

Only an naive fool would believe China and Russia would sacrifice their economies for a ~5B dollar arms deal with Iran. China wipes its *** with 5B, that’s nothing to China.

Man the delusional thinking on this board is beyond help.

Iran has zero leverage right now other than empty threats and harassment. That’s what happens when you gave up Fordow and Arak in the first deal.
 
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This is not empty threats...North Korea left NPT in 2003 and now look at them...If illegal pressure continues, Iran will leave NPT meaning all IAEA inspectors will have to leave Iran and then nobody will know what happens in Natanz.

Regarding arms sales to Iran...secondary US sanctions against Russian or Chinese arms sellers worth nothing because these arms sellers do not have presence in US market

And China can itself impose sanctions against US companies if it wants.
 
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This is not empty threats...North Korea left NPT in 2003 and now look at them...If illegal pressure continues, Iran will leave NPT meaning all IAEA inspectors will have to leave Iran and then nobody will know what happens in Natanz.

Regarding arms sales to Iran...secondary US sanctions against Russian or Chinese arms sellers worth nothing because these arms sellers do not have presence in US market

And China can itself impose sanctions against US companies if it wants.

LOL Delusional thinking by yet another naive person.

Is your prime example for NPT withdrawal literally the hermit kingdom of North Korea? The country that is diverting all of its resources to the military? The country whose population is eating grass to survive? Sorry Iran is not North Korea and no one in Iran will tolerate eating grass. Look at what a small rise in gas prices did to that country.

With China negotiating a trade deal they are not going to jeopardize their economy for the Iran. US has way more leverage over China right now as Chinese exports to US far outweigh US exports to China.

The world has been advancing and Iran is still in the corner barking at how it will tear everyone apart. Nobody is taking it seriously.

So yes US will pressure Chinese/Russian government on any arms deal with Iran just like they have in the last 30 years. Have you had your head in the sand since 1990’s? All the arms deals that fall apart and that was without SANCTIONS! Open your eyes!

Any arms leaving China or Russia has to be approved by their respective governments with an export license!

So please stop talking crazy. Russia and China are not going to help Iran in any meaningful way.
 
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LOL Delusional thinking by yet another naive person.

Is your prime example for NPT withdrawal literally the hermit kingdom of North Korea? The country that is diverting all of its resources to the military? The country whose population is eating grass to survive? Sorry Iran is not North Korea and no one in Iran will tolerate eating grass. Look at what a small rise in gas prices did to that country.

With China negotiating a trade deal they are not going to jeopardize their economy for the Iran. US has way more leverage over China right now as Chinese exports to US far outweigh US exports to China.

The world has been advancing and Iran is still in the corner barking at how it will tear everyone apart. Nobody is taking it seriously.

So yes US will pressure Chinese/Russian government on any arms deal with Iran just like they have in the last 30 years. Have you had your head in the sand since 1990’s? All the arms deals that fall apart and that was without SANCTIONS! Open your eyes!

Any arms leaving China or Russia has to be approved by their respective governments with an export license!

So please stop talking crazy. Russia and China are not going to help Iran in any meaningful way.
Still leaving NPT is an option if US isolates Iran the way they isolated North Korea....You can not do nothing in times when they make you nothing to lose with bringing oil exports to zero....

Leaving NPT and expelling IAEA inspectors is Iranian response to all these sanctions

I Have no idea why you think Iran will be dutiful to NPT after all this illegal pressure
 
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So please stop talking crazy. Russia and China are not going to help Iran in any meaningful way.

I guess, u cant believe on them, at least not now. Unlike Europe, they won't backstab ( i hope so ) but they mean business.
 
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Sorry Iran is not North Korea and no one in Iran will tolerate eating grass. Look at what a small rise in gas prices did to that country.
LOL. By bringing Iranian oil exports to zero they made Iran a country that has nothing to lose just like North Korea.

