Iran is not going to waste billions in R&D to build a fighter that will not achieve parity with foreign fighters.
It makes sense for Iran to first secure a SU-30 license production or J-31 license production THEN move to creating its own domestic fighter later down the road.
If you look at China, decades ago they first started with license deals for jet engines and license deals for fighter jets. This allowed them to build the experience, knowledge and infrastructure for a domestic program.
First build a foreign jet and learn and build experience and improve it then move to a completely custom design when you are ready.
So if the decision is $5 Billion for a license production deal of SU-30 or J-31, Iran will take that over building it’s own fighter jet program for $1-2 Billion. One gives you certainly of the end result, while the other can lead to cost overruns and bottleneck issues and a plane that never lives up to expectations.
At this point I believe any domestic fighter jet is unlikely to happen till 2030’s possibly even longer. I am more pessimistic on Iran’s ability revamping the Air Force.
There are serious issues with your argument. On the surface, it seems reasonable enough, but the Devil lives in the details, smart fella that he is.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:United_States_fighter_aircraft_1950–1959
The 1950 decade is a good starting point.
When an aircraft is designed, it contains essentially the most
FUNCTIONAL pieces of technology that a country have. Not imported, meaning contracted out, but the technology that the country can sustain.
For example...You cannot have the hydraulics technology of 3000 psi without the supporting technology of petroleum, metallurgy, electronics, etc...etc...
You can buy the equipment that have hydraulics of 3000 psi, but you cannot maintain it yourself.
With the 1950s, there was virtually an explosion of fighter designs. Each design feature a prominent aerodynamic component like the unique delta wing of the F-102 and F-106, or the rocket like aerodynamics of the F-104, or the different intake locations of the F-4 and the F-8. We can assume that each design is essentially a production study of aerodynamics and full functionalities of the systems in each design. The 1950s was a crucial era in combat aircraft development.
With the 1960s and later, each decade produced considerably less designs but each design is more sophisticated in everything, from aerodynamics to electronics that produced fighters that are more versatile and higher lethality. A later design may not have the same capabilities as the older design, but would still be better in operation. For example...The F-16's top speed is lower than the F-4's, but overall, the F-16 is a much better platform.
The point here is that Iran
MUST spend billions in R/D no matter what. Iran must explore her current technology foundation and develop an R/D base even just to maintain licensed imported fighters. Only from that R/D base can Iran gain experience in experimentation and exploration into newer designs.
