Iranian Space program

[drmeson]

Zoljanah could be converted to a 4,000 KM BM if first stage is replaced with a solid fuel stage carrying let’s say a 500kg warhead.

Not a true ICBM strike capability if you cannot threatened the US mainland.

Already operational but with 3300-3700 KM range for 900-1000 KM apogee.

http://www.b14643.de/Spacerockets/Specials/Sejil-2_LRBM/index.htm

Not a true ICBM strike capability if you cannot threatened the US mainland.

> 5000 KM range means ICBM.

Striking US mainland does not matter.

 

[TheImmortal]

Already operational but with 3300-3700 KM range for 900-1000 KM apogee.

http://www.b14643.de/Spacerockets/Specials/Sejil-2_LRBM/index.htm



> 5000 KM range means ICBM.

Striking US mainland does not matter.

Estimates for a Zoljaneh converted into Missile are 4,000KM not 5,000KM+ targeting Europe with a 500kg warhead.

Not sure where you are calculating your numbers.

And Sejil-2 has a 2500-3000KM range depending on warhead. You are quoting old and speculative analysis.

 

[drmeson]

Estimates for a Zoljaneh converted into Missile are 4,000KM not 5,000KM+ targeting Europe with a 500kg warhead.

Not sure where you are calculating your numbers.

I was mentioning that to be classified as an ICBM, a ballistic projectile has to have a >5000 KM range. That's the criteria, not striking US which you regarded as "true ICBM strike capability". My comment had nothing to do with Zoljanah.

 

[drmeson]

And Sejil-2 has a 2500-3000KM range depending on warhead. You are quoting old and speculative analysis.

Sejjil-2 has nothing to do with the missie they intentionally showed/tested during the great prophet exercises. It is three-staged with separating RV/3rd stage with ~38 tons estimated weight. The third stage, Mr. Norbert Brugge thinks could be deployed Salman TVC for precision. I would trust him and other experts like Duncan Lennox over anyone else.

 

[TheImmortal]

Sejjil-2 has nothing to do with the missie they intentionally showed/tested during the great prophet exercises. It is three-staged with separating RV/3rd stage with ~38 tons estimated weight. The third stage, Mr. Norbert Brugge thinks could be deployed Salman TVC for precision. I would trust him and other experts like Duncan Lennox over anyone else.

Is this the ICBM you are talking about?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1352501710007250944

 

[drmeson]

Is this the ICBM you are talking about?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1352501710007250944

You are mixing it up.

Zoljanah-based ICBM is a "could be" case. It will get 5000 KM or whatever is pure speculation rigth now since such RV has not been deployed on it. Zoljanah is an SLV as of today.

Sejjil-3 or whatever you may call it, is an actual thing with three stages and has been tested/unveiled during the great prophet exercise which unbiased western experts estimated to be an all-solid three-staged MaRV-IRBM (not ICBM). It is 7-8 feet longer than Sejjil-2, and much heavier as well.

See the size and third stage difference, there is another difference as well if you can see it.

 

[TheImmortal]

You are mixing it up.

Zoljanah-based ICBM is a "could be" case. It will get 5000 KM or whatever is pure speculation rigth now since such RV has not been deployed on it. Zoljanah is an SLV as of today.

Sejjil-3 or whatever you may call it, is an actual thing with three stages and has been tested/unveiled during the great prophet exercise which unbiased western experts estimated to be an all-solid three-staged MaRV-IRBM (not ICBM). It is 7-8 feet longer than Sejjil-2, and much heavier as well.

See the size and third stage difference, there is another difference as well if you can see it.

I think your the one mixing it up. That’s a Sejil-2. Not a Sejil-3 ICBM.

I assume this is what you are referring to:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1350527562955583488

Would be highly unlikely Patsramesh would have missed a brand new missile that is 32 tons.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1474313887092817927

 

[SalarHaqq]

Yes. Seems so. The launch rate has to increase considerably though.

As I just realized, the Raisi administration has already achieved a launch rate twice as high as its predecessor.

If another launch takes place before August, we'll arrive at a staggering three times the frequency of the foregoing government. Therefore I should correct my initial assessment and suggest that they're seemingly eyeing thrice (rather than twice) the launch rate of Rohani's cabinet.

In an earlier discussion I attempted to establish a tally based on several online sources: https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/iran...ellite-into-space.732005/page-2#post-13497146

- - - - -

- - - - -

In other terms, a total of seven launches and launch attempts were accomplished during Rohani's eight-year tenure, including one instance of a SLV reportedly exploding on the launch pad. Which gives us an average rate of nearly one per year.

