I give you a scenario in which a F-5 makes sense and is cost effective:
- You need a CAS aircraft to support your ground forces with Mk.82 class firepower
- You operate within a IADS in high intensity warfare or else just counter insurgency
- You want to make use of swarm survivability should your IADS fail. A swarm with large HOBS IIR WVR AAM for self defense
- The concentration on CAS only and that with automated bombing system (SVP-24-like) or advanced targeting pod keeps necessary pilot kills at the very minimum. No dogfighting (HOBS for emergency), no race scenarios for pole positioning. Just high altitude bombing with a system that automatically releases the unguided bombs at the Fraktion of a second if you or the autopilot keeps course. Hence minimum pilot training.
- The CAS role in low threat environment means, max. speed is not critical
What do you get for that role?
Bear in mind the F-5 design is so cost optimized that it has 4 times (no guessing, fact) lower maintenance effort/cost and hence lifetime cost than a F-4
The F-4 on the other hand has a up to 3 times higher payload. While the F-5 is at least half and up to 3 times as expensive per airframe.
Do you want a F-5 with 5 Mk.82 within 50km of your requested strike position or a F-4 with 15 Mk.82 at 150km?
Iran needs something in the F-14 class to enter BVR high altitude competition with the enemy. Anything below it makes no sense, anything below it must work in a protected niche. Anything else can on the other hand make up much of the penalty by staying in the low altitude WVR game only if it comes to a engagement. There HOBS WVR missile and numbers are king.
So for now the situation could be following: In Iraq and Syria, the IRIAF operations against ISIS were just too expensive to sustain. Russians could do it, but not Iran. Using the F-4 and Su-24 fleet to low altitude dumb bomb ISIS or even using PGMs would let attrition and costs explode. F-5 operations would may be affordable but attrition would be too high.
The key to success of Russians was the following combination: Robustness and reliability/low-maintenance of the small (~30) fleet of aircraft plus the low attrition high altitude bombing capability provided by the SVP-24 keeping the cases where PGMs were absolute necessary (mobile targets e.g) at very minimum. SVP-24 proved itself in the ability to hit large target like apartment blocks and combined with heavy bombs gave high PK.
We have to expect that Irans military learned its lessons from this campaign. Same as Russians likely learned that a armed drone like the S-129 is most cost effective when it comes to small and mobile targets.
So we want to have such a capability and the F-5 would be a ideal platform for this.
I'm quite happy the IRIAF did not present a upscale F-5, F-18 like aircaft actually. It would look cool but be inefficient.
We need to pave the ground in terms of subsystems, then move to better engines and just after that try to come up with something with serious air to air capability (capability to operate in enemy airspace).
Whether it is a brute force heavy interceptor like the Mig-31 or a smart asymmetrical solution like my Qaher-313 concept. We still need to qualify subsystems such as FBW system, HMS/HMD, airborne x-band AESA/PESA (we have it already on the ground) plus weapon systems like a heavy WVR HOBS IIR AAM, anti-radar missile, air launched compact cruise missile.
PS: A twin seat F-5 also makes a good advanced supersonic trainer. So building 100 for the counter insurgency CAS role (Russian campaign) also provides a secondary role of having 100 supersoic trainers.
I would disagree with almost 50% of what you wrote here!
1st Lets talk about platforms before getting into the subsystems of platforms!
You say Iran needs CAS fighters to provide support for ground forces. Yes I could agree with that IF a threat of an invasion from a neighboring country whos Air Force wasn't that much stronger than Iran's existed Like Saddam or Saudi Arabia or Turkey! But such a threat does NOT exist so the only reason we would need CAS fighter for the immediate future would be for providing areal support for boarder areas.
Plus, against an Airpower like the U.S. that can hit you from all sides what exactly do you think the survivability of Iranian CAS fighters placed at bases within 200km of Iranian border would be????
And I'm not questioning that Iran needs a limited amount of CAS fighters and yes in a normal situation where the U.S. is NOT the main threat Iran would need 4-6 CAS fighters deployed across 14-16 bases on active status placed at bases near the boarder(within 150km) to provide Air support for Iranian boarder guards & cost guards(IRGC) (~64 Active + 24 for Training & not including storage)
So Yes your assessment that Iran would need about 100 low cost CAS fighter/Advanced trainer in a normal situation is correct BUT how many do we already have? How many CAS fighters has Iran spent time and money on?(Shafaq, Simorgh, Azarakhsh, Saegheh, Bavar, Kowsar1&2,.....) and finally we haven't been in a normal situation for the past 40 years!
