KashifAsrar
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Here is another interesting assesment guys !!
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Kashif
Defiant Iran master of the nuclear tightrope
Sunday, September 10, 2006
Iran must be treated as a nuclear power and already a member of the Nuclear Club. According to Israeli intelligence, Iran will be able to make a nuclear weapon in two years, while the CIA in Washington estimates five to10 years. Iran insists that it is their right to go nuclear. They say they have obtained this technology and that they will not negotiate over this obvious right. Their project aims to 'produce low enriched uranium to generate electricity,' but the West suspects that Iran is bent on making atom bombs. If Israel is already a nuclear power, then why should not Iran be one, too?
Yüksel Söylemez
Iran must be treated as a nuclear power and already a member of the Nuclear Club. According to Israeli intelligence, Iran will be able to make a nuclear weapon in two years, while the CIA in Washington estimates five to10 years. Iran insists that it is their right to go nuclear. They say they have obtained this technology and that they will not negotiate over this obvious right. Their project aims to "produce low enriched uranium to generate electricity," but the West suspects that Iran is bent on making atom bombs. If Israel is already a nuclear power, then why should not Iran be one, too?
On Aug. 26 President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad inaugurated a heavy water plant in Arak in Iran, claiming Iran's nuclear activities are for "peace and justice," disregarding criticism from the West. The chemical formula for heavy water is D20. Instead of hydrogen, heavy hydrogen, which is called "deterium," is used. It is reported that Iranian-produced uranium can be treated in this heavy water plant, perhaps without foreign help.
Since the 1980s, and even before, during the reign of the late Shah Reza Pahlavi, Iran has been planning to be a regional power. Iran was relieved from Iraq and Afghan Taliban threats, thanks ironically to U.S. military intervention in both countries. As most analysts agree, in the Israel-Hezbollah war the only party that realized obvious political gain was Iran. It gained an advantage internationally and a position of strength, which at the moment may sound like an irony of history. Widespread anti-Americanism in the region, which is also on the rise in Turkey due to Bush policies and America's blind support of Israel whatever it does, whether over Palestine or Lebanon, is creating pro-Iranian sympathy in Turkey and in the region, which is a new phenomenon.
Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul went to Iran on a peace mission as a friend of Iran to urge them to respond positively and without delay, but to no avail. Iran's answer came on Aug. 26, but as expected was in wishy-washy terms of "No, to stop the uranium enrichment, but yes, to continue to negotiate." The West has been negotiating with Iran for the last six years, urging them to stop the uranium enrichment. Iran was again as adamant as it has been in the past, if not more so now.
Fuller and more biting sanctions will not impact the European economies but rather would be counterproductive as they are importers of Iranian oil.
http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=53670
Enjoy
Kashif
Defiant Iran master of the nuclear tightrope
Sunday, September 10, 2006
Iran must be treated as a nuclear power and already a member of the Nuclear Club. According to Israeli intelligence, Iran will be able to make a nuclear weapon in two years, while the CIA in Washington estimates five to10 years. Iran insists that it is their right to go nuclear. They say they have obtained this technology and that they will not negotiate over this obvious right. Their project aims to 'produce low enriched uranium to generate electricity,' but the West suspects that Iran is bent on making atom bombs. If Israel is already a nuclear power, then why should not Iran be one, too?
Yüksel Söylemez
Iran must be treated as a nuclear power and already a member of the Nuclear Club. According to Israeli intelligence, Iran will be able to make a nuclear weapon in two years, while the CIA in Washington estimates five to10 years. Iran insists that it is their right to go nuclear. They say they have obtained this technology and that they will not negotiate over this obvious right. Their project aims to "produce low enriched uranium to generate electricity," but the West suspects that Iran is bent on making atom bombs. If Israel is already a nuclear power, then why should not Iran be one, too?
On Aug. 26 President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad inaugurated a heavy water plant in Arak in Iran, claiming Iran's nuclear activities are for "peace and justice," disregarding criticism from the West. The chemical formula for heavy water is D20. Instead of hydrogen, heavy hydrogen, which is called "deterium," is used. It is reported that Iranian-produced uranium can be treated in this heavy water plant, perhaps without foreign help.