With China negotiating a trade deal they are not going to jeopardize their economy for the Iran. US has way more leverage over China right now as Chinese exports to US far outweigh US exports to China.
If so, why US failed to isolate North Korea from China (with North Korea's exports to China being 4,5bln$)

USA can't simply have more leverage over China with Chinese exports outweighing US exports, because tariffs hurt USA as well, since tariffs are inflationary....US consumers are dependent on Chinese goods, and when Trump imposes tariffs on China this generates inflation in USA.....

USA is not going to hurt its own consumers and generate inflation in USA because of some Chinese weapons sales to Iran
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So trade wars with China and Chinese weapon sales to Iran and Chinese trade with North Korea are two separate issues....

Never forget that US consumers are very dependent on imports from China and tariffs are very inflationary.

So hardly US has leverage over such a superpower like China when it comes to weapon sales to Iran.

Rather, China can trade weapon sales to Iran for US banning weapon sales to Taiwan

Have you had your head in the sand since 1990’s? Open your eyes!
It is you who have to open your eyes. You are still sleeping in 1990? LOL.

In 1990 we lived in a world where USA was a global hegemon....Russia was weak and broken and Chinese economy was 14 times smaller than today.

US prevented weapon sales to Iran in 1990s. But Russia still supplied S-300 to Iran in 2010s even despite USA and Iran were about to go to war.

Maybe you didn't notice, but since 1990s, Russia invaded Georgia, annexed Crimea, entered Syrian Civil war and destabilized Ukraine--even despite US dislikes it-----and Russia itself is under heavy US sanctions today.

China turned into a superpower today and can not be pressured by USA (trade wars hurt US consumers as well). By 2030 China will have 4-6 aircraft carrier battle groups, 82 heavy destroyers, 37 SSN, 10 SSBN, 11 large amphibious assault ships
(compared to USA: 11 aircraft carrier, 84 cruisers and destroyers, 50 SSN and 15 SSBN, 9 large amphibious assault ships)

https://thediplomat.com/2019/02/predicting-the-chinese-navy-of-2030/

China plans it own presence in the Persian Gulf (from where it buys most of its oil) and Iran can be seen as ally of China

So please stop talking crazy. Russia and China are not going to help Iran in any meaningful way.
It depends on Russian or Chinese decision. They can sell weapons to Iran and US secondary sanctions will not stop it.....

Or they can make a deal with USA: US doesn't sell weapons to Poland and Ukraine--and Russia doesn't sell weapons to Iran---------or US doesn't sell weapons to Taiwan and China doesn't sell weapons to Iran.

By the way, I don't know what kind of weapon Iran needs to buy...In this times of economic hardships, Iran might not have hard currency to buy expensive foreign weapons especially when it produces most weapons on its own.

Why to spend hard currency to buy expensive foreign weapons, when Iran can produce its own tank, can make its own APC, IFV, MRAP--- has projects for heavy attack helicopters, UAV, cruise and ballistic missiles, trainer aircraft, air defenses, submarines, destroyers and anti-ship missiles?

The only thing Iran needs to buy is fighter aircraft.....And since US will have 1500 F-35s by 2030 and Israel will have 100 F-35s by 2030---the only aircraft Iran needs to buy is J-31 which will be available from 2025 anyway.

Iran can place an order for 100 J-31 for delivery from 2025 to 2035 and as part of the offset deal (which is usually 50% of the contract) demand some technology transfer (maybe 4th generation fighter's engine and avionics technology)
 
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The decision makers of Iran have managed to put us in a position that now North Korea is using our tension with the US to it's own benefit, These guys should answer for the disaster they created.
 
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The decision makers of Iran have managed to put us in a position that now North Korea is using our tension with the US to it's own benefit, These guys should answer for the disaster they created.
could you explain more;as we know US withdraw from jcpoa;all and sunderies know that US is the country who has the illegal petition in middle east and IRI can't be a slave like others.........
 
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