Today we have ~ 60 active F-5/Saegheh/Azarakhsh/Simorgh + 20 Active J-7 + 10 Active Su-22 + handful of Su-25 + 40 or so Kowsar trainer/CAS fighter the Air Force has already ordered + storage.
And yes there is a need to upgrade & overhaul our current CAS fighter to increase survivability and there is a need to replace the Airframes of the older F-5's BUT there was no need to redesign the F-5 or build a new cockpit and canopy a simple upgrade would have been sufficient!
FYI this new fighter is bigger than the F-5 and it is an upscale version of the F-5 using Iranian J-85's OWJ engines although I'm also happy that they didn't add an additional useless stabilizers especially on the 2 seater version but if they had made it any bigger than this it wouldn't have been able to go supersonic with the owj engines at all!
As for subsystems according to the Airforce this fighter cost Iran about $16.5 Million USD per Aircraft and is equipped with at least $7Million USD worth of Avionics & subsystems and yet it doesn't even have an IRST or an Air refueling pod and there is NO excuse for that especially when you have already added 7 Million USD worth of subsystems to the platform!
(FYI the American T-38 was priced at $7 Million USD in 2016)
Don't get me wrong the various subsystems Iran has developed is astonishing BUT they are wasted on a CAS fighter such as this that doesn't have the ability to protect it's self against areal threats even within visible range nor the situational awareness and sensor capability needed to see the threats that are coming at it or the range needed to take full advantage of its advanced avionics nor the payload capacity needed to make the subsystems cost effective.....
And in Syria one of the MAIN reason the Russians could afford dropping so many bombs was mainly due to their bombers!!!!!!!!!! Do you know how many F-5's fighter variants Iran would have needed to deploy and how many sorties they would have needed to fly and how many millions of dollars worth of Air Defense equipment would have been needed and how many maintenance crew and facilities on the ground would have been needed..... to simply drop half the ordinance the Russians dropped using their larger bombers and strike aircraft alone???
So you got that backwards my friend because using CAS fighters to accomplish even half of what the Russians did would NOT have been cost effective AT ALL! Where as if we had just 1 supersonic bomber we could have dropped a large number of low cost ordnance at least in norther Syria and gotten out before the Israelis could intercept them!!!!!
You say the maintenance cost of an F-4 is 4 Times higher than an F-5 that is absolutely correct BUT in terms of capability 1 F-4 is worth far more than 4 F-5's!
How many Mk.82 do you think an F-5 can deliver to a target located 400km from it's base vs how many Mk.82 do you think an F-4E can deliver to that very same location??
What is the sensor capability and situational awareness of an F-4 as appose to an F-5? And which do you think has far greater survivability?
EVEN IN TERMS OF PROVIDING cover for your ground forces on your own territory near the boarder in an all out war what exactly are the chances of an F-4 detecting an enemy F-15 on an intercept course as appose to an F-5? (And with the proliferation of 5th Gen fighter IRST become vital to increase situational awareness and knowing when to run sometimes is far more valuable than having the weapons needed for dog fights)
As for SWARM tactics which do you think is better an Aircraft that can deploy a swarm of air launched weapons or having to pay the cost of maintaining a fleet of over 2000 manned fighter jets.....
And Iran is a relatively large country and if you were to divide the country into 20 sections each section would be about the size of the UAE or Austria and dedicating 5 CAS fighters to each section would = 100 CAS fighters
Which means in a country the size of Iran CAS fighter will be utterly useless in an all out war and Iran doesn't really need to deploy anymore than 4-6 CAS fighter across 14-16 bases located within 150km of Iranian boarders
FYI Ballistic calculation is the minimum requirement for advanced 3rd gen & 4th gen fighter's weapon system and yes it take years of R&D and trial and error to develop and perfect but it is nothing new and it's an absolute minimum requirement for all fighters but ballistic calculation can only take you so far you would still need an optical, laser, GPS or an advanced INS solution for precision targeting! And they are far more of a requirement on the ordnance of lower payload CAS fighters than they are on larger bombers!
Because it's utterly absurd NOT to have them when you lack payload! what you want to spend $20,000 USD on jet fuel alone to get your fighter to a target with 2-4 A2G ordnance but you don't wanna spend an additional $5,000 USD per ordnance worth of computer hardware, software, gyro and optics to increase the chances of your ordinance actually hitting the target? It's absurd especially when your capable of producing the weapons yourself on an Iranian designed weapon system and we are not talking about buying overpriced American PGM when Iran is fully capable of producing them at a fraction of the price!
Got to go for now talk to you later....