Two recent studies were published, one by the U.S. House of Representatives and the other by the prestigious Chatham House of London. Both agree on Iran's political rise in importance and influence against the superpower, the United States, in the Middle East and perhaps further afield, so much so that Iran claims to be a rival power against the United States, particularly against the heavy naked force of the U.S., especially in Iraq, Lebanon and Afghanistan. Iran uses the soft power tactic.Iran, as the metaphor goes, is playing a masterful chess game, while the United States is playing a poker game, full of bluffs.
Since the 1980s, and even before, during the reign of the late Shah Reza Pahlavi, Iran has been planning to be a regional power. Iran was relieved from Iraq and Afghan Taliban threats, thanks ironically to U.S. military intervention in both countries. As most analysts agree, in the Israel-Hezbollah war the only party that realized obvious political gain was Iran. It gained an advantage internationally and a position of strength, which at the moment may sound like an irony of history. Widespread anti-Americanism in the region, which is also on the rise in Turkey due to Bush policies and America's blind support of Israel whatever it does, whether over Palestine or Lebanon, is creating pro-Iranian sympathy in Turkey and in the region, which is a new phenomenon.
It was in June this year that the five permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany in the form of the European Union's Javier Solana solemnly presented a "Package of Incentives" to Tehran. Iran gave no clear or concrete reply to it. Then the matter was referred to the U.N. Security Council and on July 31, 2006, Resolution 1696 was adopted, urging Iran to stop the nuclear enrichment process and report back by August 31, 2006 or else face Chapter VII enforcement measures under Article 41 of the U.N. Charter.The rise of Iran as a regional power is seen as growing and its influence has spread "for the first time in 2,000 years beyond the Euphrates River," as one analyst remarked.
Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul went to Iran on a peace mission as a friend of Iran to urge them to respond positively and without delay, but to no avail. Iran's answer came on Aug. 26, but as expected was in wishy-washy terms of "No, to stop the uranium enrichment, but yes, to continue to negotiate." The West has been negotiating with Iran for the last six years, urging them to stop the uranium enrichment. Iran was again as adamant as it has been in the past, if not more so now.
Russia and China are against imposing economic sanctions against Iran, as they have energy and trade agreements with them. France says "no" to any further negotiations and the United States and the U.K. are drafting economic sanctions to be imposed theoretically in three stages, starting from minor mandatory sanctions such as a travel ban and limiting government contracts with Iranian enterprises to more wide-ranging sanctions later to hurt the Iranian economy.Iran bases its masterful chess game on the clashing interests and built-in divisions in the Security Council.
Fuller and more biting sanctions will not impact the European economies but rather would be counterproductive as they are importers of Iranian oil.
The United States is said to be split between the "doves" of the State Department and the "hawks" of the Pentagon and the White House, led by the vice president. If the United States rushes to the adoption and imposition of sanctions, the fragile alliance built up over the issue between the Security Council permanent members may be split and Iran's tactics aimed at dividing the Americans and the Europeans may work. Theoretically, if and when sanctions are imposed, this "may lead the United States to a slippery slope towards military action" because none of its allies believe that the sanctions will be effective.Iran is entrenched in its tactics, and perhaps quite rightly so, relying on the fact that sooner than later the Europeans will break ranks in the Security Council and beyond.
There is also hope that Iran is expected to agree to further negotiations leading to a "temporary suspension" of the uranium enrichment process as a diplomatic concession. This is the reason that the EU apparently wants more dialogue with Tehran. The EU has given Solana two weeks to renegotiate with Iran on Iran's 21-page reply of "yes and no." Solana will report back to Brussels on Sept. 15 and see if there is a change of heart in Iran or not. The West in general and the EU in particular have no interest in escalation before the next Security Council debate starts on what to do next.Does all this add up to more frustration in the Security Council and prove once more its impotency leading to an armed U.S. intervention of surgical strikes? Supposing it did, will these air strikes provoke a counter attack by Iran, and more specifically against Israel? How will the United States protect the security of the Straits of Hormuz through which all the oil tankers pass? How will Israel be able to defend itself against Iranian missiles? Will it not lead to a holocaust? All these facts should lead to the arguments in favor of a negotiated settlement being preferred to brute force.
http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=53670