Whereas there've been two new launches since Raisi assumed office on 3 August 2021:

- 2021, Dec. 31 -- Iran launched a Simorgh rocket carrying "three research cargos into space". However, following the launch a defence ministry spokesman, Ahmad Hosseini, confirmed the mission had failed to put its three payloads into orbit after the rocket was unable to reach the required speed.

- 2022, Mar. 08 -- Iran reportedly its second “Nour-2” military satellite into 500 km orbit.

The Raisi administration over its first year of governance has therefore doubled the Rohani cabinet's launch rate, and is now set to triple it apparently.

When it comes to advancing Iran's space program, the contrast so far between the two governments has been real and sizeable too.

 

[Stryker1982]

Zoljanah could be converted to a 4,000 KM BM if first stage is replaced with a solid fuel stage carrying let’s say a 500kg warhead.

Not a true ICBM strike capability if you cannot threatened the US mainland.

If they want something of that range, they'd probably only be able to use Raafe as a first stage would be my guess, no other solid fuel engine of Iran's can produce enough thrust while also fitting on a TEL. I'd imagine such a platform would have to fit in a TEL, or very large silos.

They crossed an important threshold with that achievement.

 

[sha ah]

The KhorramShahr ballistc missile can reach 3000-4000 KM with a reduced warhead. It's based on the North Korean Hwasong-10, which has that reach with a smaller warhead. Now that was released a few years ago so Iran can likely hit targets as far away as 5000 KM. The next threshold that matters is 10,000 KM because that would enable Iran to reach the eastern seaboard of the United States.

You are mixing it up.

Zoljanah-based ICBM is a "could be" case. It will get 5000 KM or whatever is pure speculation rigth now since such RV has not been deployed on it. Zoljanah is an SLV as of today.

Sejjil-3 or whatever you may call it, is an actual thing with three stages and has been tested/unveiled during the great prophet exercise which unbiased western experts estimated to be an all-solid three-staged MaRV-IRBM (not ICBM). It is 7-8 feet longer than Sejjil-2, and much heavier as well.

See the size and third stage difference, there is another difference as well if you can see it.

 

[drmeson]

I think your the one mixing it up. That’s a Sejil-2. Not a Sejil-3 ICBM.

I assume this is what you are referring to:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1350527562955583488

Would be highly unlikely Patsramesh would have missed a brand new missile that is 32 tons.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1474313887092817927

Explain to me what criteria a missile has to pass to be called a new version of its predecessor? We know the following changes were noted in Sejjil during the Great Prophet exercises.

- New RV
- New Guidance system
- New Jet Vanes (Ghadr used graphite ones, This Sejjil uses hardened ones)
- Different launch trajectory
- Experts (Norbert Brugge) saying that by changing conventional RV to Ghadr like RV on Sejjil, the possibility exists of 3rd stage of Salman TVC turning Sejjil into an IRBM/borderline ICBM with a TVC MaRV.

Patsramesh himself agreed with the above information. An MaRV on Shahab-3 turned it into "Emad" but same done to Sejjil-2 will keep it Sejjil-2 ? You can call it Sejjil-2-Modified or Sejjil-3 or Sejjil-X, it was a new system. with Salman TVC it will reach the exact same height that Norbert estimated to be 20 m (longer than conventional Sejjil-2's 17.5 m). The weight will increase too.

And btw the above information originated from The International Institute for Strategic Studies report (page 17) in case anyone wants to read it. So we have Norbert Brugge, IISS, Duncan Lennox of Janes, Patsramesh, few others all agreeing that Sejjil-2 has been changed into a newer version.

 

[TheImmortal]

Explain to me what criteria a missile has to pass to be called a new version of its predecessor? We know the following changes were noted in Sejjil during the Great Prophet exercises.

- New RV
- New Guidance system
- New Jet Vanes (Ghadr used graphite ones, This Sejjil uses hardened ones)
- Different launch trajectory
- Experts (Norbert Brugge) saying that by changing conventional RV to Ghadr like RV on Sejjil, the possibility exists of 3rd stage of Salman TVC turning Sejjil into an IRBM/borderline ICBM with a TVC MaRV.

Patsramesh himself agreed with the above information. An MaRV on Shahab-3 turned it into "Emad" but same done to Sejjil-2 will keep it Sejjil-2 ? You can call it Sejjil-2-Modified or Sejjil-3 or Sejjil-X, it was a new system. with Salman TVC it will reach the exact same height that Norbert estimated to be 20 m (longer than conventional Sejjil-2's 17.5 m). The weight will increase too.

And btw the above information originated from The International Institute for Strategic Studies report (page 17) in case anyone wants to read it. So we have Norbert Brugge, IISS, Duncan Lennox of Janes, Patsramesh, few others all agreeing that Sejjil-2 has been changed into a newer version.

Yes, we can all agree they are trying to produce a more accurate warhead for Sejill which was still using its 2009 warhead design.

But you are implying by changing material on jet vanes and switching to an Emad like RV that the missile DOUBLED its range and is now classified as an ICBM? Zero chance.

You can’t merely change an RV and get that range extension even if you made the RV into a HGV and skipped at a lower static trajectory.

I have not see any article outside of what you are saying about this “Norbert bugge” person saying this is an ICBM. Petarames was merely talking about why Sejill doesn’t have an Emad like RV after all these years, never once made a comment about it being an ICBM or Sejill-3

 

[Mr Iran Eye]

Explain to me what criteria a missile has to pass to be called a new version of its predecessor? We know the following changes were noted in Sejjil during the Great Prophet exercises.

- New RV
- New Guidance system
- New Jet Vanes (Ghadr used graphite ones, This Sejjil uses hardened ones)
- Different launch trajectory
- Experts (Norbert Brugge) saying that by changing conventional RV to Ghadr like RV on Sejjil, the possibility exists of 3rd stage of Salman TVC turning Sejjil into an IRBM/borderline ICBM with a TVC MaRV.

Patsramesh himself agreed with the above information. An MaRV on Shahab-3 turned it into "Emad" but same done to Sejjil-2 will keep it Sejjil-2 ? You can call it Sejjil-2-Modified or Sejjil-3 or Sejjil-X, it was a new system. with Salman TVC it will reach the exact same height that Norbert estimated to be 20 m (longer than conventional Sejjil-2's 17.5 m). The weight will increase too.

And btw the above information originated from The International Institute for Strategic Studies report (page 17) in case anyone wants to read it. So we have Norbert Brugge, IISS, Duncan Lennox of Janes, Patsramesh, few others all agreeing that Sejjil-2 has been changed into a newer version.

Nice analysis! excuse General TheImmortal as he is still confused. He still thinks since that time that the Iranian missiles have not evolved.

 

[drmeson]

Yes, we can all agree they are trying to produce a more accurate warhead for Sejill which was still using its 2009 warhead design.

Thank you for agreeing that the new system showed was not the conventional Sejjil-2 that we have always known for the past 14 years. You were very staunchly calling it a conventional Sejjil-2 and now you are not.

But you are implying by changing material on jet vanes and switching to an Emad like RV that the missile DOUBLED its range and is now classified as an ICBM? Zero chance.

All false assumptions from you.

- Can you please provide evidence that I used the word ICBM? because I re-checked my posts and I never used that word for any Sejjil-Derivative. The word I used was an IRBM for a Sejjil with another stage (Salman TVC) which Norbert suggested based upon the fact that they have already changed its RV and they may do it again and I trust his pro-expertise. We do not even know the height, weight change and range of Sejjil with the new RV that we know it now has. We do not know what it would attain with another more powerful 3rd stage which we know IRGC has in its hands and they quite often use it (Salman) Norbert seems to think it can be around 3300-3700 KM. Again, I trust him, Duncan Lennox (Janes) who claimed that Sejjil-3 is on its way, IISS who were the first ones to declare the changes in a publication, Jeffery Lewis etc more than I trust someone on the forum.

- Sejjil-2's range is somewhere around ~2400 KM depending upon the warhead. Double that would mean 4800, please provide evidence that I said Sejjil now has a range of 4800 KM?

You can’t merely change an RV and get that range extension even if you made the RV into a HGV and skipped at a lower static trajectory.

The range can increase if the apogee increases and if the RV is powered by another stage. Intentions of changing RV and available tools (solid-fueled kick stages) are there.

I have not see any article outside of what you are saying about this “Norbert bugge” person saying this is an ICBM. Petarames was merely talking about why Sejill doesn’t have an Emad like RV after all these years, never once made a comment about it being an ICBM or Sejill-3

And again not even Norbert said it's an ICBM. You are now assuming claims from him too apparently. The only one who seems to be using that word quite often in this thread is you, starting from your own set criteria of "true ICBM capability only if it strikes mainland US".

Nice analysis! excuse General TheImmortal as he is still confused. He still thinks since that time that the Iranian missiles have not evolved.

Its internet afterall.

 

[OldTwilight]

USA would turn Iran into the worlds largest parking lot should you ever fire a single ICBM towards the US mainland.

well , beforehand , we will make sure that single ICBM turn USA to nuclear wasteland ...

Zoljanah is not a military missiles ... its purely for our space program ....